A little project I'm thinking of doing (HGM's Historical MVP/Cy Young Choices)

1986:

AL MVP: Roger Clemens
NL MVP: Tim Raines
AL Cy: Roger Clemens
NL Cy: Mike Scott

Only disagreement here came in the NL for the MVP. Mike Schmidt won the BBWAA MVP, and was a very deserving candidate. I have Raines slightly ahead of him though. Raines' OPS+ of 145 nearly matched Schmidt's 152, and OPS+ underrates Raines in that it doesn't capture a huge part of his value - he stole 70 bases at a ridiculous 89% clip. I don't want to take anything away from Schmidt's season, as it was awesome, but I'm giving this one to Raines.

For the AL MVP, I had it really close between Clemens, Don Mattingly, and Jesse Barfield, but I've gotta give it to Roger.

1985:

AL MVP: George Brett
NL MVP: Dwight Gooden
AL Cy: Dave Stieb
NL Cy: Dwight Gooden

The only agreement here came on the only obvious answer - Dwight Gooden for NL Cy Young. I also gave the NL MVP to Doc, as he had a season for the ages. Pedro Guerrero, Tim Raines, and Willie McGee (the BBWAA MVP) all closely followed his tail, but Gooden's season was far enough ahead that I think he was the most valuable player in the NL in 1985.

The AL MVP was an incredibly tough decision. Don Mattingly, Wade Boggs, George Brett, and Rickey Henderson each had amazing seasons. My final choice came down to Brett and Henderson. Brett had the better season at the plate by a good amount, but Henderson was amazing on the basepaths. I agonized between the two, but ended up going with Brett because he amassed more offensive value in terms of both quantity and quality.

Dave Stieb didn't get a sniff of the AL Cy Young award thanks to his mediocre 14-13 record. As you all know, I throw that out the window. When determining the award for the best pitcher in the league, I base my decision purely off how that pitcher PITCHED, and wins and losses are affected too much by outside influences, namely the run support a pitcher receives. Stieb started 36 games, tossing 265 innings with a 2.48 ERA, good for a league-leading 172 ERA+, nearly 20 points higher than second place Charlie Leibrandt who had a 154 ERA+. The BBWAA Cy Young winner, Bret Saberhagen, came in third with a 145 ERA+. Saberhagen trailed Stieb by 30 innings, and 30 points of ERA+. He had that nice-looking 20-6 record, and without a doubt had a fantastic season, but Stieb had a huge edge in quality over the rest of the league, and placed 3rd in the league in innings. Easy call to give this one to Dave Stieb, the most criminally underrated pitcher of the 1980's. It's him that should hold the title of the "Best Pitcher of the 1980's", not Jack Morris.

1984:

AL MVP: Cal Ripken, Jr.
NL MVP: Ryne Sandberg
AL Cy: Willie Hernandez
NL Cy: Dwight Gooden

I gave very strong consideration to both Dave Stieb and Bert Blyleven in the AL for Cy Young, but I think the voters got it right with Willie Hernandez. This is back in the heyday of reliever usage, where the best relievers were throwing 120+ innings, making them extremely valuable. In Win Probability Added, Willie Hernandez posted a figure of 8.58. Second place in the AL was another reliever, Dan Quisenberry, with roughly half that at 4.43. Hernandez didn't toss as many innings as starters like Stieb and Blyleven, but his innings were of utmost importance.

While I agreed that Willie deserved the Cy Young, I disagree on the BBWAA's election of him as the MVP as well. In another mystery I've uncovered, does anybody care to explain to me how the BBWAA voted Cal Ripken the MVP in 1983, but in 1984, despite posting an IDENTICAL season, he received just 1 10th place vote? Oh. Nevermind. I checked. The Orioles went from 1st to 5th, so, obviously, that makes Ripken barely worthy of a vote in 1984! Ripken had a 145 OPS+ and combined it with great defense up the middle. A truly MVP worthy performance, as the BBWAA agreed the year prior.

