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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/d/dawsa001.htm
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/w/walkl001.htm
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Originally Posted by
haveacigar
Also, do those WAR calculations include a defensive metric? I suspect that Dawson was a better fielder, mainly because he played CF for a number of years.
Defense and arm. Dawson gets +37 from TotalZone and +32 from his arm. Walker gets +41 Total Zone and +55 arm. While Dawson had big seasons as a center fielder (+12, +13, +14 TZ), Walker was consistently in the +6/+7 range throughout most of his career while Dawson dropped to around -2 per year for most of his time as a right fielder.
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I'm also not sure I buy that Dawson was below replacement level his last five seasons. Below average, maybe.
It's really his last 4 seasons. In 1992, he had 2.4 WAR. It was negative in each of the next 4 years, and I think that's not only reasonable but obvious. In three of those years, he had an OPS+ of 92, and it was 82 in the other year, while playing mostly as a designated hitter but also a right fielder and a pinch hitter - 171 games as a DH, 67 in right field, 12 in left and then a bunch of pinch hit appearances. An aggregate 89 OPS+ (.260/.300/.438) over his final 1,111 plate appearances, 717 as a designated hitter...that's really bad.
I'm also don't share your concerns about Coors Field in regards to WAR. None of the other major hitters from those late 90's Rockies teams score high on WAR. Dante Bichette, for example, has a CAREER WAR of 2 - 2.7 of which came in 1993. In 1995 when he placed 2nd in the MVP voting, he had a WAR of 0.3, which I think would easily qualify as the most absurd 2nd place MVP finish ever. Andres Galarraga two seasons of 5+ WAR came in Montreal and Atlanta. His 1993 when he hit .370 comes out as 3.5. Vinny Castilla's career high was 4.5 in 1998. His two 40 homer seasons in 1996 and 1997 come out as 8 and 7 runs above average offensively.
The only Rockies that do particularly well in WAR are Walker and Helton, and I have no trouble believing that that's because they were two legitimately great players....and Helton gets a lot of his value from his superb fielding (+81 for his career according to TZ). I think you're underrating Walker and Helton thanks to Coors Field.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
The only Rockies that do particularly well in WAR are Walker and Helton, and I have no trouble believing that that's because they were two legitimately great players....and Helton gets a lot of his value from his superb fielding (+81 for his career according to TZ). I think you're underrating Walker and Helton thanks to Coors Field.
That's entirely possible. I'm sure I'll reconsider when it comes time to look at the ballot for next season.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Jon Heyman on not voting Bly
"I didn't vote Bly because he is in the top 2 percent of all baseball players to ever play the game, and I think you need to be in the top 1 percent of all time baseball players to make it."
He then added
"He never lead the league in wins, and he never felt like a hall of famer to me"
and then Victor Rojas schooled him on stats.....
I hear some pretty weak excuses
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Jon Heyman rides the short bus.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Blyleven is a 300 win pitcher. He might be 13 wins short of actually getting 300, but for all intents and purposes, he's a 300 win pitcher. All 300 win pitchers should be in the hall of fame. All 300 win pitchers are the best of the best.
You know, at least when KLaw and Cameron act arrogantly, they at least know something about what they're talking. Heyman acts like an arrogant douche and he wouldn't know a great pitcher if one threw a fastball at his junk.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
The dumber thing than not voting for Blyleven (it's conceivable that you're a very small Hall guy and Blyleven doesn't fit into such a small Hall) is voting for Jack Morris but not Blyleven. It's completely unjustifiable by any rational thought process.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Then what about Tommy John??
Does he deserve to be in?
Luis Tiant?
I mean if we are splitting hairs, and I'm just playing devil's advocate...
p.s. I have never really liked Heyman, and he has a history of making his "bold predictions", and never being correct
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
The dumber thing than not voting for Blyleven (it's conceivable that you're a very small Hall guy and Blyleven doesn't fit into such a small Hall) is voting for Jack Morris but not Blyleven. It's completely unjustifiable by any rational thought process.
did Heyman do that?
oh wait...............yes he did!
Because Morris was possibly the best pitcher in the 80's!
I guess Morris is in the top 1 percent of baseball players that have played throughout time, but Bly and his 3700 strike outs and 287 wins on small market teams is not in that 1%
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jeffy25
Because Morris was possibly the best pitcher in the 80's!
He wasn't. Dave Stieb was.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
He wasn't. Dave Stieb was.
sarcasm
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jeffy25
sarcasm
I would've taken it as sarcasm if you didn't include the word "possibly." lol
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
I heard Todd Helton's name
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Here is what I was told when I said that Morris doesn't belong in the hall:
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I'm not trying to be condescending, but you were born near the end of Morris' career. Honestly, you can't just look at the numbers with Morris. For an entire decade, if you were a MLB manager and you needed to win one game, Morris was on the mound. He started nearly every playoff and WS round and he started 14 opening days in a row.
I was reading Bill James since the mid-80s and am a big moneyball guy. However, for some players, you have to look past all the statistics. When Jack Morris retired, if you didn't know his career ERA, you would have said that he was a lock for the HOF. (which you wouldn't have said when Andre Dawson retired)
If voters can look past Andre Dawson's pathetic .323 OBP, they should look past Morris' 3.90 ERA.
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You can throw out and use all the stats you want but I don't think that's the end all to determining whether a guy gets into the HOF or not. You have to look at how the player was viewed during the time he played. Morris was considered one of the best pitchers in his era and easily one of the most clutch. I think you know better to think those {Kenny Rogers, Jamie Moyer, Frank Tanana, Dennis Martinez; similar ERA+} guys you listed are in the same class as Morris.
Safe to say, I don't care about clutch a whole lot, or reputation. Morris is basically pitching Joe Carter (ERA+ and OPS+ are both 105). As far as being the best pitcher of the 80s, I really don't know what makes him better in that time frame than Blyleven, Valenzuela, or Ryan.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Originally Posted by
rockiesfan4ever
I heard Todd Helton's name
He's getting my HOF vote if he played 2 or 3 more seasons at his current pace. My important hypothetical one. Right after I recover from the beating I'm gonna get from AJ for not voting for Larry Walker.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
haveacigar
Here is what I was told when I said that Morris doesn't belong in the hall
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When Jack Morris retired, if you didn't know his career ERA, you would have said that he was a lock for the HOF."
LOL. Yeah, if you're ignorant of a player's actual value, you may well think he was a lock for the HoF. And you'd be wrong.
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If voters can look past Andre Dawson's pathetic .323 OBP, they should look past Morris' 3.90 ERA.
A hitter's job consists of various areas - getting on base, defense, baserunning, hitting for power, etc. It's possible to be deficient in one of those areas yet be good enough in the other areas to outweigh that. A pitcher really has just one area that makes up 98% of his job - preventing runs....and Morris was helped greatly even there by a fantastic up the middle defense of Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, and Chet Lemon...and he still was only slightly above average.
It's funny, with all these non-deserving players that have gained traction in recent years like Jim Rice and Jack Morris, the writers use the argument that you had to have seen them play and had to be there and all that nonsense...yet the writers closest to their careers voted for them less than the writers do now. :rolleyes:
Quote:
Originally Posted by haveacigar
Safe to say, I don't care about clutch a whole lot, or reputation. Morris is basically pitching Joe Carter (ERA+ and OPS+ are both 105). As far as being the best pitcher of the 80s, I really don't know what makes him better in that time frame than Blyleven, Valenzuela, or Ryan.
I don't think Carter is a fair comparison at all. An innings eating 105 ERA+ pitcher is way way way better than a 105 OPS+ corner outfielder.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Regarding the "best pitcher in 1980's" thing, I did this comparison yesterday on AIM with metsguy.
With a minimum of 1,500 innings, Jack Morris is 13th in ERA+ in the 1980's. With the same minimum, in the 1990's, Kevin Appier is 5th in ERA+.
