Printable View
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3764268
Quote:
The Phillies have agreed to a three-year contract with free-agent outfielder Raul Ibanez, pending a physical. The deal is believed to be worth $30 million over three years.
The 36-year-old Ibanez will become the Phillies' new every-day leftfielder, and his signing means the Phillies no longer will pursue their long-time leftfielder, Pat Burrell, who is also a free agent.
10 mil per is cheap for him. I think we're seeing with KRod & him, coupled with the long delays to get the FA signing moving that the economy is effecting whats being offered. Great great signing for the Phils.
I don't get it. Not at all. Why Ibanez over Burrell?
Same type of hitter.
Same lack of defense.
Another left-handed bat in a line up that already has Howard and Utley from that side.
He's older. 37. That much more likely to drop off than Burrell would have been.
Not the player I would have signed.
Phillies probably could have made up for losing Burrell even if they'd gone defense in left
True, they are similar. Maybe Burrell didn't want to resign, or length of contract and injury concerns may have been an issue? Ibanez has been far more durable, despite his age. I also think he'll have better stats in the NL with better protection around him than he had in the AL on a poor team. Lastly, I think teams are looking for charecter guys...and I've heard nothing but people on ESPN the last few days ranting about how many people around the Mariners state he's a superb presence in their locker room.Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
Agreed 100%. This really is baffling to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
Burrell not wanting to resign is really the only viable option I see there, and I have no idea if that was the case or not. Burrel's not going to get more than 3-4 years himself. Plus, Ibanez is the greater injury risk.Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
:confused: Over the last 4 seasons, Burrell has played 610 games, an average of 152.5. Ibanez has played 632, an average of 158. That's barely any difference. Both players have been very durable. Neither is "far more durable." Adjust it for age, though, and Ibanez has the greater likelihood for injury and/or sudden collapse.Quote:
Ibanez has been far more durable, despite his age.
yeah, i see my error...i was looking at 'at bats' and of course with all burrells walks his listed 'at bats' were much lower. for some reason, in my haste i ran with it instead of looking at the games played. :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Another option may be dollars......isn't Burrell a Boras guy? 10 mil per for his Ibanez's numbers are pretty good...Burrell I would think if he is a Boras guy is demanding much more.
Why the hell did they not sign Burrell instead? He would not cost much more and is younger. I am surprised really that Ibanez got that much, as well, yet in a way not surprised. i have been expecting him to collapse for years, but he never does. But now the Phillies are paying him $30 Million for 3 years. Do you guys really think Raul has that much left?
Hooray for more Mariners draft picks!
He does.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsoxRockies
Good signing by Philly, although I wish the Mets had gotten him.
Well, now I hope we can snag Burrell...
But he's over 35!
:dQuote:
Originally Posted by whak0985
Unless there was a total falling out with Burrell, this is a weird, weird move.
It's possible Burrell didn't WANT to play there anymore. The fans there were sometimes, well, pretty hard on him.
Actually Burrell has always said that he loved the fans. The Phils offered Burrell 3 years, $33 million during the season and he rejected it. They went back to him but he didn't come down from his demands. He has never really put together a complete season and it ridiculously streaky. Plus he's hurt all the time (he may play through it, but he's hurt).
i dunno about the injuries, he has played the past 4 years consistently at an equivalent level as Raul. His contract demands seem excessive however.Quote:
Originally Posted by skudplayr
His batting average is way, way, way lower than Ibanez.
He walks more though. And that is more important.Quote:
Originally Posted by skudplayr
I had no idea that Ibanez was that old.
Burrell needs to be a DH, he has the mobility of a tree stump. In fact, when he's at the plate they should have a designated runner in the other batter's box, ready to head to first on contact.
More picks for Seattle, it should be 4 1st round picks. #2, #21, whatever Philly's pick was and the supplementary pick,
And his on-base percentage and power are better. All told, they are roughly equivalent hitters. They both suck defensively and on the basepaths. They're both durable.Quote:
Originally Posted by skudplayr
The only difference is that Ibanez is 4 or so years older. Therefore, Burrell > Ibanez.
