Need to close that "7" :p
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Need to close that "7" :p
juan rivera for lowe and cash?Quote:
Originally Posted by free2131
He doesn't suck, but he's not really amazing and has been declining the past 4 or so years.Quote:
Originally Posted by President
Sounds good to me. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by ewing6
redsox chose him over bay and mets are vice versaQuote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
All I can say is that my picks are shot to hell in Jeffy's thread.
10:12pm: Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (via Twitter) has Toronto getting Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud; Philly getting Roy Halladay and Philippe Aumont; and the Mariners getting Cliff Lee, plus another piece (or, pieces).
I really need to update that.Quote:
Originally Posted by free2131
What the ****Quote:
Originally Posted by ewing6
It seems like it's going to be Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud from Philly to Toronto, Halladay to Philly.
In a separate deal, Philly sends Lee to Seattle for Aumont and Gillies.
Lee for Aumont and Gillies? A bit too crazy for me to believe at the moment. There HAS to be another player involved or this is a fleece. One year of Lee and 2 draft picks for 2 decent prospects? Yeah..right..
Considering the source this seems somewhat close to what we might expect. Depending on the third player I think this was a nice deal for everyone. There are negatives and pros to each side of the deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Rosenthal via twitter
USSM's take on the deal from our perspective.
http://ussmariner.com/2009/12/14/the...as-we-know-it/
Quote:
Lee projects as roughly a +5 win pitcher for 2010. Given the expected cost of wins on the market, that makes him worth about $20 to $25 million for the upcoming season. However, the dollar per win values for high end players are usually based on multi-year contracts, as players of this caliber trade a little bit of cash for long term security. Since the Mariners are assuming no long term risk, his value is probably more like $25 to $30 million.
If the M’s can’t sign Lee to an extension, it’s almost a mortal lock that he’ll be a Type A free agent, which means that the team will get two draft picks if he leaves via free agency. The combined value of the two compensation picks is another $5 to $10 million, depending on what specific picks the M’s would receive.
So, the asset that is Lee for 2010 plus potential draft picks is worth somewhere between $30 and $40 million. His 2010 salary? $8 million. He’s a $22 to $32 million net asset. That’s enormous – he’s one of the most valuable properties in baseball.
The three prospects the M’s gave up? None of them are top notch, elite guys. They all have potential, but their risk-reward profiles do not put them in the top tier of minor leaguers. Based on the work of Victor Wang, we can quantify the present value of Aumont and Ramirez at about $5 million each and Gillies at about $3 million. That’s $13 million in total, or about half of what Lee is worth.
This is, quite frankly, a heist. The Mariners are getting a Cy Young caliber pitcher for some decent-but-not-great prospects. They aren’t giving up Morrow. They aren’t giving up Saunders. They aren’t even giving up Triunfel. And yet, they walk away with one of the five or six best pitchers in baseball.
Forget that we probably only have Lee for a year. We’re paying for about two months worth of his services and getting four months for free.
Seriously, dance in the streets. Build a bust of Zduriencik and place it on your mantle. Name your first born son Jack and your daughter Jackie. When this becomes official, hug someone. This trade is that good.
This is all assuming that Lee pitches a healthy year and pitches like he has the last two years of course.Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
Of course, but you always evaluate trades with what you know and most likely outcomes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25