Has Johan Santana peaked?

Meaning his best years are definitely behind him and we are unlikely to see him return to the dominance of his CY years?

Year ERA+ WHIP SO/9 H/9 Age
2009 131 1.212 7.9 8.4 30
2008 166 1.148 7.9 7.9 29
2007 129 1.073 9.7 7.5 28
2006 161 0.997 9.4 7.2 27
2005 155 0.971 9.2 7.0 26
2004 182 0.921 10.5 6.2 25

*Underlined years are CY winning seasons

I would say he's still in his "peak" or prime of his career. No reason to think he couldn't have another stud Cy quality season. So I don't know how to answer this. I say yes, he's at the peak....but no, he hasn't started the decent :)

I don't think it's possible to say yet, but his SO/9 the past 2 years was 7.9 each year, while it was previously 9-11 every previous year. He dealt with arm issues last year so there could be other reasons why that happened, but I wouldn't expect him to put up the same dominance he did in Minnesota, although I do expect him to be one of the best pitchers in the NL year after year.

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Originally Posted by dickay

I would say he's still in his "peak" or prime of his career. No reason to think he couldn't have another stud Cy quality season. So I don't know how to answer this. I say yes, he's at the peak....but no, he hasn't started the decent :)

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option 4 maybe?

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

option 4 maybe?

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got ya :)

I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.

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Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG

I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.

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It would be great if we could poll MLB hitters and see what they thought wouldn't it? I am betting most would agree with what you said

I'd say he has had his best season, but that he's still a #1 starter.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I'd say he has had his best season, but that he's still a #1 starter.

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if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?

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I'd say his average ERA+ would fall between 120 and 140.

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Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG

I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.

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agreed

do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?

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Originally Posted by TheNamelessPoet

agreed

do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?

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FIP, xFIP, tRA, DICE

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Originally Posted by TheNamelessPoet

do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?

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Like FIP? It is on Fangraphs and Santana's 2007-2009 is over a half-run worse than 2004-2006 - so that would indicate that he might have peaked. The SO/9 that HGM mentioned is another clue.

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Originally Posted by kenny1234

Like FIP? It is on Fangraphs and Santana's 2007-2009 is over a half-run worse than 2004-2006 - so that would indicate that he might have peaked. The SO/9 that HGM mentioned is another clue.

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*tang. :)

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I'd say his average ERA+ would fall between 120 and 140.

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Agreed with HGM. There are very few players that I would comfortably forecast with an ERA+ above 140. Most likely Lincecum and Greinke, probably Halladay and Felix Hernandez. Beyond that, it is difficult to see people that I think have at least a 50/50 chance of ERA+ that high.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

*tang. :)

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Apologies to tang for the mis-reference.:)

Yes he's peaked. He's not going to be better than 2004-2006 again.

I'd still take him on my team though

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Originally Posted by filihok

Yes he's peaked. He's not going to be better than 2004-2006 again.

I'd still take him on my team though

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+1 lol

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I'd say he has had his best season, but that he's still a #1 starter.

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I basically agree with this.

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Originally Posted by filihok

Yes he's peaked. He's not going to be better than 2004-2006 again.

I'd still take him on my team though

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Agree. I think he'll still have a couple seasons at least that will be better than his 2009 (which was a very good season by most pitchers' standards) but he won't be as good as in 20047-06.

How much longer would have to pitch at his current level to be considered a HOFer?

I think he can probably pitch at this level for 5-6 more years with a bit of regression since he's now 30 . . . he'll probably be able to pitch in the majors at least probably until he is 40, unless he just loses it. The 5-6 years of pitching at near his peak will probably get him into the Hall of Fame though if he pitches until he's 40, he'll probably get to the much hallowed benchmark of 300 wins.

10 years, needing 178 wins - I seriously doubt that Santana gets to 300 wins, particularly if he is playing for the Mets.;)

5 or 6 seasons playing like he did last year, would probably leave him borderline, but that leaves no room for regression. If he can be more like his 2008 season, then he'll get in. If 2009 is more reflective of his current form, then he probably doesn't.

I'd say it's very possible. But it def remains to be seen. Chances are yes IMO

I heard that when he and Beltran are at the Urinals

Santana leans over to get a look

So, as far as I know, yes he has peeked

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Originally Posted by kenny1234

10 years, needing 178 wins - I seriously doubt that Santana gets to 300 wins, especially if he is playing for the Mets.;)

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fixed

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

I heard that when he and Beltran are at the Urinals

Santana leans over to get a look

So, as far as I know, yes he has peeked

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lmao

I think he's on the downside of his career, but the same way that descending to 28,000 feet on Mt. Everest is the downside.

Santana currently has a career WAR of 42.1, which is higher than some pitchers already in the Hall but most of those are considered mistakes.

Every pitcher above 70 WAR is either in the Hall already or will be in the future. Most pitchers in the 50-70 range are Hall of Famers, although there's certainly some pitchers in that range that aren't in and won't ever be in. I think if Santana cracks the 50 total WAR barrier, he should be in given his superb peak. He performed at a 3.6 WAR level last year in a shortened year. I think he'll be able to sustain a 4-5 WAR performance for at least another 3-5 years, which would put him near 60 WAR.

I'd say, given his reputation and peak, a normal decline from here will earn him a HoF spot.

I believe he is an arm speed type of pitcher. His changeup/fastball need significant arm speed in order to be effective. I think, depending on how he bounces back after this surgery, he could have many good years ahead of him.

Will he be as good as he was? Not sure, but he will be competitive, and an ace for 3 more years IMO

By 2012 we will want him out of New York. He's not going to be the same after this surgery.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Santana currently has a career WAR of 42.1, which is higher than some pitchers already in the Hall but most of those are considered mistakes.

Every pitcher above 70 WAR is either in the Hall already or will be in the future. Most pitchers in the 50-70 range are Hall of Famers, although there's certainly some pitchers in that range that aren't in and won't ever be in. I think if Santana cracks the 50 total WAR barrier, he should be in given his superb peak. He performed at a 3.6 WAR level last year in a shortened year. I think he'll be able to sustain a 4-5 WAR performance for at least another 3-5 years, which would put him near 60 WAR.

I'd say, given his reputation and peak, a normal decline from here will earn him a HoF spot.

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inspite of the BBWAA infatuation with milestones? I dunno, I think he might not get in right away because of that.

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

inspite of the BBWAA infatuation with milestones? I dunno, I think he might not get in right away because of that.

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The BBWAA that will be voting 20 years from now when Santana is on the ballot will be a very different BBWAA than the current one.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

The BBWAA that will be voting 20 years from now when Santana is on the ballot will be a very different BBWAA than the current one.

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in personage yes but not necessarily in philosophy...I can only hope that both are true

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

in personage yes but not necessarily in philosophy...I can only hope that both are true

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Rob Neyer, Keith Law, Will Carroll, Christina Kahrl and the other internet writers that were recently admitted will have been voting for 5 years by then, and I have no doubt that more writers in the same vein will be getting BBWAA membership in the next few years.

What are you talking about I'm gonna win the Cy Young this year!!:confused::confused: You Wait and see! I've never been better

Jaker.

I don't think that's the real Johan Santana.

That is not me, I created the Pujols and Rasmus accounts but that's it..

:rolleyes: