The Mets come in as a 4th team and omar signs the entire mexican league and he trades it for King felixQuote:
Originally Posted by gosensgo101
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The Mets come in as a 4th team and omar signs the entire mexican league and he trades it for King felixQuote:
Originally Posted by gosensgo101
I think MLB Trade Rumors is interpreting this wrong. Here's the original tweet:He means that no Seattle specs go to Toronto, so the Jays only get players from the Phillies.Quote:
Sources say only Phillies would receive Seattle prospects for Lee. None would be shipped to Toronto. Kyle Drabek is involved.
Not sure why I read that wrong :|
/sigh, I enjoy speculating on the deal, but I wish it would be confirmed :C
That makes sense. Mlbtraderumors must be tired from covering this :PQuote:
Originally Posted by gosensgo101
You read MLBTR right, but they interpreted the Tweet wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
any other day of the year lackay would be the main news.Quote:
Originally Posted by gosensgo101
He deserves it for not signing back to the Angels! -evil laugh-Quote:
Originally Posted by ewing6
Except the days leading up to the trade deadline, when Halladay speculation was at its peak (during the season atleast).Quote:
Originally Posted by ewing6
You are lucky. You are a la guy. You get the angels and lakers.Quote:
Originally Posted by President
I get the knicks and mets
lackay wouldn't sign midseason:cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by gosensgo101
It's Lackey, btw :p
:mad:Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
I remembered watching Lackey when he was younger and thinking to myself, "man this guy sucks. I really hate this guy"
I wonder if the stats justify my perception!
lastest mlbtraderumor
9:46pm: One Mariner prospect headed to Philly would be 21-year-old outfielder Tyson Gilles, writes Stark in his latest update..
Don't feel bad Angel fans, for Derek Lowe is ripe for the taking... take him.
TAKE HIM!!
Need to close that "7" :p
juan rivera for lowe and cash?Quote:
Originally Posted by free2131
He doesn't suck, but he's not really amazing and has been declining the past 4 or so years.Quote:
Originally Posted by President
Sounds good to me. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by ewing6
redsox chose him over bay and mets are vice versaQuote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
All I can say is that my picks are shot to hell in Jeffy's thread.
10:12pm: Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (via Twitter) has Toronto getting Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud; Philly getting Roy Halladay and Philippe Aumont; and the Mariners getting Cliff Lee, plus another piece (or, pieces).
I really need to update that.Quote:
Originally Posted by free2131
What the ****Quote:
Originally Posted by ewing6
It seems like it's going to be Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud from Philly to Toronto, Halladay to Philly.
In a separate deal, Philly sends Lee to Seattle for Aumont and Gillies.
Lee for Aumont and Gillies? A bit too crazy for me to believe at the moment. There HAS to be another player involved or this is a fleece. One year of Lee and 2 draft picks for 2 decent prospects? Yeah..right..
Considering the source this seems somewhat close to what we might expect. Depending on the third player I think this was a nice deal for everyone. There are negatives and pros to each side of the deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Rosenthal via twitter
USSM's take on the deal from our perspective.
http://ussmariner.com/2009/12/14/the...as-we-know-it/
Quote:
Lee projects as roughly a +5 win pitcher for 2010. Given the expected cost of wins on the market, that makes him worth about $20 to $25 million for the upcoming season. However, the dollar per win values for high end players are usually based on multi-year contracts, as players of this caliber trade a little bit of cash for long term security. Since the Mariners are assuming no long term risk, his value is probably more like $25 to $30 million.
If the M’s can’t sign Lee to an extension, it’s almost a mortal lock that he’ll be a Type A free agent, which means that the team will get two draft picks if he leaves via free agency. The combined value of the two compensation picks is another $5 to $10 million, depending on what specific picks the M’s would receive.
So, the asset that is Lee for 2010 plus potential draft picks is worth somewhere between $30 and $40 million. His 2010 salary? $8 million. He’s a $22 to $32 million net asset. That’s enormous – he’s one of the most valuable properties in baseball.
The three prospects the M’s gave up? None of them are top notch, elite guys. They all have potential, but their risk-reward profiles do not put them in the top tier of minor leaguers. Based on the work of Victor Wang, we can quantify the present value of Aumont and Ramirez at about $5 million each and Gillies at about $3 million. That’s $13 million in total, or about half of what Lee is worth.
