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Is defense really that important in baseball?
Someone posted this in the Lowell thread;
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Boston's Defense (UZR)
2009 : -16.3
2008 : 44.3
2007 : 24.1
1) Can someone please explain to me what UZR is, and how its determined.
2) Is one season really enough of a sample size to determine if a team or player is bad or good defensively? Bad luck, plays ruled errors that were hits, players who play with injuries....there seems to be alot of variables that come into any equation.
3) I hear of Bay being a poor defender. Since when did LF defense matter in Boston? Yes, if I had two guys near even in offensive performance i'll take the better "defender" but how much offense is needed to offset the poor defense?
4) Again regarding Bay or any defender who remains in their prime, are these statistics for defense solid enough to truly say as they do for Bay, he was a good defender early in his career and is now subpar? I again go back to sample sizes and variables.
Appreciate all unbiased input.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
1) Can someone please explain to me what UZR is, and how its determined.
In simplest terms, it's the number of runs above or below average contributed on defense.
Some reading on it:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-on-fangraphs/
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/..._2003-03-14_0/
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/..._2003-03-21_0/
(Note that it's been tweaked since those original articles were written by MGL, but that's the jist of it)
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Originally Posted by dickay
2) Is one season really enough of a sample size to determine if a team or player is bad or good defensively? Bad luck, plays ruled errors that were hits, players who play with injuries....there seems to be alot of variables that come into any equation.
To evaluate an individual player's actual defensive skill, one season of information is not enough. In general, one season of UZR is about as reliable as two months of offensive data. Three seasons of UZR is a good indicator of a player's actual defensive ability.
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Originally Posted by dickay
3) I hear of Bay being a poor defender. Since when did LF defense matter in Boston? Yes, if I had two guys near even in offensive performance i'll take the better "defender" but how much offense is needed to offset the poor defense?
A run saved on defense is equivalent to a run scored on offense.
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Originally Posted by dickay
4) Again regarding Bay or any defender who remains in their prime, are these statistics for defense solid enough to truly say as they do for Bay, he was a good defender early in his career and is now subpar? I again go back to sample sizes and variables.
When multiple defensive statistics (UZR, FRAA, RZR, TotalZone, etc.) show similar results AND it matches up with the narrative (in Jason Bay's case, the decline in defensive stats coincided with his knee injury issues), I think it's strong enough evidence to trust with reasonable accuracy.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
I can have Derek Jeter and his offensive / defensive package or Ozzie Smith at the same age (32ish) with his offensive / defensive package. How are the so called experts comparing the two?
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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In simplest terms, it's the number of runs above or below average contributed on defense.
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A run saved on defense is equivalent to a run scored on offense.
How do they "accurately" determine how many runs a guy gave up due to poor defense?
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To evaluate an individual player's actual defensive skill, one season of information is not enough. In general, one season of UZR is about as reliable as two months of offensive data. Three seasons of UZR is a good indicator of a player's actual defensive ability.
So there is NO TRUE way to evaluate a TEAM defense since teams change dramatically over a three season period?
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
I can have Derek Jeter and his offensive / defensive package or Ozzie Smith at the same age (32ish) with his offensive / defensive package. How are the so called experts comparing the two?
Let's see.
We'll use WAR...First, for Jeter. 2006-2009 were his age 32-35 seasons. TotalZone has him at -17 runs on defense over that period. Total WAR, including all offense and defense, of 20.1.
Now, Ozzie. 1987-1990 were his age 32-35 seasons. TotalZone has him at +74 runs on defense. Total WAR of 21.7.
A difference of 1.6 wins over the course of 4 seasons is really not that much, and should also be considered well within the margin of error since defensive stats are not as reliable as offensive stats, so, with reasonable accuracy, you can say that Ozzie Smith/Derek Jeter over the age 32-35 years were roughly equal in overall value.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
How do they "accurately" determine how many runs a guy gave up due to poor defense?
So there is NO TRUE way to evaluate a TEAM defense since teams change dramatically over a three season period?
Team defense is essentially a meaningless concept. There are good fielding players, and bad fielding players. If you get enough bad fielding players on one team - then you have bad team fielding.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Is defense really that important in baseball?????
No need to discuss one single stat here.
