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Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
On his first full day as the Mets' long-term manager, Manuel forcefully attacked the SABR-type mathematical analysis some have fixated on in recent years.
"You get so many statistical people together, they put so many stats on paper, and they say, well, if you do this and you score this many runs, you do that many times, you'll be in the playoffs," he said.
"That's not really how it works, and that's what we have to get away from. And that's going to have to be a different mind-set of the team in going forward. We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people. We have to win because we have baseball players that know and can understand the game."
Have fun missing the playoffs for the next ten years Mets fans.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
I don't even know what what he's saying means. It doesn't even really sound like he knows what he's saying.
You don't win by having statistical people. You don't win by knowing and understanding the game. You win by scoring more runs than your opponents. It's as simple as that. And yes, contrary to seemingly popular belief, the use of statistical analysis can help identify how to maximize your run scoring and run prevention.
And I still have no idea what the hell "knowing how to win" is.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
what I understood from that is that you cant ONLY use statistics... every once and a while u use your gut... or use the guy who is hot. thats what I think he ment.... but i dont really know anything so :p
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
Quote:
"You get so many statistical people together, they put so many stats on paper, and they say, well, if you do this and you score this many runs, you do that many times, you'll be in the playoffs," he said.
Also, nobody says this. It's just another strawman from the anti-statistics people.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
TheNamelessPoet
what I understood from that is that you cant ONLY use statistics... every once and a while u use your gut... or use the guy who is hot. thats what I think he ment.... but i dont really know anything so :p
Saying that you can't only use statistics is completely meaningless because nobody advocates only using statistics.
Like what I quoted in my above post, it's a ridiculous strawman used in a feeble attempt to discredit statistical analysis.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
I think every manager has basically said something like this at some point by now... so that makes you think... maybe these people are right...
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
Here is a link to the original article - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/sp...tml?ref=sports
Here are Manuel's plans -
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Come spring training, Manuel said, he planned to do some “serious teaching” with his players, changing their offensive strategy and inculcating the importance of unselfish baseball. He wants them, as well as the organization, to diminish the emphasis on statistics and establish a culture of selflessness that values sharp situational hitting, flawless fundamentals and impervious defense — things that the Angels, perennial contenders, do better than perhaps any team in baseball.
First, the usual desire to improve situational hitting - as if anyone actually knows how to do that.
And then the oft-quoted desire to add that 'intangible element'.
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But Manuel also agreed with General Manager Omar Minaya and the chief operating officer, Jeff Wilpon, who seemed to allude last week that the team was lacking some intangible element.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
metsguy234
I think every manager has basically said something like this at some point by now... so that makes you think... maybe these people are right...
Yeah but what is "this" that he's saying .... All he saying is that they have "to know how to win", again what does that mean ....
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
kenny1234
what Intangible element ? a 1st baseman that can hit for the 1st 50 games of the season? A bullpen? A closer? those kinda intangibles ?
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
gRYFYN1
Yeah but what is "this" that he's saying .... All he saying is that they have "to know how to win", again what does that mean ....
It means they have to know the things that make a team successful... "how to win"
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
metsguy234
It means they have to know the things that make a team successful... "how to win"
Um ?? you mean like scoring more runs that the other guys .... mystery solved ?
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
I don't want to sound rude, and I'm not trying to claim some sort of expertise but...
do any of you all play or have played organized sports?
Most of my experience in is basketball, which is a different type of team game than baseball, but I have to think that those of us who participate in team sports can appreciate-even if we can't quantify-intangibles and the fabled "knowing how to win".
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by metsguy234
I think every manager has basically said something like this at some point by now... so that makes you think... maybe these people are right...
As gRYFYN1 said, WHAT IS HE SAYING? What are they "right" about?
Also, maybe they say it just to shut up the media that asks the same bland questions over and over again.
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Originally Posted by gRYFYN1
Um ?? you mean like scoring more runs that the other guys .... mystery solved ?
You'd think it was that simple, right?
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Originally Posted by
filihok
do any of you all play or have played organized sports?
Not anymore.
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Most of my experience in is basketball, which is a different type of team game than baseball, but I have to think that those of us who participate in team sports can appreciate-even if we can't quantify-intangibles and the fabled "knowing how to win".
You don't have to quantify "knowing how to win" to explain it, and I've never heard one explanation of what it means. What does it mean?
It means nothing as far as I can tell. It's just a cliche. All players "know how to win." It's not like David Eckstein has some magical quality about him that makes him more apt to win, and Adam Dunn is a sad sack of crap who can't comprehend what winning means.
