Dunn vs Howard

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03-09-2009, 04:17 PM
Jeffy25

Dunn vs Howard

I have never really understood why Howard is given so much more love over Adam Dunn.They seem to be similiar types of ball players, power left handers who strike out and hit the ball....hard! Granted, Howard has better hitters around him....but that is what I see as the essential difference. Dunn is 5 for 5 on 40 homer seasons in the last five seasons....I just want to know why in fantasy drafts etc Ryan Howard is a top ten pick, and Dunn is around a top 100.

We can breakdown things like defense, etc...but I overall see them as the same type of player.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dunnad01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/howarry01.shtml

I just want someone to make it very clear why Howard is so much more loved then Adam Dunn.
03-09-2009, 04:21 PM
200tang

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Well for fantasy purposes alone Howard would be the better choice because of his teammates like you said. Howard should have more RBI's, Runs and HR's than Dunn.
03-09-2009, 04:23 PM
HoustonGM

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Ryan Howard had a season that Dunn can't come close to (2006). That's part of the reason. Another reason is that Howard is more friendly to the media and is more charismatic. Another is because Howard racks up HR and RBI, which Dunn doesn't do, and yes, that's a function of his team for RBI, but the mainstream media doesn't care to make that distinction.

Going forward, I think Howard and Dunn will produce very similar numbers. In 2008, they did. Dunn was better....yet Howard placed 2nd in the MVP race. Prior to 2008, Howard has been better. Plus, he's had a higher batting average, while Dunn's been consistently low there.

It's all a matter of the ancient analysis that the mainstream media is still stuck in. Also, for fantasy, Howard IS the more valuable player, because he does rack up those HR and RBI. Fantasy is very "distant" from real baseball player evaluation.
03-09-2009, 04:25 PM
etothep

Re: Dunn vs Howard

If you mean solely fantasy-wise, it's b/c you'll get about 15-25 more runs, 35-40 more rbis, 5 or so more HRs, not to mention that his move from cincy to washington will only hurt his value & there is usually an abundance of OFs available (including a few good waiver pickups each year in the OF), hence why I rarely go with an OF in the first or second round
03-09-2009, 04:25 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonGM

It's all a matter of the ancient analysis that the mainstream media is still stuck in. Also, for fantasy, Howard IS the more valuable player, because he does rack up those HR and RBI. Fantasy is very "distant" from real baseball player evaluation.

I agree, in fact, I tried a fantasy thing once and it totally turned me off and I haven't done it since. That said, I would almost rather have Dunn over Howard, especially because that opens first base up for someone else. But having Dunn's .250 average is never fun, and Howard is a career hitter better, but I see them as very similar.
03-09-2009, 04:27 PM
HoustonGM

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Howard and Dunn actually score a similar amount of runs. Howard's been 104-94-105. Prior to last year when he scored just 79, Dunn was a consistent 100 run man - 105-107-99-101. It's really ALL in the 5-10 extra home runs and 35-40 RBI.
03-09-2009, 04:28 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Dunn vs Howard

well i think 15-25 homers is an exageration. Hell in the last two seasons, Howard has only hit 7 and 8 more in each season. I just think Dunn doesn't get enough love, I do love Howard personally though. In fact one of my best buddies played high school baseball with him, same team. Says Howard is the exact same size and could hit a ball just as hard then as now. He is from stl, which you gotta give him love for that too ;) he and Yogi both.
03-09-2009, 04:29 PM
200tang

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

But having Dunn's .250 average is never fun, and Howard is a career hitter better, but I see them as very similar.

Howard probably won't hit much above .260 ever again with the now famous shift teams use.
03-09-2009, 04:30 PM
etothep

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

well i think 15-25 homers is an exageration.

runs =/= home runs
03-09-2009, 04:30 PM
Wassit3

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

well i think 15-25 homers is an exageration. Hell in the last two seasons, Howard has only hit 7 and 8 more in each season. I just think Dunn doesn't get enough love, I do love Howard personally though. In fact one of my best buddies played high school baseball with him, same team. Says Howard is the exact same size and could hit a ball just as hard then as now. He is from stl, which you gotta give him love for that too ;) he and Yogi both.

who said 15-25 more homers???:confused:
03-09-2009, 04:30 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Howard and Dunn actually score a similar amount of runs. Howard's been 104-94-105. Prior to last year when he scored just 79, Dunn was a consistent 100 run man - 105-107-99-101. It's really ALL in the 5-10 extra home runs and 35-40 RBI.

