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Over the next 5-7 years, we are going to see the most 300 winners enter the HOF in a short year span, ever. Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Johnson. Also, if they retire when they should, we will have Smoltz, Martinez, and Rivera.
Wow. Despite the roids, this is a great bunch of guys who pitched through it all. (Clemens is the ?, but...)
The only guy on the radar I see hitting 300 is King Felix, just cause he started so young.
King Felix could reach 300, but I am going to bet on the outside chance on that one.
What is the percentage chance of it happening? Anyone have the new Bill James book, I think it says what his chances are.
Anyone have a higher percentage chance? I assume someone like Doc has a better shot than king Felix. Anyone older, and closer is going to have a higher percentage.
I honestly think a 300 win pitcher isnt going to happen for a very long time.
I honestly don't know if it ever will again.
I believe 250 will be the new 300 in terms of career wins.
And really 200 will become the bench mark for hall of fame voters..........since they still care for whatever reason about career wins.
I don't have Bill James book, but Roy Halladay & Oswalt have decent shots at 300.
CC Sabathia might have the best shot looking at it from a statistics standpoint and the fact he's going to be a Yankee for a long time, although I doubt his body type holds up through his mid 30's.
If you look at the 300 club in the modern era, you have to start pitching at 20-22, start winning, and last. So I dont see anyone outside of closers for a long while.
3 closest are:
Mike Mussina: 270-153. He might of made it. He went 18-5 in 1992. He was 24 though. I still think he could have made it, but he was smart and got out at the right time.
Andy Pettite: 229-135. Non Yankee, he isnt even close.
Jamie Moyer: 258-195. Born in 1962!!
Honorable mention is my favorite pitcher. Tim Wakefield. Just for being able to pitch: start, short and long relief, spot, closer and just plain cool at 44.
Moyer is cooler, because of the way he wears his hat. No argument can be made.Quote:
Originally Posted by grasshopper
And Tang, you suck.
Oh come on. A 58 MPH screwball. Old ladies pass that on the highway.Quote:
Moyer is cooler, because of the way he wears his hat. No argument can be made.
Doesnt matter, how he wears his hat is gold. Future HOF.Quote:
Originally Posted by grasshopper
Bah, not this again.
Here's what I posted on the subject 3 years ago:
My opinion hasn't changed any since then, though obviously my comments about Glavine and Johnson are a bit outdated.Quote:
There's absolutely no indication that fewer and fewer pitchers will reach 300 wins in the future. Yes, we're very unlikely to see a return to stating pitchers winning 30+ games a season, and indeed are likely to see fewer and fewer 20-game winners, but we're likely to see more and more guys pitching effectively past age 30.
We've got 130 years of major league history, and 22 guys have reached 300 wins. Of those 22, 8--more than a third--have reached that level since 1980, and Glavine might reach it this year (needs 10 wins and had 15 in 2006; I suppose that Randy Johnson could to, but I don't see him winning 20 games at age 43--but if he comes back in 2008 at age 44, he'll likely get there then ). If anything, 300 winners are more common now than any time since the 19th century.
Here's what I posted later, after Glavine had gotten to 300:
Quote:
I'll bet you $50 that there's at least 2 pitchers active in the majors this year who eventually get to 300 wins, not counting Johnson (who I'm think might be done). (And we'll probably have to wait about 20 years to find out for sure, but that's OK--I don't mind waiting to collect.)
Mussina still has a chance, at least, though I don't think he'll make it. Some of the other guys who currently have 200+ wins I suppose might make it if they last as long as Ryan did, but the best bets are younger pitchers who are not anywhere near that yet. Johan Santana is 28, and is already up to 89 wins, and C.C. Sabathia is 2 years younger and has 6 more wins. Do you really want to argue that it's not possible for either of those guys to make it to 300 wins? And if neither of them do it, maybe Roy Halladay or Dontrell Willis will, or maybe Ben Sheets. Or maybe some kid who's in his first season, and will end the year 2-3 with an ERA of 6.49 (Santana's marks his first season). While the odds will be strongly against any individual pitcher we might look at making it, there are enough pitchers who have a bit of a chance that the cumulative odds are that someone will do it.