Intangibles like leadership, etc. are a different story. "Knowing how to win" means nothing.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
Tthe sport I follow most, by a wide margin, is football. You hear, especially when talking about QBs or teams that are generally younger than others (either lots of young players in the NFL or lots of fresh & soph in college), a lot of people say the players (or teams) need to learn how to win.
I think it's more a matter of semantics, in that what they mean is the players (most notably those in positions of importance, a la QBs, MLBs, Cs) need to learn how not to lose (see: the Houston Texans game sunday vs the colts where they were throwing up 27-10 with 5 mins to go for no apparent reason).
I'm having a problem coming up with a baseball comparison to something along those lines, but for a comparison to another sport, it would be like a team in basketball knowing that if they're up big late in the game, that they would want to slow it down & use the clock as their friend, and having players who are wise enough to notice that on their own without coaches having to call a TO to point it out to them.
That's what "knowing how to win" means to me, whether it's what managers or coaches mean when they say it, I couldn't tell. And again, if someone can come up with a similar comparison to baseball, feel free to supply it, as I'm too tired to do much more thinking right now
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
The thing is that the dynamics of baseball are entirely different than sports like football and basketball. It's more of a team game made up of a bunch of player vs. player match-ups, and there's no clock, unlike the other sports where each entire team is playing against each other at once, with a time limit.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
Quote:
Originally Posted by
gRYFYN1
Um ?? you mean like scoring more runs that the other guys .... mystery solved ?
No, the Mets scored more runs then the other guys overall, but they didn't know how to do it when it matters...
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
The thing is that the dynamics of baseball are entirely different than sports like football and basketball. It's more of a team game made up of a bunch of player vs. player match-ups, and there's no clock, unlike the other sports where each entire team is playing against each other at once, with a time limit.
I know, hence my issue of coming up with a similar scenario for baseball. The only thing that came to my mind is if pitchers would throw differently via the current setting of the game (inning, score, home/away, etc), but I could be completely off, and don't see how that would involve position players much, if at all.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
metsguy234
No, the Mets scored more runs then the other guys overall, but they didn't know how to do it when it matters...
It matters just as much in April as it does in September.
Also, they did score more runs than their opponents overall, which is why they were a good team this year. It just so happens that there was a better team in their division. This does not mean that the Mets "didn't know how to win." It just means, they weren't the best team in their division.
I just think its silly that people try to attribute winning and losing to some sense of character, when winning and losing comes down to...oh, I don't know...playing baseball.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
etothep
I know, hence my issue of coming up with a similar scenario for baseball. The only thing that came to my mind is if pitchers would throw differently via the current setting of the game (inning, score, home/away, etc), but I could be completely off, and don't see how that would involve position players much, if at all.
Yeah...like I said...in baseball, it's really just a meaningless cliche borrowed from other sports, in an attempt to attribute losing to a character flaw and winning to a sense of "better" character.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
It matters just as much in April as it does in September.
Also, they did score more runs than their opponents overall, which is why they were a good team this year. It just so happens that there was a better team in their division. This does not mean that the Mets "didn't know how to win." It just means, they weren't the best team in their division.
I just think its silly that people try to attribute winning and losing to some sense of character, when winning and losing comes down to...oh, I don't know...playing baseball.
But when more pressure is put on them (Do or die games) they perform poorly...
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
metsguy234
But when more pressure is put on them (Do or die games) they perform poorly...
1) Correlation does not imply causation.
2) I can find just as many such games where they did succeed as you can find where they didn't succeed.
3) Furthermore, it has nothing to do with "knowing how to win."
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
metsguy234
No, the Mets scored more runs then the other guys overall, but they didn't know how to do it when it matters...
1st thats why they were the 4th best team in the NL.
also when does "it matter" ?? Do games only matter in Sept? Aug?
Or more likely to all the games the same ?
Is it more likely that a sloppy bullpen that allowed too many runs and watched too many games slip away?
Or is it the stat geeks who point out the Delgados 726OPS for the 1st half of the season killed them?
Or, as Manuel seems to think, they can "learn to win" maybe "get their uniforms dirty" , "grind out more ABs", and "respect the game" and *poof* the wins will just roll on in?
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
Yeah, I think its that "poof" thing that Manuel believes in. So sorry, Mets fans.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
If I were a Mets fan, I'd be crying right about now.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
KowboyKoop
If I were a Mets fan, I'd be crying right about now.
you mean continue crying?
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
KowboyKoop
If I were a Mets fan, I'd be crying right about now.
