Printable View
Assuming Randy Johnson gets to 300 in SF, who do you think will be next? If I had to venture a guess, I guess I'd go CC (though he seems to be due for some injuries w/ all those innings). Maybe Moyer will pitch til after he's 50? Too early to project for a guy like Hamels or Lincecum?
Curious to see what names are brought up in the discussion
CC, Lincecum, and Oswalt all look like possibilities
It would be nice to see Johnson get 300 in Seattle. Hes coming in late May. I could see Moyer pitching a few more years. He needs to average around 11 wins til hes 50 which could be done. After that, it would be guys like Halladay and Oswalt. Both would have to average 17 wins a year for 10 years though. Mark Buehrle has a chance, hes only 29 and is 10 wins behind Oswalt and Halladay. Plus hes a lefty so he will pitch for ever.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...W_active.shtml
The day of the 300 winner has almost passed.
Assuming each pitcher plays until he's 41...not guaranteed by any means, we have, in order of likelihood (to me):
Johnson: N/A. At age 44 he's over my threshold, but he only needs 5 more. Probable.
Sabathia: 13.07 W/yr. I'd say he has a decent shot, as he's exceeded this rate up until now for poorer quality teams...but I also think he's going to be injury prone in his later career. Has a shot though.
Buehrle: 14.83/yr. Hasn't held this rate to date, and isn't going to get any better. He should do well if he stays injury free, but prolly not.
Halladay: 16.9/yr. Even if we ignore his first season, he's nowhere near this rate for his career. He's peaked late, but I don't see him keeping it up.
Oswalt: 15.54/yr. Like CC, he's beaten this rate to date..but it looks like he may have already peaked.
Lincenum: 16.18/yr. Uhm..are we talking about the same guy? 2 years with the Giants, 25 lifetime wins? Get back to me when he has 100 and we'll talk again.
Moyer: N/A. Well over my threshold (45) and needs 54 wins. Not happening.
Predicting this is, frankly, folly.
HoustonGM, where anti-fun livesQuote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
:eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by asianinvasion
I am really starting to think some people don't know about baseball here.
Houston, you can be incredibly hypocritical. You tell people not to go into threads about subjects they do not like or think are stupid and say negative things about them, and yet you do it ALL THE TIME.
Um, I said that I think predicting the next 300 game winner is folly. I never predict things so far in advance like this. I never said it makes you stupid to do it. I never said you can't do it. All I said is I won't do it because I think it's folly.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsoxRockies
Moyer is amazing...I bet he can pitch til hes 50. He is already 46.Quote:
Originally Posted by cartman00000001
but you have to ask yourself "has it happened, EVER"? Yes I know there is a first for everything, but geesh. AND thinking averaging 11 wins!! No way, no how.Quote:
Originally Posted by asianinvasion
Given that he has 54 wins in the last 4 seasons, I find in a bit difficult to argue that he can't win 54 more in the next 5. Has it ever been done before? No, but then I don't think that any MLB pitcher has ever racked up 54 in his age 42 thru age 45 seasons before either.Quote:
Originally Posted by cartman00000001
I think it's certainly possible for him to do it if: A) he avoids any major injury, B) he continues to be on a good team, and C) he wants to keep playing.
Here you go! Jack Quinn matched Moyer with 54 back from 1926-1929. Phil Niekro came damn close with 51 (and then added 34 more between the ages of 46 and 48!).Quote:
Originally Posted by dps
Well, darn it. I didn't even actually check to see if it had been done before--it just seemed very unlikely. :oQuote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Anyway, if Moyer doesn't make it (and note that I'm not saying that he will, just that I don't think it's a given that he can't), I'd say that Hudson, Halladay, and Oswalt are the best bets (not that I'd bet on anybody will less than 200 wins to get to 300 even if I were a betting man--the odds are against any particular individual doing it). All three are under 35, have a recond of consistant success, and none of them have a really bad injury history (in that since becoming regular starters, none of them have more than 1 season in which they have pitched less than 140 innings).
