http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/
Rasmus #10 so does this mean he stay in St.Louis?
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http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/
Rasmus #10 so does this mean he stay in St.Louis?
yea Lou Marson and Carlos Carrasco are listed!! But where's Jason Donald?
Carlos Triunfel at 30 and Aumont at 33. Sounds good for the M's.
haha, no yankees.
Jesus Montero at #40 is a Yankee, but that's the only one.
I'm happy to see 3 Giants on there. I wonder how far Alderson is from that list.
The Red Sox only have one probably because all the rest have already played in the majors like Masterson, Chris Carter, and that other pitcher with the cool last name...
Isn't there 2 yankees?
Jackson/Montero
So...we're now judging farm systems based on an arbitrary list of the top 50 prospects by a few writers or whatever at mlb.com?? Sweet....two Royals on that list...guess our farm system is better than the Red Sox.
Matt Wieters is #2... Sweet :D
This is exactly why I posted what I did. To highlight the rediculousness of these kind of rankings and to nudge a little snide shot at the Yanks. I really don't know 99% of the names, for all I knew there could be 12 Yanks up there lol.
I'd venture 80-90% of those names never have a quality season 'full' season in the pros.
Frigging Rays....I'm going on record right now. They will repeat as AL East champs.
Why are prospect rankings "ridiculous"?
Very doubtful. I'd go through and figure it out, but, I don't feel like it. Needless to say, these are prospect rankings, so yes, that does mean that some of the players don't have much of a pro track record, but that IS factored into the rankings.Quote:
I'd venture 80-90% of those names never have a quality season 'full' season in the pros.
I just re-read his statement, and I read it wrong. I read it as "I'd venture 80-90% of those names never have HAD a quality season 'full' season in the pros."
And yes, that's more accurate, although I have no clue about what the actual figure is, but yes, most of them won't, but that doesn't make ranking prospects useless.
I think they are useless. They are fluff meant to give fans something to be hopeful for but I seriously question the background work put into them. I don't believe for a second that actual teams use this information, they have much more in depth reports on players so these are strictly for fans and is about the most useless information published.
It is clear that teams' dont use these as a basis for their analysis but also clear that sites like BA/MILB do put in work to obtain them.
For this list,all the players' concerned are top prospects & have been watched multiple times by various different scouts & annalists.It is here that bs occurs but when you get to lists produced of individual teams & their #15th prospect on....
Especially when the rankings are based on their tools rather than their actual performance (which is the ranking based on 08 draftees mainly who have ridiculously small sample sizes.)
Otherwise I agree that lists are for the fans but isnt that the role of these Baseball sites ?
Two Cardinals:D:D
Colby Rasmus #10
Brett Wallace #42(He's fat lol:D)
I actually think far less than 10 will, not insane at all IMO.
And I still think these are useless. I know teams have their own lists...i just don't think these lists for one are well researched and for two really tell the fan much of anything. With such a huge failure rate of prospects....what is there really to gain with such a list?
Let's do a quick check here. Here's one top prospect list from 2002.
Of the top 50, I count 19 players that have never had a "quality season" and only 3 players that never made the MLB. (Joe Borchard, Boof Bonser, Chris Snelling, Alex Escobar, Nick Neugebauer, JR House, Kurt Ainsworth, Ricardo Rodriguez, Antonio Perez, Adam Johnson, Chin-Feng Chen, Dennis Tankersley, Jimmy Journell, Luis Terrero, Mike Restovich, Drew Henson and Jamal Strong, plus the 4 guys that haven't made the MLB - Ryan Anderson, Corwin Malone, and Ty Howington).
I count 21 players that have had significant major league careers, at least 10 of whom have had multiple "star level" seasons. (Casey Kotchman , Juan Rivera, Rafael Soriano, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Phillips, Hank Blalock, Carl Crawford, Mike Cuddyer, Nick Johnson, Brett Myers, plus the stars: Mark Texieria, Josh Beckett,Mark Prior, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, Joe Mauer, Adam Wainwright, Justin Morneau, Jake Peavy). The other players are guys like Angel Berroa or Jerome Williams who have had a quality season but little else.
This tells me that you're grossly incorrect in your assessment of these lists. The overwhelming majority of players that make top prospect lists go on to have some form of a Major League career, and a good percentage of them go on to have a quality or better career. So, yeah, I do think it's basically insane to say that "far less than 10" of this top 50 list will ever have a quality major league season.
Baseball America, the top "prospect list" producer, spends all season long scouting and collecting information on prospects, and then spends all winter putting together their lists. While there's undoubtedly prospect lists out there by people that don't have much research put into them, it's borderline slander to say that the major top prospect lists (John Sickels, BA, Keith Law, etc.) aren't well-researched.Quote:
And I still think these are useless. I know teams have their own lists...i just don't think these lists for one are well researched and for two really tell the fan much of anything.
As for what they tell the fan, they tell the fan information about the top minor league players in the game. Also, they provide topics for discussion, which is never useless. Maybe you're not interested in prospects, but a very large portion of baseball fans are.
Prospects in general have a high failure rate. Players good enough to make top prospect lists generally have a solid success rate, as the 2001 list above shows.Quote:
With such a huge failure rate of prospects....what is there really to gain with such a list?
I don't entirely agree with that. I think the figure of 10 panning out in to top notch players and pitchers is probably about right. I think some others will turn out to be nice platoon guys or very good bench players. Some of the high profile starting pitching prospects will end up as very good, consistent middle relievers. However, I think 10/50 making it as big as they're hyped to be is probably dead on.
Henson Made the Majors he has a .111 average but retired to play in the NFL
You're right. Fixed my post.
This isn't a bad assessment. However, say that 10/50 make it just as they're "hyped" to...There will also be some that surpass their "hype" (and some that never come remotely close to reaching it, of course).Quote:
Originally Posted by Arctic Blast
Dickay, though, is contending that less than 10 of these guys will ever have a decent major league season, and that's just....nowhere close to accurate.
HGM, you called Mark Prior a star?
Nice, in the top-10, all but 4 were busts (Ankiel was a bust as a pitcher).
Pujols came out of nowhere. Drafted in 1999 in the 13th round, he didn't have that much of a "scouting" pedigree, hence why he didn't rank highly on prospect lists. In 2000, he skyrocketed through the minor leagues (ranking 23 on that same group's prospect list the next season), and was up for good that year.