It's true that 1,500 innings was less in the 1980's than it was the 1990's, so let's raise the 1980 minimum to 2,000. Morris is now 7th. It's true that he has about 400 more innings than most of the other guys, but it's only 100 more than Dave Stieb, who beats him 127-109 in ERA+.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
I don't think Carter is a fair comparison at all. An innings eating 105 ERA+ pitcher is way way way better than a 105 OPS+ corner outfielder.
Maybe from a WAR perspective, but from a perception standpoint, I think it's quite valid. Above average players with long careers who are overrated because of their counting stats and clutch reputations. Morris might be more above average than Carter (I don't know what Carter's defense was like), but that wasn't the comparison I was making.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Jack Morris, Mr Clutch, Mr. Groove It When Game Out of Reach:
Code:
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
RISP 540 3817 3236 1265 805 128 21 91 74 26 406 605 1.49 .249 .326 .386 .711 1248 106 19 42 114 99 .269 106
--- 549 9388 8549 225 2064 345 58 223 0 0 812 1513 1.86 .241 .309 .374 .683 3194 0 27 0 0 0 .270 97
Men On 549 6730 5894 1486 1503 227 33 166 373 142 578 965 1.67 .255 .319 .389 .708 2294 299 31 113 114 99 .274 104
1-- 549 2913 2658 221 698 99 12 75 299 116 172 360 2.09 .263 .310 .394 .704 1046 193 12 71 0 0 .280 103
-2- 478 1403 1206 249 278 43 7 38 18 8 170 235 1.38 .231 .330 .372 .703 449 0 10 17 0 43 .257 103
--3 313 508 410 208 109 18 3 9 1 2 61 71 1.16 .266 .345 .390 .735 160 0 4 3 30 8 .278 113
12- 423 892 807 237 198 28 6 28 13 5 61 137 2.25 .245 .301 .399 .700 322 55 3 21 0 1 .265 101
1-3 300 452 377 230 112 19 2 9 39 11 30 67 2.23 .297 .316 .430 .746 162 32 1 0 44 1 .299 114
-23 220 318 228 165 58 8 3 2 0 0 70 56 0.80 .254 .406 .342 .748 78 0 1 0 19 46 .296 120
123 164 244 208 176 50 12 0 5 3 0 14 39 2.79 .240 .263 .370 .634 77 19 0 1 21 0 .243 81
--3lt 2 out 373 807 594 529 193 34 1 12 3 1 91 107 1.18 .325 .359 .446 .805 265 51 4 4 114 33 .307 132
--3 2 out 378 715 629 212 136 23 7 13 0 0 84 126 1.50 .216 .310 .337 .648 212 0 2 0 0 22 .251 88
Code:
I Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
High Lvrge 468 2754 2423 676 629 93 10 61 10 8 198 402 2.03 .260 .311 .382 .692 925 157 11 57 65 42 .280 100
Medium Lvrge 544 7413 6657 690 1626 269 45 180 13 7 648 1148 1.77 .244 .312 .379 .691 2525 110 24 45 39 43 .269 99
Low Lvrge 547 5951 5363 306 1312 210 36 148 1 0 544 928 1.71 .245 .316 .380 .696 2038 32 23 11 10 14 .271 101
Code:
I Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
2 outs RISP 512 1736 1520 472 341 52 16 42 25 10 207 297 1.43 .224 .321 .363 .683 551 0 9 0 0 51 .253 98
Late Close 279 1852 1670 183 397 55 3 45 33 13 138 275 1.99 .238 .297 .355 .652 593 51 7 26 11 26 .259 88
Tie Game 492 4718 4196 468 1043 174 24 100 130 50 433 719 1.66 .249 .319 .373 .692 1565 86 19 34 36 39 .276 100
Within 1 R 519 8980 8002 934 1955 315 42 205 248 96 796 1414 1.78 .244 .313 .371 .684 2969 156 34 79 69 71 .271 98
Within 2 R 528 11709 10441 1236 2581 403 64 269 314 123 1033 1789 1.73 .247 .315 .375 .691 3919 220 45 101 89 84 .273 99
Within 3 R 541 13499 12064 1439 2978 469 74 319 350 137 1173 2064 1.76 .247 .314 .377 .691 4552 259 51 109 102 91 .272 100
Within 4 R 544 14604 13059 1555 3222 518 86 346 363 141 1270 2244 1.77 .247 .314 .379 .693 4950 275 54 111 110 97 .272 100
Margin 4 R 155 1514 1384 156 345 54 5 43 10 1 120 234 1.95 .249 .310 .389 .699 538 24 4 2 4 2 .272 101
Late & Close are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
14.08 WPA total for career
0.68 Clutch total for career
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
kind of funny, but in OOTP, you can state min career numbers that can give a guy automatic entry into the hall of fame
500 homers, 3000 hits, 300 wins, 3000 strike outs etc...
and you can add criteria to it. such as you can't be in the hall of fame with a career on base average lower than .250 for example. So even if you had the 500 homers, but only reached base a quarter of the time, you wouldn't make it.
for ERA, the default career era in the game:
3.80
Morris doesn't make it.
Blyleven does easily in the game.
just thought I would share how the games default wouldn't even let Morris in, and it would let Dawson in....
if you are comparing career obp for Dawson to career era of Morris.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
career OBP of .250? Who does that keep out of the Hall, Dane Sardinha?
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
haveacigar
career OBP of .250? Who does that keep out of the Hall, Dane Sardinha?
hahaa, I was just throwing out a number, not sure what the default is, I don't remember, maybe it's more like .300....just guessing again though.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
What worse the fact the Alomar didn't get in or the fact the osome actually voted for Kevin Appier for the HOF ?
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Originally Posted by
gRYFYN1
What worse the fact the Alomar didn't get in or the fact the osome actually voted for Kevin Appier for the HOF ?
Alomar by far. Peeps need to lay off the Appier hate. He's not a hall of famer but he deserved to get A vote. Hentgen getting a vote was worse.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
gRYFYN1
What worse the fact the Alomar didn't get in or the fact the osome actually voted for Kevin Appier for the HOF ?
Appier isn't a ridiculous vote (though I wouldn't vote for him) - so I guess it is Alomar.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Yeah, I'm not quite sure what all the flapping about Appier getting one measly vote is about. Eric Karros got two. David Segui got one. Ellis Burks got two. Andres Galaragga got 22. Kevin Appier was better than all of them. I guess people forget (or don't know) that Appier was quite a great pitcher in his prime. He was jobbed out of the 1993 Cy Young award, and was a very good pitcher from 1990-1997.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Tang must have a vote for David Segui to get a vote.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
http://deadspin.com/5442809/i-really...even-reactions
Poor Bert. At least some of the comments are awesome.
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2011: "**** it, I'm starting my own Hall of Fame for pitchers with 200 or more complete games."
2012: "How the **** am I still waiting to get into my own Hall of Fame?!?"
2013: [Goes on three-state killing spree]
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I think the big thing holding back his election is how awful he was in R.B.I. Baseball on NES. I don't care if your numbers look good, if your 8-bit persona (avatar?) can't beat the California Angels because Reggie Jackson takes you yard every time he comes up, you don't deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
One can argue that since it's the Hall of FAME it should be for the most FAMOUS players, not necessarily for the best ones.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Originally Posted by
metsguy234
One can argue that since it's the Hall of FAME it should be for the most FAMOUS players, not necessarily for the best ones.
Sure, one can argue that, but that'd be stupid and wrong.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Originally Posted by
metsguy234
One can argue that since it's the Hall of FAME it should be for the most FAMOUS players, not necessarily for the best ones.
I've never heard anyone involved with the process argue that. They certainly could, but they haven't.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Originally Posted by
haveacigar
I've never heard anyone involved with the process argue that. They certainly could, but they haven't.