Yes, of course it is important.
Now..discussing exactly how it is measured...discussing it's value as opposed to offense/pitching......those are very complex and the stats have a long way to go before FULLY being able to correctly answer those questions.....
but of course defense is very important.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
How do they "accurately" determine how many runs a guy gave up due to poor defense?
For UZR, I linked to the original articles on it. Each defensive stat does it somewhat different, of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
So there is NO TRUE way to evaluate a TEAM defense since teams change dramatically over a three season period?
A teamwide UZR is a fine way to judge how well a team's overall defense performed in one year. The sample size for one individual player is not large enough over the course of one year. But, also, what kenny1234 said.
I prefer to look at a few defensive stats, though, and not just one. If a few systems all estimate a player at roughly the same level, I'm confident that they're accurate - ESPECIALLY if it matches up with the scouting view. My top three defensive stats would be UZR, TotalZone and +/-.
Generally, though, you'll see that the defensive stats actually do tend to match up with the "conventional wisdom" in most cases.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Baseball
50% Offense, 50% Defense
Offense is composed of Batting and Baserunning
Defense is composed of Pitching and Fielding
Somewhere someone (I think it was Tango) came up with how much of Defense was Pitching, and how much was Fielding, but not sure where off the top of my head. I think it was 62% pitching and 38% fielding, on average, but don't quote me on that. Of course, a high K pitcher relies less on his fielders than a low K one does.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
interesting HGM, reading that first link and i'm honestly not going to get too much into it but it practically starts off by saying that the UZR does not take into account OF arms!?!?!!? Isn't that a HUGE part of a corner outfielders defensive game, and doesn't that in itself take away alot of runs?
I'll maybe post more on it once i get through a bit more of it.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dickay
interesting HGM, reading that first link and i'm honestly not going to get too much into it but it practically starts off by saying that the UZR does not take into account OF arms!?!?!!? Isn't that a HUGE part of a corner outfielders defensive game, and doesn't that in itself take away alot of runs?
I'll maybe post more on it once i get through a bit more of it.
It did not then, it does now, that was written a while ago and there have been many improvements.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Note also that the fielding statistics contain a ton of error. As an example, consider Jeter with TotalZone and UZR.
2003 - TZ = -14, UZR = -2
2004 - TZ = 4, UZR = 0
2005 - TZ = -3, UZR = -15
That is why you need to add up a bunch of years, and probably look across statistics that use different methods to decide that Jeter has been a below-average shortstop for most of his career.
That said, I think projecting defensive ability is far harder than offensive ability - lots can change over three years, and the statistics will not reliably pick up on improving, or more commonly, faltering defense.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.
This is the stuff that I don't get?? Seems like the margin of era much be HUGE. I've played the game, mostly a catcher but when I wasn't catching I was in the OF. How does one determine this? Balls move in flight, some are hit harder than others. If they say for example any ball thats hit within 15 feet of an OF should be caught...i'm mean really? Is that how they determine this?
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dickay
interesting HGM, reading that first link and i'm honestly not going to get too much into it but it practically starts off by saying that the UZR does not take into account OF arms!?!?!!? Isn't that a HUGE part of a corner outfielders defensive game, and doesn't that in itself take away alot of runs?
I'll maybe post more on it once i get through a bit more of it.
The first FanGraphs link was from when they first put UZR on the site. Since then, they've changed it. The UZR that is available now from FanGraphs takes into account range, arm, and errors.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
kenny1234
Note also that the fielding statistics contain a ton of error. As an example, consider Jeter with TotalZone and UZR.
2003 - TZ = -14, UZR = -2
2004 - TZ = 4, UZR = 0
2005 - TZ = -3, UZR = -15
That is why you need to add up a bunch of years, and probably look across statistics that use different methods to decide that Jeter has been a below-average shortstop for most of his career.
That said, I think projecting defensive ability is far harder than offensive ability - lots can change over three years, and the statistics will not reliably pick up on improving, or more commonly, faltering defense.
Thanks......i honestly don't know based upon all this how much stock I really can put into any of these numbers. The eye test seems much more plausible than these IMO. And that said....a guy gets 4-5 chances at the plate per game. They very well may not see that many chances in the field per game, and the vast majority of what they do see will be somewhat "routine". I just can't see the recent trend towards good defense at the expense of offense is a workable strategy considering the flaws in all these numbers.
