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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Here's a look at a bunch of the modern pitchers:
Code:
Pitcher Career Peak JAWS
Roger Clemens 199.6 83.9 141.8
Greg Maddux 180.3 86.0 133.2
Randy Johnson 147.0 77.3 112.2
Tom Glavine 137.4 63.7 100.6
Pedro Martinez 118.0 68.8 93.4
Mike Mussina 117.8 64.3 91.1
John Smoltz 122.8 58.5 90.7
Curt Schilling 110.3 65.9 88.1
Avg HoF SP 106.0 67.2 86.6
Thanks for this. It's an interesting list. I also find it interesting that the top 5 on this list are the only 5 starters from the 90s that I'd vote into the HOF if I had a ballot. Mussina, Smoltz and Schilling are all close-but-no-cigar as far as I'm concerned.
I'm curious how this guy defines a "peak," because Pedro's looks a little low, and the idea of Pedro being only a slight notch above Mussina seems kind of... ridiculous.
Anyway, you do make a strong case, and it's swayed me to be a little less anti-Mussina as a HOFer and more accepting of the idea, but I still wouldn't vote for him. And the idea of "well above average" as a HOF description doesn't really do it for me.
And I'm not sure I'd go with you on the size of the league thing, because theoretically, the cream should rise to the top the same way, no matter how many teams there are. And more teams/players doesn't mean there can/should be more HOFers, in my opinion.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Talent is "diluted" after any expansion year, but tends to even out. Not sure what exactly you're trying to say here.
That there are more teams now, hence more players, than ever before. More players are in baseball that wouldn't have been in baseball when there were less teams. More easy(er) outs.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
justanewguy
I'm curious how this guy defines "peak value," because Pedro's looks a little low, and the idea of Pedro being only a slight notch above Mussina seems kind of... ridiculous.
Sorry if I wasn't clear. Career WARP is the player's total WARP3 for his career. Peak WARP is the total WARP of the player's 7 best seasons (according to WARP, obviously).
But, looking it over, there has to be an error in the numbers he posted, as I'm getting Pedro's best 7 seasons to total up to 76.4. Mussina now gets a slight bump due to this past season and comes out at 66.4 (I'm getting 65.6 prior to this year, slightly off from the numbers he posted).
I also should mention that WARP3 is "adjusted for all-time", so the calculation will change slightly from year to year, although one year shouldn't be enough for the 8 point change in Pedro's 7 best seasons.
Here are their current best 7 seasons (including 2008), Pedro on top, Mussina below:
14.1, 13.2, 10.9, 10.6, 9.8, 9.6, 8.2
10.5, 9.6, 9.6, 9.6, 9.3, 8.9, 8.9
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
What about Baines and Raines and Parker? They each deserve to be in the HOF
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsoxRockies
What about Baines and Raines and Parker? They all should be in....
I agree with Raines, not on Baines and Parker.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
I agree with Raines, not on Baines and Parker.
Not even if you add in Parker's glove?
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsoxRockies
Not even if you add in Parker's glove?
I include everything when evaluating players.
Parker had a very good arm. His overall defensive ability wasn't anything special (-47 FRAA for career, two excellent seasons in 1975 and 1977 and a good season in 1983, below average otherwise).
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
I include everything when evaluating players.
Parker had a very good arm. His overall defensive ability wasn't anything special (-47 FRAA for career, two excellent seasons in 1975 and 1977 and a good season in 1983, below average otherwise).
Where do you find all these sabremetric fielding stats for players from like 20 years ago? Or are you calculating it yourself?
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Dave Parker is Jim Rice with a little more career value. Excellent peak, but not historically great to get them in solely on peak value (such as Koufax/Pedro). Very good career, but not Hall-worthy. There's a boatload of players in the Dave Parker/Jim Rice range.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
I agree with Raines, not on Baines and Parker.
I totally agree.
Raines (as I said above) was the best pure leadoff hitter of his era, and a career OBP of .385 with 808 career steals makes him a total standout. His steal success rate is also remarkable. I doubt Raines ends up making the Hall, although he deserves it.
But Baines and Parker were just not good enough to be in the Hall. They were very good players, but nothing earth-shattering, and were outshined by a host of significantly better hitters in their era.
I'd be surprised if any of the three will make the real life Hall.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsoxRockies
Where do you find all these sabremetric fielding stats for players from like 20 years ago? Or are you calculating it yourself?
