Indians sign Pavano

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Originally Posted by Swampdog

That isnt the discussion though. This is the statement that I disagree with:

Those look like about $1.5 million worth of piching to me if he can make 25 to 30 starts and sustain those number...this might not be that bad of a deal

Now, one last time. A pitcher who starts 30 games with an ERA+ of 77 is not helping his team. He is hurting his team. No GM would intentionally pay a guy 7 million to put up these numbers. Actually, they would not pay him 1 million to put up these numbers. The only value this type of pitcher has is that of a mop-up type....pitching here and there in long/mid relief in games already decided. This guy does not help a team making 30 starts.

Of course, if Pavano pitches that poorly (77 ERA+), he surely won't make 30 starts. Thats the gamble the Indians are taking. A relatively small investment, hoping that he performs better, and if he does, then they would be quite willing to pay more for better production.

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and again as the breif chart I put up shows for 25 to 30 starts a year at an ERA+ of 77 GM WOULD pay 1.5 mill per year and many pay MORE, which is why I included the number of starts in the chart

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

and again as the breif chart I put up shows for 25 to 30 starts a year at an ERA+ of 77 GM WOULD pay 1.5 mill per year and many pay MORE, which is why I included the number of starts in the chart

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But Pavano would make up to $5.3 million more, based on starts from 18-35 and innings from 130-235, so it would be a lot more than $1.5 million.

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

and again as the breif chart I put up shows for 25 to 30 starts a year at an ERA+ of 77 GM WOULD pay 1.5 mill per year and many pay MORE, which is why I included the number of starts in the chart

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Most GMs don't do it out of choice. Most of the time, they expect far better and then play the guys anyway because they're already paying them. Most GMs, if you told them they could bring in an FA to put up a 77 ERA + in 30 starts, would not bring in that FA for any money. Plus, as already mentioned, if he makes 30 starts, he won't be making 1.5 mil. He'll be making 7 mil.

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Originally Posted by BINGLEBOP

But Pavano would make up to $5.3 million more, based on starts from 18-35 and innings from 130-235, so it would be a lot more than $1.5 million.

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which is, again looking at the chart I put up, about right for a pitcher with an ERA+ of 77, it's less than Silva and about what Jennings makes...

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

which is, again looking at the chart I put up, about right for a pitcher with an ERA+ of 77, it's less than Silva and about what Jennings makes...

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It's not right. Silva and Jennings were colossally bad signings. I don't think the Indians went into this going "I really hope I can make a colossally bad signing here"

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

which is, again looking at the chart I put up, about right for a pitcher with an ERA+ of 77, it's less than Silva and about what Jennings makes...

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Mistake contracts or those that are bad in hindsight don't set the standard. The standard free market price for one win above replacement is about $4.5 million per win. A 77 ERA+ is about replacement level, or slightly worse.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

It's not right. Silva and Jennings were colossally bad signings. I don't think the Indians went into this going "I really hope I can make a colossally bad signing here"

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but they DID make the signing none the less and it is the performance that they are paying for *shrug* whether or not they should have is beside the point

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

but they DID make the signing none the less and it is the performance that they are paying for *shrug* whether or not they should have is beside the point

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They don't make the signing expecting to get that near/sub-replacement level performance. They made the signing expecting to get something better (probably league-average or slightly above pitching). That (what they were expecting) is what they paid for. What they wound up paying for isn't what sets the standard.

If Bill Bavasi had a crystal ball and knew that Carlos Silva would pitch so terrible this year, not even he would've paid him $48 million over 4 years. And if the Indians knew that Carl Pavano would perform the same as he did last year, except over more starts, they wouldn't have signed him to the contract they did. They're expecting better than that.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Carmona isn't a strikeout pitcher, so I don't think his K/BB ratio really means a lot. And I really don't think Lee is going to be significantly worse. He's not Esteban Loaiza. Sowers isn't very good but Laffey has some decent upside as well. They still have to be considered a contender in the AL Central as long as the bullpen holds up.

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Well, Carmona doesn't need as good of a K/BB ratio as others due to succeed, but 70 walks compared to 58 strikeouts in 120 innings is just abysmal. That simply won't cut it and he'll be out of baseball in three years if he keeps that up. I don't think he'll be that bad next year, but he's obviously a huge question mark...I'd predict around a 5.00 ERA for him next year. Servicable..but not very good.

I don't think Lee will regress to being a bad pitcher or anything, but he didn't just go from average pitcher to top 3 pitcher in the game in one year at 29 years old. He'll be good, I'd put him at a 3.60 ERA type pitcher. Pretty good, not elite.

Other pitchers may have potential, but they are all question marks and put up mediocre-to-awful numbers last year. As of right now, the only reason I can see to call the Indians contenders is b/c of the weakness of the division. I think the Twins are the favorites, the ChiSox close....and the Indians and Royals a step behind those two...I think Cleveland and KC would have to have a lot of things to right for them to win the division, I think both are about .500 teams.. I think the Tigers are the only team that really can't win the division next year...I think the other four teams could stay fairly close for a while and all hover around .500.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

And if the Indians knew that Carl Pavano would perform the same as he did last year, except over more starts, they wouldn't have signed him to the contract they did. They're expecting better than that.

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Yeah, thats the point. If by some chance Pavano pitches the way he did last year AND makes 30 starts...it would be a disaster for Cleveland. The Tribe is hoping he makes a comeback.

Actually instead of Pavano making an additional 5.3 million he could make UP TO 5.3 million so in reality his performance bonuses are 3.8 million. Shapiro has already said as well that if Pavano is healthy following spring training he has a spot in the rotation guaranteed.

Some of you are forgetting the bonuses, but just about everyone seems to be forgetting to look at the roster management strategy. By using Pavano the Indians are very likely to save at least 1 option on someone, and their probably keeping the Service Time clock from running on someone. That's easily worth $1.5 to $5 million, even if he's only a 77 ERA+ pitcher.

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Originally Posted by ohms_law

Some of you are forgetting the bonuses, but just about everyone seems to be forgetting to look at the roster management strategy. By using Pavano the Indians are very likely to save at least 1 option on someone, and their probably keeping the Service Time clock from running on someone. That's easily worth $1.5 to $5 million, even if he's only a 77 ERA+ pitcher.

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There are quite a few other guys they could have signed for LESS than $1.5 mil that would do the same thing.
$1.5 mil sound pretty high for a guy who pitched 26 games in 4 years. I understand the strategy, I just think there were other/cheaper options.

Some might argue that Pavano has 'upside', which maybe true

such as?

Take your pick from the guys on this list

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1786

if the Indians are just looking for a guy to make a few starts to keep someone like Scott Lewis in the minors for a bit longer.

If they really want a guy who's going to be a starter for the whole season:
Tim Redding (might could be had for the high end of Pavano's deal)
Odalis Perez or Josh Fogg would come cheaply and have a much better chance of pitching a whole season.