This is, quite frankly, a heist. The Mariners are getting a Cy Young caliber pitcher for some decent-but-not-great prospects. They aren’t giving up Morrow. They aren’t giving up Saunders. They aren’t even giving up Triunfel. And yet, they walk away with one of the five or six best pitchers in baseball.
Forget that we probably only have Lee for a year. We’re paying for about two months worth of his services and getting four months for free.
Seriously, dance in the streets. Build a bust of Zduriencik and place it on your mantle. Name your first born son Jack and your daughter Jackie. When this becomes official, hug someone. This trade is that good.
This is all assuming that Lee pitches a healthy year and pitches like he has the last two years of course.Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
Of course, but you always evaluate trades with what you know and most likely outcomes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
I know, just the article made it sound like this deal was already a steal, you don't know that usually until a few years from now. The three guys you gave up could all be beastly players one day and Lee could be horrendous. But god damn it looks good at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
That's all I was saying, you can't really effectively evaluate until a few years have gone by, more or less saying that to the guy writing the article, not you.
How I think it's going to play out:
1) Halladay to Phils. Halladay signs a 3-year extension under $60M.
2) Lee to Seattle. Lee will want 6 years at $22M+.
3) d'Arnaud, Taylor and Aumont to Jays.
4) Gillies and Aumont to Phils.
I don't think the Phils did well here. I bet it went public that Lee wasn't going to re-sign and that hurt the Phils' bargaining power. Dumb, since keeping Lee and Halladay for one year would give them a much chance to 3-peat.
If I were the Phils, I'd make the Halladay trade and then keep Lee for one more year and take the compensation picks. One year of a superstud pitcher at below market price is worth A LOT -- especially when you already have a team good enough to make it to the playoffs.
I agree with Clay.
Unless it was for $ reasons, I can't see why they would have got rid of Lee.
Halliday+Lee+Hammels+That Offense = About as close to a playoff lock as you can get
And significantly increases your chances to prevent the Yankees from winning #27!Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
F the YankeesQuote:
Originally Posted by Clay Dreslough
philly get juan ramerez too. I am kinda confused why they just didn't trade the guys for halladay last year...
Results-based analysis doesn't really work in baseball, because of the completely random nature of the game. By focusing on the results, you aren't really determining who made the smarter deal as much as which side got luckier to see their returns pan out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
The idea of analyzing deals like this is that you're comparing the participating GMs on the basis of what they know at the present time and how they react, compared to what they should know and how they should react. The future results are not available for decision-making purposes. And because baseball has so much entropy, results can say absolutely nothing useful about which sides made the smarter deals. There have been many bad idea trades that have worked out, many good idea trades that have failed.
That's not to say that you can't learn ANYTHING useful from results; often you can tell which teams do a better job of scouting, coaching, and evaluating players (count how many deals which have gone poorly for Andy Friedman's Rays. Maybe 2 total), and which teams don't (Houston). But that's not always the case, and at the present time, there is more than enough data available to effectively evaluate the deal at the present time.
Besides, if you had to wait for the results of all the minor leaguers' careers, you'd have fangraphs writing 4 year old articles all the time.....
Yah, I definitely agree. I think Halladay is an upgrade over almost every SP in the league, but Philadelphia's downfall last season wasn't that they lacked a stud pitcher, it's that they lacked pitching depth (even compared to the Yankees who went to a three-SP rotation because of their own starting depth problems). Between Halladay and Lee you can guarantee yourself a stud pitching in 5 games over a 7 game series. In a Yankees/Phillies series, Halladay wouldn't have a problem holding his own against Sabathia and then the Phillies could overwhelm the Yankees in a Lee vs Burnett matchup.Quote:
Originally Posted by Clay Dreslough
If we got more than Lee....Quote:
The Phillies get Roy Halladay, who will take a physical today, according to Ed Price, and $6MM from the Jays. They also get Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and Juan Ramirez from the M's. (Ryan Divish of the Tacoma News Tribune confirmed that Ramirez is headed to Philly.)
Halladay will also agree to a three-year extension that will pay him about $20MM annually through 2013, according to Stark. The extension won't affect his 2010 salary ($15.75MM) and will include a vesting option.
The Mariners get Cliff Lee from the Phils and they could be getting more.
THey already did win 27 WS...Quote:
Originally Posted by Clay Dreslough