Obviously you can't have stone hands or lead feet at key positions in the field....but I don't see it as complicated as they seem to be making it of late.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dickay
This is the stuff that I don't get?? Seems like the margin of era much be HUGE. I've played the game, mostly a catcher but when I wasn't catching I was in the OF. How does one determine this? Balls move in flight, some are hit harder than others. If they say for example any ball thats hit within 15 feet of an OF should be caught...i'm mean really? Is that how they determine this?
I don't know how UZR adjusts for velocity, etc.
I know that with +/-, they classify each batted ball by it's location, velocity, and other variables. The simplest explanation of +/- is that if you make the play on a ball that any other fielder in the league did NOT make, you get a +1, and if you fail to make a play that any other fielder DID make, you get a -1. Add up the pluses and minuses for all the balls hit in your zone and that's your final +/- score. But, again,, that's a VERY simplified version of +/-, which also now has an accompanying conversion to runs rather than just plays above/below average.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dickay
This is the stuff that I don't get?? Seems like the margin of era much be HUGE. I've played the game, mostly a catcher but when I wasn't catching I was in the OF. How does one determine this? Balls move in flight, some are hit harder than others. If they say for example any ball thats hit within 15 feet of an OF should be caught...i'm mean really? Is that how they determine this?
The idea is that over time the differences between balls hit will even out, after they control for the factors that they control for. Basically an outfielder has an 85% chance of catching a particular ball, given the factors that they can control for. If you catch it 80% of the time, you are below average, if you catch it 90% of the time, you are above average.
But this is why it takes years of data for things to settle out - though I would think that would be position dependent which is something I have never seen measured - shortstops get roughly double the number of chances to display their skill than left-fielders.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
I don't know how UZR adjusts for velocity, etc.
I know that with +/-, they classify each batted ball by it's location, velocity, and other variables. The simplest explanation of +/- is that if you make the play on a ball that any other fielder in the league did NOT make, you get a +1, and if you fail to make a play that any other fielder DID make, you get a -1. Add up the pluses and minuses for all the balls hit in your zone and that's your final +/- score. But, again,, that's a VERY simplified version of +/-, which also now has an accompanying conversion to runs rather than just plays above/below average.
i'm almost sorry i asked, feel a bit dizzy and lightheaded right now.
i'm sure all these different stats taking as a whole have some merit...i'm just not sure how much as from the minutia of detail in each of these stats i'm sure there must be tons of people who have never played trying to compile and determine velocities and compare with every other ball hit to every other fielder. Margin of era has to be large.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dickay
This is the stuff that I don't get?? Seems like the margin of era much be HUGE. I've played the game, mostly a catcher but when I wasn't catching I was in the OF. How does one determine this? Balls move in flight, some are hit harder than others. If they say for example any ball thats hit within 15 feet of an OF should be caught...i'm mean really? Is that how they determine this?
They partition the field up and then look at how often a player got to a ball there, (and I believe the value of a ball hit there) and then compare it to how often a particular player got to hit there.
Try to look at it with a neutrally critical eye.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
Thanks......i honestly don't know based upon all this how much stock I really can put into any of these numbers. The eye test seems much more plausible than these IMO.
I don't know why you would IGNORE the data completely. Don't put much stock in it, sure, I disagree but understand to an extent, but to ignore it completely reeks of willful ignorance.
The eyes are deceitful... and, also, practically impossible to use truly evaluate a player in relation to the rest of the league, since it's impossible for any one person to see everything that goes on. The eyes are fooled by flashy plays. Those jumping spin throws that Derek Jeter makes look impressive. That's why people think he's an awesome fielder... but a better fielder like, say, Adam Everett, would likely get to those balls quicker and make a play that looks routine. Since it looked easy, the eyes will tell us that it was an easy play, while the Derek Jeter one was impressive, when in reality it was simply because Everett has more range and got to the ball with ease while Jeter lacks such range and needed to expend great effort to make the play.
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Originally Posted by dickay
I just can't see the recent trend towards good defense at the expense of offense is a workable strategy considering the flaws in all these numbers.