The same goes for Ibanez.Quote:
Originally Posted by beerchaser
That more describes Raul, who is even worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by beerchaser
What makes this worse is that the Phillies gave up a draft pick, and DIDN'T offer arbitration to Burrell so they won't get one for him leaving. This whole series of events is truly baffling.
I would take Ibanez over Burrell any day. Raul Ibanez hit's for average ( past 4 seasons: 05: .280 06: .289 07: .291 08: .293. He doesn't strike out that often, never had a season about 115, usually in the 90-100 range. He walks 55-70 times per year, so his OBP isn't that bad at all .358 last season, never been below .350 since 04. He hit's for homers 20-30 the last 4 seasons, and he's durable playing in 149 or more games since 2004.
Here are his full stats since 04
04: .304 AVG, .353 OBP, 16 HR, 62 RBI, 36 BB, 72 K, 481 AB
05: .280 AVG, .355 OBP, 20 HR, 89 RBI, 71 BB, 99 K, 614 AB
06: .289 AVG, .353 OBP, 33 HR, 123 RBI, 65 BB, 115 K, 626 AB
07: .291 AVG, .351 OBP, 21 HR, 105 RBI, 53 BB, 97 K, 573 AB
08: .293 AVG, .358 OBP, 23 HR, 110 RBI, 64 BB, 110 K, 635 AB
Pat Burrell Stats
04: .257 AVG, .365 OBP. 24 HR, 84 RBI, 78 BB, 130 K, 448 AB
05: .281 AVG, .389 OBP, 32 HR, 117 RBI, 99 BB, 160 K, 562 AB
06: .258 AVG, .388 OBP, 29 HR, 95 RBI, 98 BB, 131 K, 462 AB
07: .256 AVG, .400 OBP, 30 HR, 97 RBI, 114 BB, 120 K, 472 AB
08: .250 AVG, .367 OBP, 33 HR, 86 RBI, 102 BB, 136 K, 536 AB
Looking at these stats, Ibanez's really proven. Each year he will give you anywhere from a .280-.295 AVG, with 20-30 HR's, and 100+ RBI's, and play in at least most of your games. He's rarley hurt, and he' been playing with a really poor offense lineup. His numbers should even go up playing with a really good hitters park, and a weaker NL. Pat Burrell even playing in a hitters park, hasn't even had more then 1 100 RBI seasons, while Ibanez even at his age had 3 in the last 3 seasons. Burrell walks, but he strikes out a lot. Burrell is more like an Adam Dunn, while Ibanez is more of an all around player. Both are bad defense, and I would take Ibanez offense over Burrell's even at Ibanez age.
I expect HGM will take speak to my point more at length, but just let me say..Quote:
Originally Posted by BrewCrewFan255
No.
Ibanez is pretty good. I never liked Burrell much as a player tho.
Which would you rather have:Quote:
Originally Posted by BrewCrewFan255
Pat Burrell for 1 year at $16 mil or so
or
Raul Ibanez for 3 years at $10 mil per and loss of a first round draft pick
Anybody that chooses option B knows nothing about baseball. And yes, that is essentially what the Phillies did. They did not offer arbitration to Burrell, even though if they had, the options would be getting Burrell back for a year at a cost of around $16 million, maybe even less or letting Burrell go and getting back TWO draft picks. They decided to let Burrell go and forfeit compensation, presumably because there would've been a risk of him accepting and being "overpaid" for one year. So, they signed a guy who is basically the same player, except 5 years older, for more money and 3 years, AND also costs them their first round draft pick. It's ridiculously mindboggling. This article sums it up well.