The 1984 BBWAA Cy Young, Rick Sutcliffe, got a good amount of press this past season, as C.C. Sabathia bettered his performance after switching leagues via trade. Sutcliffe posted a ridiculous 16-1 record in 150 innings after making the switch to the NL, en route to an unanimous Cy Young decision. I disagree. Dwight Gooden did what Sutcliffe did, except he pitched the whole year, throwing 218 innings. I also gave very strong consideration to another reliever, Bruce Sutter, but ended up slotting Gooden ever-so-slightly ahead of him.

Almost 25 years too late Dave Stieb finally gets his Cy Young Award and is rightfully recognized as the "Best Pitcher of the 1980's" ahead of the incredibly overrated Jack Morris and John Olerud gets his MVP for his incredible 1993. Oh, and Houston, get used to the BBWAA giving out awards based on Wins and RBI. Apparently, they're not too clear on the difference between individually generated stats and team influenced stats and they really like the "counting" stats: sad but true.

Yeah, I know, I'm used to it, haha. I was well aware of it before I started this project. It's just amazing to me, still, how crazy they are sometimes. Really, deciding Cy Young's based on a difference of one win, despite a 1 run difference in ERA? :rolleyes:

1983:

AL MVP: Cal Ripken, Jr.
NL MVP: Dale Murphy
AL Cy: Dave Stieb
NL Cy: John Denny

Agreed on all but the AL Cy Young here. The BBWAA deservingly awarded the AL MVP to Cal Ripken, Jr., but failed to do it in 1984 despite an identical season from Cal. As for the AL Cy Young, Dave Stieb takes home his 2nd HGM Cy Young award, despite not getting a single mention on any BBWAA ballot. 24 game winner LaMarr Hoyt won the BBWAA award, despite being beat out by a number of pitchers in both innings and ERA. Jack Morris had what was likely the best season of his career, and the only season so far in which I gave him any Cy Young consideration, tossing 294 innings at a 117 ERA+ level. Dave Stieb, though, threw 278 innings and had an ERA+ of 142, earning him the award. Had Willie Hernandez not gone epic on the league out of the pen in 1984, Stieb likely would've completed a 3-peat.

1982:

AL MVP: Robin Yount
NL MVP: Pedro Guerrero
AL Cy: Dave Stieb
NL Cy: Steve Rogers

The AL MVP is the only agreement here.

In the NL, Dale Murphy, Gary Carter, Mike Schmidt, and Pedro Guerrero all put up fantastic seasons. I've got Guerrero just a tad ahead of that group. His OPS+ is a bit behind Schmidt, but he's ahead of Schmidt in VORP and Batting Runs. Solid defense at the corners helps his case a bit. It could really go to any of those four.

For the AL Cy Young, I've got Stieb again. That's his 3rd HGM Cy Young, and as I mentioned in 1983, you could make an argument for him in 1984 as well, which would've given him four consecutive HGM Cy Young's. He was truly a great pitcher at his peak. I now understand more clearly why the Hall of Merit elected him. He led the league in innings by 20, and had a 138 ERA+, good for 3rd in the league, just behind Rick Sutcliffe (139, 216 innings) and Bob Stanley (140, 168 innings).

In the NL, Steve Carlton won the BBWAA Cy Young on the strength of his 23 wins and 296 innings. I do have Carlton a close second behind Steve Rogers (and Joe Niekro basically tied with Carlton), but Rogers huge edge in quality gives him my award. Rogers led the league with a 152 ERA+ (Carlton had a 119) while throwing 277 innings.

1981:

AL MVP: Rollie Fingers
NL MVP: Mike Schmidt
AL Cy: Rollie Fingers
NL Cy: Steve Carlton

Only one disagreement here - NL Cy Young. For the AL MVP, I really struggled on who to choose. I saw Dwight Evans, Rickey Henderson, Bobby Grich, and Rollie Fingers all very close. I'm still not sure if I made the right choice to agree with the BBWAA and give it to the reliever Fingers, but I'll stick with it. For the NL Cy Young, the country was wrapped up in Fernando-mania that year, leading to Fernando Valenzuela getting the award. Carlton, though, pitched just 2 less innings with a lower ERA and a significantly higher ERA+ of 150 to Valenzuela's 135. So, while Carlton lost his 1982 Cy Young from me, he gained it back in 1981.

