Let me know if I'm forgetting anybody (all-time rankings)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

3,548.3 innings at a 114 ERA+ for Reuschel, to 3,486.3 innings at the same ERA+ for Tiant. ERA+ though doesn't account for Reuschel playing in front of mediocre or worse defenses for most of his career. 3.82 defense-independent ERA for Reuschel to Tiant's 3.94.

Their WARP3's are basically identical: Reuschel's best 3 years were 29.5, basically equivalent to Tiant's 29.2. Tiant's slightly ahead on best 5 years, 45.8 to 44.3, and 7 years, 59.2 to 58.2. Career, Reuschel has a very slight edge 101.2 to 100.6.

Reuschel threw more innings compared to his contemporaries than Tiant did (3 top 10 finishes for Tiant - 6, 7, 8...6 for Reuschel - 4, 7, 7, 7, 8, 9)...Reuschel was the superior fielder.

They're really interchangeable in my opinion. They're going to be next to each other on my HoM ballot.

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OK. I dont have a lot of confidence in WARP, so I use different metrics. I do not recall having ever seen anyone rank Reuschel over Tiant in the past, so that caught my eye. I did take a closer look at each player. I do see that Reuschel is closer to Tiant than I would have previously imagined.

One thing I immediately noticed is that there are a lot of similarities between the two careers. Not just in career numbers either. Ok, here's a partial list....

Both pitchers threw right handed (batted right as well), of course, and both were fairly ...hefty...especially towards the end of their careers. Reuschel was a bigger man, overall, though.

Each man pitched in 19 years in the major leagues. Reuschel had an older brother (Paul) who pitched in MLB, while Tiant's father (Luis Sr.) pitched in Cuba and in the negro leagues (and was considered to be one helluva pitcher). Both pitched in 3 all-star games.

Both Tiant and Reuschel suffered shoulder problems in mid-career, and both were considered as washed up, yet rebounded after a few down years to come back and have great seasons.

Tiant pitched mainly in the AL, except for just 9 games with Pittsburgh. Reuschel pitched in the NL, except for only 12 games with the Yankees.

Both made their MLB debut on the 19'th....Tiant on July 19, 1964, and Reuschel on June 19, 1972. Tiant started against league champ New York, and threw a 4 hit shutout, striking out 11. Tiant next started on July 24, 1964 and won 6-1 against Boston, pitching another complete game. (As it so happens, July 24, 1964, was the day that one Barry Lamar Bonds entered the world.) Reuschel made his debut against the Giants in 1972, and faced only one batter. That batter was Bobby Bonds, father of Barry. Reuschel struck him out. (Ok, I know the Bonds thing is a bit of a stretch, but still...)Reuschel got his first win the next day, with 6 innings of relief pitching. He struck Bonds out again.

Each won 10 games in their rookie years. Tiant started 16 games, threw 127 innings and 3 shutouts, and had an ERA of 2.83, with an ERA+ of 127. Reuschel started 18 games, threw 129 innings and 4 shutouts, and had an ERA of 2.93, with an ERA+ of 130.

Tiant had his "breakout" season at age 27, when he went 21-9 with a league leading 1.60 ERA in 1968. Reuschel had his breakout season at age 28 in 1977, when he went 20-10 with the Cubs.

Tiant began having arm trouble and, following a 62 win season, the Indians traded him to Minnesota. The Twins released Tiant 2 years later, in 1971, due to his arm problems. Reuschel was traded by the Cubs to the Yankees in 1981, following a 64 win season. The Yankees released Reuschel 2 years later, in 1983, due to arm problems.

Tiant signed with the Braves, struggled in the minor leagues, and was released again a month later. After missing a full season following shoulder surgery, Reuschel signed again with the Cubs, was ineffective in parts of 2 seasons, and was released again.

Tiant was picked up by Boston, where he eventually bounced back (after 3 bad years) and had several good years. Reuschel signed with the Pirates, and later pitched for the Giants, and he also bounced back (after 3 down years) and pitched well.

It seems likely that the lack of HOF consideration for both is at least partly due to their injury problems. In the 3 years 1969-1971, Tiant was 17-30 with 3 teams. Reuschel went 6-6 from 1982-1984.


Ok, thats enough of that. Just thought it was interesting.

Career stats are similar to a point as well. Tiant pitched in 573 games, including 484, starts and threw 3486 innings. Reuschel pitched in 557 games, including 529 starts, and threw 3548 innings....or about 60 more than Tiant.

Tiant went 229-172 (.571%) with a 3.30 ERA. Reuschel went 214-191 (.528%) with a 3.37 ERA. Both had an ERA+ of 114, as was previously noted.

