Doesn't he have an ownership stake now in the team too?Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
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Doesn't he have an ownership stake now in the team too?Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Yep, you're right. He's got the job for as long as we can see into the future and longer.
I'd think, being outgunned by a perennial 100W-quality team in your own division, having less young talent than you've ever had in your tenure, and failing to make the playoffs in a couple years... is as close to a "catastrophe" as you can get in this instance. Besides, when has Beane ever... won a championship? These are the things you take into consideration when you own a ballclub.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
True. And I looked into these stats too, and his numbers are actually rather atrocious at those parks. Which makes me fear for how he'd perform at a recently pitcher-friendly park like McAfee.Quote:
It's also important to remember that Holliday plays a large portion of his road games in two of the pitcher-friendliest parks in the major leagues in PETCO and AT&T. Dodger Stadium in 2008 was also very pitcher-friendly (though not so in 2007/2006).
Good call. This, again, makes me wonder how much of this has to do with home/away and how much has to do with Coors.Quote:
It's also worth noting that Holliday's road OPS has steadily been increasing each year of his career:
2004: .654
2005: .729
2006: .819
2007: .860
2008: .892
Earlier today I was talking with a friend about this exact thing, and I suggested I'd expect .310/.380/.490 out of Holliday. I think he turns into more of a doubles hitter and less a power hitter in the AL. Maybe a 20/50 type. There's no doubt he'll be good, I just wonder exactly how much GMs take into account things like splits and adjusted numbers when they're putting money on the table.Quote:
Holliday would likely continue putting up 130-140 OPS+'s wherever he is. It's not conclusive by any means, but take a look at other Colorado players that left Colorado...most of them continued putting up similar OPS+'s elsewhere. Their raw stats may look worse, but adjusted for ballpark, they're not. I'd expect at least .300/.370/.500 from Holliday playing his home games elsewhere (except PETCO).
I'm not saying he's going to suck, but there's a large disparity in the numbers, and it's possible a team will give him a ridiculous deal based on RAW numbers, and end up overpaying him in the process. As in, giving him HOFer type money instead of All Star type money.
I wouldn't mind seeing Matt Holliday in Dodger Blue, if for no other reason that his dad is the pitching coach at my alma mater, NC State. Coach Holliday did an outstanding job with the Wolfpack pitching staff last season, BTW.
And, as I forgot and Binglebop pointed out, Beane does partially own the club. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by justanewguy
Yes, it's a fair worry.Quote:
True. And I looked into these stats too, and his numbers are actually rather atrocious at those parks. Which makes me fear for how he'd perform at a recently pitcher-friendly park like McAfee.
Yep, you're right. There will be a team suckered into it. The A's won't be that team though. But, given a season in Oakland, his raw numbers will look more ordinary, and it might result in him earning less money than had he entered the market straight out of Colorado.Quote:
I'm not saying he's going to suck, but there's a large disparity in the numbers, and it's possible a team will give him a ridiculous deal based on RAW numbers, and end up overpaying him in the process. As in, giving him HOFer type money instead of All Star type money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BINGLEBOP
It will probably be... "dan dowd stupid gm dumber than kid!!! holliday runner up mvp trade for garbage from oakland! not trade atkins too if so stupid gm!!!! dan dwod should fired now! probaly trade tulo and helton next for garbage player"Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Lol! :D I don't know that we even need an 'official' Yamiviet reaction anymore...this basically qualifies.Quote:
Originally Posted by BINGLEBOP
LOL. Holliday is more of a doubles hitter than he is a HR hitter, so I think 25-40 is definately possible saying he's basically done it the last 3 years (Averages 30 HR 44 2B.)
Espn is reporting that Huston Street is involved in this trade
I forgot about this. You're right, it probably would take a "catastrophe," but a third straight season with poor results couldn't possibly look good for this team. I could see the revenue drop significantly if they fail to reach the playoffs again. That's why I'm curious to see exactly where this move is headed. Do they bring in a couple of impact free agents to round the team out? I guess they could be a serious wild card contender with only a couple more pieces, but I don't know.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
And you know they're going to get twice as much in return as they gave up for him, especially if they trade him in June or July. So they'll either be in contention with Holliday and trade him after the 2009 season, essentially renting him for free for one year, or they'll double their investment by getting rid of him midseason. All in all, I'm starting to think this is a brilliant move...Quote:
Yes, it's a fair worry.