Baseball Prospectus tracks Fielding Runs Above Average (and Above Replacement). On their site search for a player, view his DT card, and there's a ton of stats there.
FRAA is far from a great measuring stick for defense, but it's the most easily accessible. The best defensive measurements don't really go back that far.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
justanewguy
I'd be surprised if any of the three will make the real life Hall.
Yep. And it's truly baffling. Jim Rice is going to get in this year. It'd be incredibly out-of-line with history if he doesn't, considering how close he was last year. Now, what in the heck is the argument for Jim Rice being in, but not Dave Parker?
Raines was a fantastic player with a great peak, and quite possibly the best non-Rickey leadoff man ever. Raines is more than qualified and it's a shame that he faces a real tough uphill battle.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Yep. And it's truly baffling. Jim Rice is going to get in this year. It'd be incredibly out-of-line with history if he doesn't, considering how close he was last year. Now, what in the heck is the argument for Jim Rice being in, but not Dave Parker?
Raines was a fantastic player with a great peak, and quite possibly the best non-Rickey leadoff man ever. Raines is more than qualified and it's a shame that he faces a real tough uphill battle.
He could get in later on, I feel he will top 5%
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsoxRockies
He could get in later on, I feel he will top 5%
Who? Raines? Yeah. He got somewhere in the vicinity of 20% last year, but like I said, it's an uphill battle.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Who? Raines? Yeah. He got somewhere in the vicinity of 20% last year, but like I said, it's an uphill battle.
Unless all the BBWAA mysteriously dies...
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Re: Mussina,
Joe Sheehan's article at BP today got me thinking. Here's what he said about Mussina:
Quote:
Mike Mussina: But for three disastrous starts in August of 2007, Mussina would be perceived much differently. The three outings, in which he allowed 25 hits and 20 runs in 9 2/3 innings, destroyed his 2007 pitching line and gave rise to the idea that he was done. Prior to those starts, he was having a reasonable season for a 38-year-old: a 4.50 ERA, 3/1 K/BB, 5 2/3 IP/start. After them, he made five appearances with a 3.49 ERA, and of course, followed that with his strong 2008 season. Those starts happened, and you can't just ignore them, but it's clear that the hysteria that accompanied them was disproportionate, and that they signaled not the end of Mussina's career, but a trough in an extended stretch of effective pitching. Hitting the market at 40, he's a six-inning starter who doesn't walk batters and would he helped by a big park and a good defense. Forget 300 wins; in the right situation, Mussina could have Jamie Moyer's forties and win 320. A move to the NL would help.
Emphasis mine. Of course, it all hinges on Mussina's personal decision, but if he does return, and puts himself in a favorable situation (NL, pitcher's park, good defense), Sheehan's absolutely correct that Mussina could be far from finished.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Raines was a fantastic player with a great peak, and quite possibly the best non-Rickey leadoff man ever. Raines is more than qualified and it's a shame that he faces a real tough uphill battle.
In my mind, he's the best leadoff man ever, non-Rickey division. His consistency especially makes him stand
out in a role which usually sees players with short shelf lives. His career numbers are incredible, and he was a better player than a few hall players who had 3000 hits. Playing in Montreal definitely prevented him from getting the exposure he deserved.
Quote:
Re: Mussina,
Joe Sheehan's article at BP today got me thinking. Here's what he said about Mussina:
Emphasis mine. Of course, it all hinges on Mussina's personal decision, but if he does return, and puts himself in a favorable situation (NL, pitcher's park, good defense), Sheehan's absolutely correct that Mussina could be far from finished.
For me, if Mussina could give 2 or 3 more GOOD seasons, it would push him over the fence to get into the Hall. It'd be based mostly on career totals for me. This is even once instance in which I'd look at wins. A guy who was such a horse for so long (11 seasons of 200+ innings) and pitched so well... this is where wins can show something. He has a lot of decisions period, which speaks to the ability for the ball to be put in HIS hands to allow only him win or lose the game. So 300 wins plus a career with added value... these things would make him a lock in my mind.
I wouldn't even mind seeing the Dodgers put some money on the table for this guy, even though I should be wary of such a deal as a Dodger fan...
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
justanewguy
In my mind, he's the best leadoff man ever, non-Rickey division.
I wouldn't disagree. I just said "quite possibly" because I haven't actually examined the leadoff hitters as a whole. Off the top of my head though, yes, he's second to Rickey.
