* * Official 2011 MLB Discussion Thread * *

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Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989

Dear Jim Tracy,

Hello. How are you? I am well. Listen, I have a quick question for you. I know you want to hold on to Huston Street for the 10th...or 11th or whenever you think your team will give you the lead. But look, Felipe Paulino has given up two straight walk off hits. So I mean, maybe...just maybe you could go to Betancourt or Street instead of Paulino. Because, I mean, why not? Couldn't be worse. Maybe you lose the game in the 15th inning because you used Street in the 9th. But hey, at least you didn't let FELIPE MOTHER ****ING PAULINO give up his 3rd straight walk off hit. So my question to you is, why do you hate me? Why do you manage your bullpen so poorly that it rips my heart out every night, killing my hopes and dreams as I cry softly into my pillow as we drop yet another one run game to the ****ing San Fran-****ing-cisco Giants. Why Jim, Why?

Cheers.

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http://files.sharenator.com/U_Mad_Br...428-137106.jpg

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Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989

Dear Jim Tracy,

Hello. How are you? I am well. Listen, I have a quick question for you. I know you want to hold on to Huston Street for the 10th...or 11th or whenever you think your team will give you the lead. But look, Felipe Paulino has given up two straight walk off hits. So I mean, maybe...just maybe you could go to Betancourt or Street instead of Paulino. Because, I mean, why not? Couldn't be worse. Maybe you lose the game in the 15th inning because you used Street in the 9th. But hey, at least you didn't let FELIPE MOTHER ****ING PAULINO give up his 3rd straight walk off hit. So my question to you is, why do you hate me? Why do you manage your bullpen so poorly that it rips my heart out every night, killing my hopes and dreams as I cry softly into my pillow as we drop yet another one run game to the ****ing San Fran-****ing-cisco Giants. Why Jim, Why?

Cheers.

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lol

OK, I do realize that Bautista didn't play today, which makes the Jays lineup look worse than it already is, but man, outside of Lind, there is NOBODY hitting on that team. Leadoff man Yunel Escobar has an OBP of .311, Corey effing Patterson is hitting second, and Mike McCoy was in the lineup today, who is just awful.

OMG...I sat Verlander on the bench, in the league im in last place in....and he throws a nono.

Jesus f***ing christ. I thought, At Toronto, where the ball flies out from someone like AGonz 20+ times...with reigning HR king Bautista, and Lind finally getting on a good streak...I thought, let's sit him one game.

effity effing eff eff efff ffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

OMG...I sat Verlander on the bench, in the league im in last place in....and he throws a nono.

Jesus f***ing christ. I thought, At Toronto, where the ball flies out from someone like AGonz 20+ times...with reigning HR king Bautista, and Lind finally getting on a good streak...I thought, let's sit him one game.

effity effing eff eff efff ffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff

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A) Bautista was out of the lineup. Shoulda known that.

B) That's what you get for sitting an ace. There's no reason to sit Verlander. Ever.

AOW's thought process:

"Hmm you know Verlander is one of the best players in baseball and in both starts against the Yankees he only gave up 3 ER and struck out 8....Nah wins and strikeouts suck so I'm just gonna herp a derp him over to the bench and go with Mr. derpee derp instead."

Welcome back Jose Bautista!!!

Oh btw, Free dropped a sick burn on AOW on my facebook. Too bad AOW can't see it.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

AOW's thought process:

"Hmm you know Verlander is one of the best players in baseball and in both starts against the Yankees he only gave up 3 ER and struck out 8....Nah wins and strikeouts suck so I'm just gonna herp a derp him over to the bench and go with Mr. derpee derp instead."

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Oh how this gave me a nice chuckle.

Jo-Jo Reyes is so crappy, it is hilarious.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz1Lg9V3Fkh

From John Heyman

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It's early in Ryan Howard's $125 million contract. But Howard, who has a league-leading 29 RBIs, is worth every penny so far.

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1. The extension hasn't started yet
2. RBI's to justify a ridiculous contract is even less justifiable.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz1Lg9V3Fkh

From John Heyman




1. The extension hasn't started yet
2. RBI's to justify a ridiculous contract is even less justifiable.

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2008: .366 wOBA / 120 wRC+
2009: .393 wOBA / 140 wRC+
2010: .367 wOBA / 125 wRC+
2011 (so far): .360 wOBA / 123 wRC+

In that time: 10.7 fWAR total in 2164 PA

or 3.3 fWAR/675 PA (~AVG # of PA from 2008-2010) * ~$5 Mil/WAR = $16.5 Mil value at the most

This doesn't even take into account that as Jeffy notes: a) the deal hasn't started yet and b) he's going to decline as the deal covers his age 32 through age 36 seasons. Gonna go out on a limb and say that the Phillies won't be picking up that 2017 (age 37) season option, and that in the end he won't have been worth this ridiculous overpayment...Call it a hunch. ;) Oh, and nothing Heyman says surprises me anymore. Ugh.