1980:

AL MVP: George Brett
NL MVP: Mike Schmidt
AL Cy: Mike Norris
NL Cy: Steve Carlton

The only disagreement here came with the AL Cy Young, and Norris nearly won the BBWAA award. He received 13 first place votes, as many as the winner Steve Stone, but lost out on down-ballot votes. Stone amassed 6 more wins than him, but he threw 30 more innings and had an ERA half a run lower.

1979:

AL MVP: Fred Lynn
NL MVP: Dave Winfield
AL Cy Young: Dennis Eckersley
NL Cy Young: J.R. Richard

Well, here, I disagreed with each and every one of their picks. Let's go one by one.

The BBWAA AL MVP award went to Don Baylor. I have numerous players above him, including but not limited to Fred Lynn, George Brett, Darrell Porter, Bobby Grich, and Ken Singleton. Fred Lynn had a monstrous year, posting a 176 OPS+ and playing great defense. I've got him solidly ahead of the rest of the pack.

The BBWAA NL MVP award was awarded to both Keith Hernandez and Willie Stargell. As we all know, that was more of a "gesture" from the BBWAA, awarding Stargell for a solid year and a great career, but Stargell really had no legitimate MVP argument. Hernandez had a legitimate case, but I think Dave Winfield was solidly above him. Winfield hit .308/.395/.558, 166 OPS+, with 34 HR and 118 RBI. Add to that excellent defense, and he had himself a mighty fine year, grabbing the HGM MVP award.

The BBWAA awarded Mike Flanagan with the Cy Young award. As with the AL MVP, I have the BBWAA winner behind a handful of guys - Tommy John, Jerry Koosman, Ron Guidry, and my choice for winner, Dennis Eckersley. Eckersley didn't throw as many innings as some of those guys, but he also doesn't get enough credit for his run prevention that year. His 2.99 ERA doesn't impress out of that group of pitchers I listed above, but what isn't remembered is that Eckersley pitched in Fenway Park, which was one of the most extreme hitter's parks of the era. Eck bests Koosman and Flanagan by 20 points of ERA+, and beats Tommy John by 13 and Ron Guidry by 4. His innings advantage over Guidry gives him the award.

The NL Cy Young by the BBWAA was awarded to reliever Bruce Sutter. I'm giving it to strikeout machine J.R. Richard. Phil Niekro led the league with an absurd 342 innings, but J.R. Richard was in 2nd with 292, 30 above the 3rd place finisher (the other Niekro, Joe). He had a 100 strikeout advantage over second place Steve Carlton. The only pitcher to post a better ERA+ was reliever Tom Hume. The next year, 1980, Richard was enjoying another fabulous season, but tragedy struck, and Richard went down with a variety of ailments, eventually leading to a stroke which would end his baseball career.

1978:

AL MVP: Ron Guidry
NL MVP: Dave Parker
AL Cy: Ron Guidry
NL Cy: Phil Niekro

Two agreements here, NL MVP and AL Cy. I've got to apologize to Jim Rice. This was really THE season responsible for his soon induction into the Hall of Fame, and he was easily the best position player in the AL, but Ron Guidry just happened to have an epic pitching season, and I've got to give the MVP to him. As for the NL Cy Young, Phil Niekro had nearly a 60 inning edge over any other NL pitcher AND was tied for second in the league with Steve Rogers with a 142 ERA+. Rogers threw nearly 90 innings less, though, and the first place finisher, Craig Swan, trailed Niekro by over 100 innings. Niekro had an ugly 19-18 record, but it's unquestionable that the Braves got more value out of Niekro than any other NL team did with any other pitcher in 1978.

I have to say this is one of the best things I have seen out of BMO forums. Kudos goes to you HGM.

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Originally Posted by ragecage

I have to say this is one of the best things I have seen out of BMO forums. Kudos goes to you HGM.

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Thanks for the kind words. :)

1977:

AL MVP: Rod Carew
NL MVP: George Foster
AL Cy: Nolan Ryan
NL Cy: Steve Carlton

Pretty easy choices here, except for the AL Cy Young which is the only pick I disagreed with. The BBWAA elected yet another reliever, Sparky Lyle. Lyle had a nice season, but not one that I see as particularly noteworthy enough to receive the Cy Young, particularly in a season with multiple strong starting pitcher candidates. My final choice came down to Nolan Ryan and Jim Palmer. Palmer threw 20 more innings, while Ryan was more effective. I almost gave the nod to Palmer, but I decided that Ryan's great quality plus the fact that he did more of his own work (341 strikeouts) trumps Palmer's 20 inning advantage.

