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Hudson's about to have one ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by dps
And herein lies the problem with something like this. There's plenty of guys that do this until their early-30's and never have injury trouble, and then, bam, its over.Quote:
Originally Posted by bucher34
Yeah power pitchers tend to. These guys pitch like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine (who consistently pitched 200+ innings). They have good control of the ball and find their spots, like Maddux and Glavine. They don't strikeout alot of guys (Oswalt more-so than Buehrle), like Maddux and Glavine. They are finding success consistently at this point in their careers, like Maddux and Glavine. The comparison is there. The argument can go either way, but I just feel like the intangibles are there for them to reach 300. Not saying they will, but the rate they are going it is very possible - more possible than for guys like CC and Halladay.
While I don't disagree that 300 wins is a POSSIBILITY for any of these guys, making any comparisons to all-time greats like Maddux and Glavine is a fool's endeavor. Those guys are ALWAYS the exception. Even if comparisons can be made to younger guys, the chances that the younger guys are anything like them in the long-run are next to none. I'm also not sure why you have Oswalt/Buerhle as more likely to do it than Halladay...He's just like them in terms of succeeding because of movement/control.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
It isn't a "fool's endeavor". Why are Maddux and Glavine "exceptions". So I guess the comparisons made when they were younger were made to "the exceptions" as well. It can go on and on. I'm positive they won't win 355 games, but 305 - very possible.
Why can't these guys end up as all-time greats, like those previously mentioned. I take back my stance on Halladay. I feel like he has the ability to win in the upper teens consistently throughout his career as do Buehrle and Oswalt. Buehrle is the youngest of the three and to this point hasn't really had any major injuries as he's pitched more innings than Oswalt and Halladay (who both have missed significant time in previous seasons). I'm not saying this means anything, but it just shows how durable he has been.
Glavine and Maddux (more Maddux than Glavine) are exceptions because....very few players ever reach their combination of longevity and excellence. They are all-time great players. Projecting an all-time great career for any individual player that hasn't already reached that point (Alex Rodriguez, for example) IS a fool's endeavor.
I would not at all say 305 is "very possible". It's POSSIBLE, yes, but very? Not at all. In the Bill James Handbook, they have a calculation for a player's chance at reaching 30 wins.
Jamie Moyer, Johan Santana, and Brandon Webb are the only non-Johnson/Mussina pitchers with a greater than 20% chance, at 25%, 24%, and 23%, respectively. There are only 4 other pitchers with a 10% or greater chance - Andy Pettitte (18%), C.C. Sabathia (18%), Roy Halladay (16%) and Roy Oswalt (10%). And then only 4 other guys with a greater than 1% chance - Derek Lowe (5%), Mark Buerhle (4%), Javier Vazquez (4%), and A.J. Burnett (2%).
These, obviously, are just statistical calculations, but the point remains - winning 300 games is a very hard milestone, and becoming increasingly harder as pitcher use changes.
These cans MAY end up as all-time greats. But, individually, the chances are slim. As for the durability thing, yes, he's BEEN durable. Look at Tim Hudson - basically just as durable as Buerhle, and then gets injured, pitches just 142 innings in 2008, and is likely to miss a good chunk of 2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by bucher34
Durable pitchers have their careers cut short by injury ALL THE TIME. The guys like Maddux and Glavine that never get injured ARE most definitely the exceptions.
Jeff Weaver has a really, really good shot...