Buehrle and Oswalt, period. Both guys are not injury risks and consistently pitch 200+ innings while raking in close to 15 wins a season, sometimes more sometimes less.
Fun fact: I know this is irrelevant, but in all of my bbm dynasties, those two have surpassed 300 every dynasty and I've played many dynasties. CC dies out, Halladay started winning too late, and haven't ever gotten there with Lincecum.
Hudson's about to have one ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by dps
And herein lies the problem with something like this. There's plenty of guys that do this until their early-30's and never have injury trouble, and then, bam, its over.Quote:
Originally Posted by bucher34
Yeah power pitchers tend to. These guys pitch like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine (who consistently pitched 200+ innings). They have good control of the ball and find their spots, like Maddux and Glavine. They don't strikeout alot of guys (Oswalt more-so than Buehrle), like Maddux and Glavine. They are finding success consistently at this point in their careers, like Maddux and Glavine. The comparison is there. The argument can go either way, but I just feel like the intangibles are there for them to reach 300. Not saying they will, but the rate they are going it is very possible - more possible than for guys like CC and Halladay.
While I don't disagree that 300 wins is a POSSIBILITY for any of these guys, making any comparisons to all-time greats like Maddux and Glavine is a fool's endeavor. Those guys are ALWAYS the exception. Even if comparisons can be made to younger guys, the chances that the younger guys are anything like them in the long-run are next to none. I'm also not sure why you have Oswalt/Buerhle as more likely to do it than Halladay...He's just like them in terms of succeeding because of movement/control.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
It isn't a "fool's endeavor". Why are Maddux and Glavine "exceptions". So I guess the comparisons made when they were younger were made to "the exceptions" as well. It can go on and on. I'm positive they won't win 355 games, but 305 - very possible.
Why can't these guys end up as all-time greats, like those previously mentioned. I take back my stance on Halladay. I feel like he has the ability to win in the upper teens consistently throughout his career as do Buehrle and Oswalt. Buehrle is the youngest of the three and to this point hasn't really had any major injuries as he's pitched more innings than Oswalt and Halladay (who both have missed significant time in previous seasons). I'm not saying this means anything, but it just shows how durable he has been.
Glavine and Maddux (more Maddux than Glavine) are exceptions because....very few players ever reach their combination of longevity and excellence. They are all-time great players. Projecting an all-time great career for any individual player that hasn't already reached that point (Alex Rodriguez, for example) IS a fool's endeavor.
I would not at all say 305 is "very possible". It's POSSIBLE, yes, but very? Not at all. In the Bill James Handbook, they have a calculation for a player's chance at reaching 30 wins.
Jamie Moyer, Johan Santana, and Brandon Webb are the only non-Johnson/Mussina pitchers with a greater than 20% chance, at 25%, 24%, and 23%, respectively. There are only 4 other pitchers with a 10% or greater chance - Andy Pettitte (18%), C.C. Sabathia (18%), Roy Halladay (16%) and Roy Oswalt (10%). And then only 4 other guys with a greater than 1% chance - Derek Lowe (5%), Mark Buerhle (4%), Javier Vazquez (4%), and A.J. Burnett (2%).
These, obviously, are just statistical calculations, but the point remains - winning 300 games is a very hard milestone, and becoming increasingly harder as pitcher use changes.
These cans MAY end up as all-time greats. But, individually, the chances are slim. As for the durability thing, yes, he's BEEN durable. Look at Tim Hudson - basically just as durable as Buerhle, and then gets injured, pitches just 142 innings in 2008, and is likely to miss a good chunk of 2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by bucher34
Durable pitchers have their careers cut short by injury ALL THE TIME. The guys like Maddux and Glavine that never get injured ARE most definitely the exceptions.
Jeff Weaver has a really, really good shot...