Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee

http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/d/dawsa001.htm
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/w/walkl001.htm

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Also, do those WAR calculations include a defensive metric? I suspect that Dawson was a better fielder, mainly because he played CF for a number of years.

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Defense and arm. Dawson gets +37 from TotalZone and +32 from his arm. Walker gets +41 Total Zone and +55 arm. While Dawson had big seasons as a center fielder (+12, +13, +14 TZ), Walker was consistently in the +6/+7 range throughout most of his career while Dawson dropped to around -2 per year for most of his time as a right fielder.

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I'm also not sure I buy that Dawson was below replacement level his last five seasons. Below average, maybe.

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It's really his last 4 seasons. In 1992, he had 2.4 WAR. It was negative in each of the next 4 years, and I think that's not only reasonable but obvious. In three of those years, he had an OPS+ of 92, and it was 82 in the other year, while playing mostly as a designated hitter but also a right fielder and a pinch hitter - 171 games as a DH, 67 in right field, 12 in left and then a bunch of pinch hit appearances. An aggregate 89 OPS+ (.260/.300/.438) over his final 1,111 plate appearances, 717 as a designated hitter...that's really bad.


I'm also don't share your concerns about Coors Field in regards to WAR. None of the other major hitters from those late 90's Rockies teams score high on WAR. Dante Bichette, for example, has a CAREER WAR of 2 - 2.7 of which came in 1993. In 1995 when he placed 2nd in the MVP voting, he had a WAR of 0.3, which I think would easily qualify as the most absurd 2nd place MVP finish ever. Andres Galarraga two seasons of 5+ WAR came in Montreal and Atlanta. His 1993 when he hit .370 comes out as 3.5. Vinny Castilla's career high was 4.5 in 1998. His two 40 homer seasons in 1996 and 1997 come out as 8 and 7 runs above average offensively.

The only Rockies that do particularly well in WAR are Walker and Helton, and I have no trouble believing that that's because they were two legitimately great players....and Helton gets a lot of his value from his superb fielding (+81 for his career according to TZ). I think you're underrating Walker and Helton thanks to Coors Field.

yay Helton and Walker!

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

The only Rockies that do particularly well in WAR are Walker and Helton, and I have no trouble believing that that's because they were two legitimately great players....and Helton gets a lot of his value from his superb fielding (+81 for his career according to TZ). I think you're underrating Walker and Helton thanks to Coors Field.

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That's entirely possible. I'm sure I'll reconsider when it comes time to look at the ballot for next season.

Jon Heyman on not voting Bly

"I didn't vote Bly because he is in the top 2 percent of all baseball players to ever play the game, and I think you need to be in the top 1 percent of all time baseball players to make it."
He then added
"He never lead the league in wins, and he never felt like a hall of famer to me"

and then Victor Rojas schooled him on stats.....

I hear some pretty weak excuses

Jon Heyman rides the short bus.

Blyleven is a 300 win pitcher. He might be 13 wins short of actually getting 300, but for all intents and purposes, he's a 300 win pitcher. All 300 win pitchers should be in the hall of fame. All 300 win pitchers are the best of the best.

You know, at least when KLaw and Cameron act arrogantly, they at least know something about what they're talking. Heyman acts like an arrogant douche and he wouldn't know a great pitcher if one threw a fastball at his junk.

The dumber thing than not voting for Blyleven (it's conceivable that you're a very small Hall guy and Blyleven doesn't fit into such a small Hall) is voting for Jack Morris but not Blyleven. It's completely unjustifiable by any rational thought process.

Then what about Tommy John??

Does he deserve to be in?

Luis Tiant?

I mean if we are splitting hairs, and I'm just playing devil's advocate...



p.s. I have never really liked Heyman, and he has a history of making his "bold predictions", and never being correct

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

The dumber thing than not voting for Blyleven (it's conceivable that you're a very small Hall guy and Blyleven doesn't fit into such a small Hall) is voting for Jack Morris but not Blyleven. It's completely unjustifiable by any rational thought process.

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did Heyman do that?


oh wait...............yes he did!

Because Morris was possibly the best pitcher in the 80's!

I guess Morris is in the top 1 percent of baseball players that have played throughout time, but Bly and his 3700 strike outs and 287 wins on small market teams is not in that 1%

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

Because Morris was possibly the best pitcher in the 80's!

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He wasn't. Dave Stieb was.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

He wasn't. Dave Stieb was.

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sarcasm

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

sarcasm

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I would've taken it as sarcasm if you didn't include the word "possibly." lol

I heard Todd Helton's name

Here is what I was told when I said that Morris doesn't belong in the hall:

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I'm not trying to be condescending, but you were born near the end of Morris' career. Honestly, you can't just look at the numbers with Morris. For an entire decade, if you were a MLB manager and you needed to win one game, Morris was on the mound. He started nearly every playoff and WS round and he started 14 opening days in a row.

I was reading Bill James since the mid-80s and am a big moneyball guy. However, for some players, you have to look past all the statistics. When Jack Morris retired, if you didn't know his career ERA, you would have said that he was a lock for the HOF. (which you wouldn't have said when Andre Dawson retired)

If voters can look past Andre Dawson's pathetic .323 OBP, they should look past Morris' 3.90 ERA.

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You can throw out and use all the stats you want but I don't think that's the end all to determining whether a guy gets into the HOF or not. You have to look at how the player was viewed during the time he played. Morris was considered one of the best pitchers in his era and easily one of the most clutch. I think you know better to think those {Kenny Rogers, Jamie Moyer, Frank Tanana, Dennis Martinez; similar ERA+} guys you listed are in the same class as Morris.

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Safe to say, I don't care about clutch a whole lot, or reputation. Morris is basically pitching Joe Carter (ERA+ and OPS+ are both 105). As far as being the best pitcher of the 80s, I really don't know what makes him better in that time frame than Blyleven, Valenzuela, or Ryan.

Or Dave Stieb.