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Dave Cameron of FanGraphs is running a new segment, ranking the organizations, counting down from 30. See here for #30, the Washington Nationals. Right now only 30 and 29 (the Marlins) are up. Change the 30 in the URL to 29 for the Marlins, and when the new articles go up you can just change the number again to get to them.
I don't see how the Marlins can possibly be #29. I mean, Loria's method or actions may not be popular, but as far as the baseball team is concerned, they have had pretty good recent success, have plenty of good young talent and were a fairly decent team last year. As far as the team put on the field..they do a lot better job than most teams. I don't think bad ownership should completely ruin their grade/ranking..that seems pretty harsh. I mean...if you are talking about the state of the Marlins, I don't see what Loria "ruining" the Expos has to do with it.
I'd see the Marlins as closer to #15 or so than 29..that just seems too harsh.
Not really... Loria is an idiot...Quote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
I'd wait to read the rest of the overviews before making any strong judgments on them, but I do think that ownership should take a heavy toll on a ranking of Florida's overall outlook. I think the last sentence sums it up perfectly:
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The Marlins are getting a lot of stuff right, but the overriding direction of the organization is not towards winning, and that cripples the overall health of the organization.
He's not an idiot. He's just not a BASEBALL owner. He's a businessman, whose SOLE concern is padding his bank account and NOT building a winning baseball team (which would, ironically, probably do more to pad his bank account).Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsoxRockies
Yeah..they do seem to have a lot of good to say about the Marlins, I just don't agree that ownership should bring their grade down SOOOO much. I mean..in the end, it's about winning, and the Marlins have done a lot more of that than other organizations lately.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
But...ownership is holding them back from being better than just a .500 team that every once in a while nudges its way into a pennant race. That's why the grade is brought down so severely. If they had ownership that actually cared about winning, the Marlins, who have a great front office and player development system, would be perennial contenders.Quote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
But they're still better than a good number of MLB teams, which I think is what KK is saying. Yeh, they could be better, but so could most teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
They're long-term outlook, though, is pretty much right where they are right now, which is what I think this "organizational ranking" is trying to capture. They have no upside because in 3 years when all there good players are up for arbitration, they'll be dealt out of town, just to repeat the process, essentially in a loop of mediocrity.Quote:
Originally Posted by etothep
Going completely off the top of my head, I wouldn't have Florida 29th, if only because I'd put Houston there.
Well, it seems like the Marlins have been doing the same thing for a while now and have a couple World Series titles to show for it. The players may be in and out, but they keep rebuilding quickly and never seem to be that bad of a team...with a couple titles. I think their ownership prevents them from being a "good" organization, but no way are they one of the worst given their success.
Loria took over as owner right before 2002, so the 2003 World Series team was pretty much built up before he got there. Since that World Series, though, they've been essentially .500 year in and year out. Barring a change in Loria's methods (and judging by his destruction of Montreal, that's not happening any time soon), I think this is the peak of what the Marlins can do when being run like they currently are. With three very competent organizations in their division in New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, they'll have a very tough time breaking this streak of mediocrity without Loria changing his ways. I actually think Beinfest is the best GM in the division right now, but ownership severely hampers him and the team.
I don't think the Marlins should be that low either, but I don't see them as a #15. They're definitely not #29, though. Teams like Houston, Seattle and San Diego are in far worse positions, currently.
Loria may have had his 03 champion team built for him, but he doesn't run things *that* much differently than the way things were run before. I think Beinfest is a great GM, and among the best in the majors. The moves he's allowed to make are always great, and the scouting in that system appears to be top notch.
Granted, I don't know that much, but I'd put the Marlins around 23 or 24. Severely hampered by a cheap, shrewd owner with no baseball sense, but the rest of the organization is first class.
Houston and San Diego, I'd agree. Seattle, though, with Bavasi gone, things are brighter. Seattle's close to Florida, but I don't know if I'd put them worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe12Pack
pittsburgh is 29 for me
They are slowly getting better. Huntington is a great GM, though they do have awful ownership.Quote:
Originally Posted by etothep
i will be very suprised if the pirates are in contention for even a playoff spot in the next decade (which is saying something in the nl central)
Although I would personally put Florida higher, I can definitely see why they're at 29. Having one of the worst owners in baseball with a terrible budget isn't a winning formula.