Dude, it's not the hat...It's the socks:Quote:
Originally Posted by ragecage
http://www.sportsmogul.com/vbulletin...1&d=1266152996
...And why are we debating pitcher merit using wins? It's 2010. We know that many factors well beyond a pitcher's control influence whether or not he gets a win. Also, we keep hearing how there's never going to be another 300 game winner and they keep showing up. The only way there won't be another one is if baseball comes to an end for some reason :eek: , and that would end achievement in all the milestone categories.
It will. People have been talking about the death of the 300 game winner ever since Early Wynn, and it's silly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
In the Bill James Book he has Doc with highest chance right now. He's followed by C.C., Haren, Moyer, and then Pettitte. Nothing about King Felix in there though.
yea just look at the end of the 96 season ..Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Maddux was 30 and had 165 wins
Glavine was 30 with just 139 wins
Clemens was a 33 year old with 192 wins who was solid but injury prone ans just 40-39 in that last 4 yers
Johnson was already 32 and had just 104 wins
Most people here would ave assumed those guys were long shots at best at making 300, yet they all did, and obviously two topped 350.
As dps said, the chances that any given individual pitcher reaches 300 wins are very, very slim...but the chances that SOMEONE does are much larger.
Bill James did his first attempt at modifying Favorite Toy for pitchers about that time (maybe a year or so later, don't know if he's modified the formula since, but suspect that he has) and the best candidates were Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Smolz, all of whom showed a chance in the 20-25% range. James' take was that that probably meant that most likely, 1 of the 4 would likley make it and the others likely wouldn't.Quote:
Originally Posted by gRYFYN1
Of course, it turned out that 3 of the 4 got to 300. I don't know if that's a sign of a flaw in that version of the formula, or just a matter of overcoming the odds. But it illustrates my earlier point which HGM alluded to--the odds were against all 4 of them as individuals, but in favor of at least 1 of them making it.
:D lolQuote:
Originally Posted by dps
I hope CC and Ben both get their. Even though it's unlikely. ( Especialy for Sheets) To go off on a tangent here, I Have never agreed with the fact that CC is universally loved and Sheets is universally hated in Brewer land. I can make a very good case for Sheets being the best pitcher in Brewers history. I love them both unconditionally :). No hate for Ben here..Quote:
uote:
I'll bet you $50 that there's at least 2 pitchers active in the majors this year who eventually get to 300 wins, not counting Johnson (who I'm think might be done). (And we'll probably have to wait about 20 years to find out for sure, but that's OK--I don't mind waiting to collect.)
Mussina still has a chance, at least, though I don't think he'll make it. Some of the other guys who currently have 200+ wins I suppose might make it if they last as long as Ryan did, but the best bets are younger pitchers who are not anywhere near that yet. Johan Santana is 28, and is already up to 89 wins, and C.C. Sabathia is 2 years younger and has 6 more wins. Do you really want to argue that it's not possible for either of those guys to make it to 300 wins? And if neither of them do it, maybe Roy Halladay or Dontrell Willis will, or maybe Ben Sheets. Or maybe some kid who's in his first season, and will end the year 2-3 with an ERA of 6.49 (Santana's marks his first season). While the odds will be strongly against any individual pitcher we might look at making it, there are enough pitchers who have a bit of a chance that the cumulative odds are that someone will do it.
after Teddy Higuera, of course.Quote:
Originally Posted by MichelleWie
His only competition for that title is Teddy Higuera. I'd say it's a toss up and call it a tie. WAR has Higuera about 5 wins ahead - 28.3 to 23.8.Quote:
Originally Posted by MichelleWie
I agree. I was just pointing out that a good case can be made for Sheets as well. Interesting that Higuera is one of most hated Brewers in history. Like Sheets he had the misfortune of getting hurt after signing a huge contract. The fans seemed to somehow think that the big contract was to blame. They totally ignore the innings he racked up early in his career. He also worked very hard to try an return to the majors. Unfortunately instead of his legacy being Greatest pitcher in franchise history it became biggest mistake in franchise history. Hopefully one day Teddy will get the recognition he deserves.Quote:
Originally Posted by SirKodiak