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David Segui's dads name is Diego, so I HAD to vote for him. Duh. Also, his dad played on both the Mariners & Pilots and pitched the inaugural game in '77.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
If that doesn't get Segui in then the writers should probably go kill themselves.
It's going to come down to oral sex? That's a different approach. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
I voted the usual suspects, but I forgot McGwire. I wonder how much steroids help a player become a gold glove first baseman? He belongs.
My God, that was great. Laughed for a good minute and a half straight. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by dps
Well playedQuote:
Originally Posted by dps
he won 1 gold glove...Quote:
Originally Posted by Rexington
I have suspisions that there actually may be no players voted in this year. The writers view things differently than many here do. Alomar will not be viewed as a "1st ballot" HOF. Blyleven is in the Jim Rice mode, he'll get in, but maybe not yet. McGwire might as well be Pete Rose as far as many writers are concerned. Unless some band wagon starts for Larkin or Trammell, they just arn't drawing enough attention.
Hope I'm wrong.
Alomar and Larkin have very impressive resumes of stuff the writers love to see. Alomar has 12 All Star Games and 10 Gold Gloves. Larkin has 12 All Star Games, 3 Gold Gloves and an MVP. I think they both may have to wait a year or so because as much as writers like to trumpet how much they appreciate the little things and all those stupid statheads just like to wait for the 3 run homer, when it comes down to actually voting for things, those same writers fall in love with HR and RBI and don't appreciate the guys that do everything well without having one standout skill....but I think they both will eventually get in.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldYankFan
I also think both Dawson and Blyleven will make it in this year.
I vote Alomar Mattingly and Smith
I wouldn't be surprised if no-one makes it this year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if as many as 4 guys make it. Actually, there are more than that that may have a decent chance, but the way the HoF vote is conducted, structurally it's hard to get 4 guys elected in a year, much less 5 or more.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
vote Crime Dog!!
No.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiceDig
McGriff was a great player, and he had a long streak of 30 homer seasons. But I don't think he is really that close to being a hall of famer.
He has the same # of HRs as Lou Gehrig. 'Nuff said. Plus...was clutch RBI-man, reliable with the glove, had a nice mustace, was a great TV commercial pitchman, and the face of the Blue Jays in the late 1980s
I also voted for Robby Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Dale Murphy, The Hawk Andre Dawson, Barry Larkin, and Edgar Martinez.
Dave Sequi and Shane Reynolds, really? How does one even get on the ballot?
You can't be serious here...Quote:
Originally Posted by DiceDig
By being a regular for 10+ years in MLB.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiceDig
Let me preface this by saying I'm a day one, die-hard Blue Jay fan and a big fan of Fred McGriff, probably not as big of a fan as Doris Gillick (the GM Pat's wife), who left multiple messages on Pat's hotel room phone at the Winter Meetings in 1990, expressing her displeasure/downright disgust/anger, the day he was traded with Tony Fernandez for Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar in one of the greatest trades in baseball history. But, he ain't no Hall of Famer.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiceDig
I'm pretty sure you meant to put some sort of smilie to indicate sarcasm with the Gehrig comment, but you didn't, so let me reassure you that he's not fit to hold Lou Gehrig's jockstrap, much less hold a similar place in baseball history. There's so much more to a player's overall (offense plus defense; BTW every metric I can find says McGriff was a below average defensive 1B, so this actually pulls his value down) value than how many HR he hit over his career, especially in this era of spiked HR totals.
To use a quick and dirty comparison of a player's value to his team, currently Lou Gehrig holds down the number 13 position in all-time WAR (Wins Above Replacement) amongst position players. He is number 1 among 1B, which is the position Crime Dog played. In 139 years worth of baseball, he's arguably the best 1B and the 13th best position player. McGriff is the number 164 position player in all-time WAR. Carlos Beltran blew past him this year in his 12th season (McGriff played 19). Next year Ichiro will leave him in the dust in his 10th season, on his way to Cooperstown. He's number 26 among his fellow 1B all-time. If we remove guys who played 1B more games than any other position, but did not play more than 50% of their games there like Rod Carew, Pete Rose, Jim Thome, Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, and Dick Allen (Allen deserves induction way more than McGriff and he's still not in), he still only gets up to number 20. Alan Trammell can't buy a vote and he's number 10 in WAR at SS all-time, and some folks are getting upset over McGriff not being in. :rolleyes: George Sisler's (2800+ hits, most of them singles) and Tony Perez' (ugh, don't get me started) inductions (both Hall of Very Gooders, as is McGriff) don't justify making another mistake by putting Freddy in.
