Andre Dawson - lone HoF inductee

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Originally Posted by cfeedback

My only question is how do you judge how many runs he saved by runners not even bothering to try to advance because of his arm? I don't see any accurate way to gauge that other than by watching someone play and seeing how base runners held up rather than take a chance against him.

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You can see how often players went first to third, first to home etc and compare it to against other teams....you can actually see that.


just saying. ;)

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Are you aware that it's taken repeated long essays from guys like Rich Lederer to boost Blyleven's vote total? :p


Take how many times a ball was hit to Dawson with, say, a runner on first base. Then find out how many times that runner advanced to third base (or home) and was successful and compare it to the average percent of time that a runner advances on that type of hit (deep, short, etc.). If Dawson's reputation caused less runners to attempt to go for the extra base, a below average percentage of players would've reached third or home.

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or like how HGM just said :p

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

When someone says Morris deserves to get in because he was the ace of three world series teams....what do you say?

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I like Tananananananana better. :)

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

When someone says Morris deserves to get in because he was the ace of three world series teams....what do you say?

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**** you :P

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

When someone says Morris deserves to get in because he was the ace of three world series teams....what do you say?

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That he gave up way more runs over his career than comparable pitchers of his era.

The problem with Morris is that, it's not as though guys with comparable stats to him are getting in. The guys who have comparable career stats are getting bounced off the 1st ballot and getting zero respect: Appier, Tanana, Dennis Martinez, Chuck Finley, these guys barely got any votes at all.

if you had to choose one for a hall of famer....Edgar Martinez or Tim Raines?

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

That's pretty creepy because I just wrote the following on another message board:

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same things can be said about guys like Dawson, Martinez

What percentage of votes knocks a guy off the ballot?

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

That he gave up way more runs over his career than comparable pitchers of his era.

The problem with Morris is that, it's not as though guys with comparable stats to him are getting in. The guys who have comparable career stats are getting bounced off the 1st ballot and getting zero respect: Appier, Tanana, Dennis Martinez, Chuck Finley, these guys barely got any votes at all.

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I agree (and personally would not vote Morris in, or Appier, or Tananna, or Martinez....etc) but many will argue for Morris saying that he had the winning percentage, and that he kind of grooved the ball when they were well ahead to get the game over..

I think that argument just says he was on good enough teams that he didn't have to fight like Blyleven for wins.

Bly had 16 1-0 wins.

sorry for all the posts, I was catching up.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

What percentage of votes knocks a guy off the ballot?

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< 5%

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

if you had to choose one for a hall of famer....Edgar Martinez or Tim Raines?

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well, both deserve it, but Raines moreso.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I agree (and personally would not vote Morris in, or Appier, or Tananna, or Martinez....etc) but many will argue for Morris saying that he had the winning percentage, and that he kind of grooved the ball when they were well ahead to get the game over..

I think that argument just says he was on good enough teams that he didn't have to fight like Blyleven for wins.

Bly had 16 1-0 wins.

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Blyleven has multiple years where he had a sub-3 ERA and didn't have a winning record. I don't know how anyone could possible blame Blyleven for his poor winning percentage (people do it anyway, however)

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Well, Raffy is getting the shaft because of roids. Forget him, no one's voting for him after that **** he pulled in front of Congress.

Of Bagwell, Walker, Palmeiro, Olerud, and Brown, I really think only Bagwell and Palmeiro deserve it. Olerud didn't have the longevity, neither did Brown. Walker wasn't doing anything special until he got to Colorado. Bagwell played as long as Olerud but his numbers are just so ridiculous that he gets in. Palmeiro has all the numbers, but you know how that's gonna go.

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Brown didn't have longevity? :confused: :confused: 1986 through 2005 is not enough longevity for a starting pitcher? :confused: Take a look at the numbers. Absolute Grade A front of the rotation stud. Look particularly at 1995 through 2003 and look beyond the wins and losses and tell me you don't see a HOFer. 1995 - 2003 peripherals:

154 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 3.63 K/BB

All during one of the largest offensive explosions the game has ever seen. Career peripherals:

127 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.66 K/BB

All of this with almost 3300 IP in an era of offensive zaniness. Sure, he had the personality of a prickly pear, but how exactly does that differentiate him from 50% of those already in Cooperstown? Yep, he's a HOFer.

Larry Walker makes the guy who went in today look like chopped liver. Were his numbers inflated by the Coors Field effect? No doubt. Interestingly enough though in his epic 1997 season, he was a slightly better hitter away from Coors Field. He had a career OPS+ of 140 to Dawson's 119, with a career wRC+ of 145 to Dawson's 120. Dawson had two seasons where his OPS+ eclipsed Walker's career mark: 1981 and 1983. He had only one where his wRC+ eclipsed Walker's career number: 1981. Walker also had all the skills Dawson had. He was a marginally better fielder over the course of his career and definitely had a better arm than Dawson. Their SB/CS numbers are pretty even if you level the playing time. The number that sticks out like a sore thumb is his career .400 OBP to Dawson's .323. Walker's career OBP is 87 points higher than his career AVG, while Dawson's is only a putrid 44 points higher. I don't get how you can say that on the one hand Dawson is a HOFer but Larry Walker isn't. The numbers just aren't in your favour. I'm surprised to hear this coming from you. Your posts are usually way better than this.