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

2008: .366 wOBA / 120 wRC+
2009: .393 wOBA / 140 wRC+
2010: .367 wOBA / 125 wRC+
2011 (so far): .360 wOBA / 123 wRC+

In that time: 10.7 fWAR total in 2164 PA

or 3.3 fWAR/675 PA (~AVG # of PA from 2008-2010) * ~$5 Mil/WAR = $16.5 Mil value at the most

This doesn't even take into account that as Jeffy notes: a) the deal hasn't started yet and b) he's going to decline as the deal covers his age 32 through age 36 seasons. Gonna go out on a limb and say that the Phillies won't be picking up that 2017 (age 37) season option, and that in the end he won't have been worth this ridiculous overpayment...Call it a hunch. ;) Oh, and nothing Heyman says surprises me anymore. Ugh.

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On another forum, I made a thread asking which extension was the most reckless, Tulo, Braun, Howard.

Howard won the vote easily.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

On another forum, I made a thread asking which extension was the most reckless, Tulo, Braun, Howard.

Howard won the vote easily.

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Yay logic and sound reasoning! ;)

Although I think giving Braun a 5 year extension that doesn't start until 2016 is a bit reckless. One of the worst parts of Howard's contract is the $10 Mil buyout. "Here's $10 Mil. Please go away." WTF? :confused:

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

Yay logic and sound reasoning! ;)

Although I think giving Braun a 5 year extension that doesn't start until 2016 is a bit reckless. One of the worst parts of Howard's contract is the $10 Mil buyout. "Here's $10 Mil. Please go away." WTF? :confused:

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"Here's $10 million that we don't owe you until 2017"

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

Yay logic and sound reasoning! ;)

Although I think giving Braun a 5 year extension that doesn't start until 2016 is a bit reckless. One of the worst parts of Howard's contract is the $10 Mil buyout. "Here's $10 Mil. Please go away." WTF? :confused:

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From Fangraphs

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Almost exactly one year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five year contract extension that was, shall we say, not exactly well thought of. The Phillies already had their slugging first baseman under team control for the current season and an additional one, but chose to give him a long term deal that locked up his age 32-36 seasons anyway.

Little did we know that this extend-a-guy-who-doesn’t-need-an-extension idea was going to turn into a full fledged trend. The Rockies took it to another level over the winter, giving Troy Tulowitzki a six year deal that, combined with his current contract, will keep him in Colorado through 2020. While I thought that deal exposed the Rockies to a lot of risk, Tulowitzki is in the best-player-in-baseball conversation, and locking him up now did give them a chance to keep an elite player around – an option that might not have been possible had they waited for him to have another MVP type season or two.

Now, we have the Ryan Braun extension, which borrows some from each of the first two moves. Like Tulowitzki, the Brewers chose to sign Braun through 2020, despite the fact that he was already under contract through 2015. Like Howard, they locked up a big time power hitter’s age 32-36 seasons. Braun simply isn’t as good as Tulowitzki and he got nearly the same amount of money, so it’s easy to say that this extension for Milwaukee is worse than the deal Colorado made. But, is it worse than the roundly mocked deal that Philadelphia made?

Braun and Howard are actually pretty similar players. They’re both bat-only players who derive all of their value at the plate, but are good enough at pounding the ball to still be worthy of their All-Star selections. Braun has been worth between +4 to +5 wins each of the last three seasons; Howard’s value is less consistent but averaged in that range as well. Braun walks a bit less and strikes out a bit less, but their BB/K ratios are almost identical. Braun is a better athlete, but there’s a pretty good chance he’ll also be a first baseman by the time this extension kicks in, especially with Prince Fielder’s inevitable departure from Milwaukee.

Braun is a better player than Howard today, but the relevant comparison is Howard now to Braun in 2014, when he would have been at the same point in age and proximity to free agency when the Phillies locked up their first baseman. Will Braun still be a +4 win player in three year’s time?

It’s possible, certainly. You could point to guys like Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis, who were similarly valuable through age 27 but then took a step forward in their age 28 and 29 seasons. Braun is in the prime of his career, and it’s entirely within reason that his hot start to the season could be the start of his best year to date. However, we could also point to the likes of Jason Bay (an eerily similar player to Braun in terms of skillset), Carlos Lee, and Magglio Ordonez as warnings of this kind of skillet peaking early. Bay and Ordonez have had injuries, but that’s part of the risk of a long term deal – you don’t know what kind of physical condition a player will be in down the line.

At least the Phillies had a reasonable expectation of Howard being relatively healthy when the extension they gave him kicked in. They were only 18 months away from him reaching free agency, so the chances of a catastrophic problem limiting his value were greatly reduced. The Brewers need Braun to get through three more seasons injury free before they could be at the same point of confidence in his mid-30s health.