I always love it when people pull the whole: "...was a clutch RBI guy" statement out of nowhere, without taking a few minutes to look up whether it's true or not. Sadly, it's not true with McGriff. In order to be a great clutch hitter, you've got to "get a hit when it counts". His five highest batting averages came: 1) With a runner on 1st 2) In all 1 out situations 3) In situations where the margin was greater than 4 runs 4) In all 0 out situations, and 5) With men on, though as we'll soon see most of this was due to how well he hit with a runner at 1B. His five lowest batting averages occurred: 1) In 2 out RISP situations 2) In all 2 out situations 3) In "Late + Close" situations 4) With RISP and 5) With the bases empty. Not exactly the profile of a clutch hitter. He had 3 OBP splits of .395 or better: 1) With RISP 2) With 2 out with RISP, and 3) With Men On. In other words he passed the baton to the next guy in situations where getting a hit is more advantageous to the team. Finally using ISOP (Isolated Power = SLG minus AVG), we see that his largest power output happened when: 1) The margin was greater than 4 runs 2) All 0 out situations 3) All 1 out situations 4) With a runner on 1B and 5) With the bases empty. His lowest ISOP scores occurred: 1) In 2 out RISP situations 2) In Late + Close situations 3) In all 2 out situations 4) In RISP situations and 5) With men on. That ain't clutch.
Freddy may have been the face of the Blue Jays from 1988 through 1990, but his career had two distinct halves to it. To wit:
First 9 years: 36.7 WAR (4.1 WAR/year: all-star level: put up 15+ years of that and Cooperstown is yours)
Final 10 years: 13.8 WAR (1.4 WAR/year: not very valuable at all)
Looks to me like Freddy held on way too long, chasing down that magical number 500 HR and in the process hurt his teams. If you'd asked me after 1994, whether he was on a HOF pace, I'd have said definitely, but for the body of work from 1986-2004, definitely not.
And if he had 7 more homers, would he be in? I agree with AJ, as I said, I simply cannot see him in Cooperstown, and I don't see the writers voting him in.
Some could say so, and sadly, I think 7 more homers would have put him in there. But I think AJ just put me over the edge on not believing he is a hall of famer. Thank you.
If he had 7 more home runs, I'd say he'd be more likely to actually make it in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffy25
It wouldn't change my opinion that he's squarely in the "Hall of Very Good" though.
I agree, I am saying that I think he would make it if he had 7, doesn't make him more deservingQuote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
That sealed it for me. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by DiceDig
The reason I want McGriff in is consistency. If you can put up great-to-above average numbers for 17 years, then you should be in, IMO.
THIS! And any other time I see a 999 or 2,999. I vaguely recall that he was going to make the Mets squad as a pinch-hitter and backup 1B but he decided to retire. DAMMIT!Quote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdubmu
Wow, I really hope that's true about Bert this year. If HGM says it, then it's absolutely true.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Tried to show this in my above post, but here it is again in more common metrics, along with WAR.Quote:
Originally Posted by free2131
First 9 years: 4714 PA .285/.389/.541/.930 153 OPS+ 262 HR 710 RBI .256 ISOP (Isolated Power) 36.7 WAR (4.1 WAR per year)
Final 10 years: 5460 PA .284/.367/.482/.849 119 OPS+ 231 HR 840 RBI .198 ISOP 13.8 WAR (1.4 WAR per year)
This is the portrait of a player who hung on too long, reaching for the ultimately unreachable star of 500 HR and in so doing hurt his teams more than helping them over the final 10 years. Early on, fewer plate appearances with greater impact, later more plate appearances of meh. Yes, the batting average stayed the same, but it had far less oomph behind it. That 153 OPS+ over the first nine is the same as HOF 1B Roger Connor, while the 119 OPS+ over the course of the final ten is the same as Nate Colbert, Harry Davis and Mark Grace, none of whom should ever be confused with HOF level hitting 1B. The dropoff from Connor to those three is steep.