Nobody's advocating defense at the expense of offense. However, I think that the recent trend of teams placing a premium on defense and experiencing a large turnaround in the standings is pretty solid evidence that it's not a foolhardy endeavor. Look at the Mariners and Rangers this past year, or the Rays in 2008, or the Rockies in 2007.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
The best thing to do with defensive statistics is to use them with the eye test. More often then not a scout will say this guy is a pretty good defender but his UZR numbers are horrific. The true answer is probably somewhere in the middle.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
i'm sure all these different stats taking as a whole have some merit...i'm just not sure how much as from the minutia of detail in each of these stats i'm sure there must be tons of people who have never played trying to compile and determine velocities and compare with every other ball hit to every other fielder. Margin of era has to be large.
Huh?
First, I have no idea what the thing about having never played the game has to do with compiling data.
Secondly, there's no margin of error on determining velocities and locations and such of balls in play. There's technology that tracks all that.
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Originally Posted by SirKodiak
They partition the field up and then look at how often a player got to a ball there, (and I believe the value of a ball hit there) and then compare it to how often a particular player got to hit there.
That's about the most succinct and simplest explanation I've seen.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
SirKodiak
They partition the field up and then look at how often a player got to a ball there, (and I believe the value of a ball hit there) and then compare it to how often a particular player got to hit there.
Try to look at it with a neutrally critical eye.
I truly am. but as has been mentioned, i don't see how that can be anywhere near accurate. ball flight changes, and velocity are two of many items that might impact its effectiveness.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dickay
i'm almost sorry i asked, feel a bit dizzy and lightheaded right now.
i'm sure all these different stats taking as a whole have some merit...i'm just not sure how much as from the minutia of detail in each of these stats i'm sure there must be tons of people who have never played trying to compile and determine velocities and compare with every other ball hit to every other fielder. Margin of era has to be large.
bio for the creator of UZR when The Book came out:
Mitchel Lichtman has been doing sabermetric research for over 17 years. He is currently the senior analyst for a major league team. He has a B.S. degree from Cornell University and a J.D. from the University of Nevada. He lives in the Finger Lakes Region of N.Y. with his family, three dogs, and three cats.
He has mentioned many times that he played baseball, though I am not sure at what level, nor does that have any bearing on whether he can make a good defensive metric.
In fact, Tom Tango does a fan scouting report every year that uses the eyes of the fans to rate players abilities.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
I truly am. but as has been mentioned, i don't see how that can be anywhere near accurate. ball flight changes, and velocity are two of many items that might impact its effectiveness.
That is why they are so excited about what Hit f/x does for them. I measures the flight including velocity.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Does anyone speak english on the forum? What is with all this crazy talk? I feel like I landed on a different planet! What happened to field %?? Seemed like a good way to measure defense to me...
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
SirKodiak
That is why they are so excited about what Hit f/x does for them. I measures the flight including velocity.
now this is interesting. is it being used?
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Nobody's advocating defense at the expense of offense. However, I think that the recent trend of teams placing a premium on defense and experiencing a large turnaround in the standings is pretty solid evidence that it's not a foolhardy endeavor. Look at the Mariners and Rangers this past year, or the Rays in 2008, or the Rockies in 2007.
I find it very shortsighted to award any of those performances merely to improved defense. I'm going to also assume that better pitching yields better defensive ratings which shouldn't technically be the case?
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
now this is interesting. is it being used?
I believe this year it was used mostly for testing purposes as they try to dial the system in and get analysts figuring out how to use the data, much like they did with pitch f/x
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
dickay
I find it very shortsighted to award any of those performances merely to improved defense. I'm going to also assume that better pitching yields better defensive ratings which shouldn't technically be the case?
All of the measures condition on the general path of balls in play - so the effects of pitching are minimized.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
yomamaimontv
Does anyone speak english on the forum? What is with all this crazy talk? I feel like I landed on a different planet! What happened to field %?? Seemed like a good way to measure defense to me...
No, fielding percentage sucks, but I can tell from your quality post percentage that you need more times in the minors.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Evaluating fielding with fielding % is like trying to evaluate a hitter's skill with HBPs. I.e. completely useless.