Quote:
I wouldn't even mind seeing the Dodgers put some money on the table for this guy, even though I should be wary of such a deal as a Dodger fan...
That actually would be a solid place for Moose, in terms of solidifying his Hall case and in terms of the Dodgers needs.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
I wouldn't disagree. I just said "quite possibly" because I haven't actually examined the leadoff hitters as a whole. Off the top of my head though, yes, he's second to Rickey.
In terms of what we now know a leadoff hitter is "supposed to be," I can't think of anyone better. I also keep calling him the "best pure leadoff hitter of his era" because Rickey was more of a 2-4 hitter with TONS of speed and the ability to get on base at an insane rate, and because other eras may have had better leadoff hitters based on their own qualifications.
Quote:
That actually would be a solid place for Moose, in terms of solidifying his Hall case and in terms of the Dodgers needs.
An excellent veteran pitcher that you can be almost certain will give you close to 200 innings... it'd be great. My guess is that the Dodgers pick him up or pick up Johnson, and round it out all out with another vet of the same mold but with a lower profile and fewer career achievements. Their money will be focused on the offense, and they'll have some young starters with very high upsides mixed with solid, relatively healthy and relatively cheap vets to carry the rotation.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Interesting article here regarding the Hall of Fame, a pitcher discussed in this thread, and a pitcher I think everybody agrees is a HOFer.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Also, regarding JAWS and Peak WARP, I messaged the author back, and this is one of the big reasons I love BP - their writers respond to emails in detail AND quickly. Here's what Jay Jaffe responded to me with:
Quote:
Hi Erik,
There are two reasons why what you're seeing won't match what's been
reported in an older article:
1. the data you're looking at on the DT cards is more recent than
what's in my spreadsheet, which was used for that article; I only
update once or twice a year, and Clay Davenport makes all kinds of
exceedingly minor tweaks in between that are too difficult to stay on
top of. New data will be forthcoming at the end of this month, with
some BIG changes in WARP that will render what you're looking at
somewhat outdated anyway ;-).
2. In the JAWS version of WARP, we assess a slight downward
adjustment to AL pitchers of the DH era so that they're not unfairly
aided relative to their NL and pre-DH counterparts by not having to
bat. This generally reduces a full season starter's line by 0.5 to
1.0 WARP relative to what you see on the cards.
Hope that helps. Look for updated JAWS stuff coming at the end of
this month. And thanks for reading.
Jay Jaffe
Author, Baseball Prospectus
off topic, but I'm excited for the big WARP changes :)
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
So they are changing WARP? Cool
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Here's the official ballot:
2009 candidates
• Harold Baines
• Jay Bell
• Bert Blyleven
• David Cone
• Andre Dawson
• Ron Gant
• Mark Grace
• Rickey Henderson
• Tommy John
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Jesse Orosco
• Dave Parker
• Dan Plesac
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Blyleven
henderson
Raines
2009 candidates
• Harold Baines888 No but OHHHH so close
• Jay Bell*** laughable
• Bert Blyleven *** Yes• David Cone
• Andre Dawson*** No
• Ron Gant*** No
• Mark Grace*** No (snicker)
• Rickey Henderson gee let me think :p
• Tommy John *** No but another good year or so and he might have been in
• Don Mattingly*** Here we go.... lets let the argumens fly... NO
• Mark McGwire*** No
• Jack Morris *** no (finny think is I ONLY remember him from 1 game in the WS and had no idea he played for Detroit so long lol
• Dale Murphy*** NO
• Jesse Orosco*** Laughable
• Dave Parker*** No
• Dan Plesac*** WHO!?!?!?
• Tim Raines *** Yes... (but I may be more favorible from the steals...)
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Is it true the voters can vote for up to four???
If so, I guess my ballot would be:
Bert Blylevin
Rickey Henderson
Tommy John
Mark McGwire
Probably only one of those will actually get it though. I'm guessing Henderson won't have any difficulty.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
OldFatGuy
Is it true the voters can vote for up to four???
Voters can list up to ten names on their ballot.
My picks haven't changed from when I first made this thread - Blyleven, Henderson, McGwire, Raines, and Trammell.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Henderson, definitely yes. I'm on the fence with Raines, Blyleven and McGwire. If I was in a good mood, I'd probably vote yes for all three. As it is, not this year.