Finally Ryan wins a Cy Young award.

1976:

AL MVP: George Brett
NL MVP: Joe Morgan
AL Cy: Vida Blue
NL Cy: Randy Jones

Two agreements here, both in the NL, on Joe Morgan and Randy Jones. In the AL, the BBWAA awarded the MVP to Thurman Munson, who was the top catcher in the league. However, George Brett was far superior as a hitter, even in relation to their position, and the catcher bonus isn't enough to put Munson that high on my list of 1976 MVP candidates. One guy I have over him is a guy that I've considered for MVP a few times already, second basemen Bobby Grich. Grich was, and remains, one of the most underrated players in history in my opinion. His highest finish in the MVP balloting came in 1979 when he placed 8th. When he put up a 164 OPS+ in 1981, he finished 14th. Now, remember, that's a 164 OPS+ from a fantastic defensive second basemen. Grich has many years in which he easily has a claim as being a top-5 player, yet he was never properly recognized as such during his playing career, and he remains snubbed by the Hall of Fame.

The AL Cy Young from the BBWAA went to Jim Palmer, and my final choice came down to him and my choice, Vida Blue. Blue beat Palmer in ERA+, and trailed in innings, but the gap wasn't substantial enough for me to give it to Palmer over Blue. I also dock Palmer a bit for benefiting greatly from the fantastic Baltimore defensive unit. When choosing Cy Youngs, I want to award it to the pitcher who PITCHED the best, himself, and that means attempting to separate a pitcher's accomplishments from that of his defense.

1975:

AL MVP: Rod Carew
NL MVP: Joe Morgan
AL Cy: Jim Palmer
NL Cy: Tom Seaver

The only disagreement here comes in the AL MVP, where, once again, the writers got wrapped up in the great storyline of Fred Lynn and Jim Rice. Jim Rice had no business being in the MVP discussion this year, while Lynn did legitimately have an amazing season. Rod Carew, though, was a second basemen that put up a 157 OPS+ and had good value on the basepaths. He takes his 2nd HGM MVP award in 3 years.

The NL Cy Young caused me some grief, as I see Andy Messersmith, Randy Jones, and Tom Seaver ridiculously close to each other. During my deliberations, I had, at some point, chosen each one of them to be my pick. In the end, I decided to agree with the voters, which agreed with advanced metrics like WARP.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

1978:

AL MVP: Ron Guidry
NL MVP: Dave Parker
AL Cy: Ron Guidry
NL Cy: Phil Niekro

Two agreements here, NL MVP and AL Cy. I've got to apologize to Jim Rice. This was really THE season responsible for his soon induction into the Hall of Fame, and he was easily the best position player in the AL, but Ron Guidry just happened to have an epic pitching season, and I've got to give the MVP to him. As for the NL Cy Young, Phil Niekro had nearly a 60 inning edge over any other NL pitcher AND was tied for second in the league with Steve Rogers with a 142 ERA+. Rogers threw nearly 90 innings less, though, and the first place finisher, Craig Swan, trailed Niekro by over 100 innings. Niekro had an ugly 19-18 record, but it's unquestionable that the Braves got more value out of Niekro than any other NL team did with any other pitcher in 1978.

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The Gator was a one man wrecking crew that year.

HGM, no offense, but I could probably make these picks better then you. Pitchers shouldn't win MVPs unless they go like 100-0, dude.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

HGM, no offense, but I could probably make these picks better then you. Pitchers shouldn't win MVPs unless they go like 100-0, dude.

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*sigh*

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

HGM, no offense, but I could probably make these picks better then you. Pitchers shouldn't win MVPs unless they go like 100-0, dude.

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ROFL.

I would take great amusement in metsguy undertaking this project and making his own picks.

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Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG

ROFL.

I would take great amusement in metsguy undertaking this project and making his own picks.