The thing about the new fielding stats like UZR and +/- is that, while they are not perfect and have significant margins of error, they are vastly superior to range factor, fielding % and errors, and whatever else that people used to be using.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
yomamaimontv
Does anyone speak english on the forum? What is with all this crazy talk? I feel like I landed on a different planet! What happened to field %?? Seemed like a good way to measure defense to me...
It's not. At all.
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Originally Posted by
dickay
I find it very shortsighted to award any of those performances merely to improved defense. I'm going to also assume that better pitching yields better defensive ratings which shouldn't technically be the case?
Why would better pitching yield better defensive ratings? It'd be more of the OPPOSITE. A better defense will yield lower ERA's (and thus better "pitching", though defense obviously wouldn't have an effect on the pitching aspects like walks, home runs allowed and strikeouts).
Furthermore, the pitching staffs of those teams were largely unchanged from the previous year, yet there were clear and obvious defensive upgrades (Franklin Gutierrez in Seattle, Elvis Andrus in Texas, etc.). Do you think Jarrod Washburn suddenly became amazing at pitching and then started sucking when he left Seattle, or is it just that, as a flyball pitcher, the ridiculous range of Gutierrez superficially improved Washburn's statistics?
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Originally Posted by haveacigar
The thing about the new fielding stats like UZR and +/- is that, while they are not perfect and have significant margins of error, they are vastly superior to range factor, fielding % and errors, and whatever else that people used to be using.
This.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
KowboyKoop
No, fielding percentage sucks, but I can tell from your quality post percentage that you need more times in the minors.
What does that mean? Anyone know if these stats are going to be incorporated into the next BM game?
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
yomamaimontv
What does that mean? Anyone know if these stats are going to be incorporated into the next BM game?
That'd be outstanding, but I don't know how easy such implementation would be.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dickay
Thanks......i honestly don't know based upon all this how much stock I really can put into any of these numbers. The eye test seems much more plausible than these IMO. And that said....a guy gets 4-5 chances at the plate per game. They very well may not see that many chances in the field per game, and the vast majority of what they do see will be somewhat "routine". I just can't see the recent trend towards good defense at the expense of offense is a workable strategy considering the flaws in all these numbers.
Obviously you can't have stone hands or lead feet at key positions in the field....but I don't see it as complicated as they seem to be making it of late.
Well, the strategy of adding defense is independent of how good UZR and +/- stats are. If you replace a bad fielder with a good fielder, you will improve on defense and record more outs. That happens irrespective of whether UZR and +/- are accurate indicators of fielding ability.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Why would better pitching yield better defensive ratings? It'd be more of the OPPOSITE. A better defense will yield lower ERA's (and thus better "pitching", though defense obviously wouldn't have an effect on the pitching aspects like walks, home runs allowed and strikeouts).
Furthermore, the pitching staffs of those teams were largely unchanged from the previous year, yet there were clear and obvious defensive upgrades (Franklin Gutierrez in Seattle, Elvis Andrus in Texas, etc.). Do you think Jarrod Washburn suddenly became amazing at pitching and then started sucking when he left Seattle, or is it just that, as a flyball pitcher, the ridiculous range of Gutierrez superficially improved Washburn's statistics?
Yeah, this. Having watched the Tigers all season, they went from a 70 win team to an 86 win team despite getting significantly worse on offense. They also got way better on defense, and it definitely showed. Attempting to determine whether good pitching improves defense or good defense improves pitching is circular; they work in tandem, and one improving will necessarily improve the other.
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Re: Is defense really that important in baseball?
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Originally Posted by
haveacigar
Evaluating fielding with fielding % is like trying to evaluate a hitter's skill with HBPs. I.e. completely useless.
The thing about the new fielding stats like UZR and +/- is that, while they are not perfect and have significant margins of error, they are vastly superior to range factor, fielding % and errors, and whatever else that people used to be using.
agree they are better...but as you said have significant margins of error. thus, my concern is that people take them too literally. and with that large margin of error, i fear it must be near impossible to do with anykind of accuracy what I see done in here all the time. And that is, when someone says offensively player X is worth this many runs, and defensively he's worth this amount of runs, thus he's better than that guy. I have faith that the offensive ones are pretty valid...i have little faith in the defensive ones.