Doesn't matter once you account for the fact that, overall, they are both basically equally valuable offensively.Quote:
Raul Ibanez hit's for average ( past 4 seasons: 05: .280 06: .289 07: .291 08: .293
Same goes for this.Quote:
He doesn't strike out that often, never had a season about 115usually in the 90-100 range.
Burrell's hasn't been below .365 since 2003.Quote:
He walks 55-70 times per year, so his OBP isn't that bad at all .358 last season, never been below .350 since 04.
Burrell has hit 21-37 home runs in each of the last 8 seasons.Quote:
He hit's for homers 20-30 the last 4 seasons
Burrell is also durable.Quote:
and he's durable playing in 149 or more games since 2004.
Pat Burrell is equally proven. Each year he'll hit .250, with an OBP between .360 and .400, with 30 home runs and play in most of your games.Quote:
Looking at these stats, Ibanez's really proven. Each year he will give you anywhere from a .280-.295 AVG, with 20-30 HR's, and 100+ RBI's, and play in at least most of your games.
Same for Burrell.Quote:
He's rarley hurt
Irrelevant to his value.Quote:
and he' been playing with a really poor offense lineup.
Again, irrelevant to his value. His numbers may appear to be boosted, but because of the different run environment, don't change in value.Quote:
His numbers should even go up playing with a really good hitters park, and a weaker NL.
It kind of sucks when you bat behind Ryan Howard who routinely clears the bases, doesn't it? This has absolutely nothing to do with Burrell or Ibanez as players.Quote:
Pat Burrell even playing in a hitters park, hasn't even had more then 1 100 RBI seasons, while Ibanez even at his age had 3 in the last 3 seasons.
Adam Dunn is better than both of them, but the shape of the offense is irrelevant. It's the value. And Burrell and Ibanez, in terms of value, are equivalent. Adjust for age, and Burrell is the better long-term property by 10,000 miles.Quote:
Burrell walks, but he strikes out a lot. Burrell is more like an Adam Dunn, while Ibanez is more of an all around player.
Their offense is essentially equal. Burrell's OPS+ the last 4 years - 128, 122, 127, 125. Ibanez's 115, 125, 121, 124. And then, you absolutely must account for the age factor.Quote:
Both are bad defense, and I would take Ibanez offense over Burrell's even at Ibanez age.
:p Did it before even seeing your post, hah.Quote:
Originally Posted by KowboyKoop
But really, the main point is what I said above. The entire series of events, beginning with not offering arbitration to Burrell, is ridiculous.
Ibanez is the better fit then Burrell is, the Phillies already have Howard who strikes out a ton. Ibanez at least most of the time puts the ball in play. The reason why Burrell home runs are up is because he's playing in the best hitting park in the NL. In 08, Burrell's numbers were higher on the road, but in 07, he only hit .220 on the road, and in 06 he hit .254 on the road. Ibanez numbers and his overall value will be a lot higher in a hitters park, and he's a better fit then Burrell is.
Most definitely NOT, and I'll get to why in a second.Quote:
Originally Posted by BrewCrewFan255
Again, irrelevant to their overall value as players.Quote:
the Phillies already have Howard who strikes out a ton. Ibanez at least most of the time puts the ball in play.
In 2008, he hit 12 home home runs and 21 away home runs.Quote:
The reason why Burrell home runs are up is because he's playing in the best hitting park in the NL. In 08, Burrell's numbers were higher on the road, but in 07, he only hit .220 on the road, and in 06 he hit .254 on the road.
In 2007, 16/14, 2006, 12/17. 2005, 20/12. 2004, 14/10.
For his career, he has 118 home homers and 133 away homers. His home OPS is .851. His away OPS is .853. Burrell is the exact same hitter when he's at home as he is on the road.