The only guy of the five I mentioned that isn't a surefire no doubt HOFer is Olerud. Period. That doesn't mean any of the five will get in though as we should know all too well by now. ;)

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

Brown didn't have longevity? :confused: :confused: 1986 through 2005 is not enough longevity for a starting pitcher? :confused: Take a look at the numbers. Absolute Grade A front of the rotation stud. Look particularly at 1995 through 2003 and look beyond the wins and losses and tell me you don't see a HOFer. 1995 - 2003 peripherals:

154 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 3.63 K/BB

All during one of the largest offensive explosions the game has ever seen. Career peripherals:

127 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.66 K/BB

All of this with almost 3300 IP in an era of offensive zaniness. Sure, he had the personality of a prickly pear, but how exactly does that differentiate him from 50% of those already in Cooperstown? Yep, he's a HOFer.

Larry Walker makes the guy who went in today look like chopped liver. Were his numbers inflated by the Coors Field effect? No doubt. Interestingly enough though in his epic 1997 season, he was a slightly better hitter away from Coors Field. He had a career OPS+ of 140 to Dawson's 119, with a career wRC+ of 145 to Dawson's 120. Dawson had two seasons where his OPS+ eclipsed Walker's career mark: 1981 and 1983. He had only one where his wRC+ eclipsed Walker's career number: 1981. Walker also had all the skills Dawson had. He was a marginally better fielder over the course of his career and definitely had a better arm than Dawson. Their SB/CS numbers are pretty even if you level the playing time. The number that sticks out like a sore thumb is his career .400 OBP to Dawson's .323. Walker's career OBP is 87 points higher than his career AVG, while Dawson's is only a putrid 44 points higher. I don't get how you can say that on the one hand Dawson is a HOFer but Larry Walker isn't. The numbers just aren't in your favour. I'm surprised to hear this coming from you. Your posts are usually way better than this.

The only guy of the five I mentioned that isn't a surefire no doubt HOFer is Olerud. Period. That doesn't mean any of the five will get in though as we should know all too well by now. ;)

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Walker = Hall of Famer
Brown = borderline, and a doubtful IMO....close, no hall of famer, and I honestly doubt he gets in....I am not convinced yet.

Olerud, sorry Coach, don't see it.

I think McGwire, Palmerio will get close once Bonds gets in.

Bagwell, probably will get in.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Walker wasn't doing anything special until he got to Colorado.

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He had three 4 WAR seasons with Montreal (5 in Colorado). Not HoF caliber, but still strong. 67.1 for his career which puts him around Duke Snider, Tony Gwynn, Jesse Burkett and Jim Thome.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

Interesting question:

Will he wear an Expo or a Cub hat?

11 years as an Expo
6 years as a Cubbie

MVP as a Cubbie....he just said he is not really sure yet.

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Should be an Expo. He doesn't get to pick, though. The HoF does, though they usually take the players wishes into account...but do override them sometimes. For example, if I recall correctly, Boggs wanted Devil Ray hat but the HoF said "No, that's dumb. Here's your Boston hat."

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

When someone says Morris deserves to get in because he was the ace of three world series teams....what do you say?

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"He wasn't." Dan Petry was slightly better than him in 1984. In 1991, Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson were both better. In 1992, Juan Guzman (though Morris pitched 60 more innings, but Guzman put up a 156 ERA+ over 180 innings while Morris was league average over 240) and Jimmy Key.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

if you had to choose one for a hall of famer....Edgar Martinez or Tim Raines?

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Tim Raines.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

What percentage of votes knocks a guy off the ballot?

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Less than 5.

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

Brown didn't have longevity? 1986 through 2005 is not enough longevity for a starting pitcher? Take a look at the numbers. Absolute Grade A front of the rotation stud. Look particularly at 1995 through 2003 and look beyond the wins and losses and tell me you don't see a HOFer. 1995 - 2003 peripherals:

154 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 3.63 K/BB

All during one of the largest offensive explosions the game has ever seen. Career peripherals:

127 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.66 K/BB

All of this with almost 3300 IP in an era of offensive zaniness. Sure, he had the personality of a prickly pear, but how exactly does that differentiate him from 50% of those already in Cooperstown? Yep, he's a HOFer.

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Kevin Brown's numbers are incredibly similar to Curt Schilling, The difference is that Schilling has 5 more innings.... they have the same 127 ERA+. I'd rate Schilling as the better HoF candidate because of the postseason, but your HoF line is awfully thin if you draw it between the two. John Smoltz and Mike Mussina are two other guys with very similar stats (though about 200 extra innings). All 4 guys are deserving HoFers to me. I think all but Kevin Brown will make it in....because Brown "doesn't feel like a HoFer." It's a shame.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

Marty Noble on Alomar "Possibly the greatest second basemen since Joe Morgan, but I am going to make him pay for two spitting incidents, and leave him off my ballot for the first year."
Basically, he will vote for him next year, but left him off this year, bc of a spitting incident!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If you're gonna vote for him ever, vote now...why wouldn't you?

****ing idiot.

way to "punish" someone for slightly negative moments......

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Of course writer who shall heretofore be referred to as idiot writer conveniently glosses over the fact that since the incident Alomar and Hirschbeck have become friends and the Alomar brothers have raised money for a foundation the Hirschbecks started for people affected by the rare brain disease that killed their son at age 8. He could choose to see the wonderful good that has come from a regrettable incident, but oh no, he has to drown in his own venom and lash out at an athlete for one incident in an absolutely brilliant 17 year career. Wow, how bitter do you have to be to do that? Bye the bye idiot writer, Hirschbeck actually called Alomar last night to wish him luck with the HOF vote. Looks like the main combatants have put it well behind them. Maybe you should too. Idiot.