That said, I think Rice will get in this year, and probably Blyleven as well. Raines and McGwire won't get in this year.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
I would say no for Mattingly, now if he retired in 1990 due to his injury issues, you may have a "Dizzy Dean" argument for him. 1990-1995 he was mearly an average hitter, I think that hurt him and why he isnt in the Hall today.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
My choices stand as they were
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Henderson, McGwire, Blyleven, Raines
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ragecage
I would say no for Mattingly, now if he retired in 1990 due to his injury issues, you may have a "Dizzy Dean" argument for him. 1990-1995 he was mearly an average hitter, I think that hurt him and why he isnt in the Hall today.
If he retired in 1990, he wouldn't have the minimum of 10 years ;)
But, at any rate, I don't think his peak was good enough to warrant induction based solely on peak, and I honestly don't think Dizzy Dean's was either. Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Ralph Kiner...those are examples of guys with great enough peaks to warrant inclusion regardless of the rest of their careers.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TheNamelessPoet
Blyleven
henderson
Raines
2009 candidates
• Harold Baines888 No but OHHHH so close
• Jay Bell*** laughable
• Bert Blyleven *** Yes• David Cone
• Andre Dawson*** No
• Ron Gant*** No
• Mark Grace*** No (snicker)
• Rickey Henderson gee let me think :p
• Tommy John *** No but another good year or so and he might have been in
• Don Mattingly*** Here we go.... lets let the argumens fly... NO
• Mark McGwire*** No
• Jack Morris *** no (finny think is I ONLY remember him from 1 game in the WS and had no idea he played for Detroit so long lol
• Dale Murphy*** NO
• Jesse Orosco*** Laughable
• Dave Parker*** No
• Dan Plesac*** WHO!?!?!?
• Tim Raines *** Yes... (but I may be more favorible from the steals...)
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams
Why does Murphy get the emphatic NO? Did he hit you with a foul-ball and ask you if you had let Jesus into your life?
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Here's the official ballot:
2009 candidates
• Harold Baines
• Bert Blyleven
• David Cone
• Andre Dawson
• Mark Grace
• Rickey Henderson
• Tommy John
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Dave Parker
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
My original picks are all on the final ballot and still stands!
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
If he retired in 1990, he wouldn't have the minimum of 10 years ;)
But, at any rate, I don't think his peak was good enough to warrant induction based solely on peak, and I honestly don't think Dizzy Dean's was either. Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Ralph Kiner...those are examples of guys with great enough peaks to warrant inclusion regardless of the rest of their careers.
So you have to have 10 years of MLB experience to become eligible? I had no idea.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ragecage
So you have to have 10 years of MLB experience to become eligible? I had no idea.
Yes. In order to be eligible for the Hall, you have to have played in the majors in at least 10 separate years. They sometimes make exceptions, although I think the only exception they ever made was for Addie Joss.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Yes. In order to be eligible for the Hall, you have to have played in the majors in at least 10 separate years. They sometimes make exceptions, although I think the only exception they ever made was for
Addie Joss.
Based in the time Addie played in when healthcare wasnt great I can see that. I guess the only exceptions they would consider is early death.
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Sportsnation's HOF poll totals so far:
Which players would get your vote on a Hall of Fame ballot?
74.7% Rickey Henderson
44.1% Jim Rice
41.0% Andre Dawson
31.5% Bert Blyleven
30.3% Don Mattingly
27.9% Lee Smith
26.2% Trenidad Hubbard
25.4% Mark McGwire
21.7% Jack Morris
20.7% Tim Raines
20.3% Jesse Orosco
18.6% Tommy John
17.2% Dan Plesac
16.7% Dale Murphy
14.7% Alan Trammell
14.7% Mark Grace
11.8% Greg Vaughn
11.5% David Cone
11.3% Dave Parker
9.8% Harold Baines
8.5% Matt Williams
7.4% Jay Bell
5.5% Mo Vaughn
5.3% Ron Gant
(Just kidding about Trenidad Hubbard... I added him in there to see if you were paying attention!)
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
So, the majority of voters there must be idiots if Rickey Henderson wouldn't even get elected by the SportsNation voters. :( And I like how every candidate would get the requisite 5% to stay on the ballot lol
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
How many years did Catfish Hunter have?
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Re: This year's Hall of Fame ballot
Gotta feel sorry for the Dave Parker supporters after SN gives Greg Vaughn more votes, but a lot of younger voters that remembered players like Gant, Jay Bell, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, etc. probably voted for them spiking their numbers up.
