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NBA Chalk Talk
Andy Mease
NBA Beat Writer
View From the Sideline
The NBA is a game I've gotten interested in recently. Not sure why, not sure how. I am an avid basketball follower, especially the college game, and high school game. It's been an interesting, yet predictable year in the NBA so far. The Cavs, Celtics, Magin, Lakers, Hornets, and Nuggets are all championship contenders. LeBron, Kobe, Dwight, Dwayne, Kevin, and Chris are once again MVP candidates, and I know that you can figure out each of their last names.
The only team to have a legitimate claim as to coming out of nowhere this year could be Portland, but you could see that brewing the minute they selected Greg Oden 1st overall in the 2007 NBA draft. Even teams that were poor last year like the Heat, Sixers, and perhaps the Hawks, you could see as playoff contenders. The Heat had injury issues last year and got Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers in the draft. The Sixers signed a big man, that was key for them to team him up with Iguodala. The Hawks, well they nearly upset the Celtics last year in round 1 and are continuing to play well as a team.
If you look at the NHL, and NFL, and to a point MLB, you will see some sort of parity. Multiple teams each year fighting and clawing their way from the bottom into the postseason. The Washington Capitals in 07-08, the Miami Dolphins in 08, the Tampa Bay Rays in 08. Need more examples? How bout the Chicago Blackhawks of 08-09, the Atlanta Falcons in 08, the Chicago White Sox in 08. Last years NBA playoffs really didn't feature any surprises, except maybe the Atlanta Hawks, but they were in the weak Eastern Conference and didn't even finish at .500 and made the playoffs.
Even with a salary cap the NBA can't seem to find parity. Why is that? One big reason, is the NBA draft lottery. Typically it's in place to help prevent tanking, but a majority of the time that legit 20 win team doesn't end up with a top 2 pick. Instead you see teams from the #4, 5, 6, and maybe even 7 slots swoop down and end up with the #1 pick. 2008 draft, who needed Derrick Rose more, Seattle/Oklahoma City or Chicago? Yeah, Miami had the worst record but that was partially because they had a 50% Dwayne Wade, when he was playing. Did Miami really need Michael Beasley? Or would the Knicks, Grizzlies, T'Wolves benefit more from him? The bad thing is that it'll happen again this year, and next year, and the following year. A playoff team that stumbles out of the stretch will pack away the season in early Februrary, end up with the 3rd or 4th worst record and end up with the #1 overall pick.
Let's take a look at a few of these teams that will, most likely, in the end steal the top picks from the truly terrible teams. Washington Wizards 7-31. Some people may say this is a bad team, but I won't. This team has been to the post season 4 consecutive years. The only reason they are struggling this year is because they do not have Gilbert Arenas. Reminds me in a way of the year where San Antonio was without David Robinson and ended up getting Tim Duncan. Next years Wizards team without a top lottery pick could finish with at least 45 wins, but add in a potential #1 overall pick due to a superstars injury and you could very well see a 50+ win team. Imagine adding a Blake Griffin, Ty Lawson, Hasheem Thabeet to this team that already has Antwan Jamison, Caron Butler, and Agent Zero himself.
Toronto Raptors, 17-24. Yeah, they aren't in the bottom 5 or so teams, but they still have a chance to get that pick. This is another team that SHOULD NOT be struggling. They have Chris Bosh, Jermaine O'Neal, Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani. This team could very well end up with Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry, Ricky Rubio or another one of the fantastic guards in this draft. This team has had a few injury problems, but they do not NEED a #1 pick. If they don't win 7 or 8 of their next 10 games, this team will pack it in and hope they land that coveted #1 overall pick.
Here are a few teams that legitimately NEED a top 2 pick. Memphis Grizzlies. This team severely lacks intensity in the paint and could benefit Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, among others. Indiana Pacers. This team has been in trouble since the "Brawl at the Palace" and really could use a game changing NBA caliber player in the draft. Ty Lawson, Blake Griffin, or even Stephen Curry would do wonders for that team. Oklahoma City. Outside of Kevin Durant and a few recent picks this team is bare, especially down low. Blake Griffin anyone? Minnesota Timberwolves. The lack of a consistent outside threat when Miller's been injured has hurt this team. Stephen Curry would be great here, and considering the emergence of Randy Foye and his versatility the possibilities for this team in the draft are endless. Last but not least, and I'm sure there are others, the Sacramento Kings. Does this team really outside of Kevin Martin have any type of future? This team could be dangerous if they give Martin a good power forward to play with. Blake Griffin would be ideal here.
The NBA's lack of parity is strongly due to the draft lottery. In recent years teams that were lower than 5th place have received lottery picks. Since the 1997 lottery the NBA's worst regular season team has gotten the #1 pick ONLY twice. (LeBron James and Dwight Howard) Winners have come from the #9 slot (2008 Bulls), #6 slot (2007 Blazers), #5 slot (2006 Raptors), #6 slot (2005 Bucks), and #7 slot (2000 Nets). The players selected in those spots were Derrick Rose, Greg Oden, Andrea Bargnani, Andrew Bogut, and Kenyon Martin.
What would the NBA look like today with Derrick Rose on the Thunder, Oden on the Grizzlies, Bargnani on the the Blazers, Bogut on the Hawks, and Kenyon Martin on the Clippers. The Blazers would still be terrible. Bargnani instead of Brandon Roy, and Yi Jianilin instead of Greg Oden. One way to fix it is to simply take the bottom 3 teams in the standings and draw the lottery from those 3 teams, and have the remaining non-playoff teams in a secondary lottery to determine the other slots. A team that was the 9th worst last year DOES NOT IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM deserve a #1 overall pick.
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