I should add that there is no question that Tiant played for better teams. Tiant pitched for only one truly awful team...that being the 1969 Indians. Reuschel for teams that won 57, 64, 64, and 66 games.

The players had about a 10 year overlap in their careers...1972-1981. Reuschel didn't have to face the DH, which was an advantage, but Tiant caught the last 5 years of the deadball II era (1964-1968), which gave him an advantage. That is, roughly speaking, why their ERA's balance out after the adjustments are made.

Tiant completed more games, 187-102, and threw many more shutouts, 49-26. In fairness, I would have to say that these stats are a product of their times. Pitchers completed a lot more starts in the '60's and 70's than they have since, as most already know.

Tiant won 20 games four times, Reuschel only once. If you like wins/losses, Tiant's winningest years (at least 15 wins) ; 22-13, 21-9, 21-12, 20-13, 18-14, 15-6. Reuschel; 20-10, 19-11, 18-12, 17-8. Tiant won between 10-14 games an additional 7 times, Reuschel 8 times.

While it seems that Tiant has an advantage with these stats, a good case can be made that Reuschel was simply handicapped by playing for weaker teams. At the very least, it can be suggested that, as HGM has noted, Reuschel is at least Tiants equal.

After a careful review of each career, I still place Tiant above Reuschel for both career and peak value. I will list the reasons in the next post.

Tiant vs Reuschel. The case for Tiant.

1) Innings pitched has been cited previously. Reuschel threw about 60 more career innings over 19 years, or about 3 innings a year, on average. Reuschel ranked a little higher on the "leaderboards", for innings pitched, in his best seasons. All true. Reuschels career high in innings pitched was 260. Tiants highest were 311, 279, 272, and 260. Three years of more innings than Reuschels best, and one that equals it.

Reuschel did throw 200 plus innings in 12 seasons, and had another year with 194. Tiant had 8 years of 200+ innings, with additional totals of 196, 195, 188 and 179. One major difference between the two is that Reuschel was always primarily a starting pitcher, while Tiant spent 3 years where he mainly pitched from the bullpen. Of course, it is what it is, so... Small Advantage-Reuschel.

2) Speaking of the leaderboard, lets look at other stats. Tiant made the Top 10 in the league in ERA 4 times, and finished first twice. Reuschel made the board 3 times, with 4'th being his best.

WHIP- Tiant 5 times in Top 10, best was first once. Reuschel twice in Top 10, first once.

Hits allowed per 9 innings- Tiant, 6 times on the board, first once. Reuschel twice, best was 7'th.

K's per 9- Tiant placed 5 times, first once. Reuschel once on the board, 9'th place.

K's- Tiant, 5 times, highest was 3'rd. Reuschel 5 times, 8'th was his best.

Complete Games- Tiant 6, best #2. Reuschel 3, first once.

Shutouts- Tiant 7, first THREE times. Reuschel 5, first once.

K/walks- Tiant 8, best was 3'rd. Reuschel 5, best was 4'th.

ERA- Tiant 4, twice led the league. Reuschel 3, best was 4'th.

ERA+ - Tiant 7, led the league twice. Reuschel 5, finished second once.

Tiant dominates the leaderboard, so...Advantage, Tiant.

3) Peak value. By a combination of ERA+ and traditional stats, Tiant's best years were 1968 (21-9, 1.60, 186 ERA+), 1972 (15-6, 1.91, 170), 1974 (22-13, 2.92, 133) and 1976 (21-12, 3.06, 129).

Reuschel's best; 1977 (20-10, 2.79, 157), 1985 (14-8, 2.27, 158), 1973 (14-15, 3.00, 131), and 1987 (13-9, 3.09, 131).

Tiant led the league twice in ERA with 1.60 and 1.91. Reuschel never led the league, and finished 4'th twice.

Win Shares gives Tiant 29, 28, 22 and 21 WS for those years. Reuschel's best seasons garner 26, 20, 20 and 19 WS. Tiant had 2 years better than Reuschels best. However you choose to calculate peak....best year, best 2 years, best 3...or 5...or 10 years...Tiant was better. Advantage, Tiant.

4) Career stats. As established, Reuschel pitched 62 more innings. Both were around 3500 IP's. In those innings, Tiant walked 169 more batters, but allowed 513 less hits. In 3500 innings, what do you think will do more damage...169 walks, or 513 hits? Yeah.

Tiant struck out 401 more hitters than Reuschel did. Tiant had a better WHIP, 1.199 to 1.275.