While the Phillies overvalued Howard and his contributions, at least their deal had a triggering motivation of nearing free agency – why the Brewers decided to lock up Brauns’ age 32-36 seasons now is something of a mystery to me. They inherited a mountain of risk in order to sign away years that, historically, you don’t really want to be paying big money for anyway. The odds of Braun being better than an average player over the life of his new extension aren’t very good, so the Brewers need to hope that the going rate for an average first baseman jumps to $20 million per year in a few years.

I’m going to call that unlikely. Just based on the information they had at the time and the relative pressure they were under to make a deal, I think I’m forced to say that this extension makes even less sense than the Howard deal did for the Phillies. Locking up a star shortstop like Tulowitzki is one thing, but paying well in advance for the decline years of a bat-only player is just not a very good idea.

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Did Dan Uggla always look like the f***ing Michelin Man? I know he's always had a stocky build, but I don't remember him being this bulky. The dude's got tree trunk arms FFS.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Jo-Jo Reyes is so crappy, it is hilarious.

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http://jaysjournal.com/2011/05/04/ja...cutive-starts/

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I really want to pull for Reyes. Knowing that he probably earned himself one more look, it provides him with at least one more chance to get his 1st win after not obtaining 1 win in his last 24 starts made in MLB. An incredible stat to say the least.

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Yeah you can't really say someone is worth every penny when they aren't actually earning those pennies yet.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Jo-Jo Reyes is so crappy, it is hilarious.

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While I'm not a huge fan of Jo-Jo, I'm certainly not going to hold it against him that the Blue Jays offense has stunk it up the last two games. 2 runs (Jose Bautista two-run HR in second at bat back from injury) on 7 hits in two games is not going to earn a team even a split of said two games all that often. That was a decent 5th starters start yesterday, and it was certainly better than some of the turds he's laid over the first 5+ weeks.

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

2008: .366 wOBA / 120 wRC+
2009: .393 wOBA / 140 wRC+
2010: .367 wOBA / 125 wRC+
2011 (so far): .360 wOBA / 123 wRC+

In that time: 10.7 fWAR total in 2164 PA

or 3.3 fWAR/675 PA (~AVG # of PA from 2008-2010) * ~$5 Mil/WAR = $16.5 Mil value at the most

This doesn't even take into account that as Jeffy notes: a) the deal hasn't started yet and b) he's going to decline as the deal covers his age 32 through age 36 seasons. Gonna go out on a limb and say that the Phillies won't be picking up that 2017 (age 37) season option, and that in the end he won't have been worth this ridiculous overpayment...Call it a hunch. ;) Oh, and nothing Heyman says surprises me anymore. Ugh.

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Even if everything else about it made sense (which isn't the case) the Heyman comment is still nuts because performance in (roughly) 1/6 of a season doesn't really mean anything. Right now, Matt Holliday is hitting .398, but does anyone expect a 31 year old player whose best previous batting average was .340 to hit .398 in a full season?

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Originally Posted by dps

Even if everything else about it made sense (which isn't the case) the Heyman comment is still nuts because performance in (roughly) 1/6 of a season doesn't really mean anything. Right now, Matt Holliday is hitting .398, but does anyone expect a 31 year old player whose best previous batting average was .340 to hit .398 in a full season?

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Yep.

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

While I'm not a huge fan of Jo-Jo, I'm certainly not going to hold it against him that the Blue Jays offense has stunk it up the last two games. 2 runs (Jose Bautista two-run HR in second at bat back from injury) on 7 hits in two games is not going to earn a team even a split of said two games all that often. That was a decent 5th starters start yesterday, and it was certainly better than some of the turds he's laid over the first 5+ weeks.

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He still sucks though, right?

5 was a popular number for AL teams yesterday
http://mit.zenfs.com/121/2011/05/fiveruns.jpg

This Ryan Spilborghs thing has gotta stop.

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Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989

This Ryan Spilborghs thing has gotta stop.

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que?

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Originally Posted by Kobie

que?

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I'm just getting tired of seeing him. Him and his .157/.227 line

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Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989

I'm just getting tired of seeing him. Him and his .157/.227 line

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I don't know you are complaing the Mets have scott hairston, ching lung hu, and willy harris on their bench who wish they could hit that well.

Oh God, now the most harrowing 6 outs of my life begins. Please don't blow another one bullpen...

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Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989

Oh God, now the most harrowing 6 outs of my life begins. Please don't blow another one bullpen...

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are you forgetting who you are playing...

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Originally Posted by ewing6

I don't know you are complaing the Mets have scott hairston, ching lung hu, and willy harris on their bench who wish they could hit that well.

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speaking of willy harris, getting cs down by 1 with 1 out in the 9th, i hate him so much

I hate Tulo so much.

