Players of the next decade 2010-2019

mlb.com posted this:


C - Joe Mauer [AVG: 318; HR: 170; RBI: 920]
1B - Prince Fielder [AVG: 277; HR: 359; RBI: 697]
2B - Gordon Beckham [AVG: 274; HR: 186; RBI: 927]
SS - Hanley Ramirez [AVG: 322; HR: 279; RBI: 860]
3B - Evan Longoria [AVG: 280; HR: 330; RBI: 1,100]
LF - Ryan Braun [AVG: 303; HR: 387; SLG: 580]
CF - Justin Upton [AVG: 287; HR: 177; SB: 167]
RF - Jason Heyward [AVG: 300; HR: 350; RBI: 1,018]

RHP - Felix Hernandez [W-L: 180-100; ERA: 3.40; K: 1,650]
LHP - Jon Lester [W-L: 168-63; ERA: 3.50; K: 1,750]


pardon me while I go roll my eyes out of their sockets.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

mlb.com posted this:


C - Joe Mauer [AVG: 318; HR: 170; RBI: 920]
1B - Prince Fielder [AVG: 277; HR: 359; RBI: 697]
2B - Gordon Beckham [AVG: 274; HR: 186; RBI: 927]
SS - Hanley Ramirez [AVG: 322; HR: 279; RBI: 860]
3B - Evan Longoria [AVG: 280; HR: 330; RBI: 1,100]
LF - Ryan Braun [AVG: 303; HR: 387; SLG: 580]
CF - Justin Upton [AVG: 287; HR: 177; SB: 167]
RF - Jason Heyward [AVG: 300; HR: 350; RBI: 1,018]

RHP - Felix Hernandez [W-L: 180-100; ERA: 3.40; K: 1,650]
LHP - Jon Lester [W-L: 168-63; ERA: 3.50; K: 1,750]


pardon me while I go roll my eyes out of their sockets.

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I really don't see anything too wrong with that list. What are you getting at?

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Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG

I really don't see anything too wrong with that list. What are you getting at?

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Same....:confused:

The only thing "wrong" is that Justin Upton's a right fielder....and no way he only hits 177 HR, assuming he plays the whole decade....

I don't see Mauer having that little power, I don't see Hanley staying at shortstop.

Heyward isn't even in the big leagues and I highly doubt continued success for Lester.........maybe it's all personal thoughts....I think they just pulled out the best specs going into the new decade at each position....or rather the best young player at each position, and pulled some numbers out of their asses.

Ryan Braun must be special. He gets his slugging percentage listed instead of RBI.

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Originally Posted by BINGLEBOP

Ryan Braun must be the best player listed He gets his slugging percentage listed instead of RBI.

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Agreed :cool:

Probably didn't list his RBIs b/c his total rolled over after hitting the 1,500 mark

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Same....:confused:

The only thing "wrong" is that Justin Upton's a right fielder....and no way he only hits 177 HR, assuming he plays the whole decade....

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Why not 177 seems reasonable..

he's averaging 1/27 ABs so far , and hit 26 in 588 ABs last year.

don't think is far fetched to think he averages 18 HR/year over then next 10 years for age 22-32, less than he did in the previous 2 years.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I think they just pulled out the best specs going into the new decade at each position....or rather the best young player at each position,

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Yes, how else do you propose doing this?

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

and pulled some numbers out of their asses.

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The only numbers I really question are Upton's. The rest look like regularly straightforward projections.

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Originally Posted by gRYFYN1

Why not 177 seems reasonable..

he's averaging 1/27 ABs so far , and hit 26 in 588 ABs last year.

don't think is far fetched to think he averages 18 HR/year over then next 10 years for age 22-32, less than he did in the previous 2 years.

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You don't think it's far-fetched for one of the top prospects ever, who hit 26 HR in his age 20 season, to average only 18 per year for the next 10 years? I'll take the over.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

You don't think it's far-fetched for one of the top prospects ever, who hit 26 HR in his age 20 season, to average only 18 per year for the next 10 years? I'll take the over.

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Peaking at the age of 20, some say I did that :(

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Yes, how else do you propose doing this?


The only numbers I really question are Upton's. The rest look like regularly straightforward projections.

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I dunno, maybe you're right....I just sort of expected something a lil more in depth and insightful...not, let's pull the best young player at each position and take random guesses...

