Players of the next decade 2010-2019

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03-01-2010, 02:06 PM
dickay

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichelleWie

Your just mad because ...Pujols was left off:).

That was my first inclination :p
03-01-2010, 02:08 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by gRYFYN1

I agree Heyward is a hard sell, seeing how he has only played 3 game over AA level, espically seeing how they expect 300 & 35 HR / year from him already.

I think that 17 HR/year is optimistic for Mauer; its just as likely that the 28 from last year was a fluke and he will stay at about 10/year.

As far as Hanely goes, I don't think they took that kind of thought process into consideration

I'm not sure what you are basing your thoughts on Lester on otherthan random guessing; there no indication that he should be any worse in the coming years then he was the last two (in fact his BaBip was, if anything, high last year)

You could be right.

I don't think Mauer's power last year was a fluke personally.

Especially with the number of games he missed. I think 200-250 over the next decade could be reasonable as well.
03-01-2010, 02:09 PM
gRYFYN1

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonGM

You don't think it's far-fetched for one of the top prospects ever, who hit 26 HR in his age 20 season, to average only 18 per year for the next 10 years? I'll take the over.

sorry misread you statement; didn't see the "only" and thought that you were saying 177 was high -- I agree that its low. and that 250 is much more reasonable/
03-01-2010, 02:10 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichelleWie

Your just mad because two Brewers made the list and Pujols was left off:).

Oh, no, I expect Pujols to decline over the next decade greatly.
03-01-2010, 02:13 PM
dickay

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

Oh, no, I expect Pujols to decline over the next decade greatly.

why do you expect him to decline greatly over the next decade but not so of Mauer, a catcher with prior knee and back injuries? I even think Pujols is younger??

Is it just that you don't see another catcher that could be the "catcher of the next decade" over Mauer, despite a certain drop off?
03-01-2010, 02:16 PM
TheNamelessPoet

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I don't see Mauer having that little power, I don't see Hanley staying at shortstop.

Heyward isn't even in the big leagues and I highly doubt continued success for Lester.........maybe it's all personal thoughts....I think they just pulled out the best specs going into the new decade at each position....or rather the best young player at each position, and pulled some numbers out of their asses.

LOVE how he has better #'s than Longoria in this :D
03-01-2010, 02:20 PM
filihok

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I don't think Mauer's power last year was a fluke personally.

Why not?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I would be interested to see what fangraphs would do with this.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...n=C#battedball

His HR/FB was double what it has ever been and his FB% was exactly where it always has been when he's been a 10 homer guy
03-01-2010, 02:21 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by dickay

why do you expect him to decline greatly over the next decade but not so of Mauer, a catcher with prior knee and back injuries? I even think Pujols is younger??

Is it just that you don't see another catcher that could be the "catcher of the next decade" over Mauer, despite a certain drop off?

I think Mauer's bat is just getting settled in.

I think Pujols won't start to decline for 3-4 years, but I think with his body, he will become injury prone and his bat will suffer because of it toward the tail end of his 30's.

Pujols turned 30 in Jan...I think Mauer is 28?

And because Mauer can easily DH or play first, while Albert will become limited to only a first basemen...that's why....so I can see Fielder posting better numbers, even though his body looks worse.
03-01-2010, 02:22 PM
Alloutwar

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Pujols just turned 30, Mauer is 26.
03-01-2010, 02:22 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by filihok

Why not?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...n=C#battedball

His HR/FB was double what it has ever been and his FB% was exactly where it always has been when he's been a 10 homer guy

I remember when he came up, they talked about him being a superior gap hitter....and that he would plug the gaps at a high rate, while hitting 10-15 homers a year.

But I think his overall power should continue to be seen. Just like in 06 when Pujols went on that tear of homers...the only thing that dropped from previous years were his doubles....they were now home runs.
03-01-2010, 02:23 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alloutwar

Pujols just turned 30, Mauer is 26.

hell that makes it even more clear then.

Mauer at 36 will probably be a more valuable ball player than Pujols at 40
03-01-2010, 02:24 PM
dickay

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I think Mauer's bat is just getting settled in.

I think Pujols won't start to decline for 3-4 years, but I think with his body, he will become injury prone and his bat will suffer because of it toward the tail end of his 30's.

Pujols turned 30 in Jan...I think Mauer is 28?

And because Mauer can easily DH or play first, while Albert will become limited to only a first basemen...that's why....so I can see Fielder posting better numbers, even though his body looks worse.

good answer. i didn't know pujols was that old, i thought he was slightly younger than mauer. I'm more of the thinking that the production from mauer early in this next decade will likely offset the production any other catcher might put up. So even if mauer does decline, he'd still be the most valuable at that position over the next decade. he's just that much better over his contemporaries. I was just curious over your logic.
03-01-2010, 02:39 PM
gRYFYN1

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I remember when he came up, they talked about him being a superior gap hitter....and that he would plug the gaps at a high rate, while hitting 10-15 homers a year.

But I think his overall power should continue to be seen. Just like in 06 when Pujols went on that tear of homers...the only thing that dropped from previous years were his doubles....they were now home runs.

but this projection has him averaging 17/year

and as far as the Pujols "tear of homers"

from 01-05 he averaged 40 HR / 45 2Bs
from 06-09 he averaged 41 HR / 40 2Bs

out side of last year Mauer has never show much power; even in the minors he has 9 HR in 1250 PAs.

170 HRS is far to high for Mauer; there is no reason to think that last year was anything but what it looked like, just like Wade Boggs in 87.
03-01-2010, 02:42 PM
filihok

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Matt Weiters will hit more home runs that Mauer next year
03-01-2010, 02:49 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Players of the next decade 2010-2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by filihok

Matt Weiters will hit more home runs that Mauer next year

I was just thinking that actually

But I also don't necessarily think Mauer's power will slow down, I just think Wieter's will start pounding the ball.

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