2010 CHONE Projections

w00t!

http://www.baseballprojection.com/

As with always, ignore Ichiro and Jamie Moyer, forecast systems have no idea what to do with those 2.

As for the Mariners specifically..they need a ton of help offensively, according to these projections anyways. We already knew this though so it's not surprising.

However, it looks like CHONE is waaaay to optimistic on some people. Dave Cameron sent the guy who does this an e-mail already because...

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I think the minor league guys are wrong
I’ve sent Sean an email, but in looking through the projections, the AAAA types are just too optimistic. Shelley Duncan has the same offensive projection as Russ Branyan. Danny Richar has the same projection as Felipe Lopez. There’s 50 examples just like that. If a guy had good numbers in Triple-A, regardless of previous performance or age, he’s projected as a league average or better hitter in the majors for 2010.

Jon Knott, who will be 31 in the spring and had a mediocre season in the Mexican League last year after an okay but not great minor league career, is projected as a league average hitter in the majors next year.

That’s nutty.

The only thing I can come up with is Sean missed a translation somewhere.

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Andy Tracy and Raul Ibanez have the same projection
Andy Tracy is 36, so you can’t even use aging curves to explain it.

These projections are just wrong. I’d put $100 on Sean issuing a fixed set in the next few days.

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If Scott Sizemore gets a .710 OPS next year, I'll eat my hat.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

If Scott Sizemore gets a .710 OPS next year, I'll eat my hat.

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I feel the same about Michael Saunders and Tuiasosopo's projections. Both are expected to put up an OPS in the .600's. They're both rookies, but that's still way low after the numbers they put up in AAA.

I thought this was going to be a set of predictions about Chone Figgins.

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

I thought this was going to be a set of predictions about Chone Figgins.

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Haha I was thinking the same thing at first. Those projections seem very odd and nutty. I don't know how anyone can project Shelly Duncan to do as well as anyone who has actually proven themselves full-time, or Andy Tracy for that matter.

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Originally Posted by rschusta24

Haha I was thinking the same thing at first. Those projections seem very odd and nutty. I don't know how anyone can project Shelly Duncan to do as well as anyone who has actually proven themselves full-time, or Andy Tracy for that matter.

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It looks like it's only happening with minor league players. I'm guessing he messed up somewhere and it'll be fixed soon.

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Originally Posted by 200tang

It looks like it's only happening with minor league players. I'm guessing he messed up somewhere and it'll be fixed soon.

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Haha I'd hope so :p

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Originally Posted by 200tang

As with always, ignore Ichiro and Jamie Moyer, forecast systems have no idea what to do with those 2.

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Why would that be the case with Ichiro? Moyer, I can understand, because he's so far defied normal expectations about how a player ages, but Ichiro should be easy. We know that he's going to have a good batting average, but few walks and little power, and that he'll still a good number of bases. You don't even need a formula to project that.

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Originally Posted by dps

Why would that be the case with Ichiro? Moyer, I can understand, because he's so far defied normal expectations about how a player ages, but Ichiro should be easy. We know that he's going to have a good batting average, but few walks and little power, and that he'll still a good number of bases. You don't even need a formula to project that.

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Ichiro is a whole other breed when it comes to hitting because of his BABIP. The projection systems for the last few years have projected him to hit his decline, but he continues to produce far and away better than they say. There really aren't any players to compare him to.

Unless you believe he's going to produce : .305/.338/.400 (738 OPS). Ichiro will eventually decline, but it doesn't count when projection systems have projected him to decline every year. Just because it's possible that doesn't make it a good projection.

Here are Ichiro's projections from the past 3 years

2009 : .302/.353/.392
2008 : .302,/.353/.392
2007 : .311/.362/.405

and the real Ichiro

2009 : .352/.386/.465
2008 : .310/.361/.386
2007 : .351/.396/.431

They have Andy Tracy hitting .249 with 27 HR...the guy is a career Minor Leaguer.

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Originally Posted by skudplayr

They have Andy Tracy hitting .249 with 27 HR...the guy is a career Minor Leaguer.

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I already pointed that out :p

Good god aren't we a bit early with these projections??? Why not wait until players actually sign on with their new teams...won't the projections change if they have a new home ballpark??

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Originally Posted by KowboyKoop

Good god aren't we a bit early with these projections??? Why not wait until players actually sign on with their new teams...won't the projections change if they have a new home ballpark??

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Yes, though usually not by too much.

ZiPS projections are out already too.

Most of these projections will be updated when a player changes teams.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Yes, though usually not by too much.

ZiPS projections are out already too.

Most of these projections will be updated when a player changes teams.

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Sure, I understand things won't be drastically changed, I just don't understand the need to put them out so early when you need many of them will change...whatever though.

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Four Phillies - Eric Bruntlett, Tyler Walker, Andy Tracy, and Paul Hoover - were removed from the 40-man roster and became free agents today, according to Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

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The Phillies are idiots, looks like they won't reap the rewards of Andy Tracy ;)

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

I thought this was going to be a set of predictions about Chone Figgins.

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*smirk*

if albert draws that few walks, i will eat my hat as well.

When was the last year Ichiro had under 200 hits?

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Originally Posted by reflections

When was the last year Ichiro had under 200 hits?

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was this sarcastic?

They have Ryan Church in their Mets predictions.

Fail.

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Originally Posted by reflections

When was the last year Ichiro had under 200 hits?

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Probably when he turned 2 years old.

I love it that they are predicting no Rockie to hit .300 or better.

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Originally Posted by rockiesfan4ever

I love it that they are predicting no Rockie to hit .300 or better.

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Stop swinging. Let go.

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Originally Posted by rockiesfan4ever

I love it that they are predicting no Rockie to hit .300 or better.

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"They" aren't predicting anything. It's all pure mathematical formulas.

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Originally Posted by rockiesfan4ever

I love it that they are predicting no Rockie to hit .300 or better.

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No Rockies players will hit .300 this year. This is the Schu projection.
:p

It's also important to remember that projections are essentially the MEAN of a bunch of projections. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections (when they're out, which won't be until early 2010, usually) show the percentages at various percentiles - 10th percentile projection, 50th percentile, 90th percentile, etc. A projection like CHONE only shows the mean projection, but it still uses the same basic structure to arrive at that mean. Projections are heavily "regressed to the mean." They don't attempt to project which guys will overperform or underperform their actual talent level - because that is essentially a random event. It is expected that a good amount of players will outperform their projection and a good amount will underperform their projection.