Here are some "bad stats" in which Tiant clobbers Reuschel. Reuschel hit more batters than Tiant, 88-49. Reuschel threw WAY more wild pitches, 89-27. Reuschel balked more, 10-4. All these numbers had to contribute to Reuschel losing more games.

Meanwhile, we established that Reuschel allegedly equaled Tiant in ERA+, at 114 each. Thats true, but ERA+ is based purely on ERA itself, which is a flawed stat. Good, but flawed. Reuschel allowed 50 more unearned runs than did Tiant. Some will claim that that wasn't Reuschels fault, but sabermetric studies would disagree, at least to a point.

So, while we have ERA; Tiant 3.30 and Reuschel 3.37, if we simply calculate runs allowed per game its Tiant 3.61 and Reuschel 3.79. Enough of a difference to give Tiant an edge here as well.

Now, some will lament that Reuschel had worse defenses behind him. I will not attempt to try to disprove that right now because A) It will take a lot more time, and B) I dont know if I can anyway. I will say this though. I dont know about overall defense, but in about the same number of innings pitched Reuschel's defense turned 320 double plays behind him. Tiant got only 203 DP's from his defense. This is the GIDP now, grounded into double plays. Thats a HUGE difference, and gives Tiant yet another edge.

If you neutralize the career stats (according to BR) for both, Tiant is 222-158 (.584%), with a 3.43 ERA, and Reuschel is 225-168 (.573%), 3.47. Close again, but Tiant is better.

Summing up these numbers, its Advantage, Tiant.

5) Win Shares gives Tiant the edge, by 256-240. In his last Historical Abstract, Bill James ranks Tiant as pitcher #52, and Reuschel #81. Advantage, Tiant.

6) Clutch and miscellaneous. For their careers, here's BA/OBP/SLG/OPS allowed:

Tiant.... .236 .297 .372 .668
Reuschel .264 .313 .372 .686

Tiant appears to be better again, but look at the performance in late innings of close games:

Tiant......238 .292 .365 .657
Reuschel .271 .322 .371 .693

Tiant faced 1982 batters in this situation, and actually pitched a little better in the clutch. Reuschel faced 1705 hitters and pitched a little worse than normal. Not a huge gap, but still there.

At this point, I believe that Tiant is clearly ahead. Lets say that its still even. I would submit the following as a tiebreaker: Tiant was a better big game pitcher.

In addition to the clutch stats above,here are the September/October stats for each:

Tiant ...52-25 2.74
Reuschel 33-41 3.66

September (with a handful of Oct games) was Tiant's best career month. It was arguably Reuschel's worst.

In addition, in the postseason, Tiant started 4 games, went 3-0, 2.86 with a shutout. Reuschel started 7 games, and was 1-4, 5.85.

Tiant, when pitching for Boston, was especially good at the end of the year. The Sox were in the division race nearly every year from 1972 through 1978. Counting postseason games, Luis Tiant, in Sep/Oct, started 50 games, won 31, lost 12, with a 2.46 ERA and 10 shutouts.

Reuschel, due mainly to being on bad teams, could be considered as having been in, well, maybe 4 division races. 1981, 1984, 1987, 1989. In these 4 years, in Sep/Oct, Reuschel started 26 games, won 10, lost 11, with a 4.12 ERA and 1 shutout.

Advantage-Tiant.

Ok, to sum it all up, by any measure that I can use, Tiant was a better pitcher than Reuschel. Maybe not a big difference, but still better. Thanks for reading.

Advantage-Tiant.

Thanks for that. I haven't gotten a chance to read it yet but I will later on. The two are certainly close enough in my opinion that my mind could be swayed. As I mentioned, I've flip-flopped them myself a couple times.

Rankings of pre-1893 pitchers, with short comments:


Prelim with comments:

1) John Clarkson - Easily the best of the bunch to me. Phenomenal peak.
2) Tim Keefe - Not quite the peak of Clarkson, but a long career with barely any poor seasons. Slight discount for his AA years but I still feel he's ahead of the others.
3) Al Spalding - Some credit for his pre-NA years. Phenomenal peak, but little else. His bat helps him stay above Radbourn.
4) Charley Radbourn - His 1884 is a sight to behold even if it's not quite as good as it would appear at first glance. Keefe, Spalding, Radbourn and Caruthers are a tightly knit group.
5) Bob Caruthers - Short but outstanding peak. Love the two-way player aspect of him, awesome bat for two years and very good the rest combined with very good pitching. Small discount for the AA.
6) Pud Galvin - Very long career, but not much of a peak and a couple low valleys pushes him down for me. Still a solid HoMer.