http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ln...x5quo1_500.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
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http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ln...x5quo1_500.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
Why, their offense is young and already decent and they have a ton of payroll with which to go after pitching. Royals head into the offseason with a little bit of legitimate hope for the first time in a long time.Quote:
Originally Posted by haveacigar
Hope everyone enjoyed their Strasmus.
An easy 5ip/2H/4k/0 runs looks good for a start back from injury.
I would enjoy it more if he was with the Yankees.Quote:
Originally Posted by CCamels73
JV with win #22.
V-Mart showing some power finally.
Fister on track.
It's a good time to be a Tigers fan.
CauseQuote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
Nah but seriously I don't think they'll be much better than 75 wins without a major payroll commitment to starting pitching. If they decide to bring in someone big time like CJ Wilson, though, then it would be a different story.
Payroll is extremely low. They have the ability to make several impact moves this offseason, b/c of both their low financial commitments and their large quantity of young players/prospects. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Royals sign a significant FA pitcher and make a huge trade for one. Don't know if they will be good moves or not, we'll see, but DM seems like he's going to make a move this offseason. The starting 9 going and bullpen are set. Pretty much the only thing on the agenda for DM will be bolstering the rotation..and he's got plenty of resources to do it. Hopefully he spends/trades wisely.Quote:
Originally Posted by haveacigar
Not sure what to think about Nyjer Morgan. He's fun to watch, the fans love him & he makes the game alot more intersting. On the other hand I can see his antics getting old really fast. They already are to me a little bit. I've heard him say he wants a long term deal in Milwaukee. No way is Melvin that stupid. I hope not anyway....
His twitter is awesome.
Yeah, but, they have exactly one starting pitcher right now that reasonably projects to be close to league average, and that's Felipe Paulino. Even if I give Bruce Chen all the credit in the world, that still leaves three other spots that have to be filled with above-average quality for them to make an impact. Duffy is probably going to take one, but he has a lot of work to do. Francis can masquerade as a 5th starter I suppose, but some of these guys are going to need to be replaced for them to be near .500. I don't know what kinds of trades they plan to make, but the FA list is pretty sparse.
Yeah. You can't go anywhere nowadays without seeing someone with the Tony Plush shirts.Quote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
Jeff Suppan!Quote:
Originally Posted by haveacigar
If the Brewers were not winning, I can't see a scenario in which you would enjoy him still.Quote:
Originally Posted by MichelleWie
But I have an obvious bias and see it one way.
Forget the antics. The guy is 30 years old, and has only reached even 500 PA in a season only twice, plus has been terribly inconsistant at the plate. That right there makes him someone you wouldn't want to give a long-term contract too, unless maybe he was a top-flight defensive catcher (who you don't expect to play 150 games a year anyway).Quote:
Originally Posted by MichelleWie
Yeah I definitely agree with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
Francis is more than a #5. 27th in FIP among AL starters with 100+ innings. He's a free agent though.Quote:
Originally Posted by haveacigar
2013 is still more likely for the Royals. Most of their minor league talent is hitters, but guys like Duffy, Montgomery and Lamb will have a chance to make the rotation
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index...1&mode=gameday
Dodgers v Nationals
1st inning
Gordon single
Loney double
Kemp fielder's choice, Gordon out at home
Rivera 2 RBI double
Miles ground out
Sands ground out
3rd inning
Gordon single
Loney single
Kemp fielder's choice, Gordon out at home
Rivera 2 RBI double
Miles groundout
Sands groundout
Francis is generally a good bet to underperform his FIP because he isn't good at stranding runners. I guess you could project him to be a #4 next year if you think he'll maintain his peripherals and regress upward, but he's still a back-end starter in a rotation that currently has no front-end guys. Lamb having TJS doesn't help any, and Montgomery has a lot of work to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
Francis career LOB% = 70.2Quote:
Originally Posted by haveacigar
League LOB% 2004-2011 (sans 2010) = 71.5
Prior to his injury he had a 71.3 LOB% compared to a league LOB of 71.1%
If you only take out last year, where he wasn't real good coming off of the injury (64 LOB%), he had a 70.8 LOB% compared to a league 71.4 LOB%
Semantics: No, he's not good (if good means better than average) at it, he's average at it.