Over the final 10 years his best 3 OPS+ seasons were 144, 142, and 125, after averaging 153 over the first 9. He capped off the first 9 seasons with 7 straight 30 HR seasons. Over the final 10, at the height of the steroid/juiced ball/corked bat era he hit 32 in '99 (having completely fallen off the map between 1995 and 1998), 31 in '01 and 30 in '02. Try to avoid getting BBWAAitis and falling under the spell of the 10 30 HR seasons and the 8 100 RBI seasons. There's so much more to it than that, particularly when you consider that that wasn't that big of a deal at all for most of the era that he played in.
Consistency you say? First 9 seasons, consistent all-star/HOF level stuff given enough seasons at that level, final 10 seasons, consistent meh, particularly from the 1B position in that era. Add in a little bit of a penalty for slightly below average defense as well and you have a Hall Of Very Gooder, not a Hall Of Famer.
Finally, re: WAR/year, let's go to Los Angeles. Last year Angels' 1B Kendry Morales, a Gold Glove type defender and inferior hitter to the good McGriff, had a 4.2 WAR season. Just down the interstate, James Loney played slightly above average defense and crapped the bed offensively, finishing with a 1.4 WAR season. I don't need to tell you the difference between the crosstown 1B, you could probably look it up on Angels' and Dodgers' blogs on the interwebs. :D That difference is the same as the difference between the Fred McGriff of 1986 through 1994 and the Fred McGriff of 1995 through 2004. I'm sure some Dodger fans on our friendly neighbourhood forum invented new cuss words for Loney's craptacularity so far in his career. It's not exactly something ballplayer's strive for. Only Adam Dunn and his abysmal defense (he did spend more time in the OF though), Daniel Murphy and Aubrey Huff were of less value to their teams at 1B than Loney.
Notice that I said great to above average. I know he went through a decline. I also know that with any other player, I might be more unbiased, but the Braves got McGriff around the time I really fell in love with baseball.
So, he is a fringe HOF, who probably doesn't deserve to be in. I reserve the right to play my homer card, and since I'm not saying Mark Lemke should be in the hall, I think you can give me a pass on this one. ;)
It would be so looong overdue, it's ridiculous. He is flat out the best player that is eligible for induction and yet year after year he's passed over for far inferior players *cough Jim Rice cough, cough*.Quote:
Originally Posted by BINGLEBOP
Top 20 all-time pitchers in WAR (not the best stat for pitchers, but the most easily accessible):
Cy Young, Roger Clemens, Walter Johnson, Tom Seaver, Pete Alexander, Kid Nichols, Lefty Grove, Greg Maddux, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Warren Spahn, Randy Johnson, Bert Blyleven, Christy Mathewson, Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Tim Keefe, John Clarkson, and Fergie Jenkins. There's no doubt about the others HOF status (Clemens misremembering issues aside). Why is there any doubt about Rik Aalbert Blyleven's? It's gone from sublime to ridiculous. All of those pitchers are in already except Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, and Blyleven. The first three guys are ineligible and won't be eligible until 2013 when Clemens becomes eligible, with Maddux becoming eligible in 2014. God knows when Randy Johnson will become eligible, so just put "Circle Me" Bert in already. :rolleyes:
I finally voted, and I ended up staying with the 8 guys I mentioned in my first post. There were several tough borderline cases on this year's ballot, and I might change my mind on some of those guys next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by dps
Incidentally, if our poll is any reflection of what the voters will do, only Alomar and Blyleven will go in this year, and just barely (both right at the required 75% after I voted).