I would be interested to see what fangraphs would do with this.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I dunno, maybe you're right....I just sort of expected something a lil more in depth and insightful...not, let's pull the best young player at each position and take random guesses...

I would be interested to see what fangraphs would do with this.

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Of course he is. HGM's opinion = Fact. Doi.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I dunno, maybe you're right....I just sort of expected something a lil more in depth and insightful...not, let's pull the best young player at each position and take random guesses...

I would be interested to see what fangraphs would do with this.

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Your just mad because two Brewers made the list and Pujols was left off:).

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I don't see Mauer having that little power, I don't see Hanley staying at shortstop.

Heyward isn't even in the big leagues and I highly doubt continued success for Lester.........maybe it's all personal thoughts....I think they just pulled out the best specs going into the new decade at each position....or rather the best young player at each position, and pulled some numbers out of their asses.

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I agree Heyward is a hard sell, seeing how he has only played 3 game over AA level, espically seeing how they expect 300 & 35 HR / year from him already.

I think that 17 HR/year is optimistic for Mauer; its just as likely that the 28 from last year was a fluke and he will stay at about 10/year.

As far as Hanely goes, I don't think they took that kind of thought process into consideration

I'm not sure what you are basing your thoughts on Lester on otherthan random guessing; there no indication that he should be any worse in the coming years then he was the last two (in fact his BaBip was, if anything, high last year)

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

Your just mad because two Brewers made the list and Pujols was left off:).

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Oh it all makes sense now. :)

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

Your just mad because ...Pujols was left off:).

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That was my first inclination :p

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Originally Posted by gRYFYN1

I agree Heyward is a hard sell, seeing how he has only played 3 game over AA level, espically seeing how they expect 300 & 35 HR / year from him already.

I think that 17 HR/year is optimistic for Mauer; its just as likely that the 28 from last year was a fluke and he will stay at about 10/year.

As far as Hanely goes, I don't think they took that kind of thought process into consideration

I'm not sure what you are basing your thoughts on Lester on otherthan random guessing; there no indication that he should be any worse in the coming years then he was the last two (in fact his BaBip was, if anything, high last year)

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You could be right.

I don't think Mauer's power last year was a fluke personally.

Especially with the number of games he missed. I think 200-250 over the next decade could be reasonable as well.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

You don't think it's far-fetched for one of the top prospects ever, who hit 26 HR in his age 20 season, to average only 18 per year for the next 10 years? I'll take the over.

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sorry misread you statement; didn't see the "only" and thought that you were saying 177 was high -- I agree that its low. and that 250 is much more reasonable/

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

Your just mad because two Brewers made the list and Pujols was left off:).

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Oh, no, I expect Pujols to decline over the next decade greatly.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

Oh, no, I expect Pujols to decline over the next decade greatly.

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why do you expect him to decline greatly over the next decade but not so of Mauer, a catcher with prior knee and back injuries? I even think Pujols is younger??

Is it just that you don't see another catcher that could be the "catcher of the next decade" over Mauer, despite a certain drop off?

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I don't see Mauer having that little power, I don't see Hanley staying at shortstop.

Heyward isn't even in the big leagues and I highly doubt continued success for Lester.........maybe it's all personal thoughts....I think they just pulled out the best specs going into the new decade at each position....or rather the best young player at each position, and pulled some numbers out of their asses.

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LOVE how he has better #'s than Longoria in this :D

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I don't think Mauer's power last year was a fluke personally.

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Why not?

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I would be interested to see what fangraphs would do with this.

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http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...n=C#battedball

His HR/FB was double what it has ever been and his FB% was exactly where it always has been when he's been a 10 homer guy

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Originally Posted by dickay

why do you expect him to decline greatly over the next decade but not so of Mauer, a catcher with prior knee and back injuries? I even think Pujols is younger??

Is it just that you don't see another catcher that could be the "catcher of the next decade" over Mauer, despite a certain drop off?

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I think Mauer's bat is just getting settled in.

I think Pujols won't start to decline for 3-4 years, but I think with his body, he will become injury prone and his bat will suffer because of it toward the tail end of his 30's.

Pujols turned 30 in Jan...I think Mauer is 28?

