Selective Application of Statistics

An article that reminded me of this

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Originally Posted by dickay

This is typical of many of the newage statheads though. While I personally respect the sabremetrics and feel they have a very important role in todays game, I know they aren't the end all. Whenever someone points out an obvious flaw, like for example any system that says Cameron was worth 19 mil and 25% more valuable than Jay Bay (who some actually talked about for a short time in the MVP category), the statheads combat by calling those people stupid and ignorant.

I would bet that you'd be surprised at just how many people disagreed with you on Camerons value. I'd actually bet that many who calculate these stats would admit that Cameron being 25% more valuable than Bay is kind of absurd and that something is wrong. Obviously, Theo did...as he gave him 7 mil less per year than he offered Bay.

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http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/12/...-of-statistics

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The point here seems to be that advanced metrics are used as a weapon to trumpet players like Cameron who, atleast in the eyes of the MMO writer, isn't as good as Fangraphs suggests. This couldn't be further from the truth. Advanced stats are cited only because the methodologies behind their calculation have been investigated, questioned and eventually accepted by the best minds in the sabermetric community. If I invented a stat and continued citing it despite being discredited by Tom Tango or Colin Wyers, my credibility would be shot.

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In the case of Cameron and Jason Bay, reliable statistics show that the gap between them isn't as large as many think. That this doesn't jibe with most fans' perceptions of the two players has little bearing on whether it is true.

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Lies, damned lies, and statistics
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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions.
The term is part of a phrase attributed to the 19th Century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, among others, and later popularized in the United States by, among others, Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The phrase is not found in Disraeli's works nor is it known within his lifetime and for years afterward. Many coiners have been proposed. The most plausible, on current evidence, is Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843-1911).

I tend to have a poor view of any metric that tries to derive monetary value from a player's values on the field. I think that doing so reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of economics.

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In the case of Cameron and Jason Bay, reliable statistics show that the gap between them isn't as large as many think. That this doesn't jibe with most fans' perceptions of the two players has little bearing on whether it is true.

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I appreciate the article and find it refreshing that others have the same issue I have with a system that says Cameron was 20-25% more valuable than Bay was last year.

While certainly not a valid stat in comparison, Bay was amongst the AL MVP candidates, finishing in the top 10. I couldn't find Cameron in the top 40 in the NL.

Cameron does provide alot of defense at a position where thats a priority, but I think there is too much credence given to that in the statistical analysis. There is no way in my mind Cameron could be as valuable, let alone 20-25% more valuable last year. I think its more of a statistical anomaly that highlights a flaw. The "reliable statistics" are subject to opinion as to how valuable defense is. Of course statiticians must defend this despite the obvious.

Are you saying you are agreeing with the baseball economist JC Bradbury when he claims Francouer is worth $12m/yr?

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Originally Posted by dickay

While certainly not a valid stat in comparison, Bay was amongst the AL MVP candidates, finishing in the top 10. I couldn't find Cameron in the top 40 in the NL.

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In the case of Cameron and Jason Bay, reliable statistics show that the gap between them isn't as large as many think. That this doesn't jibe with most fans' perceptions of the two players has little bearing on whether it is true.

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The writer's still largely evaluate based on AVG-HR-RBI. They certainly don't take defense into account on anything more than a very cursory level. That Jason Bay fairs well in a writer's vote isn't evidence of anything other than the writers poor methods of player evaluation.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

The writer's still largely evaluate based on AVG-HR-RBI. They certainly don't take defense into account on anything more than a very cursory level. That Jason Bay fairs better in a writer's vote isn't evidence of anything other than the writers poor methods of player evaluation.

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Originally Posted by dickay View Post
While certainly not a valid stat in comparison, Bay was amongst the AL MVP candidates, finishing in the top 10. I couldn't find Cameron in the top 40 in the NL.

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agreed

Curious, who had the more valuable career...Tony Fernandez or Ozzie Smith?

Ozzie.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Curious, who had the more valuable career...Tony Fernandez or Ozzie Smith?

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Tony Fernandez if you go by hitting.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

Tony Fernandez if you go by hitting.

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I didn't say hitting. I said "more valuable."

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I didn't say hitting. I said "more valuable."

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Well if you include defense (ugh) then it's probably Smith.

I'm interested to see where this is going. I didn't check any stats but Ozzie Smith is one of the all time greats...

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

Well if you include defense (ugh) then it's probably Smith.

