2009 MLB Predictions

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

What I am saying about the offense is that they didn't just have 1 guy producing on offense... they had multiple this year.

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This year, they had 7 guys with 200+ plate appearances and an OPS+ of 100 or better, same as 2007. They didn't have the monstrous Carlos Pena season, but the offense was still spread around in both 2007 and 2008.

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Defense is probably the main reason for their amazing turnaround, but I also tend to believe that the pitching/all around attack on offense/and bullpen had a lot to do with it. I also believe that the bullpen had the 2nd most to do with their turnaround.

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What I don't think you're grasping is that the defense had a big role in the pitching/bullpen turnaround.

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Defense is overrated, though... I mean, maybe not in the case of the 2008 Tampa Rays, as they went from worst to first, but when it comes to the Yankees, having a very average, maybe slightly below average (due to Jeter and Posada - 2 crucial positions to have good defense at), I don't think defense is the main concern... staying healthy is.

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If you have the best offense in the league, no, you don't need a great defense.

Defense IS underrated, though. It's worth half as much as offense. Judging by the way you're talking about it, you'd think it was barely worth anything. The difference between the best and worst teams on defense is about 120 runs. That means the difference between an average defense and a top of the league defense is about 60 runs, or roughly 6 wins. Defense is VERY important for building an overall good team. Can you succeed with a bad defense? Absolutely, nobody's said otherwise. You can also succeed with a bad offense. It doesn't mean offense is "overrated."

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

This year, they had 7 guys with 200+ plate appearances and an OPS+ of 100 or better, same as 2007. They didn't have the monstrous Carlos Pena season, but the offense was still spread around in both 2007 and 2008.


What I don't think you're grasping is that the defense had a big role in the pitching/bullpen turnaround.


If you have the best offense in the league, no, you don't need a great defense.

Defense IS underrated, though. It's worth half as much as offense. Judging by the way you're talking about it, you'd think it was barely worth anything. The difference between the best and worst teams on defense is about 120 runs. That means the difference between an average defense and a top of the league defense is about 60 runs, or roughly 6 wins. Defense is VERY important for building an overall good team. Can you succeed with a bad defense? Absolutely, nobody's said otherwise. You can also succeed with a bad offense. It doesn't mean offense is "overrated."

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I know that the defense had a lot to do with the pitching, but they also go lucky that they found a bunch of guys that just happen to have career years. I seriously doubt that their bullpen will be nearly as good... You also have to have a good bullpen to help out your starting rotation, so thus I also believe that the starting pitching will be a little worse than last year's version (though, not regress too much, because they still have some major studs).

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

I know that the defense had a lot to do with the pitching, but they also go lucky that they found a bunch of guys that just happen to have career years. I seriously doubt that their bullpen will be nearly as good... You also have to have a good bullpen to help out your starting rotation, so thus I also believe that the starting pitching will be a little worse than last year's version (though, not regress too much, because they still have some major studs).

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I don't know why you're so quick to label a bunch of the Rays as having definitely had "career years." We don't know that.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I don't know why you're so quick to label a bunch of the Rays as having definitely had "career years." We don't know that.

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Yes we do... look at their bullpen. That is basically all I am talking about, is their bullpen (as far as career years).

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

Yes we do... look at their bullpen. That is basically all I am talking about, is their bullpen (as far as career years).

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J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour are the only two players you're talking about then. They likely won't repeat their insane ERA's, but they're both likely to still be very good relievers, and a decline by both of them can easily be offset by Troy Percival being a bit better, a solid season from Joe Nelson, an infusion of prospects like Wade Davis, etc.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour are the only two players you're talking about then. They likely won't repeat their insane ERA's, but they're both likely to still be very good relievers, and a decline by both of them can easily be offset by Troy Percival being a bit better, a solid season from Joe Nelson, an infusion of prospects like Wade Davis, etc.

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Troy Percival likely will decline... He used to be a very good closer a decade ago, becomes ineffective, basically retires, comes back and is a stud again? I don't see him lasting too much longer. Joe Nelson, is another journeyman... I don't see him being very good again. We'll see, though...

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

What I am saying about the offense is that they didn't just have 1 guy producing on offense... they had multiple this year. Defense is probably the main reason for their amazing turnaround, but I also tend to believe that the pitching/all around attack on offense/and bullpen had a lot to do with it. I also believe that the bullpen had the 2nd most to do with their turnaround.

Defense is overrated, though... I mean, maybe not in the case of the 2008 Tampa Rays, as they went from worst to first, but when it comes to the Yankees, having a very average, maybe slightly below average (due to Jeter and Posada - 2 crucial positions to have good defense at), I don't think defense is the main concern... staying healthy is.

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Houston cant persuade you on defense so I wont try. Just when your watching Rays vs Yanks this year pay attention to the balls hit that the Rays get to compared to the Yanks and you wont be thinking defense is so overrated anymore.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I don't know why you're so quick to label a bunch of the Rays as having definitely had "career years." We don't know that.

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Must be those pinstripe sunglasses.

Wow, dude, I think I have acknowledged that defense was a major part of the Rays turnaround last season... :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

Defense is so overrated. I mean, sure... having a good defense is always a good thing, but it definitely doesn't make or brake a team.

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I could not disagree more.

For example look at the team that has won the world series since 2000 each year, each time the team that won was one of the top 5 teams defensively in baseball. Defense can easily make or break a team...especially a good team. I don't care how good your staff is, you won't win clutch games without good defense. The solid reason why the Yankees keep crumbling in clutch situations, and they didn't even address a nagging issue this offseason, which is their terrible defense. They have great hitters, they have great pitchers, but other then Jeter, who seems to be slowing down a tiny bit, there is no one on that team that is going to be bringing in gold gloves, or even play top 5 defense....and that is where they will lose ball games in 09

Not only the Rays but the Rockies also had the best FIELDING PERCENTAGE EVER in 2007 and look at what they did.

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

They have great hitters, they have great pitchers, but other then Jeter, who seems to be slowing down a tiny bit, there is no one on that team that is going to be bringing in gold gloves, or even play top 5 defense....

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Jeter has been a poor defender, even while he won Gold Gloves. Jeter is one of the main reasons FOR their poor defense.

Gold Gloves might be the biggest joke in all of baseball and should never, ever, EVER be referenced when trying to talk about defense.

Swisher (when he's not playing CF), Tex, and ARod are all pretty good defenders. Damon isn't too shabby in left. Posada can be good if his health is back. I wouldn't say the Yankee defense is all that terrible.

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

What I am saying about the offense is that they didn't just have 1 guy producing on offense... they had multiple this year. Defense is probably the main reason for their amazing turnaround, but I also tend to believe that the pitching/all around attack on offense/and bullpen had a lot to do with it. I also believe that the bullpen had the 2nd most to do with their turnaround.

Defense is overrated, though... I mean, maybe not in the case of the 2008 Tampa Rays, as they went from worst to first, but when it comes to the Yankees, having a very average, maybe slightly below average (due to Jeter and Posada - 2 crucial positions to have good defense at), I don't think defense is the main concern... staying healthy is.

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

Wow, dude, I think I have acknowledged that defense was a major part of the Rays turnaround last season...

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:rolleyes: dont think you did, you still think defense is overrated