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One of the main uses of value analysis is to try and find market inefficiencies. Ten years ago, on base percentage was undervalued, so teams loaded up on high walk guys that scouts didn’t care for. More recently, defense has been the undervalued asset, so teams have gone after guys who can turn balls in play into outs.
Everything is cyclical, though. As more teams pursue what is currently undervalued, it becomes more fairly valued, and the competitive advantage goes away. At some point soon, defense will probably become fairly valued again, and the teams who are loading up on good defenders will be looking for some other way to spend their money.
What will the next big inefficiency be? It’s impossible to predict, of course, but I have a guess – old players.
Seems like a pretty good guess. The last few years lots of older guys who still have value left have been forced to sign for little money or even forced in to retirement.