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Sorry that you're not a fan of including all aspects of players when evaluating them.

Or, to make the comparison a bit more apt, Ozzie Smith or Miguel Tejada?

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Or, to make the comparison a bit more apt, Ozzie Smith or Miguel Tejada?

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Miguel Tejada

Ozzie Smith. He is a Hall of famer. i don't think Tejada is their yet.

Ozzie Smith has a cooler nickname and I evaluate all players on "coolest nicknames".

Currently, O-Dawg is the best player in the league.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Or, to make the comparison a bit more apt, Ozzie Smith or Miguel Tejada?

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you like to draw it as someone either values defense or doesn't. i don't think thats the case for many. the issue is how much value is placed upon it and how much offense with OK defense offsets superb defense and an OK bat. Now i give statiticians alot of cred for devising methods to evaluate it. I'm not a fool though to believe they are perfect, the end all, and without fault.

Now you're talking careers...thus far the discussion has been based upon one season and one season alone. Last year, IMO there is no way Cameron was worth as much, let alone 20-25% more than Bay. Over the course of their careers...maybe. Dunno, i haven't looked.

Regarding Ozzie & Fernandez its Ozzie IMO easily. Fernandez wasn't a much better hitter than Oz who IMO gets a bad wrap offensively. I don't think he was a major liability at the plate, and had great speed on the basepaths. I dont remember fernandez as a major defensive liability though either, at least not early in his career?? As for Tejada, its very close. Some years I'd take Tejada, other years Oz. If forced to choose for a whole career I'd take Tejada. His consistent top offense at a position where offense is a premium over about a decade long period offsets his obviously worse defense than Ozzie. Its not a "slam dunk by a long shot type decision" because SS defense is very very important and Oz was great, but its Tejada.

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Originally Posted by dickay

Now you're talking careers...thus far the discussion has been based upon one season and one season alone. Last year, IMO there is no way Cameron was worth as much, let alone 20-25% more than Bay. Over the course of their careers...maybe. Dunno, i haven't looked.

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I don't get this at all. If it's possible for a career, how is it so crazy for a single season?

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Originally Posted by dickay

Regarding Ozzie & Fernandez its Ozzie IMO easily. Fernandez wasn't a much better hitter than Oz who IMO gets a bad wrap offensively. I don't think he was a major liability at the plate, and had great speed on the basepaths. I dont remember fernandez as a major defensive liability though either, at least not early in his career??

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Ozzie had a career OPS+ of 87. Fernandez's career OPS+ was 101. It's a fairly significant difference. Fernandez wasn't a defensive liability at all. He was a fine player. But, yes, it's Ozzie, easily, even though Fernandez was clearly the better offensive player.

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Originally Posted by dickay

As for Tejada, its very close. Some years I'd take Tejada, other years Oz. If forced to choose for a whole career I'd take Tejada. His consistent top offense at a position where offense is a premium over about a decade long period offsets his obviously worse defense than Ozzie. Its not a "slam dunk by a long shot type decision" because SS defense is very very important and Oz was great, but its Tejada.

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Really? So, would you support Tejada for the Hall of Fame?

Honestly, I'm a bit shocked at that answer. I was expecting you to answer Ozzie, as that is what I would expect from practically any baseball fan - the average fan actually overrates Ozzie. Anyway, I don't see how it's Tejada. Yes, he's very clearly the better offensive player, but Ozzie was the best defensive shortstop to ever play the game, and that's at perhaps the most important defensive position. I think it is a "slam dunk by a long shot type decision" in favor of Ozzie.

But I guess there are some people that will always underrate the importance of defense.

Using WAR from baseballprojection.com (a stat that you may be pleased to hear has Jason Bay at 5.2 wins and Mike Cameron at 3.6 last year, because TotalZone shows Bay as being a slightly above average defender in 2009 despite being poor in both 2007 and 2008, where Cameron beats him both years in WAR), Ozzie comes out with 64.7 WAR for his career. Tejada is at 40.4 so far. Of course, since Tejada is still playing, you can't straight compare career totals like that. Smith averaged 3.4 WAR per year, compared to 3.1 for Tejada. Smith's five best seasons total 29.9 WAR, as he surpassed the 5 WAR threshold 5 times. Tejada surpassed that just twice and his five peak seasons total 25.6 WAR.

People misuse the fangraph monetary values all the time.

