PECOTA: A's will win the AL West

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564 - from 2007

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http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...h-of-superman/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8653

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZE...ctions0509.jpg

2009 Only
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZE...tions05091.jpg

(Higher = Worse)

Basically, they changed the way PECOTA does things before '09 and it didn't do a good job last season. I wouldn't rely on it over the other systems, not to mention PECOTA doesn't pass the 'eye test'.

Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2005-2009)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZE...tions05091.jpg

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/imag...s/bpro2010.jpg
from http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...s/bpros_cover/
Notice who the catcher is?

The catcher is Matt Wieters.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

The catcher is Matt Wieters.

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AKA The Greatest Baseball Player Ever.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

We need to save this thread, so we can look back on how failtastic these predictions were.

The Mets are packed with All-Stars. Jarrod Washburn will put them over the hump and should give them the Wild Card. Think about it. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Santana, K-Rod, Castillo, even Francoeur... gasp!). A great defensive first baseman. Bounceback seasons from Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez. A strong bullpen. How could we not do good?

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wow, i was worried for a second that you didn't mention future first ballot HOF John Maine. :rolleyes:

http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/ext...projected.html

CAIRO's early projected standings

Regarding PECOTA projections, here's Colin Wyers from a post on The Book blog:

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I wouldn’t say NO work has been done on the depth charts. But yeah, there’s still a lot of work to be done when it comes to forecasting playing time and things like that. (Right now most teams don’t even know exactly what their 25-man roster is going to look like on Opening Day, so how should we know?) Certainly this is a work in progress.

But at the same time, some of the complaints I’m hearing about are vastly overblown, like the AL East for instance. The projected differences between the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox are much, much smaller than the uncertainty in the projection - it’s barely accurate to say we’re projecting the Rays to do better than the Yankees at all.

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(Extrapolate that last sentence to the AL West, and, well, like I said, it's not accurate at all to say that they're projecting the A's to win, unless you completely fail to understand what a projection is).

ROFL... u really think the mets can get teh WC with the braves and Fla in that division


u ARE kiddin right?

Mets signed Josh Fogg. World Series here they come!

This obviously doesn't include the Edmonds signing. If it did it would vault us past the Cubs,Reds and Cards....

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Originally Posted by SirKodiak

Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2005-2009)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZE...tions05091.jpg

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/imag...s/bpro2010.jpg
from http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...s/bpros_cover/
Notice who the catcher is?

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What is Cairo?

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Originally Posted by yeah daaaawg

mets signed josh fogg. World series here they come!

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:d

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Originally Posted by jpz17

What is Cairo?

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Just one of many projection systems.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Just one of many projection systems.

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Where can I find that online?

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Originally Posted by jpz17

Where can I find that online?

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http://rlyw.blogspot.com/ - throughout that blog is the best I can find, though there's probably a better answer.