Yep, you're right. There will be a team suckered into it. The A's won't be that team though. But, given a season in Oakland, his raw numbers will look more ordinary, and it might result in him earning less money than had he entered the market straight out of Colorado.
But I still think Beane will have to "step it up" a little if he wants to compete with the 100-win Angels, let alone the slew of stacked teams in the AL Central and AL East that fight for the wild card each season.
I mean, slightly more of a doubles hitter than before, less of a home run hitter. I foresee 5 to 10 of his HR turning into 2B.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockiesfan4ever
He has 84 career HR at home and 44 away... with roughly the same amount of AB.
There's been rumors that they're targeting Rafael Furcal in free agency.Quote:
Originally Posted by justanewguy
I have a feeling that Beane doesn't view the Angels as a legitimate 100-win team. Beane sees that the Angels outscored their opponents by 68 runs, more characteristic of a 88 win team than a 100 win team. He also probably sees that the Angels aren't likely to get a repeat season of the same caliber out of Joe Saunders, nor are they likely to duplicate the success of their bullpen at quite the same level, and there's also a good chance that they lose two key players in K-Rod and Tex. Barring big moves on the Angels part, they're much more likely to win 85 games next year than they are to come close to the 100 wins they had this season. Beane recognizes that, and if he is indeed planning on contending (there's also word that the trade order may have come from "above", and Beane's doing it out of necessity and not his own vision), he's going to try and make his team into an 88-game winner and bank on the Angels coming down to Earth (which isn't unlikely).Quote:
But I still think Beane will have to "step it up" a little if he wants to compete with the 100-win Angels, let alone the slew of stacked teams in the AL Central and AL East that fight for the wild card each season.
More than that, if the As don't compete next year they will hold Holiday at the trade deadline (how big was right handed power at the deadline this year) -- Beane is notoriously good as evaulting talent and getting the best deal possible, and holding a player like Street ( the biggest trading chip in there) is highly risky given his lost closer role, injuries and inconsistencies.
Worst of Worst Beane will wind up with two draft picks when Holliday leaves via FA'cy at the end of the year.
This deal is shrewd on many levels for Beane ...
mat halliday to the braves for peavy :p
Holliday, Furcal, (Giambi?), and a couple of role players could be enough to boost them to 90ish wins...Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Good point... but I can't imagine the Angels don't replace Teixeira or somehow upgrade the team overall. Since they picked Tex up when they already had the division wrapped up, I think they've changed their philosophy to that of trying to stack the team wherever they can at any cost, even the future (just like how they gave up Kotchman for a possible one year rental player), so they can hold their own in playoff slugfests against teams like Boston.Quote:
I have a feeling that Beane doesn't view the Angels as a legitimate 100-win team. Beane sees that the Angels outscored their opponents by 68 runs, more characteristic of a 88 win team than a 100 win team. He also probably sees that the Angels aren't likely to get a repeat season of the same caliber out of Joe Saunders, nor are they likely to duplicate the success of their bullpen at quite the same level, and there's also a good chance that they lose two key players in K-Rod and Tex. Barring big moves on the Angels part, they're much more likely to win 85 games next year than they are to come close to the 100 wins they had this season. Beane recognizes that, and if he is indeed planning on contending (there's also word that the trade order may have come from "above", and Beane's doing it out of necessity and not his own vision), he's going to try and make his team into an 88-game winner and bank on the Angels coming down to Earth (which isn't unlikely).
Given that they'll try to resign Teixeira or make a big splash in the market, I see the Angels as a 90+ win team next season, since they won 100 games with only half a season of Teixeira. I expect the Angels to be the 4th biggest player in the offseason market, right after the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. I'd be shocked if they sat idly.
Basically, I still think the As have a very steep hill to climb, and if the As become a buyer this offseason, it'll make for some interesting baseball in the AL. Especially considering that Baltimore looks like they might be a big buyer as well.