Lincecum's Arbitration Number: $23 Million Plus?

Interesting article on MLBTR:

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Yahoo's Tim Brown penned a column today about Tim Lincecum's likely record-setting arbitration case that included this tidbit from an unnamed baseball executive. Lincecum's agents and the MLB Players' Union had discussed the possibility of submitting an arbitration figure of $23MM plus one dollar for the back-to-back Cy Young Award winner. Why the extra dollar? So Lincecum would be making 100 cents more than the highest-paid pitcher in baseball, C.C. Sabathia. The symbolic number would reflect Lincecum's unprecedented success this early in his career.

As Brown notes, Lincecum and his team would almost certainly lose their case by posting such a high number. Since the Giants' bid, however, is almost obligated to be in the eight-figure range, it seems guaranteed that Lincecum's final 2010 salary will exceed the record $10MM arbitration award given to Ryan Howard following his MVP season in 2007.

This could be all moot, of course, if the Giants don't let Lincecum get to arbitration in the first place. It was previously reported that Lincecum was open to a contract extension in San Francisco, for an amount that would likely top Zach Greinke's four-year/$38MM deal with the Royals. Brown speculates that a Lincecum extension could be closer to the three-year/$54 million contract that Howard signed with Philadelphia last February.

One almost hopes that Lincecum and the Giants don't come to terms so we can see, in the words of MLBTR's Mike Axisa, "the most awesome first year arbitration case in history."

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Who can argue that he wouldn't deserve it? I have to agree that MLB is probably pushing the Giants to hurry and do an extension, ASAP.

What would be a fair contract? 3 yr./ $54 MM? I would say that he might could get close to $15 MM through arbitration, and if he has another season like the last two in 2010, would we be seeing a $30 MM arbitration number?

If I'm the Giants, I offer 4 yr./ $80 MM, and hope he doesn't want to ge year to year.

yikes!

give him a 6 year deal/106

13-15-17-19-20-22

I personally wouldn't want to go more than 5 years to a pitcher, but that's just me.

I think he would turn down any extension of more than 4 years, as he would want to maximize his income. Just my opinion on that, though.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

yikes!

give him a 6 year deal/106

13-15-17-19-20-22

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I don't even think that would be enough. It would probably need to be like 6/130.

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Originally Posted by 200tang

I don't even think that would be enough. It would probably need to be like 6/130.

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If he wanted that much, i would probably go 4 or 5 years then....but ya...you are probably right.

maybe we go 5/100 then

15-17-20-23-25

Such a frail body, it has to break down at some point. I would be scared giving a long term deal.

personally, i wouldn't be.

I think he has the frame, and mechanics to last until he is at least 30 before he slows down.

I hope he doesn't follow the likes of J.R. Richard, Dwight Gooden etc.

Big risk, but it's still better than the deal you are giving to Zito ;)

doc didn't rellay have injury problems he had drug problems

That could be a lot of weed, with 23-mil

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

personally, i wouldn't be.

I think he has the frame, and mechanics to last until he is at least 30 before he slows down.

I hope he doesn't follow the likes of J.R. Richard, Dwight Gooden etc.

Big risk, but it's still better than the deal you are giving to Zito ;)

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Well heck ya it is, im not that stupid. How Sabean still has a job is beyond my comprehension.

this is true, but i'm pretty sure it wasn't pot for Doc, but it could be for Lince ;)

Coke anyone?

I hear Michael Irving is available

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Originally Posted by ragecage

Such a frail body, it has to break down at some point. I would be scared giving a long term deal.

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I agree. Historically speaking smaller bodies generally break down much quicker than bigger more physical pitchers. Lincecum could very well be an outlier, but it's something to consider. As for the contract though, the break down generally doesn't happen until the 30's, so the Giants shouldn't be afraid of giving him a deal until his early 30's.

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Originally Posted by ragecage

Well heck ya it is, im not that stupid. How Sabean still has a job is beyond my comprehension.

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There was an article on mlbtraderumors the other day where they looked back on it and a new york reporter bashed the mets for not signing him:D

i bet that reporter is sooo smart!

it's easy to yell at executives 3 years later.


the whole league could have had albert

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Originally Posted by 200tang

I agree. Historically speaking smaller bodies generally break down much quicker than bigger more physical pitchers. Lincecum could very well be an outlier, but it's something to consider. As for the contract though, the break down generally doesn't happen until the 30's, so the Giants shouldn't be afraid of giving him a deal until his early 30's.