And Howard is getting better pitchers to hit, with guys like Rollins, Utley around him, how could he not? Dunn has never really had much protection, other then a hurt Griffey. and he won't get much more in Washington. I think Dunn could put up similiar numbers if traded for Howard and placed in the Phi lineup.
03-09-2009, 04:31 PM
etothep

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

And Howard is getting better pitchers to hit, with guys like Rollins, Utley around him, how could he not? Dunn has never really had much protection, other then a hurt Griffey. and he won't get much more in Washington. I think Dunn could put up similiar numbers if traded for Howard and placed in the Phi lineup.

paging pavelb
03-09-2009, 04:31 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wassit3

who said 15-25 more homers???:confused:

ethotep
03-09-2009, 04:31 PM
Wassit3

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

And Howard is getting better pitchers to hit, with guys like Rollins, Utley around him, how could he not? Dunn has never really had much protection, other then a hurt Griffey. and he won't get much more in Washington. I think Dunn could put up similiar numbers if traded for Howard and placed in the Phi lineup.

protection:p
03-09-2009, 04:32 PM
etothep

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

ethotep

see:

Quote:

Originally Posted by etothep

runs =/= home runs
03-09-2009, 04:32 PM
Wassit3

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

ethotep

he said runs...
03-09-2009, 04:35 PM
Jeffy25

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wassit3

he said runs...

so he did :o I apoligize ethothep. I owe you one....but back to topic. I don't think Howard deserves to be number two in MVP voting, when Dunn, who granted is a similar player with lower numbers overall, should be getting such low votes.

It's not like Dunn wasn't helping Arizona get to the playoffs, which they didn't, but none the less. I think Dunn deserves a little more credit...and if he can keep hitting 40 each year, he will end up with some awesome career numbers.
03-09-2009, 06:19 PM
HoustonGM

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by 200tang

Howard probably won't hit much above .260 ever again with the now famous shift teams use.

Also because the year he hit .313 he had historically ridiculous on-contact numbers that are unsustainable by all but the absolute best players in history (ie. Babe Ruth).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffy25

And Howard is getting better pitchers to hit, with guys like Rollins, Utley around him, how could he not? Dunn has never really had much protection, other then a hurt Griffey. and he won't get much more in Washington. I think Dunn could put up similiar numbers if traded for Howard and placed in the Phi lineup.

Blah, "protection" only has a meaningful affect on walk rate.

Dunn deserves a lot more credit than he gets (and Howard a lot less), but them's the brakes when the mainstream media couldn't be bothered to even perform rudimentary player analysis.
03-09-2009, 06:36 PM
etothep

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Dunn deserves a lot more credit than he gets (and Howard a lot less), but them's the brakes when the mainstream media couldn't be bothered to even perform rudimentary player analysis.

I think the market could be having an affect as well. If Dunn were playing for a team that was either in the playoff hunt every year (like Howard) or on a larger market team (like Howard) he would get more attention.
03-09-2009, 07:24 PM
dps

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Uh, we had this thread back in 2007.* Part of what I posted at the time was, "Howard has been at least as good as people thought he was going to be, and probably in fact a good bit better than people thought he would be, while Dunn hasn't been as good as people thought he would be." I still think that's a big part of it--Howard has exceeded expectations, while Dunn hasn't quite lived up to expectations that were too high to start with.

*I would have sworn that it was during last season that we had this discussion before, but I had to search for the thread, and it was in September 2007. That thread is here, if anyone is interested: http://www.sportsmogul.com/vbulletin...st872949"http:.
03-09-2009, 07:46 PM
HoustonGM

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Hm.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoustonGM

People should realize that the only reason Howard is extremely cheap is because he's been playing less. Give Howard two more years, and assuming he still is playing about his current level, he'll be making tons more than Adam Dunn. Than what?

Ryan Howard: $18 million, has performed worse than he was at the time I wrote that
Adam Dunn: $10 million, the same player he's always been.
03-09-2009, 07:51 PM
BINGLEBOP

Re: Dunn vs Howard

Wow, you're psychic.

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