Absolutely wrong. His numbers have a chance to be higher, yes, purely because of the environment, which means his ACTUAL VALUE won't change.Quote:
Ibanez numbers and his overall value will be a lot higher in a hitters park
With Utley and Howard in the middle of the order, the Phillies are very susceptible to the left-handed reliever. Add Ibanez to that, and Charlie Manuel's apparent refusal to split up his lefties in the lineup, and you're going to set it up so that teams can go to their best lefty late in the game for 3 consecutive left-handed batters. It's a terrible strategic move. Ibanez and Burrell are basically the same exact player, except their offensive value is shaped a little differently and they have opposite-handedness. In a lefty-heavy lineup like the Phillies, that means the right-hander is the better fit.Quote:
and he's a better fit then Burrell is.
Please, if you somehow have evidence that a 37 year old poor defensive outfielder with an OPS+ of around 123 over the last few years is somehow more likely to be better over his age 37-39 seasons than a 32 year old poor defensive outfielder with an OPS+ of around 125 over the last few years is to be over his age 32-34 seasons (or, in the case of having offering him arbitration, just simply next year), let me see it.
I'm really interested in knowing how a 3 year commitment, $30 million, loss of a first round draft pick (!!!), and Raul Ibanez is a better choice than Pat Burrell for a year at ~$16 million.
This must have been influenced by Burrell - he must have wanted to go. I mean, not even arbitration?? There had to have been some falling out. This move is at best lateral - if Ibanez performs very well - otherwise it has a big chance of being a net loss.
I was intrigued by the Dunn in LF possibility (although Howard and Dunn in the same lineup might break K records), or thinking they could put Jenkins to use in LF, or bring up/trade for a decent prospect. But Ibanez, then trying to sell this as an improvement? Hmm.
If they knew that Burrell wanted to go, it's an absolutely insanely stupid move not to have offered him arbitration.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alloutwar
They are the defending world series champions...they must do something right
I knew somebody was going to say this.Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
But, they have a new GM now, and while their new GM was a prominent front office figure in building the World Series team, this is still his first GM job and he very well may turn out to be a lousy GM, even if he was a good front office advisor.
At any rate, even if they still have the same GM, having won the World Series doesn't mean that they're incapable of making bad moves. Winning the World Series doesn't mean that every move you made leading up to that win was good, nor does it mean that every move you make immediately after that win will be good.
and maybe they didnt want HIM back and were afraid if they offerd arb. he would accept and we would have a "Maddux issue"
Maddux was offerd arbitration a long time ago (I think 98) and he accepted it when they idnt want him to. The braves ahd every intention of resigning him but think back then if u didnt offer arb. you could not negotiate until may or something liek that. I think i remember reading about it with the whole Clemens retire unretire crep
If he accepted, than they have a solid player back for one year. Instead, they get no compensation for him, resign a player that has provided basically the same exact value as Burrell, except that he's 5 years older and thus much more likely to fall off a cliff, to a 3 year deal, AND give up their first round draft pick.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNamelessPoet
I am not at all saying it was a good stratagy im just saying maybe that was the motivation. maybe THEY wanted HIM gone for some reason. The same reason the Jets cut Kevin Mawae. couild have been a clubhouse problem even tho a good player.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...lick-chimes-in
Quote:
According to former Phillies GM Pat Gillick, this [that Ibanez could have been had for less] might not be true. While hanging around Clearwater, the Phillies home for Spring Training, Gillick remarked that the Cubs had a strong interest in Ibanez and were pushing pretty hard. Lou Piniella and Ibanez shared a solid relationship dating back to Sweet Lou’s managerial tenure in Seattle and was extremely high on the left-handed left-fielder.
The Cubs desired a left-handed outfielder and apparently Ibanez topped their list. If this is true, then the Phillies acted similarly to the Braves with Derek Lowe.
Even if they felt that Ibanez would get signed before they could get him I still think they should have walked away from it or at least not 3 years. Oh well though I'll enjoy our pick this year :p
Yeah. They should've let the Cubs signed him.Quote:
Originally Posted by 200tang
Riiight...you won't be saying that when he hits .295, 28, 110 this year.