Not a Mets fan, but I'll throw in my 2 cents anyway.
First, I think that there is value in players putting the good of the team ahead of their individual statistics--in fact I'm pretty sure of it--and if I thought that was what Manuel meant, I'd be fine with that. But I don't think that's what he means.
His statements also could be taken to mean that the stats guys that the Mets have employed haven't done their jobs very well. I don't know enough about the Mets' internal organization to know if that's true or not, though they've made enough questionable moves that you have to think there might be something to it. But I don't think that's what he meant, either.
What he probably means is that he doesn't believe that statistical analysis has the value that some people think it does. And if that's true, yeah, I'd cry if I was a Mets fan, too.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
dps
First, I think that there is value in players putting the good of the team ahead of their individual statistics--in fact I'm pretty sure of it--and if I thought that was what Manuel meant, I'd be fine with that. But I don't think that's what he means.
This is another concept I never quite understood. While, sure, it speaks better of the player's character if he cares about the team more than his statistics, but, does it really matter? The player that cares about posting good statistics, and does so, is automatically helping his team win. Frankly, I don't really care what the player wants, as long as he's producing wins on the field.
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What he probably means is that he doesn't believe that statistical analysis has the value that some people think it does. And if that's true, yeah, I'd cry if I was a Mets fan, too.
Yeah, that's what it seems like.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
You know, here's an idea.
Maybe rather than scapegoating SABR heads, making up cliches about knowing how to win, etc. etc.
How about having a bullpen that has good pitchers besides Billy Wagner? They're probably in the playoffs if he doesn't go down, but Ayala wasn't that great at closing out games and no one else in that bullpen was useful at all in September.
I doubt there are any SABRmetrics proponents telling Omar Minaya not to get a capable bullpen.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
It matters just as much in April as it does in September.
Also, they did score more runs than their opponents overall, which is why they were a good team this year. It just so happens that there was a better team in their division. This does not mean that the Mets "didn't know how to win." It just means, they weren't the best team in their division.
I just think its silly that people try to attribute winning and losing to some sense of character, when winning and losing comes down to...oh, I don't know...playing baseball.
Now wait a second, here. You get on Jerry Manuel for saying something that doesn't mean anything, and you go and say this? "Playing baseball"? That's your explanation? Well, sure...the Mets would not win as many games if they didn't show up at Shea Stadium and instead went to the bar and knocked back a few. If that's not what you mean, then what exactly do you mean?
I think Manuel is in fact talking about the intangibles, and warning against reading too many statistics to find out what is "wrong" with his team. I mean, the Mets won 89 games this year. They're a good team, but they choked at the end, the same way they did the season before. There is the feeling that they underperformed. Now, it might be just luck of the draw. Statistically, that would be the given reason, because as you said, there's no difference between a game in May and a game in September. Or maybe the cause is something else...something that is not kept as a stat. Maybe they need to train harder, or not stay out all night, or ease off on the pressure on themselves...or maybe, the team requires a different confidence, a different attitude, something that could indeed collectively be called "knowing how to win".
In other words, put down the stat sheet and figure out what the hell's going on. Not that stats aren't important, but they aren't the most important thing in all cases - and this just might be one of those cases.
Heck, what else is the guy supposed to say? "Well, it's luck of the draw that we ended up this way, because all the games are equivalent. So I'm gonna manage them exactly the same way, and wait for the crapshoot at the end of the season. If we win, fine; if we don't, oh well! The Phils or the Marlins just happened to be better."
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
oriole^
Now wait a second, here. You get on Jerry Manuel for saying something that doesn't mean anything, and you go and say this? "Playing baseball"? That's your explanation? Well, sure...the Mets would not win as many games if they didn't show up at Shea Stadium and instead went to the bar and knocked back a few. If that's not what you mean, then what exactly do you mean?
I mean that winning and losing is about how well you play the game, not your sense of character.
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In other words, put down the stat sheet and figure out what the hell's going on. Not that stats aren't important, but they aren't the most important thing in all cases - and this just might be one of those cases.
I think it's pretty obvious what the hell went on with the Mets, as others have said repeatedly in this thread. They blew late-game leads very often because their bullpen sucked outside of Billy Wagner, who missed the latter part of the season.
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Heck, what else is the guy supposed to say? "Well, it's luck of the draw that we ended up this way, because all the games are equivalent. So I'm gonna manage them exactly the same way, and wait for the crapshoot at the end of the season. If we win, fine; if we don't, oh well! The Phils or the Marlins just happened to be better."
"We have to work on holding leads"?
