http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
Absolutely preposterous.
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http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
Absolutely preposterous.
Brewers, Rockies, Mets all with worse records than Washington?
What dumbass made these up?
PECOTA? More like PECOMA! They must be extremely infantile in their understanding of baseball!!!!
....if they think the Mets will win that many games this season.
Where is that Fry pic when I need it!
I can really see all of those projections.
I would be surprised if those guesses are more than 5 wins off on any of them.
PECOTA has some issues that have been brought up recently and isn't one of the better projection systems.
I think this was at least a decently fair guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
I think the Rays were too highly rated, I think the Reds will do better than that. etc.
There are exceptions to the rule as always. But those standings would not surprise me at all.
My views on some of the teams.
The Cardinals bullpen will blow a lot of games.
The Mets won't win as many as MG is pleading for.....they will win more like what is slated in this projection. With a very slim rotation and too many injury questions, they are looking mediocre.
The Nats and Reds will surprise some and win more than expected.
The Mariners will do much better, but they won a lot of one run ball games last year, which makes me wonder if their upgrades will really carry them fence posts ahead of their 85 win season.
The Orioles and Rangers could surprise a lot of teams.
and I would be surprised if the Twins don't win the A.L. Central again. The Indians are the only team that I could see actually competing with them.
Don't count out the Diamondbacks and if the Giants bat .267 as a team, they will win more like 90 games, not 81
I am also not so sure the Angels will really play below .500 all year, even though they lost Lackey, Figgins, and Vlad.
We need to save this thread, so we can look back on how failtastic these predictions were.
The Mets are packed with All-Stars. Jarrod Washburn will put them over the hump and should give them the Wild Card. Think about it. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Santana, K-Rod, Castillo, even Francoeur... gasp!). A great defensive first baseman. Bounceback seasons from Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez. A strong bullpen. How could we not do good?
remember they are the mets...
Anyone could win the AL West this year.
Don't over rate your players ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by metsguy234
I see a fundamental misunderstanding of what a "projection" is. The projection has three teams in the AL West within 2 games of each other. The margin of error is enough to call the AL West "too close to call."
Furthermore, 'looking back' to preseason projections is bound to result in "fails" all over for any projection simply because there are so many unknowns that projections can't and don't project - fluke seasons, fluke injuries, trades, etc.
Also, hell no metsguy- you're crazy.
The Jays will...win a lot of games...Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
wait for it...
...in 2013. :( Until then I'll watch AA and his staff go to work on fixing all the damage that's been done in the last 15 years of ineptitude, or I'll take them over in OOTP or Mogul and take my frustration out on the rest of the pixel league. :)
Yeah, and I would say anything 5 wins off, means the projection was pretty accurate.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
there ya go ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson
Well Mr. Grammar King, your team might do well, but under no circumstances will they do good. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by metsguy234
:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson
You get the Bingle star of the day.Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson
Also, how many pitchers now were the pitcher that will put the mets over the hump? Sheets, Pineiro, Garland...Rich Hill.... yeah, get back to me when the Mets actually sign a pitcher.
If Parnell was in the rotation it could work probably too.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Personally, I am not impressed by J. Washburn.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
The Mets could sign every player left on the open market, they still won't win more than 85 games.
That's because he's not impressive. He's a average to slightly below average pitcher that had a great half season courtesy of luck and Franklin Gutierrez.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
LiesQuote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
And, also, remember, this is the first update. The projections on opening day will differ from these.
Even though the AL West is going to be tight and any projection is realistically possible, these are extremely confusing. By almost every projection I've seen, besides this one, the Angels are the favorites by about a win or two.
Wish I could find the article explaining why PECOTA is flawed, but I can't. I do know of all the projection systems last year it did the worst by far.
I had assumed the Mariners were locks.
The AL West is probably the deepest division in baseball.
I don't remember it being that way last time I saw a comparison of projection systems (don't know if that was this year or last year).Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
Well, there's your problem. You're wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by metsguy234
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...h-of-superman/Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8653
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZE...ctions0509.jpg
2009 Only
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZE...tions05091.jpg
(Higher = Worse)
Basically, they changed the way PECOTA does things before '09 and it didn't do a good job last season. I wouldn't rely on it over the other systems, not to mention PECOTA doesn't pass the 'eye test'.
The catcher is Matt Wieters.
AKA The Greatest Baseball Player Ever.Quote:
Originally Posted by metsguy234
wow, i was worried for a second that you didn't mention future first ballot HOF John Maine. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by metsguy234
http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/ext...projected.html
CAIRO's early projected standings
Regarding PECOTA projections, here's Colin Wyers from a post on The Book blog:
(Extrapolate that last sentence to the AL West, and, well, like I said, it's not accurate at all to say that they're projecting the A's to win, unless you completely fail to understand what a projection is).Quote:
I wouldn’t say NO work has been done on the depth charts. But yeah, there’s still a lot of work to be done when it comes to forecasting playing time and things like that. (Right now most teams don’t even know exactly what their 25-man roster is going to look like on Opening Day, so how should we know?) Certainly this is a work in progress.
But at the same time, some of the complaints I’m hearing about are vastly overblown, like the AL East for instance. The projected differences between the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox are much, much smaller than the uncertainty in the projection - it’s barely accurate to say we’re projecting the Rays to do better than the Yankees at all.
ROFL... u really think the mets can get teh WC with the braves and Fla in that division
u ARE kiddin right?
Mets signed Josh Fogg. World Series here they come!
This obviously doesn't include the Edmonds signing. If it did it would vault us past the Cubs,Reds and Cards....