And because Mauer can easily DH or play first, while Albert will become limited to only a first basemen...that's why....so I can see Fielder posting better numbers, even though his body looks worse.

Pujols just turned 30, Mauer is 26.

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Originally Posted by filihok

Why not?



http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...n=C#battedball

His HR/FB was double what it has ever been and his FB% was exactly where it always has been when he's been a 10 homer guy

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I remember when he came up, they talked about him being a superior gap hitter....and that he would plug the gaps at a high rate, while hitting 10-15 homers a year.

But I think his overall power should continue to be seen. Just like in 06 when Pujols went on that tear of homers...the only thing that dropped from previous years were his doubles....they were now home runs.

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

Pujols just turned 30, Mauer is 26.

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hell that makes it even more clear then.

Mauer at 36 will probably be a more valuable ball player than Pujols at 40

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I think Mauer's bat is just getting settled in.

I think Pujols won't start to decline for 3-4 years, but I think with his body, he will become injury prone and his bat will suffer because of it toward the tail end of his 30's.

Pujols turned 30 in Jan...I think Mauer is 28?

And because Mauer can easily DH or play first, while Albert will become limited to only a first basemen...that's why....so I can see Fielder posting better numbers, even though his body looks worse.

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good answer. i didn't know pujols was that old, i thought he was slightly younger than mauer. I'm more of the thinking that the production from mauer early in this next decade will likely offset the production any other catcher might put up. So even if mauer does decline, he'd still be the most valuable at that position over the next decade. he's just that much better over his contemporaries. I was just curious over your logic.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I remember when he came up, they talked about him being a superior gap hitter....and that he would plug the gaps at a high rate, while hitting 10-15 homers a year.

But I think his overall power should continue to be seen. Just like in 06 when Pujols went on that tear of homers...the only thing that dropped from previous years were his doubles....they were now home runs.

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but this projection has him averaging 17/year

and as far as the Pujols "tear of homers"

from 01-05 he averaged 40 HR / 45 2Bs
from 06-09 he averaged 41 HR / 40 2Bs

out side of last year Mauer has never show much power; even in the minors he has 9 HR in 1250 PAs.

170 HRS is far to high for Mauer; there is no reason to think that last year was anything but what it looked like, just like Wade Boggs in 87.

Matt Weiters will hit more home runs that Mauer next year

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Originally Posted by filihok

Matt Weiters will hit more home runs that Mauer next year

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I was just thinking that actually

But I also don't necessarily think Mauer's power will slow down, I just think Wieter's will start pounding the ball.

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Originally Posted by filihok

Matt Weiters will hit more home runs that Mauer next year

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I'd bet money on it.

I don't know why this is that big of a debate it's all speculation. For all we know, all of these guys could tear their elbows out tomorrow.

They must think the Prince is going to hit alot of solo shots.....

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...n=2009&month=0

HR/FB leaders from fangraphs. Mauer was 11th between Pujols and Dunn.

He also sticks out like a sore thumb in terms of FB%

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Originally Posted by filihok

He also sticks out like a sore thumb in terms of FB%

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What do you mean ? His FB% was perfectly in line with his career trend (increased every year since 2005 by about 1% per year).

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

What do you mean ? His FB% was perfectly in line with his career trend (increased every year since 2005 by about 1% per year).

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I know

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Originally Posted by filihok

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...n=C#battedball

His HR/FB was double what it has ever been and his FB% was exactly where it always has been when he's been a 10 homer guy

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Compared to the other guys on the fangraphs leader board that I posted.

Most guys who hit the ball really hard (hence they have high HR/FB rates) try and hit a lot of fly balls. Mauer hits a lot of groundballs. Hence the high BA and low HR #'s

Gotcha

The only numbers I really disagree with are Uptons HR's and Brauns Avg. I agree that Upton will be a lot closer to 250, maybe even 300. I also think that Braun can sustain a .310-.320 batting average.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I highly doubt continued success for Lester.........

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I think this deserves to be picked on as well

What is it about Lester's 3.64 and 3.15 FIP's the last two years, increase from 6.5 to 10 K's per 9, sub 3 BB per 9, 47% GB numbers that you don't like?

Nothing here portends anything to me besides ace in the making

Agreed. Lester IS the best pitcher on the Boston staff right now, and all his numbers have been trending positively.