It's not a suggestion that that's how much that player should get in their next contract. One year's dollar value isn't an absolute indicator of that player's overall value, in the same way that one year of performance doesn't equal overall performance.

All the dollar value says is that in this specific time frame, this player's production (defined by WAR) was worth X amount of dollars compared to the average cost of wins by free agency. It's really just an easier way to visualize a player's WAR, because the dollar value is calculated by just multiplying WAR by the average cost of a win. It also is a handy way to judge a team's return on investment when you compare it to the player's salary. But that's all it is, a handy visualization.

If you're complaining that Cameron is too close to Jason Bay in one season (I don't know what there really is to complain about, given the obvious defensive differences between the two), then you should be taking issue with the WAR calculation, not the assigned dollar value.

Houston, I definitely agree that people underrate the importance of defense, do you think that is why when you have a Ozzie Smith type defensive player...they get voted in the HoF on first ballot with a rather impressive 91.7 instead of waiting even a few years ala Gary Carter (not saying Carter was that type of defensive player, but Carter was a more valuable offensive player and had to wait 6 years and even then only with a 78.0 pct vote to get inducted).
It seems usually players like Ozzie would have be voted in later than 1st year and sometimes not till the Veterans Committee ala Bill Mazeroski.

On a sidenote anyone check out Ozzie's career OPS? it's eerie. Of course it's a bit more eerie that Mazeroski's was one point higher.

Ozzie had 96 wRC+ for his career
Maz had 89. Amazing the difference when you add in sb & cs. Still doesn't take into account the rest of his baserunning.

Tony Fernandez 105
Miguel Tejada 113
Cal Ripken, Jr 115

I cannot believe this Mike Cameron vs Jason Bay crap is still reverberating around the blogosphere. Here are their 2007, 2008, and 2009 WAR, followed by their three year totals, courtesy CHONE's baseball projection website thingy:

Bay: -1.0, 1.9, 5.2, 6.1
Cameron: 2.1, 3.3, 3.6, 9.0

If you want a low risk, low reward, steady, consistent, even dare I say, conservative option, choose Cammy. If you'd rather opt for the guy who could perform like a superstar, or like a superdud and appears to be the more mercurial of the two, take Bay. You might hit a HR with him and you might strike out, much like him. Never have I seen two very good, but obviously second tier players generate so much freakin controversy. It's bizarre.

The only reason people view them differently is because Bay had two gaudy HR/RBI years in Boston on the big stage. Cameron doesn't get those kind of numbers and he doesn't play in a big market.

They're both in the second tier of outfielders, but Bay has a 1st tier reputation.

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

I cannot believe this Mike Cameron vs Jason Bay crap is still reverberating around the blogosphere. Here are their 2007, 2008, and 2009 WAR, followed by their three year totals, courtesy CHONE's baseball projection website thingy:

Bay: -1.0, 1.9, 5.2, 6.1
Cameron: 2.1, 3.3, 3.6, 9.0

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Chone's WAR isn't the "cause" of this. It's FanGraph's WAR. The difference is pretty much entirely in the defensive metric. TotalZone has a fine view of Bay's 2009 (and has him as very poor in 2007 and 2008), while UZR has Bay as very poor every year. Here are their respective WAR's from FanGraphs:

Bay: 0, 2.9, 3.5 (6.4)
Cameron: 2.2, 4.1, 4.3 (10.6)

People have a hard time accepting that Cameron could have very well been more valuable than Bay in 2009. If you think Bay is an average or better fielder (as TotalZone has him as in 2009), Bay is clearly better. If you think Bay is a poor defensive left fielder (as UZR has him as), than Cameron is ahead. It's apparently hard for people to accept that their could be a 2 win difference in defensive value when it's actually relatively commonplace. The best defenders generally are about 2-3 wins better than the worst defenders, and UZR (and TotalZone in 2007 and 2008) generally views Cameron as an elite defender and Bay as a very poor defender. That Cameron is very good in center and Bay is very bad in left isn't hard for people to grasp. What's hard for them to come to terms with is that this difference could be to the order of 2 wins or so.

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I don't get this at all. If it's possible for a career, how is it so crazy for a single season?

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I never said its crazy that a defensive player could be rated higher than another in a single season, I said merely that its crazy for a system to rate Camerons 09 performance as equivalent to Bays 09 performance, let alone 20-25% better as some of the values have been posted.

