Selective Application of Statistics

An article that reminded me of this

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Originally Posted by dickay

This is typical of many of the newage statheads though. While I personally respect the sabremetrics and feel they have a very important role in todays game, I know they aren't the end all. Whenever someone points out an obvious flaw, like for example any system that says Cameron was worth 19 mil and 25% more valuable than Jay Bay (who some actually talked about for a short time in the MVP category), the statheads combat by calling those people stupid and ignorant.

I would bet that you'd be surprised at just how many people disagreed with you on Camerons value. I'd actually bet that many who calculate these stats would admit that Cameron being 25% more valuable than Bay is kind of absurd and that something is wrong. Obviously, Theo did...as he gave him 7 mil less per year than he offered Bay.

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http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/12/...-of-statistics

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The point here seems to be that advanced metrics are used as a weapon to trumpet players like Cameron who, atleast in the eyes of the MMO writer, isn't as good as Fangraphs suggests. This couldn't be further from the truth. Advanced stats are cited only because the methodologies behind their calculation have been investigated, questioned and eventually accepted by the best minds in the sabermetric community. If I invented a stat and continued citing it despite being discredited by Tom Tango or Colin Wyers, my credibility would be shot.

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In the case of Cameron and Jason Bay, reliable statistics show that the gap between them isn't as large as many think. That this doesn't jibe with most fans' perceptions of the two players has little bearing on whether it is true.

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Lies, damned lies, and statistics
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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions.
The term is part of a phrase attributed to the 19th Century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, among others, and later popularized in the United States by, among others, Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The phrase is not found in Disraeli's works nor is it known within his lifetime and for years afterward. Many coiners have been proposed. The most plausible, on current evidence, is Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843-1911).

I tend to have a poor view of any metric that tries to derive monetary value from a player's values on the field. I think that doing so reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of economics.

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In the case of Cameron and Jason Bay, reliable statistics show that the gap between them isn't as large as many think. That this doesn't jibe with most fans' perceptions of the two players has little bearing on whether it is true.

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I appreciate the article and find it refreshing that others have the same issue I have with a system that says Cameron was 20-25% more valuable than Bay was last year.

While certainly not a valid stat in comparison, Bay was amongst the AL MVP candidates, finishing in the top 10. I couldn't find Cameron in the top 40 in the NL.

Cameron does provide alot of defense at a position where thats a priority, but I think there is too much credence given to that in the statistical analysis. There is no way in my mind Cameron could be as valuable, let alone 20-25% more valuable last year. I think its more of a statistical anomaly that highlights a flaw. The "reliable statistics" are subject to opinion as to how valuable defense is. Of course statiticians must defend this despite the obvious.

Are you saying you are agreeing with the baseball economist JC Bradbury when he claims Francouer is worth $12m/yr?

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Originally Posted by dickay

While certainly not a valid stat in comparison, Bay was amongst the AL MVP candidates, finishing in the top 10. I couldn't find Cameron in the top 40 in the NL.

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In the case of Cameron and Jason Bay, reliable statistics show that the gap between them isn't as large as many think. That this doesn't jibe with most fans' perceptions of the two players has little bearing on whether it is true.

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The writer's still largely evaluate based on AVG-HR-RBI. They certainly don't take defense into account on anything more than a very cursory level. That Jason Bay fairs well in a writer's vote isn't evidence of anything other than the writers poor methods of player evaluation.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

The writer's still largely evaluate based on AVG-HR-RBI. They certainly don't take defense into account on anything more than a very cursory level. That Jason Bay fairs better in a writer's vote isn't evidence of anything other than the writers poor methods of player evaluation.

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Originally Posted by dickay View Post
While certainly not a valid stat in comparison, Bay was amongst the AL MVP candidates, finishing in the top 10. I couldn't find Cameron in the top 40 in the NL.

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agreed

Curious, who had the more valuable career...Tony Fernandez or Ozzie Smith?

Ozzie.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Curious, who had the more valuable career...Tony Fernandez or Ozzie Smith?

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Tony Fernandez if you go by hitting.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

Tony Fernandez if you go by hitting.

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I didn't say hitting. I said "more valuable."

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I didn't say hitting. I said "more valuable."

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Well if you include defense (ugh) then it's probably Smith.

I'm interested to see where this is going. I didn't check any stats but Ozzie Smith is one of the all time greats...

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

Well if you include defense (ugh) then it's probably Smith.

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Sorry that you're not a fan of including all aspects of players when evaluating them.

Or, to make the comparison a bit more apt, Ozzie Smith or Miguel Tejada?