I don't know. As I said:
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Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Also, maybe they say it just to shut up the media that asks the same bland questions over and over again.
I hope that that's why Manuel said these things, and not that he really believes the problem is that they don't "know how to win" and that they have to "win and know how to win and not win with statistical people."
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
I mean that winning and losing is about how well you play the game, not your sense of character.
Cart before the horse. If you don't have character, you generally don't play the game well.
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I think it's pretty obvious what the hell went on with the Mets, as others have said repeatedly in this thread. They blew late-game leads very often because their bullpen sucked outside of Billy Wagner, who missed the latter part of the season.
"We have to work on holding leads"?
I don't know.
I don't, either. As for the Mets' bullpen, here are their IP and ERA+, for all with more IP than Wagner:
Code:
IP ERA+
Aaron Heilman 76.0 79
Joe Smith 63.1 116
Duaner Sanchez 58.1 95
Scott Schoenweis 56.2 124
Pedro Feliciano 53.1 102
Okay, Heilman's kind of a dog, but other than him, that's not too bad. Is this the reason why the Mets lost? Or could it be something else, maybe even - oh, perish the thought! - something that can't be quantified as a number?
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I hope that that's why Manuel said these things, and not that he really believes the problem is that they don't "know how to win" and that they have to "win and know how to win and not win with statistical people."
That's almost certainly part of it. The rest sounds like a legitimate gripe at people who are crawling all over the team with calculators and not once looking at the field.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
i think the answer to why the mets blew it is pretty obvious....john maine
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
oriole^
Cart before the horse. If you don't have character, you generally don't play the game well.
I don't think the two are really all that connected. They CAN be, sure. But, there are and have been plenty of great baseball players who are/were total scumbags that lack character.
Anyway, the real point of this is...when teams "choke" (ie. a stretch of poor play happens to coincide with the end of the season), it's not due to some lack of character, or knowledge, or moral fiber, and likewise when teams win, it's not due to superior character and big hearts.
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Originally Posted by oriole^
I don't, either. As for the Mets' bullpen, here are their IP and ERA+, for all with more IP than Wagner:
Code:
IP ERA+
Aaron Heilman 76.0 79
Joe Smith 63.1 116
Duaner Sanchez 58.1 95
Scott Schoenweis 56.2 124
Pedro Feliciano 53.1 102
Okay, Heilman's kind of a dog, but other than him, that's not too bad. Is this the reason why the Mets lost? Or could it be something else, maybe even -
oh, perish the thought! - something that can't be quantified as a number?
ERA for relievers doesn't really tell the story. It doesn't tell you the inherited runners they let score, for example, or the leads they blew.
And sorry for pulling out a "stathead" stat, but BP's Expected Wins Above Replacement stat (WXRL), models reliever performance way better than any basic stat (ERA, saves, or holds, being the most commonly used). It uses the win expectancy framework:
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WX uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games. Win expectancy looks at the inning, score, and runners on base when the reliever entered the game, and determines the probability of the team winning the game from that point with an average pitcher. Then it looks at how the reliever actually did, and how that changes the probability of winning. The difference between how the reliever improved the chances of winning and how an average pitcher would is his WX.
The Mets were 25th in the major leagues in WXRL, ahead of Texas, Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, and Cleveland. Boston had the lowest WXRL of the playoff teams, and they placed 15th in the majors. 4 of the playoff teams (Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, and both LA teams) were in the top 5. The White Sox, Brewers, and Cubs were 10th, 11th, and 12th, respectively).
The Mets bullpen was terrible.
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Originally Posted by oriole^
That's almost certainly part of it. The rest sounds like a legitimate gripe at people who are crawling all over the team with calculators and not once looking at the field.
Another strawman. No baseball team is going to employ somebody that doesn't watch games.
In fact, nobody would want to work in baseball if they don't watch the games. This mythical creature that has his head buried in statistics and never watches what happens on the field simply does not exist.
Any decently-ran baseball team knows that statistical analysis is NEEDED along with scouting and the like.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
oriole^
Cart before the horse. If you don't have character, you generally don't play the game well.
I don't, either. As for the Mets' bullpen, here are their IP and ERA+, for all with more IP than Wagner:
Code:
IP ERA+
Aaron Heilman 76.0 79
Joe Smith 63.1 116
Duaner Sanchez 58.1 95
Scott Schoenweis 56.2 124
Pedro Feliciano 53.1 102
Okay, Heilman's kind of a dog, but other than him, that's not too bad. Is this the reason why the Mets lost? Or could it be something else, maybe even -
oh, perish the thought! - something that can't be quantified as a number?