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Really? So, would you support Tejada for the Hall of Fame?

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I honestly don't know. Its an entirely different subject that i haven't researched at all. I can see how you can say, "well Ozzie is a HOF so if you say Tejadas career was better than you have to say Tejada is a HOF". Well, to that I say Tejada's career isn't over, and Ozzies career was much longer than Tejada's. But....i'll say judging just upon what I've known of Tejadas career i'd say he has potential to be HOF but needs a few more solid years. I will also say that I don't value defense as high as you obviously, though I do value it especially at these premium positions. I'm not certain IMO Oz should be a HOF'er. I am confident others such as Puckett IMO shouldn't be. But again, i'm not lookin to derail this into a HOF discussion.

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But I guess there are some people that will always underrate the importance of defense.

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And maybe, just maybe there are those that will overrate it?

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It's not a suggestion that that's how much that player should get in their next contract. One year's dollar value isn't an absolute indicator of that player's overall value, in the same way that one year of performance doesn't equal overall performance.

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agreed. i hope you're not suggesting I am misusing it though. I fully understand it doesn't evaluate how much future contracts should be. My issue is with some (and I say some because apparently HGM just provided one that says Bay was better???) that claim Cameron was more valuable a player last year than Bay was...significantly better in fact. IMHO there is no way that is accurate and;

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If you're complaining that Cameron is too close to Jason Bay in one season (I don't know what there really is to complain about, given the obvious defensive differences between the two), then you should be taking issue with the WAR calculation, not the assigned dollar value.

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that is my issue! I don't know the calculation, but based upon its claim that Cameron was 20-25% better than Bay last year, I strongly feel the calculation overvalues defense.

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Ozzie had 96 wRC+ for his career
Maz had 89. Amazing the difference when you add in sb & cs. Still doesn't take into account the rest of his baserunning.

Tony Fernandez 105
Miguel Tejada 113
Cal Ripken, Jr 115

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So what does this mean? Does this mean that this system claims Ripken, Tejada and Fernandez were all better than Oz over their career?

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The only reason people view them differently is because Bay had two gaudy HR/RBI years in Boston on the big stage. Cameron doesn't get those kind of numbers and he doesn't play in a big market.

They're both in the second tier of outfielders, but Bay has a 1st tier reputation.

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And maybe some view Cammy and Bay differently because they listen to stat algorithms that place too heavy an emphasis on defense?

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That Cameron is very good in center and Bay is very bad in left isn't hard for people to grasp. What's hard for them to come to terms with is that this difference could be to the order of 2 wins or so.

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Sounds logical.

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Originally Posted by dickay

So what does this mean? Does this mean that this system claims Ripken, Tejada and Fernandez were all better than Oz over their career?

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-wrc/

Also, for anyone who thinks defense is overvalued :

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/1...endly-reminder

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would like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that, for all intents and purposes, a run saved is equal to a run scored. There are small differences, but they're essentially negligible. It's really quite simple to understand. Using the standard Pythagorean W/L equation:

A team that scores 700 runs and allows 700 runs will be expected to win 50% of its games
A team that scores 710 runs and allows 700 runs will be expected to win 50.6% of its games
A team that scores 700 runs and allows 690 runs will be expected to win 50.7% of its games

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Unless you don't believe in pythag either, in which case your arguments are going to be based off every 'basic' stat.

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Originally Posted by 200tang

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-wrc/

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Or for the Coles notes version, it means that according to this metric Ripken, Tejada, and Fernandez were better hitters than Ozzie. Once defense is factored in, only Ripken was more valuable than Ozzie over the course of his career. Hope that helps. ;)

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Originally Posted by 200tang

also, for anyone who thinks defense is overvalued :

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/1...endly-reminder



unless you don't believe in pythag either, in which case your arguments are going to be based off every 'basic' stat.

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ribbies! :D

I suppose if you don't think defense is important, well, then, you'll value players differently. Nothing wrong with that, every team's organization has their own unique way of doing exactly that.

However, it's pretty obvious that Cams is a better fielder than Bay, and if you're ignoring defense entirely, then your way of valuing players is probably not very good.

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

Once defense is factored in, only Ripken was more valuable than anyone who ever picked up a baseball over the course of his career. Hope that helps. ;)

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I agree. ;)

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Originally Posted by dickay

I'm not certain IMO Oz should be a HOF'er.