I have. Multiple times.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
I hate that I'm agreeing with Metsguy, but I don't see how it is stupid or wrong. I can't find any direction on who is supposed to get into the Hall of Fame, (like the Cy Young direction to name the best pitcher of the year, or the MVP to name the player most valuable to his team), and people can vote however they want. There are a variety of reasons to honour particular players - and baseball skill/value doesn't have to be the only basis for induction.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
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Originally Posted by
kenny1234
I hate that I'm agreeing with Metsguy, but I don't see how it is stupid or wrong. I can't find any direction on who is supposed to get into the Hall of Fame, (like the Cy Young direction to name the best pitcher of the year, or the MVP to name the player most valuable to his team), and people can vote however they want. There are a variety of reasons to honour particular players - and baseball skill/value doesn't have to be the only basis for induction.
"Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."
"Fame" isn't one of the criteria, and I think it's quite obvious that every "Hall of Fame" isn't meant to honor someone for being famous but rather honor someone (and confer fame UPON) for being excellent at or important to whatever the particular Hall is for.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
veterans committee rules
couldn't find writers rules
being the most famous is retarded
who wants a hall of fame full of Jacoby Ellsbury's (trying to think of ovrtly loved players)
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Rules enacted in August 2001 provided that the Veterans Committee would be expanded from its previous 15 members, elected to limited terms, to include the full living membership of the Hall, including recipients of the Ford C. Frick Award and J. G. Taylor Spink Award. Elections for players retired over 20 years would be held every other year, with elections of non-players (managers, umpires and executives) held every fourth year on a "composite ballot". No candidates were elected from either ballot in 2003, nor from the players' ballot in 2005, leading to criticism from the press and public that the voters were being too restrictive in evaluating candidates. The Committee voted in 2007 on players who were active no later than 1985. Candidates were eligible for the composite ballot if they had been retired from the sport for five years, or if they were at least 65 years of age and had been retired for at least six months.
The Committee voted on players again in preparation for the 2009 inductions, but that election was conducted under significantly different rules enacted in July 2007.[14] The most important changes were:
* The players ballot was restricted to players whose careers started in 1943 or later.
* The sole voting body was composed of living Hall of Fame members. Frick and Spink Award winners, who are considered "honorees", would no longer vote on the players ballot.
* The number of players to be considered was considerably reduced.
* A separate election was held for the 2009 inductions, to be repeated every five years thereafter, for players whose careers started before 1943. The voting body was a 12-member panel selected by the Hall of Fame Board.
For a more complete discussion of the changes, see the Veterans Committee article.
The Committee was scheduled to vote on non-players in 2011, but the July 2007 rules also dramatically affected the voting process for non-players. A 16-member panel of Hall of Famers, executives, and veteran media members voted on managers and umpires again prior to the 2008 inductions. A separate 12-member panel, drawn from the same sources as the managers/umpires panel but with a greater concentration of executives, simultaneously voted on executives. Both panels will vote in the future for inductions in even-numbered years.[15]
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
"Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."
"Fame" isn't one of the criteria, and I think it's quite obvious that every "Hall of Fame" isn't meant to honor someone for being famous but rather honor someone (and confer fame UPON) for being excellent at or important to whatever the particular Hall is for.
I agree... it isn't intended to be a hall of famous people, but rather people made famous by being memorialized there.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Marty Noble is defending his answer on mlb network
and basically kept saying he is the best second basemen he has seen since Morgan....and plans to vote for him next year, but didn't think he derserved it because of two spitting incidents.
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
I just don't see why would you vote for him in the future, but won't now.
you say he is a hall of famer, but you leave him off the ballot?
He says that because Alomar spit on an umpire ON the field, some of the assholes in the hall he said, did bad things off the field. Alomar did this on the field.
and that Alomar became conceded in his later years as a Met and that he just didn't think he deserved to be in the hall yet.
But he does next year Marty?
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Re: Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jeffy25
I just don't see why would you vote for him in the future, but won't now.
you say he is a hall of famer, but you leave him off the ballot?
Maybe it has to do with that integrity thing I guess.