5-0 vs. The Mutz.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

He still sucks though, right?

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As you can see from tonight's game, he's far from the only thing that sucks in Blue Jay Land right now. There's a whole lot of players on this team that have laid giant turds so far.

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

As you can see from tonight's game, he's far from the only thing that sucks in Blue Jay Land right now. There's a whole lot of players on this team that have laid giant turds so far.

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Truth.

I'm a little annoyed that Leyland is too stubborn to walk Bautista every time.

Bad Centerfielder is Bad.

What a horrible route taken by Corey Patterson on V-Mart's double.

Yeah I noticed that too. Very odd route.

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Originally Posted by gosensgo101

Bad Centerfielder is Bad.

What a horrible route taken by Corey Patterson on V-Mart's double.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Yeah I noticed that too. Very odd route.

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The utterly f***ing sad part of it is, that's not the first time he's done that this year. It's about the fifth in 35 games, not all of which has he played CF in. I'm no sports psychologist, but if I were, my diagnosis would probably be something along the lines of "warning track-a-phobia". As the field under his feet turns from green to red or dirt colour, he seems to close his eyes, duck, take cover, and do everything except catch the f***ing ball. That kind of s*** wouldn't play on a well coached little league team FFS. Why is it acceptable here?

Then there's Jose f***ing Molina and his scoopity doopity doo-dah s***. Last night's misadventure (strikeout of Brennan Boesch with a wild pitch allowing Boesch to reach to lead off the 4th) reminded me of Patrick Roy's hotdog attempt at a glove save against the Red Wings, only to wind up throwing the puck in his own net (playoffs I think - sorry for the hockey reference - it's the first thing that came to mind when I tried to think of a comparison). Get down on your goddamned f***ing knees and put your tubby frame to work blocking the goddamned ball for goodness sake. Quit flailing around and trying to make a backhanded stab and get down in the f***ing dirt. The most egregious part of the whole thing was that he appeared to be having a good old chuckle about it with Miguel Cabrera, as Cabrera came up to hit. I'm sure Brandon Morrow found that f***ing hilarious. Jose Molina is supposed to be a mentor for J.P. Arencibia, but it is my hope that Arencibia is completely ignoring the on-field actions of his "do as I say, not as I do" mentor. All the more reason to get rid of Molina pronto.

Unfortunately, I think they're going to have to DFA Octavio Dotel as well. He's just continuing to do what he's done since the start of 2009: being effective against RHB, and making the average LHB look like Albert Pujols. That wouldn't be such a problem if Farrell would put him in a situation in which he has a better chance of more frequent success. But unfortunately, he continues to trot him out there every bit as often against LHB as RHB, and OMG! bad things inevitably happen, and strangely enough, continue to happen. Go figure...Shocking. I think he needs to be DFA'd along with the other two, to save Farrell from his immense Octavio Dotel blindspot/boner.

The Jays don't want to bring up their better, younger prospects? Don't want to bring back Snider or Cecil until you feel they're ready? Fine. DFA Patterson, Molina, and Dotel and bring up three of the older, fringier guys like Brian Jeroloman (C), Darin Mastroianni (CF), and Adam Loewen (RF) and find out what you've got there. Most likely not much, but at least Maestro can play defense in CF. Jeroloman seems to have suffered a huge drop in CS% this year, but I've always heard he has a good defensive reputation. He's got to be better than Molina, at least when it comes to blocking balls in the dirt. Then move Jose Bautista back to 3B to stabilize the infield, and put Encarnacion back at DH. I can deal with Juan Rivera in LF until a trade can be made or until such time as it becomes reasonable to eat his salary. I just cannot endure the combo of Rivera in LF, Patterson in CF, Molina at C, and Encarnacion at 3B. That's half a defensive alignment full of Bad News Bears. As a Jays' fan, FML at the moment.

Oh and when Cecil's deemed to be ready, for the love of all that's good in the world, please, please, please DFA Jo-Jo Reyes.

Bring back Dewayne Wise and Fred Lewis!

(Never thought I'd say that but I'm being sincere)

I sat Trevor Cahill last night vs the Rangers. I figured...at Arlington, homerun balls flying out, and some good bats still in that offense. I have a few aces, so I sit him once. And the STUPID thing is, I start CJ Wilson, figuring that he has the Oakland offense to contend with, which should be a speedy Coco Crisp crossing the plate on a Daric Barton single, if anything.

Instead, Wilson gets pummelled, Cahill gets his 6th win, and I am a fantasy dummy yet again.

I guess I should just never, ever sit Verlander or Cahill. I figured with Halladay or Lee on most of my pitching staffs, I can rest a secondary ace with all the innings limits anyway - maybe avoid the pummeling by a good offense. Instead, I just look stupid, every time.

So forget it, all 4 or 5 aces are always in there, every day from here on out.