Ah yes, lol on Lemke. The Scrappy McSrapperstein of his day. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by free2131
Pete Rose (who has major issues in terms of the HOF), Mark McGwire (one of the primary scapegoats of the steroid era), the bristly Dick Allen, and slick fielding Keith Hernandez should all be put in before Fred McGriff. Next year the list of guys deserving to go in will be extended by the inclusion of Jeff Bagwell, who was one of the greatest and most underrated 1B of all-time, another dude with issues: Rafael Palmeiro, and one of McGriff's fellow fringe HOFers: John Olerud. Also on the bubble with McGriff are Will Clark and Norm Cash, 2 guys who had higher WAR scores in far less playing time than McGriff. Then there are active players like (El Hombre) Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, and on the bubble active players like Todd Helton and Jason Giambi.
I love the guy, but he's really up against it at 1B. My favourite stories about McGriff are the outrage expressed by Pat Gillick's wife Doris when he traded him to San Diego and the way he was acquired from the Yankees. RP Dale "Spud" Murray, and OF Tom Dodd (16 lifetime PA for BAL in 1986) were sent to the Yankees. Coming back to the Jays were OF Dave Collins (another scrapper and a very good backup OF/OK starting LF), SP Mike Morgan, cash, and a prospect. Gillick, the sly dog that he is, made it appear to the Yankees that McGriff was plan C, when that was his target all along. I'm not sure who plan A and plan B were, but they were rebuffed immediately by the Yankees, so he inquired about some 18 year old 1B who had just completed his second season of Rookie ball in the Gulf Coast League. What a heist. It put GMs on notice that Gillick could pick you clean if you didn't watch it. :D
All you have to do is look at his rule V picks over the years to see the threat he posed. Jim Acker, George Bell, Jim Gott, Kelly Gruber, Manuel Lee, Jose Nunez and Willie Upshaw all came out of this draft. None were superstars, but they all made a positive contribution and Bell and Gruber played at an all-star level during some seasons in Toronto. Geronimo Berroa, Xavier Hernandez, and Graeme Lloyd were plucked from the organization and went on to have decent seasons elsewhere.
But I digress. To paraphrase Allen Iverson, we're talking 'bout Crime Dog...I mean it's only Crime Dog etc etc etc ad nauseam.
It's not - at all. There's a lot of quirky and joke votes that throw off the overall percentages...like 200tang voting only for David Segui.Quote:
Originally Posted by dps
Don't forget Kevin Brown and Larry Walker, who probably both won't get any support from the writers but each have very impressive resumes.Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson
I was sticking with 1B only, as the sentence that opens the next paragraph: "I love the guy, but he's really up against it at 1B..." would indicate. :) As for Brown and Walker, both should sail in, but we all know how quirky those pesky writers can be. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Ah, I gotcha.
Oh, yeah, I know. I was just sayin'.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
BTW, I do expect Alomar to do well; he may not get 75% this year, but I figure that he'll almost certainly be selected by the writers at some point. How soon depends largely on how much BBWAA members penalize him for the spitting incident--not necessarily just directly penalizing him, but how much the matter clouds their persception of him. He is fortunate that his strengths pretty much play right into the things the writers have traditionally gone for in HoF votes.
Eddie and others (jpz17, Kellys11, nwu, rschusta24, slickydo, yanks27, etc.), why did you elect not to vote for Blyleven? Curious.
lol, I like that you name Eddie and then just lump everyone else in to "others".
Bingle as a fatherly role in Eddie's life (Even though his name is Daniel... lol)Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
LOL! Well, I was initially going to pose the question only to Eddie, but then I decided not to put the spotlight on only him (even though it is now!), so I looked at who else didn't vote for him. Although I only looked at those who voted for Alomar and not Blyleven, so I'm sure I missed a couple more.Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
Only when he was a genius. After he gave up the title, I disowned him and kicked him out of the house. I've since adopted a Somalian child named N'dgidimalapa.Quote:
Originally Posted by FloydtheBarber
Of course, you can't keep someone that dishonorable within your presence, he would only bring shame to you and your family for generations.Quote:
Originally Posted by BINGLEBOP
Todd Zeile and Ellis Burks have zero votes? And the Big Cat only has two?!?
Where is rockiesfan4ever and yamiviet? They need to up those Rockies votes.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...2&sportCat=mlb
This sentence made me laugh:
Quote:
McGriff moved around so much that if he does reach Cooperstown, the most logical cap for his plaque is the goofy one he wore for the Tom Emanski fundamentals commercial.