That's almost certainly part of it. The rest sounds like a legitimate gripe at people who are crawling all over the team with calculators and not once looking at the field.
those ERA+s aren't very good for relievers. 100 is league average for all pitchers. Well, a starter's ERA and reliever's ERA mean completey different things. A starter with an ERA around 4.25 is a dependable middle of the rotation starter, a reliever with that ERA is giving up a run every other outing and is not reallly dependable. 115 is about average for dependable relievers, which leaves Joe Smith, Scott Schoeneweis, and Wagner. Schoeneweis lefty/righty splits are so bad you really can't even consider him as a regular reliever. That least Wagner and Smith. When Wagner went down, you had Smith as the only reliever left who was dependably average. Ayala got thrown into the closers role, wasn't cut out for it, and that's that.
I'm not SABR geek. I'm much more old school than SABR inclined. But it doesn't take a calculator to figure out that the team just had a bad second half bullpen, and bullpens win divisions. Manuel can say wahtever he wants, it's immaterial until Minaya shores it up.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Another strawman. No baseball team is going to employ somebody that doesn't watch games.
In fact, nobody would want to work in baseball if they don't watch the games. This mythical creature that has his head buried in statistics and never watches what happens on the field simply does not exist.
Any decently-ran baseball team knows that statistical analysis is NEEDED along with scouting and the like.
Exactly
Lets simplify things:
Look at the Mets collapse this year (for the sake of simplicity, lets blame last year solely on Randolph)
What part of their lost division lead would suggest that some sort of misguided SABR principle brought down the Mets?
To me, it's all on the bullpen. I didn't see any other reason and certainly nothing involving SABRmetrics.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Another strawman. No baseball team is going to employ somebody that doesn't watch games.
"Strawman"? You need to get out more. :)
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In fact, nobody would want to work in baseball if they don't watch the games. This mythical creature that has his head buried in statistics and never watches what happens on the field simply does not exist.
Horsebleep. If you have never run into any of these creatures who get in your face and tell you Melvin Mora is the key to the Orioles' success because of these stats they invented last week, you are willfully ignoring the common worst aspects of your chosen pursuit.
Knowing when not to apply the numbers is every bit as important as knowing when to.
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Any decently-ran baseball team knows that statistical analysis is NEEDED along with scouting and the like.
"Needed" does not mean "applicable in all situations". One who quotes numbers in every situation, to the point that they can't fathom one where it isn't applicable, shouldn't be listened to when the numbers do come out, either. Their judgment just frankly isn't that great.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
oriole^
"Strawman"? You need to get out more. :)
??
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A Straw Man argument is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position. To "set up a straw man," one describes a position that superficially resembles an opponent's actual view, yet is easier to refute, then attributes that position to the opponent.
The statistics obsessed nerd that doesn't watch games and cares only about numbers and thinks baseball games are played by number-compiling robots is a creation of the "anti-statistics" side of the argument. It misrepresents the "pro-statistics" side.
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Originally Posted by oriole^
Horsebleep. If you have never run into any of these creatures who get in your face and tell you Melvin Mora is the key to the Orioles' success because of these stats they invented last week, you are willfully ignoring the common worst aspects of your chosen pursuit
Nope, I've never ran into that person, and I'm not willfully ignoring anything. I've honestly never seen this person. Show me them.
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Originally Posted by oriole^
Knowing when not to apply the numbers is every bit as important as knowing when to.
Sure. I'm having trouble thinking of a situation in which the numbers shouldn't be considered though (Note: This isn't saying that numbers should always be used to make the final decision. It's saying that, if there are numbers available for the situation at hand, they should be taken into the decision-making process.).
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriole^
"Needed" does not mean "applicable in all situations". One who quotes numbers in every situation, to the point that they can't fathom one where it isn't applicable, shouldn't be listened to when the numbers do come out, either. Their judgment just frankly isn't that great.
See above.
Also, regarding the Mets again, see here. Even using a simple stat like ERA, the Mets were 23rd in the majors in reliever ERA.
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
7th in starters' ERA and 23rd in relievers' ERA? Ouch!
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Re: Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Sure. I'm having trouble thinking of a situation in which the numbers shouldn't be considered though (Note: This isn't saying that numbers should always be used to make the final decision. It's saying that, if there are numbers available for the situation at hand, they should be taken into the decision-making process.).
I should probably clarify this.
The numbers should be ignored when it's quite obvious they mean nothing (like a player's statistics in day games on Thursdays).