I wouldn't be. Huntington actually has a plan. He's made large strides already and has been in power for just a year.Quote:
Originally Posted by etothep
So far:
#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
Again, going mostly off the top of my head...I'd put Florida ahead of Houston, Pittsburgh, and San Diego, and I'd put Kansas City ahead of Florida. I'm also wondering where the hell Seattle is.
I'm betting that Seattle's in, at least, the top 15. They're really not that bad of a team...Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Really? Because they just lost 101 games, and even going by their runs scored/allowed, were a 95-loss team. Bavasi left them in terrible shape. They have 2 or 3 excellent prospects but there's a major dropoff after that. Compared to the rest of the league, their farm system is nothing special (BA ranks them 24th). Their major league roster has the bloated contracts of Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima, and likely soon, Ichiro. They don't have much of a bullpen to speak of.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Owens
There's no way that the Mariners have a better outlook than the Cardinals. I'd put them ahead of Washington, Houston, and San Diego, in a virtual tie with Pittsburgh.
Ah, but see, that's where you're wrong. They have 3 or 4 very good players, Hernandez, Ichiro, Beltre and Bedard, a cheap bullpen that has the potential to be great, and some young players that could be superstars when they come up. Plus you have to factor in that they have one of the best GMs in baseball and an owner who'll basically give them as much money as they need.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Well in Seattle's defense they have a new GM who so far looks to know what he's doing (and since this rankings is going off future success that is probably really important), they have some pretty good prospects : Aumont, Truinfel, Halman, Saunders, Fields. They've also got an actual payroll and their bullpen, while not terribly great now has a lot of upside to it with guys like Cordero, Aaradsma, Fields (future), and you could throw Morrow in their (all those guys are first rounders if that means anything). The rest of the guy in the bullpen are pretty average. Seattle will likely have the best OF defense in baseball this next year in a pitchers park with some of the best pitchers in baseball in their 1-3 spots (although Morrow and Bedard will obviously have trouble staying off the DL and pitching more than 150 innings; in terms of talent though they've got it). They've also got a lot of guys who have the ability to be better than they are (Aaradsma, Clement, Balentien, Gut?(probably not but I'll list him), etc...).Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
So I don't think it's totally crazy that Seattle hasn't been listed yet especially when you take in to account how little they have to do to win the West (although I'm not sure if the rankings are taking that sort of thing in to account).
Ichiro is aging. He's not lasting forever. Beltre and Bedard are nearing the end of their contracts. This is a forward-looking exercise. What's the likelihood they both stay in Seattle? Furthermore, Bedard is a gigantic injury risk.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Owens
Potential to be respectable, maybe.Quote:
a cheap bullpen that has the potential to be great
Like I said, a couple prospects and then a major dropoff after them.Quote:
and some young players that could be superstars when they come up.
Woah now, I think we have to wait a little longer for heaping that amount of praise on him. I know that anybody would seem like a GM god when you've been stuck with Bavasi for a few years, but let's take it easy there.Quote:
Plus you have to factor in that they have one of the best GMs in baseball
Although Beltre and Bedard are coming to the ends of their contract, by no means does Seattle not have the money to lock them up again even with all the bad contracts they have (especially when Washburn comes off the books this year). I would pretty much just take the Beltre/Bedard leaving argument out since the only reason Seattle wouldn't keep them is if they don't want them. And if they both leave, then Seattle has a ton of money at their disposal to use elsewhere.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Or if they don't want to stay...Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
I don't want to burst the Mariner fans' bubble, but Seattle really is in a poor position. The only things they've got going for them right now are a change in management and fairly deep pockets.
They may have x amount of "very good players," but that sure didn't help them this past season, and it won't be helping them in the near future with an aging/departing Beltre and an aging Ichiro. Most of the rest of the roster seems like a coinflip to stay healthy and play well. I'd have them around 25.
