Zomg!!! Halladay is gone and so is cliff lee

Roy Halladay and the Phillies appear to have agreed to a contract extension. It's 3-years/$60 mil with 2 vesting options. That's not a bad deal for Philadelphia.

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/6698062678
http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/6697970281

I'd like to see another piece coming to the Jays, but with us getting Wallace for Taylor, I like this.

I definately like Wallace better than Taylor, especially if he's going to play 3rd base, since we have Cooper on the way at first, but I guess he's best suited for first base. Anyways, Taylor wasn't really a fit either, we don't need a 3rd young left fielder.

I think both Overbay and Encarnacion will be gone come opening day, hopefully we can get some good pieces for the future, but I'm not holding my breath for a good return.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Results-based analysis doesn't really work in baseball, because of the completely random nature of the game. By focusing on the results, you aren't really determining who made the smarter deal as much as which side got luckier to see their returns pan out.

The idea of analyzing deals like this is that you're comparing the participating GMs on the basis of what they know at the present time and how they react, compared to what they should know and how they should react. The future results are not available for decision-making purposes. And because baseball has so much entropy, results can say absolutely nothing useful about which sides made the smarter deals. There have been many bad idea trades that have worked out, many good idea trades that have failed.

That's not to say that you can't learn ANYTHING useful from results; often you can tell which teams do a better job of scouting, coaching, and evaluating players (count how many deals which have gone poorly for Andy Friedman's Rays. Maybe 2 total), and which teams don't (Houston). But that's not always the case, and at the present time, there is more than enough data available to effectively evaluate the deal at the present time.

Besides, if you had to wait for the results of all the minor leaguers' careers, you'd have fangraphs writing 4 year old articles all the time.....

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This is true, and a more appropriate way to review things.

Well said.

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Originally Posted by gosensgo101

I'd like to see another piece coming to the Jays, but with us getting Wallace for Taylor, I like this.

I definately like Wallace better than Taylor, especially if he's going to play 3rd base, since we have Cooper on the way at first, but I guess he's best suited for first base. Anyways, Taylor wasn't really a fit either, we don't need a 3rd young left fielder.

I think both Overbay and Encarnacion will be gone come opening day, hopefully we can get some good pieces for the future, but I'm not holding my breath for a good return.

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where did you here this

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Results-based analysis doesn't really work in baseball, because of the completely random nature of the game. By focusing on the results, you aren't really determining who made the smarter deal as much as which side got luckier to see their returns pan out.

The idea of analyzing deals like this is that you're comparing the participating GMs on the basis of what they know at the present time and how they react, compared to what they should know and how they should react. The future results are not available for decision-making purposes. And because baseball has so much entropy, results can say absolutely nothing useful about which sides made the smarter deals. There have been many bad idea trades that have worked out, many good idea trades that have failed.

That's not to say that you can't learn ANYTHING useful from results; often you can tell which teams do a better job of scouting, coaching, and evaluating players (count how many deals which have gone poorly for Andy Friedman's Rays. Maybe 2 total), and which teams don't (Houston). But that's not always the case, and at the present time, there is more than enough data available to effectively evaluate the deal at the present time.

Besides, if you had to wait for the results of all the minor leaguers' careers, you'd have fangraphs writing 4 year old articles all the time.....

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Ladies and gentleman, boys and girls today's word of the day...is entropy. Nice one, haveacigar. :D

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

Ladies and gentleman, boys and girls today's word of the day...is entropy. Nice one, haveacigar. :D

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Yeah I'm on a roll today, really bringing it strong. In one day of posts I managed to effectively A: use entropy in an argument, B: make a Yakov Smirnoff joke, and C: post pictures of tauntauns to humorous effect.

If only I had a class on sportsmogul, I would ace that final.

Also involved in the deal is Oakland getting Micheal Taylor from Toronto in exchange for Brett Wallace, who we acquired in the Holliday trade last season.

Looking at their numbers it might be a good trade for us. Looks like Taylor has a better eye and defense.

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Originally Posted by ragecage

Also involved in the deal is Oakland getting Micheal Taylor from Toronto in exchange for Brett Wallace, who we acquired in the Holliday trade last season.

Looking at their numbers it might be a good trade for us. Looks like Taylor has a better eye and defense.

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The reason it's a good trade for you is the logjam at 1B/DH in your organization. I think I heard you've got 4 players for those 2 positions. Wallace, Barton and two other dudes whose names escape me at the moment. You get a high upside OF and we get a 1B/3B who can flat out rake, instead of a third guy at LF/DH: Lind, Snider, Taylor. The Jays really need help on the corners, as well as just about every other position, but bats were kind of neglected in the JPR era. Good trade for all four teams.

reliable source.