Francis would still fit in fine in the rotation for the next year or two, eating innings. I still think 2013 is more likely for the Royals. That'll give Lamb, Montgomery, and Duffy another year to show what they've got so GMDM can plan accordingly.Quote:
I guess you could project him to be a #4 next year if you think he'll maintain his peripherals and regress upward, but he's still a back-end starter in a rotation that currently has no front-end guys. Lamb having TJS doesn't help any, and Montgomery has a lot of work to do.
2013 is probably still a stretch for Montgomery and especially Lamb. Duffy is the only one I'd project to be an above average pitcher by then. The Royals problem isn't pitching talent, just pitching youth. I think it's going to take them more than 2 years for the development curve to catch up. And while I think they'll be willing to bring in quality FA pitching, there just isn't very much of it.
I don't know what SPs are out there for trade, but I could see them getting into the James Shields fray. Problem is, if I'm a Royals fan, the idea of GMDM planning accordingly doesn't sound all that great.
In another forum a couple of guys make a thread talking about how the book and movie of Moneyball is ironic, because the A's suck now (sorry Rage).
As I go through the conversation, completely destroying what they think the book was about, I find out they never even read it.
So why the **** would you make a thread trying to disprove a subject you know absolutely nothing about!
HAC, you read it yet?
Quote:
Originally Posted by haveacigar
I have been talking about that myself.
And since I like both teams, whatever. But I don't think the Royals should try to add veterans yet. I feel their team needs to perform to the .500 level on their own before additional players are added for prospects.
I can see Friedman bending DM over on a trade for Shields though.
I made a proposal somewhere.
I believe it was David Lough, Chris Dwyer, Jeremy Jeffries, and Tim Mellville and maybe a utility player for Shields.
Which would be a butt raping, but it's probably what Friedman will want for Shields. I'm sure he would rather move Nieman or Davis instead.
Agreed.Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
If the team does come out next season and are playing around .500 and it's July and they could make a push, adding someone like Shields wouldn't be so bad. Otherwise, 2013 depending how everyone develops in 12 would be more wise.
I have really been impressed by Brewer fans reactions to Morgan.Quote:
Originally Posted by MichelleWie
That's pretty much the way it's been since the book came out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
I have never read Moneyball but it's no surprise that, given how it wrested baseball theory away from a bunch of ignorant meatheads, the meatheads would fumble in the dark in an attempt to fight back--but then not know what they are doing because of their meathead nature.
I wish the Tigers had Nyjer Morgan. Love his swag.
No team has more young, quality trading chips than the Royals. DM has already stated he was going to try and trade some of his prospects for a legit top of the rotation starter. Given that and some expected progress by the offense, which is absolutely loaded with young potential (though certainly they won't literally all work out)...I don't think .500 is as far off as it seems. I certainly am not saying 2012 is a contending year, but a near .500 record with contention in 2013 wouldn't surprise me. With the potential of the offense, the Royals just need average starting pitching to contend in the perennially weak AL-Central. If the Royals were in the AL East, yeah it would take a hell of a lot longer.Quote:
Originally Posted by haveacigar
EDIT: Also, the plan is to try both Aaron Crow and Greg Holland in the rotation next year. Holland has a decent chance to work out b/c he has good control of multiple pitches. Crow I am not optimistic about at all.
A third of the offense is guys that have no track record of MLB success having career years - Cabrera, Gordon, Francoeur. I believe Gordon has took a legitimate step forward and should be a very good player going forward, but I have no confidence in Cabrera and Francoeur and would not be the least bit surprised to see them turn back into pumpkins.Quote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
Another third is guys that can't hit (Escobar, Getz and whoever's catching).
Moustakas has been terrible but obviously has a ton of potential. He'll improve next year without a doubt. Hosmer and Butler, obviously, are good.
Overall, I'm not that optimistic about the offense next year, so I think they'll have another 65-70 win season, but I do think the Royals have a young core that could certainly contend within a 2-4 year window, though.
Giovatella will play 2nd instead of Getz. He can hit a little.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Exactly why I think it would be a major mistake to make a move for pitching now, when the team isn't ready.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
To potentially give up prospects to add a player that won't help the team contend. Even if everything went right for the Royals next year (and it never does for any team) they wouldn't be an 85 win team. So why give up potentially very valuable prospects for a guy that you would only have for so many years who is likely paid a higher salary to pitch in a window that isn't that large? Wait until the team is close, and then add one or two veterans.