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Yeah the reason I say it is because of Tim Hudson, who has a similar small frame. During their 20's the Giants should surely lock him up until his early 30's.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

this is true, but i'm pretty sure it wasn't pot for Doc, but it could be for Lince ;)

Coke anyone?

I hear Michael Irving is available

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Ive never heard of Micheal Irving, but I have heard of Micheal Irvin. :p

My gut is that Lincecum is an outlier.

There's really nothing I'm basing this on except that I really like his mechanics, and that he has claimed he hasn't had arm pain at all (possibly/probably untrue, but it's something to consider, and I give it more weight considering he has zero arm injury history).

So, yeah. I just have an instant that Lincecum is, you know, "The Freak." :)

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

My gut is that Lincecum is an outlier.

There's really nothing I'm basing this on except that I really like his mechanics, and that he has claimed he hasn't had arm pain at all (possibly/probably untrue, but it's something to consider, and I give it more weight considering he has zero arm injury history).

So, yeah. I just have an instant that Lincecum is, you know, "The Freak." :)

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Then people would try and be like him and many players would be ruined;)

I think Albert will be getting an extension after the 2011 season that is something like this

7/175

19-21-23-25-27-30-30

I honestly think something like this will get it done in st. louis so long as you remain competitive the next two years and keeping the team competitive

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

My gut is that Lincecum is an outlier.

There's really nothing I'm basing this on except that I really like his mechanics, and that he has claimed he hasn't had arm pain at all (possibly/probably untrue, but it's something to consider, and I give it more weight considering he has zero arm injury history).

So, yeah. I just have an instant that Lincecum is, you know, "The Freak." :)

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Im with you there on that. Im no sure what to make of him. I guess what it comes down to is what team can afford to give him that big contract and it wont hinder the franchise if he goes down.

Giants would go down. Some east coast teams can afford the risk/reward. ;)

Pretty sure the Giants can afford him ;)

I think they can

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

I think Albert will be getting an extension after the 2011 season that is something like this

7/175

19-21-23-25-27-30-30

I honestly think something like this will get it done in st. louis so long as you remain competitive the next two years and keeping the team competitive

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I know you love Pujols but this is TIMMY's thread

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Originally Posted by ewing6

I know you love Pujols but this is TIMMY's thread

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:mad:

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Originally Posted by ewing6

I know you love Pujols but this is TIMMY's thread

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When one is infatuated with another, they tend to bring them up very often

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Originally Posted by ewing6

I know you love Pujols but this is TIMMY's thread

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http://library.thinkquest.org/07aug/01266/timmy.jpg

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Originally Posted by FloydtheBarber

When one is infatuated with another, they tend to bring them up very often

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I don't really think i bring him up THAT much, since there are constant chances to bring him up ;)

although:

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This could be an item for the 'Saying All The Right Things' file, but MLB.com's Matthew Leach reported that at the press conference for Albert Pujols' MVP Award, the Cardinals superstar said he wanted to play in St. Louis, "hopefully for 15 more years if I can play for that long and can retire as a Cardinal."

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

:mad:

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Don't worry Jeffy. You're nowhere near the infatuation level displayed by Cards (the Mogul forum member, not the team). Now that is a serious man-crush. :p

Trade him to the Yankees and get it over with.

That long haired pot smoking hippie belongs in prison. By giving him any contract extension it sends a terrible message.

sarcasm? or seriousness?

I think sarcasm.

Hopefully sarcasm

Yeah I was ****ing around. Couldn't resist the urge. That being said look for him to "flame" out in a few years.

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

Yeah I was ****ing around. Couldn't resist the urge. That being said look for him to "flame" out in a few years.

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Why?

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Why?

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It's called "a play on words." Smoke weed. Flame. kinda go together.......

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

It's called "a play on words." Smoke weed. Flame. kinda go together.......

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Aha. I missed the quotes around flame when I read it.

I find myself trading my starting pitchers way too soon in Mogul when they become FA eligible. But, if I were the GM in SF right now, I'd lock Tim up. 5 years, $140 million, a hand-blown glass bong, and 25 pounds of Maui-Wowie should get the job done.