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I'd do it, but HGM would get pissed at me for clogging up the forums.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

HGM, no offense, but I could probably make these picks better then you. Pitchers shouldn't win MVPs unless they go like 100-0, dude.

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:rolleyes:

Please. You think Hank Aaron was better than Babe Ruth, and that there are three better first basemen than Lou Gehrig. If you made the picks, Pedro Martinez wouldn't have gotten any awards of any kind. Same with Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds.

As for pitchers, you're just...wrong. For reasons not just limited to the wacky use of wins and losses.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

:rolleyes:

Please. You think Hank Aaron was better than Babe Ruth, and that there are three better first basemen than Lou Gehrig. If you made the picks, Pedro Martinez wouldn't have gotten any awards of any kind. Same with Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds.

As for pitchers, you're just...wrong. For reasons not just limited to the wacky use of wins and losses.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

I'd do it, but HGM would get pissed at me for clogging up the forums.

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actually i'd REALLY like to see this done by metsguy

I don't know why he thinks I'd care, as long as he kept it in one thread like I'm doing.

I might suffer an aneurysm when he picks anybody over Barry Bonds in the 2001-2004 period, though.

http://forum.sportsmogul.com/showthread.php?t=191910

Well, you have 100 years or so until we get to 2001-2004 in my awards :D

Really, if you know you're going to choose anybody besides Bonds in those years, you shouldn't do this. That just disqualifies the entire process. An MVP/Cy Young project that gives no awards to Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez really just shouldn't exist.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

HGM, no offense, but I could probably make these picks better then you. Pitchers shouldn't win MVPs unless they go like 100-0, dude.

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Metsguy, you need to buy some baseball books and actually read them. I can't believe you don't understand how great Gehrig was. He was one of the greatest players to ever play this game. If it wasn't for Ruth, Gehrig would be the best of his generation. If he didn't get sick, he would have put up some amazing counting stats, even without the counting stats, he up some numbers that will be hard to beat. He was very consistant, and played over 2100 games in a row. The Iron Man is one of the best players of all time. You could even put him in the top 5 of alltime players. That is how good he was. He isn't a top 5 1st baseman, he is the best one.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Really, if you know you're going to choose anybody besides Bonds in those years, you shouldn't do this. That just disqualifies the entire process. An MVP/Cy Young project that gives no awards to Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez really just shouldn't exist.

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Fine, if you're gonna be such a baby about it, I'll take a steroids-neutral standpoint.

Good luck with that.

FWII, I'm not being a "baby" about it, but you let your evaluation of players be affected too much by outside matters...like with Lou Gehrig as boomboom said above.

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Originally Posted by metsguy234

Fine, if you're gonna be such a baby about it, I'll take a steroids-neutral standpoint.

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get your junk out of here, youre messing up a fine thread.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Really, if you know you're going to choose anybody besides Bonds in those years, you shouldn't do this. That just disqualifies the entire process. An MVP/Cy Young project that gives no awards to Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez really just shouldn't exist.

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i tend to agree on that one... if you incorporate feelings into it it mess's things up.
Also you have to look at the players alone. For example when you talk about MVP the BBWAA takes into account where the team finished. if say pujols and howard put up exactly the same #'s but pujols hit 60 points higher BA and they came in 3rd while philly won the ws... they would give it to howard when Pujols was the better player... They would forget the BA (which is not the only thing) and stellar defense, ad vote Howard... even tho if you inserted Pujols into that lineup instead of howard he may have had even better #'s.

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Originally Posted by boomboom

Metsguy, you need to buy some baseball books and actually read them. I can't believe you don't understand how great Gehrig was. He was one of the greatest players to ever play this game. If it wasn't for Ruth, Gehrig would be the best of his generation. If he didn't get sick, he would have put up some amazing counting stats, even without the counting stats, he up some numbers that will be hard to beat. He was very consistant, and played over 2100 games in a row. The Iron Man is one of the best players of all time. You could even put him in the top 5 of alltime players. That is how good he was. He isn't a top 5 1st baseman, he is the best one.

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Agreed... if it wasnt for Ruth... everyone would have talked about Gehrig

Also to point out, Ruth didnt win all those World Series titles on his own, Lou was a HUGE part of the early Yankee success.