When dude said they were a pitcher or two away, I got angry. I call myself a bit of a Royals fan (Cards first, then Rays, then Royals) and to think their self-evaluation says they are only a pitcher or two away knocks me out of my chair. They aren't. They are pretty far away still. This off-season get some cheap stop gaps, keep spending heavily on IFA and in the draft, and keep stockpiling the prospects. Once the team can play at or near .500 ball, then consider adding some guys. But to waste prospects because the team doesn't understand how to evaluate themselves would be a major shame.
My post from Aug 28th on the subject
http://forum.sportsmogul.com/showthr...33#post1570733
As a fan of another small market, you would like to have faith that the team would be decent enough to compete after yet another failed season. Though they are doing what they can, you are not going to drastically improve. It seldom happens, the last two teams to go from worst to first (off the top of my head) is the 2001 D'Backs and the 1998 Cubs. So sadly I see the Royals 2012 (and Oakland's) as eliminated before opening day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
I'm certainly not going to argue that both Frenchy and Cabrera are going to repeat their production...but they are 26 and 27 years old and have had decent seasons at the plate earlier in their careers. I don't think it is automatic that both of them turn back into pumpkins next year. Certainly a possibility. Also possible that both of them regress some, but still have okay seasons. Been worth 5.7 fWAR combined this season so far. I could see them combining for 3.5 or so fWAR next season, which would be okay. Also, I don't think it's fair to say Frenchy has no track record of success in MLB when this is only the third best season of his career. I know those two good seasons were in '05 and '07, but they still happened. I don't think he's this good, but it's possible he's better than the player he was the past three years as well. If 27 is the start of a player's prime, perhaps he has found something and can still provide a little value for a few seasons. Similar with Gordon, he was worth over 2 fWAR in each of his first two years in the league, and then he battled injury the next two seasons. I'd say being an average player your first two years in the league constitutes success. I think Melky is the only one having his first good year overall in his career.
..but Gordon, Butler, and Hosmer is a pretty damn promising chunk of a lineup. Giavotella is the 2B, not Getz. Salvador Perez has a lot of offensive potential, though he was rushed to the bigs b/c of his (supposedly) otherworldly defense. Moustakas is going to be a better hitter than he's shown. In this run environment, you don't need 9 good hitters to build a decent offense. The offense is 6th in the AL in runs scored, at last look, with many black holes in the lineup. 4th in BA, 5th in OBP. Some of those black holes have gone away..and Hosmer and Moose should both take steps forward this year. Lorenzo Cain is also in AAA, ready to take over at any moment.
I don't see any possible way you can be pessimistic about the offense next year. The regressions of Cabrera and Francouer are likely to be more than offset by the improvement of the plethora of young players. No, they aren't going to match the Yankees offense, but I don't see any reason to expect the offense to regress.
I didn't say we were a pitcher or two away. I said we could be an okay team next year (78-79 wins) and that DM was probably going to make a move for a couple pitchers, due to his huge payroll and prospect resources. I am not, by any means, saying the Royals are ready to contend. The offense will be solid next year, but the pitching isn't near good enough yet. I am just saying the Royals are going to be a little better than usual next year, that's all. I'm not advocating making major moves in the FA market, I just think that is what DM is going to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
I know you didn't say it, DM said it. See my quote?Quote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
http://www.kansascity.com/2011/08/27...g-to-deal.html
It sounds like that is exactly what he is going to do, and I think it's a pretty major mistake.
Oh, by "dude," I thought you were talking about me from earlier in the thread, not DM.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
Yes, he clearly seems like he's antsy to make a move. I'm not going to call it stupid before I find out exactly what the deal is..but it's definitely risky for sure. I'd rather him make a trade than make a big FA deal.
I feel like he just has poor introspective on the team, or he simply doesn't know how to build a team correctly.Quote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
The farm system is bad ass though (obviously)
and sorry for the confusion.
If there is anything he should do, get one year stop gap pitchers that don't cost much, hell even take some injury risk players like a Rich Harden or Eric Bedard. But they don't need to commit talent or multiple years to anyone until the team's core is ready to compete for several years. IMO.
:(Quote:
General manager Ned Colletti believes the Dodgers' recent improved play is the result of a more consistent offense since the addition of Juan Rivera and an indication that the club does not need a major offseason overhaul.
I predict the Dodgers sign Rivera for 3 years and $36 million
Quite the day for MLB playoff races