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22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2009 01:09:58
Good question guys,

That's why I always thought Seattle would be sending talent to Toronto to HELP Philly get Halladay. That makes sense for Philly, and makes the deal more ideal for TBJ as well.


I have heard rumblings that Seattle might get 2-3 players -- maybe even two pitchers -- in this trade. Didn't hear any names, though.

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One person also mentioned Lyle Overbay in the comments, but who knows at this point. THE SUSPENSE!

You know what, the more I think about it, the less the supposed deal makes sense.

I also don't believe that the reason the deal was delayed was because of Halladay's physical & contract. I honestly think negotiations are either still going on or have been going on for awhile.

I find it hard to believe Gillies/Aumont/Ramirez can really bring back 1 year of Cliff Lee and 2 draft picks. I also seriously can't believe the Phillies bring us in to the deal and we don't send anything to Toronto.

I think I'm starting to agree with Churchill's rumor. Gillies/Aumont/Ramirez/One of the guys I'd rather not trade (although I hope it's Halman :p) for Cliff Lee + 1/2 others, likely from Toronto.

Lot's of srslyness and beeleevin goin' on.

http://twitter.com/elliottbaseball/status/6737235653

Minor leaguer flunked the physical?

Drabek had Tommy John surgery in July of '07, while Aumont had elbow issues toward the end of the '08 season.

http://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/6737711365

Apparently Aumont isn't the one who failed his physical.

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From AP: Phillies GM Amaro says he's hopeful Halladay trade can be completed Wednesday but talks may extend into Thursday

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lame, unless they still let the Lee part of the deal go through, in which case, I personally don't care :p

Unlikely they let the Lee part go through without Halladay though :(

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Originally Posted by 200tang

lame, unless they still let the Lee part of the deal go through, in which case, I personally don't care :p

Unlikely they let the Lee part go through without Halladay though :(

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I still like your chances in the division though, you really need this to put you over the top.

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Originally Posted by ragecage

I still like your chances in the division though, you really need this to put you over the top.

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I'm saying I don't care about the PHI/TOR part of the deal :p I agree we definitely need 1/2 more SP that can take over in case Felix goes down. I'm just glad that Aumont passed his physical.

So yeah...Either Ramirez or Drabek failed...please be Drabek.

Actually, what am I saying, Ramirez didn't take a physical. At least I don't think. Since Aumont/Lee/Halladay all passed that leaves only Drabek since none of the position players took a physical.

http://twitter.com/shannondrayer

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Deal is official. Lee is a Mariner

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Apparently they're dealing Lee and just assuming the deal gets done.

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Originally Posted by 200tang

So yeah...Either Ramirez or Drabek failed...please be Drabek.

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If Drabek failed doesn't the whole deal fall apart? I mean Philly ain't trading Lee if they don't get Doc, unless of course they want their fans to burn Citizens Bank Park to the ground. :p

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

If Drabek failed doesn't the whole deal fall apart? I mean Philly ain't trading Lee if they don't get Doc, unless of course they want their fans to burn Citizens Bank Park to the ground. :p

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You probably posted at the exact time the Lee deal became official.

If Drabek fails that could mean a number of things though. It could mean the doctors just think he'll have problems in the future in which case Toronto could still take him but want one more piece in return or keep the money or something. Amaro said the deal would get done though. My guess is either the rumored deal goes through or PHI adds another prospect.

[Edit : 5 PM Conference for Halladay. Either the failed physical was false or they worked something out]

http://twitter.com/ToddZolecki/status/6739714887

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Originally Posted by 200tang

You probably posted at the exact time the Lee deal became official.

If Drabek fails that could mean a number of things though. It could mean the doctors just think he'll have problems in the future in which case Toronto could still take him but want one more piece in return or keep the money or something. Amaro said the deal would get done though. My guess is either the rumored deal goes through or PHI adds another prospect.

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The money stays in Philly as far as I'm concerned. $6 mil is far more valuable to them in their position than it is to us in ours. Another prospect would be sweet though. I mean, it's not like Amaro has any leverage to deny another prospect. Does he? :confused:

What an insane deal if you're a Philly fan. The euphoria of the possibility of a Halladay/Lee/Hamels front three, quickly to anger at Lee being sent to Seattle, followed by downright terror that the Halladay deal might not go through. What an off-season so far, and it's not even Christmas yet. :)

Hopefully some crazy Adrian Gonzalez deal happens.

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Churchill: Hearing there could be some additional details to the trade involving the Mariners that we haven't heard up to this point.