1974:

AL MVP: Reggie Jackson
NL MVP: Joe Morgan
AL Cy: Fergie Jenkins
NL Cy: Phil Niekro

Again, no agreements.

In the AL, Jeff Burroughs won the MVP, for a legitimately good season. However, I have both Rod Carew and Reggie Jackson over him, and I almost gave the award to Carew, but deferred to Reggie's superior offensive numbers. Bobby Grich also had another underrated, unheralded season.

I think the BBWAA NL MVP voters got it drastically wrong. They awarded the MVP to Steve Garvey who had a solid season but nothing spectacular. Furthermore, Lou Brock placed in second on the strength of his record-breaking stolen bases. Mike Marshall also received a first place vote. I have all three of those players behind a gaggle of other guys - Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, Jimmy Wynn, Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell, Reggie Smith, Ralph Garr, and more. Joe Morgan claims his 3rd consecutive HGM MVP award, providing fantastic offense, baserunning, and defense from the second base position.

The AL Cy Young vote with the BBWAA was a close race between Catfish Hunter and Fergie Jenkins. I ended up going with the 2nd place finisher, Jenkins. My choice actually came down to him and Gaylord Perry, who received just one first place vote and 8 total points from the BBWAA. Perry led the league with a 144 ERA+ in 322 innings. Jenkins trailed significantly in ERA+ at 126, but he put up fantastic peripherals, including a fantastic strikeout to walk ratio of 5. He comes out ahead of the pack in advanced metrics like Win Probability Added and WARP, and those swayed me to give him the award over Perry.

The NL BBWAA Cy Young went to Mike Marshall, who came out of the bullpen in a record 106 games, tossing 208 innings. He had a very good season, but I can't look over Phil Niekro's league-leading innings and 2nd place ERA+ of 159, trailing only Buzz Capra who pitched nearly 100 fewer innings.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I don't know why he thinks I'd care, as long as he kept it in one thread like I'm doing.

I might suffer an aneurysm when he picks anybody over Barry Bonds in the 2001-2004 period, though.

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Lol! I am sure it will be scary when he is done. So far it is sorta ok, but just wait, and Hank Aaron will have 10 MVPs and Bonds None. Heck, I would not be surprised if he gave ****ing Beltran or Damon and MVP :p

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Originally Posted by RedsoxRockies

Lol! I am sure it will be scary when he is done. So far it is sorta ok, but just wait, and Hank Aaron will have 10 MVPs and Bonds None. Heck, I would not be surprised if he gave ****ing Beltran or Damon and MVP :p

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Carlos Beltran has a very legitimate MVP case in 2006.

Just sayin'.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Carlos Beltran has a very legitimate MVP case in 2006.

Just sayin'.

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That is true, I was just throwing names. Maybe someone like Jay Bell or Jesse Orsoco instead...

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Originally Posted by RedsoxRockies

That is true, I was just throwing names. Maybe someone like Jay Bell or Jesse Orsoco instead...

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That's Hall of Famer Jesse Orosco to you!

1973:

AL MVP: Reggie Jackson
NL MVP: Joe Morgan
AL Cy: Jim Palmer
NL Cy: Tom Seaver

Disagreed only on the NL MVP. Joe Morgan, again, put up a ridiculously valuable season. He was really quite some player at his peak. He lost out in the BBWAA MVP voting to teammate Pete Rose, who had a very good season, but Joe Morgan bested him in most categories, all while playing second to Pete's left field. Willie Stargell also had a very noteworthy season.

For the AL MVP, I almost gave it to Bert Blyleven, who beat Palmer out by 2 points in ERA+ and had a higher innings total, while also posting a ridiculous WARP of 14. However, one factor that often is overlooked in pitcher evaluation is the unearned run. Now, obviously, not all unearned runs are the fault of the pitcher. However, sometimes, they are. If an error extends an inning, every run after that in the inning is counted as unearned. However, if the pitcher goes on to get hammered, part (or even all) of the blame for those unearned runs has to go to him. Blyleven gave up 18 unearned runs to Palmer's 7, leading to Palmer besting him in RA+ (Run Average Plus, similar to ERA+ except including all runs allowed). The higher RA+ leads to Palmer narrowly edging Blyleven in VORP.