3000 for Damon?

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03-16-2010, 05:35 PM
haveacigar

3000 for Damon?

Better question.

Damon has 2425 hits. He will be 36 for the entirety of the 2010 season (turns 37 in November).

If he played through his age 40 season, that gives him 5 more years, and he would have to average 115 hits. He averaged 159 hits a year in New York, and at his current pace, it would take him 3.6 years to get to 3000. Keep in mind he's never played fewer than 140 games except for his rookie year.

I don't feel like looking up his WAR, but I'm under the belief that 3000 hits is such a tremendous feat of longevity that anyone who gets it should be a HOFer. That would include Damon. If he doesn't get it, I'd probably say he doesn't deserve it.
03-16-2010, 05:36 PM
200tang

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Even if he does reach it, I don't think he should get in unless they're some really really good years.
03-16-2010, 05:40 PM
HoustonGM

Re: 3000 for Damon?

http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/d/damoj001.htm

46.5 WAR. If he plays enough to reach 3,000 hits (I think he will), he'll be in the borderline area of 55-60 WAR. Depending on how his remaining years go, I'd be inclined to vote no, because he had no peak to speak of and while churning out 3 WAR seasons for 15+ years is certainly an impressive feat, I'm not sure it warrants HoF induction.

Mike Cameron, by the way, is virtually tied with Damon in WAR and while I think Damon will finish his career with slightly more, I don't think it's right that Damon will, at worst, languish on the ballot around 20% while Cameron will fall off immediately.
03-16-2010, 05:44 PM
Jeffy25

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by haveacigar

Better question.

yes, yes it is.

I asked a lil short sighted there.
03-16-2010, 05:44 PM
Jeffy25

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonGM

http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/d/damoj001.htm

46.5 WAR. If he plays enough to reach 3,000 hits (I think he will), he'll be in the borderline area of 55-60 WAR. Depending on how his remaining years go, I'd be inclined to vote no, because he had no peak to speak of and while churning out 3 WAR seasons for 15+ years is certainly an impressive feat, I'm not sure it warrants HoF induction.

Mike Cameron, by the way, is virtually tied with Damon in WAR and while I think Damon will finish his career with slightly more, I don't think it's right that Damon will, at worst, languish on the ballot around 20% while Cameron will fall off immediately.

he wouldn't be the greatest travesty of a hall of famer being voted in, but I wouldn't vote him in.
03-16-2010, 05:45 PM
YEAH DAAAAWG

Re: 3000 for Damon?

He will get 3,000 hits, but will not make the Hall of Fame.
03-16-2010, 05:46 PM
Jeffy25

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG

He will get 3,000 hits, but will not make the Hall of Fame.

so he will be the first not voted in?
03-16-2010, 05:47 PM
Jeffy25

Re: 3000 for Damon?

well two more solid seasons for Renteria and he is basically where Damon is today....

it's a better question, simply because Damon has already done those two seasons while Renteria hasn't.
03-16-2010, 05:47 PM
TheNamelessPoet

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

so he will be the first not voted in?

pamero will
03-16-2010, 05:48 PM
HoustonGM

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

well two more solid seasons for Renteria and he is basically where Damon is today....

it's a better question, simply because Damon has already done those two seasons while Renteria hasn't.

And because Damon has always been a better player. :p
03-16-2010, 05:49 PM
haveacigar

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

well two more solid seasons for Renteria and he is basically where Damon is today....

it's a better question, simply because Damon has already done those two seasons while Renteria hasn't.

Also, Damon is still playing at an every day level. Renteria is already at replacement level.
03-16-2010, 05:50 PM
Jeffy25

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by haveacigar

Also, Damon is still playing at an every day level. Renteria is already at replacement level.

that is true.

HAC for forum president.

sorry president.
03-16-2010, 05:51 PM
200tang

Re: 3000 for Damon?

To be honest, I doubt he gets 3,000. He had enough trouble finding a job this season and coming off what should be a worse year with the emphasis on defense, I find it hard to believe he'll continue to get that many hits a year.
03-16-2010, 05:54 PM
haveacigar

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

that is true.

HAC for forum president.

sorry president.

I'm having a pretty good month, that's for sure.

Johnny didn't really have trouble finding a job. He had trouble finding a job he wanted at a price he wanted. He had 4 different teams interested at him at some point. But, I don't think he will, because he would have to basically do zero aging over the next 3 seasons. That's pretty tough at age 36.
03-16-2010, 05:57 PM
YEAH DAAAAWG

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

so he will be the first not voted in?

There's this guy named "Rose" who got more than 3,000 hits (more than 4,000 actually!) who didn't get voted in. Damon wouldn't be the first.
03-16-2010, 06:12 PM
HoustonGM

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG

There's this guy named "Rose" who got more than 3,000 hits (more than 4,000 actually!) who didn't get voted in. Damon wouldn't be the first.

Heh, well, obviously, that's an exception.

First eligible player with 3,000 hits to not be voted in.
03-16-2010, 06:23 PM
Jeffy25

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Heh, well, obviously, that's an exception.

First eligible player with 3,000 hits to not be voted in.

dawg ;)
03-16-2010, 07:04 PM
President

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

that is true.

HAC for forum president.

sorry president.

traitor!
03-16-2010, 09:08 PM
dps

Re: 3000 for Damon?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 200tang

To be honest, I doubt he gets 3,000. He had enough trouble finding a job this season and coming off what should be a worse year with the emphasis on defense, I find it hard to believe he'll continue to get that many hits a year.

Going by OPS+, last year was actually his best year ever, offensively. If you hit that well, they'll find a place for you (whether they'll pay you want you want is a different matter), so as long as he keeps hitting, he'll be able to find a spot in somebody's lineup.

Favorite toy gives him about a 16% shot at 3000 hits, just a bit worse chance than it sees for Renteria. But that's because of his age--essentially, favorite toy bases how many seasons you have left solely on your age, so it sees Renteria as having twice as many seasons left as Damon, because Renteria is 3 years younger (roughly). But it seems quite possible to me that Damon will still be playing after Renteria is retired. So while I view the 17% chance that favorite toy gives Renteria as extremely generous, I think Damon's chances are actually a good bit better than that. I don't think he'll make it, but I think his chances are better than 16%.

As for the Hall, Damon has some things to offer voters even if he doesn't get to 3000 hits, so he'll get some support even if he end up with around 2800 hits or so. He probably won't get in without 3000, though.