We'll find out, presumably today. If I get it before it gets out, I'll post it immediately.

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When is this speculation gonna end? :|

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Originally Posted by 200tang

When is this speculation gonna end? :|

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This is MADNESS. Madness, I say. Maybe Mariners sending a prospect to Jays to make up for Phillies blunder? I would think the Philbos are on their own on that one though. Thank God Gord "Give us your walking wounded" Ash isn't in charge here anymore. Ugh.

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Originally Posted by 200tang

Hopefully some crazy Adrian Gonzalez deal happens.

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If they trade Adrian, the MLB should just combine the Padres and Pirates and have them barnstorm through the Majors.

Adrain Gonzales to the Dodgers for McCourt's engagement ring

which Kevin Kouzmanoff then uses to propose to Lady Gaga

But shot down, he is then traded to the Cubs for Milton Bradley and $60mil

Sounds like the report of a failed physical among one of the three prospects coming to the Jays was BS. Another piece of "journalism" trash from one of the worst writers in this market Bob Elliott. Source: Jeff Blair - Very credible and reliable. Hope to God Elliott gets a severance package. The sooner the better, gotta flush out the goddamn dinosaurs dammit. :mad:

Link

It is over. Well, except for Bud the Slug signing off on the $6-million. ;)

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

What an insane deal if you're a Philly fan. The euphoria of the possibility of a Halladay/Lee/Hamels front three, quickly to anger at Lee being sent to Seattle, followed by downright terror that the Halladay deal might not go through. What an off-season so far, and it's not even Christmas yet. :)

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At least both the Lee and Halladay trades happened at once. What would've really sucked for Phillies fans is if they had traded for Halladay, then later in the offseason, sent Lee to Seattle. :p

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Originally Posted by actionjackson

Sounds like the report of a failed physical among one of the three prospects coming to the Jays was BS. Another piece of "journalism" trash from one of the worst writers in this market Bob Elliott. Source: Jeff Blair - Very credible and reliable. Hope to God Elliott gets a severance package. The sooner the better, gotta flush out the goddamn dinosaurs dammit. :mad:

Link

It is over. Well, except for Bud the Slug signing off on the $6-million. ;)

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Well....from Rotoworld:

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Blue Jays acquired 1B-3B Brett Wallace from the Athletics for OF Michael Taylor.
It turns out that an MRI on Wallace's shoulder was the hold-up on the deal, but everything eventually checked out. It's curious that the Athletics would give up on him, but it's probably an acknowledgment that he's bound to play first base or be a designated hitter in the long-term. Wallace, 23, was actually originally drafted by Toronto in 2005, but went to college and signed with the Cardinals after being drafted in the first-round in 2008. Wallace has a .305/.384/.475 line over his first two professional seasons, reaching as high as Triple-A last season. Using Wallace at first base could be one possibility should the Jays trade Lyle Overbay this winter.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

At least both the Lee and Halladay trades happened at once. What would've really sucked for Phillies fans is if they had traded for Halladay, then later in the offseason, sent Lee to Seattle. :p


Well....from Rotoworld:

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I'll believe it when I see it from someone other than Elliott, who's the one who released the news that Wallace's shoulder had been a hold-up to the deal. In my opinion that's straight up spin to cover his ass. I'll take Blair's word over Elliott's any day of the week and twice on Sundays. ;)

haven't been reading this thread, but why did the Phillies trade Lee? It doesn't seem like they needed to in order to get this done.

Why not keep Lee for the year and then get the picks for him?

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

haven't been reading this thread, but why did the Phillies trade Lee? It doesn't seem like they needed to in order to get this done.

Why not keep Lee for the year and then get the picks for him?

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They don't seem to be able to afford both his and Roy's salary.

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Originally Posted by gosensgo101

They don't seem to be able to afford both his and Roy's salary.

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for this year alone, couldn't they? They will be giving Roy a large enough raise in 2011 that would cover Lee's contract this year.

I imagine they can cover both contracts for 2010. Maybe not.

The real question is why didn't they trade Blanton? I find it hard to believe that NO team out there wouldn't spend one C prospect for him or just take him..basically for free..

What do you think it cost Toronto by not doing the deal last year? It seems they got less if any of last years rumors were true.

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Originally Posted by acetoolguy

What do you think it cost Toronto by not doing the deal last year? It seems they got less if any of last years rumors were true.

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Maybe a prospect? Not much considering they extended Halladay.

I don't think they lost out much. It's a pretty decent haul and I think all 4 teams did well in this trade. You can't say that about every trade. Remember that Ricciardi was in charge then. He would've found a way to pooch it and wouldn't have had to clean up the mess.