Also, how is San Diego so high? Granted, they've got some pretty good young talent and nice prospects, but that franchise is an absolute joke. If the Nationals even HAD a front office at the moment and had more of a team than just 50 outfielders, I'd have San Diego and Houston tied for dead last. San Diego deserves to be relegated to the PCL.
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Originally Posted by etothep
I wouldn't be surprised either, and I agree completely. The moves this team made last season were great, and there's some good homegrown talent there. Plus, if they can build a solid core and start winning some games, they have the ability to rebuild their fan base and come upon some more money.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Their GM is already one of the best in baseball , huh? Yeah, that's reasonable....
The Mariners should be better...but they got a ways to go.
Well these rankings are based on now as opposed to looking at the past. Maybe with all the change in management and going in a new direction has helped their rank. Im wondering where Oakland will wind up, I say top 10 for sure.
I really wanted to argue that the Tigers were way better than 22 and that he's wrong for this reason or that reason, but, really, I can't. It's a pretty rock-solid ranking and analysis series so far.
I will say that I think he underrates the ability of the Detroit market to support the team. I know times are getting pretty bad in the state, but it's nothing new. Michigan's economy has been in the toilet the last 4 years, and they've still been moved to support a competitive product.
I also think that the minor leagues in particular have more talent than they get credit for, but I won't blame Dave Cameron for that, he's probably not able to do in-depth analysis beyond talking to scouts.
Right. Just in case anyone missed it:Quote:
Originally Posted by ragecage
"This is not a review of how teams have performed in the past. This is a forward looking exercise. You can disagree with the ratings all you want, but you should understand that we’re not retroactively grading how teams have done prior to 2009 - we’re talking about how well they are equipped to contend for a World Series title going forward."
His explanation of Detroit's ranking also reveals something: these rankings can be affected by things that have nothing directly to do with the team, which is a good point. The possibility that the city of Detroit may be more affected by economic downturn than other cities lowers the probability of the team being able to compete for a title in coming years.
Yeah, the "new direction" does help their rank...which is why I wouldn't put them quite on the same level as the dregs of Washington, Houston, and San Diego...but enough to vault them into the top 20, ahead of perennial contenders like the Cardinals? I don't think so.
But that the Cards have been "perennial contenders" in the past doesn't matter. He makes a valid point in his explanation of that ranking, that they don't have a lot of time left to build something around Pujols; his ranking of the team is because he doesn't expect them to pull that off.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
But he expects the Mariners to turn it around and have a better chance in the future than the Cardinals, despite not having the best player in baseball, and a worse overall major league team, and a worse farm system? Jack Z has got to be the second coming of Branch Rickey for that to work out.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayC
I just do not see how the Mariners have a brighter outlook than the Cardinals...at all. I don't think it's close.
Just curious what you guys' top 5 in the organizational rankings would be
I'll withhold judgment on that until I can read what he has to say about the Mariners.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Purely off the top of my head....Boston and Tampa Bay I'd say are 1-2 in some order. The Yankees and Mets are in the mix....and the Phillies.Quote:
Originally Posted by etothep
Yeah...I just can't imagine what could justify the Mariners being higher than the Cardinals.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayC
I will say this much: it's difficult for me to envision how a franchise could be hurt more by its owner than the Baltimore Orioles.
Florida. Angelos is definitely incredibly close to Loria in terms of hamstringing their franchise...but at least he's willing to pony up some cash for players.Quote:
Originally Posted by oriole^
[QUOTE=HoustonGM;1265970]Purely off the top of my head....Boston and Tampa Bay I'd say are 1-2 in some order. The Yankees and Mets are in the mix....and the Phillies.QUOTE]
Can't see the Rays at all even in the top 5.
Yankees/Red Sox are right up there, though I might would put the Sox #1 and the Yanks #2 with the Mets and Phillies right up there, as well as the Cubs.
The Rays have finished last like every season of their existance other than last year... They should be decent now... :rolleyes: