Has Johan Santana peaked?

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

*tang. :)

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Apologies to tang for the mis-reference.:)

Yes he's peaked. He's not going to be better than 2004-2006 again.

I'd still take him on my team though

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Originally Posted by filihok

Yes he's peaked. He's not going to be better than 2004-2006 again.

I'd still take him on my team though

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+1 lol

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I'd say he has had his best season, but that he's still a #1 starter.

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I basically agree with this.

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Originally Posted by filihok

Yes he's peaked. He's not going to be better than 2004-2006 again.

I'd still take him on my team though

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Agree. I think he'll still have a couple seasons at least that will be better than his 2009 (which was a very good season by most pitchers' standards) but he won't be as good as in 20047-06.

How much longer would have to pitch at his current level to be considered a HOFer?

I think he can probably pitch at this level for 5-6 more years with a bit of regression since he's now 30 . . . he'll probably be able to pitch in the majors at least probably until he is 40, unless he just loses it. The 5-6 years of pitching at near his peak will probably get him into the Hall of Fame though if he pitches until he's 40, he'll probably get to the much hallowed benchmark of 300 wins.

10 years, needing 178 wins - I seriously doubt that Santana gets to 300 wins, particularly if he is playing for the Mets.;)

5 or 6 seasons playing like he did last year, would probably leave him borderline, but that leaves no room for regression. If he can be more like his 2008 season, then he'll get in. If 2009 is more reflective of his current form, then he probably doesn't.

I'd say it's very possible. But it def remains to be seen. Chances are yes IMO

I heard that when he and Beltran are at the Urinals

Santana leans over to get a look

So, as far as I know, yes he has peeked

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Originally Posted by kenny1234

10 years, needing 178 wins - I seriously doubt that Santana gets to 300 wins, especially if he is playing for the Mets.;)

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fixed

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

I heard that when he and Beltran are at the Urinals

Santana leans over to get a look

So, as far as I know, yes he has peeked

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lmao

I think he's on the downside of his career, but the same way that descending to 28,000 feet on Mt. Everest is the downside.

Santana currently has a career WAR of 42.1, which is higher than some pitchers already in the Hall but most of those are considered mistakes.

Every pitcher above 70 WAR is either in the Hall already or will be in the future. Most pitchers in the 50-70 range are Hall of Famers, although there's certainly some pitchers in that range that aren't in and won't ever be in. I think if Santana cracks the 50 total WAR barrier, he should be in given his superb peak. He performed at a 3.6 WAR level last year in a shortened year. I think he'll be able to sustain a 4-5 WAR performance for at least another 3-5 years, which would put him near 60 WAR.

I'd say, given his reputation and peak, a normal decline from here will earn him a HoF spot.

I believe he is an arm speed type of pitcher. His changeup/fastball need significant arm speed in order to be effective. I think, depending on how he bounces back after this surgery, he could have many good years ahead of him.

Will he be as good as he was? Not sure, but he will be competitive, and an ace for 3 more years IMO