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Well then.... that's the first I've ever heard anybody not named metsguy claim anything other than Ozzie is an easy HOF'er.

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Originally Posted by dickay

And maybe, just maybe there are those that will overrate it?

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Maybe.

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Originally Posted by dickay

agreed. i hope you're not suggesting I am misusing it though. I fully understand it doesn't evaluate how much future contracts should be. My issue is with some (and I say some because apparently HGM just provided one that says Bay was better???) that claim Cameron was more valuable a player last year than Bay was...significantly better in fact. IMHO there is no way that is accurate and;

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Your issue is purely with FanGraphs WAR. It has Cameron as being about .8 of a win better in 2009. That isn't significantly better. It's 8 runs better overall. CHONE's WAR has Jason Bay being better. BP's WARP has them equal.

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Originally Posted by dickay

So what does this mean? Does this mean that this system claims Ripken, Tejada and Fernandez were all better than Oz over their career?

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Offensively.

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Originally Posted by dickay

And maybe some view Cammy and Bay differently because they listen to stat algorithms that place too heavy an emphasis on defense?

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I don't think it's implausible that Cameron is a plus defensive center fielder and Bay is a poor defensive left fielder. I also don't think it's implausible that a plus defensive center fielder can be worth 2 wins better purely on the defensive side of things than a poor defensive left fielder.

Let's breakdown FanGraph's WAR of the two players and I'll link to the win values explained articles as I go along.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ained-part-one
Offensively, they have Bay worth 33.7 runs and Cameron worth 9.8 runs, a 23.9 run difference which is a little more than 2 wins. Jason Bay two wins better with the bat than Cameron? Plausible to me.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ained-part-two
Next, they have Bay worth -13 runs on defense and Cameron worth +10 runs, a 23 run difference. The article is a bit out of date, as UZR now DOES include arm and double plays.

Neither of those numbers seems implausible to me. Bay is poor defensively, and Cameron is very good. It has Bay as the second worst full time defensive left fielder, with only Braun being worse (Delmon Young, Adam Dunn and Carlos Quentin also come out worse, though not in full time play). This doesn't strike me as a stretch. Cameron, on the other hand, is ranked 5th among center fielders behind Franklin Gutierrez, BJ Upton, Nyjer Morgan and Rajai Davis. Again, this doesn't seem like a stretch to me. Cameron's been well-regarded defensively for a while.

So, we stand with Bay at 20.7 runs and Cameron at 19.8.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ined-part-four
Next is a replacement level adjustment, with Bay benefiting slightly more at 21.3 compared to Cameron's 20.9, due to his slightly more playing time. That brings Bay to a total of +42 runs and Cameron to +40.7 runs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ues-part-three
The last adjustment is a positional adjustment, which is an adjustment based on the value of a player at their given position. Cameron gains 2.3 runs because center field is a more valuable position, bringing him up to 43 runs in all. Bay loses 7.1 runs because left field is NOT a valuable position, bringing Bay down to 34.9 runs.

That's it. An 8 run difference, which is basically entirely due to the difference in value between a left fielder and a center fielder. That's not a lot...and, I don't see anything in that process that seems crazy or implausible.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Here, I'll show you the stats that say that Ripken was a baseball God and slew those who dare opposed him.

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Originally Posted by dickay

Ah, yes I see. Very good then. I agree Ripken was the greatest baseball player who ever lived.

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It's so nice when you two can agree on something.

I consider Ozzie Smith to be one of the Hall's poorer picks. Absolutely putrid hitter, who made flashy plays sometimes and did backflips so everyone loves him. He's like Derek Jeter without the bat.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

I consider Ozzie Smith to be one of the Hall's poorer picks. Absolutely putrid hitter, who made flashy plays sometimes and did backflips so everyone loves him. He's like Cal Ripken without the awesome.

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While I disagree about Smith, I can't find fault in your comparisons.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

I consider Ozzie Smith to be one of the Hall's poorer picks. Absolutely putrid hitter, who made flashy plays sometimes and did backflips so everyone loves him. He's like Derek Jeter without the bat.

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And with a great glove, and he wasn't a putrid hitter.

Ozzie Smith is like Derek Jeter in the same way that Prince Fielder is like Sean Casey.

Aka not hardly.

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Originally Posted by free2131

While I disagree about Smith, I can't find anything to argue the fact that Ripken is the best player ever.

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I have to agree with ya free, great post.