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I like to place over/under bets on wins for some teams. I at first thought the AL East would have 3 90 plus wins teams. Now I'm not so sure because the Yanks, Sox and Rays have to play each other so much. How many wins will it take to win the division, and for the same reason of playing each other, do you think the wild card can come out of that division? Move any of those 3 teams to another division and I think they win 95-97. now I think 91 -93 at best will do it. Your thoughts?
Eh, 95, because they do have the Jays, O's, and other weak teams out of the divison to beat on.
lol "can" the WC come out of this division? It's almost certain the wild card will.Quote:
Originally Posted by acetoolguy
Here are the CHONE projections that just came out today btw.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2009standings.htm
PECOTA agrees with CHONE on the AL East, for the most part. I'm wondering how CHONE has the Padres at a near-.500 team and 2nd place though...The Padres, I think, are virtually guaranteed last place this year.
Think again. It nearly happened in 2008. The Yankees were one win shy of 90. It kind of got lost in the shuffle of "OMG The Yankees didn't make the playoffs!" but the AL East had 4 teams with 86+ wins in 2008. Now, one of those teams, the Blue Jays, lost their second best pitcher to the Yankees, and haven't done much of anything to upgrade...I think it's very likely that the AL East has 3 90 win teams in 2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by acetoolguy
yeah, i did over think the wild card.
How can a team have a 1/2? And the Cubs are in the NL.Quote:
Originally Posted by acetoolguy
Its going to come down to Boston and Tampa, I think 95 wins can guarantee the East because there is just so much weakness outside that division anyway. Anaheim isnt going to win nearly as many games and that AL Central is especially weak.
Also here's an article on how the CHONE projection does its thing.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ted-standings/
And it was an old over/under.......so its gone.
FYI the 1/2 eliminates a tie on the bet. It has a more profound effect on an NFL season.
Pats at 11 1/2 for example. If you want the over you need them to win 12, or only 11 if you pick the under.
The other thing to always remember about any Vegas number is that it is NOT how many games they expect the team to win nor by how many. Its the number that gets 50% of the bettors to pick one team and 50% to pick the other. Thus ensuring they make money no matter who wins.
Oh, I thought you meant a projection system. nevermind.
Wow, PECOTA and CHONES vary quite a bit in the NL West. My question: Why do they see the Braves doing so well? I love them, but I don't see the NL East being THAT close...
The Braves have arguably the best rotation in the division.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsoxRockies
PECOTA and CHONE both picked the Rockies to have losing records.
And so we wait another 12 years for a playoff berth...
CHONE has them within 4, though!Quote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
I was also wondering how the Braves got so high..
And HGM, I don't see how you can argue against the Marlins having the best rotation in their division
I also thought the Mets would win the east by 4-5 games with their new additions. I'm a big Mets fan and you're usually extremely pessimistic about your own team, but I can't help but feel that they're going to run away with the division with their new bullpen. They were extremely close to doing it the past two years, and you can't expect them to collapse yet again.
..i think
Is that a joke? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by NYDodgers
....The Marlins? We're thinking of the same Marlins right?Quote:
Originally Posted by NYDodgers
Ricky Nolasco> Derek Lowe? :p?
Wow, you guys responded even before I could edit.
Sorry, got a little mixed up. Read an article before about their pitching prospects and got a little carried away and worried for the Mets.
Well, Ricky Nolasco very well be better than Derek Lowe...He very well might be better than any starter in the division not named Johan or Cole...Quote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
True, possibly not the best example. But nonetheless...Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM