Re: Top 10: Moves The Yankees Should Have Made
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pavelb1
No. Bay's OPS+ 133...Nady's OPS+ 127
Bay's a little faster. Strikes out more. What exactly am i missing here?
You're missing that what decides who is a better player or not is NOT one season.
Xavier Nady is a slightly better than league average hitter who had a fluke first half of the season driven by a high BABIP. His performance with the Yankees - .268/.320/.474, 108 OPS+ - is right in line with his career rates. After the trade, he regressed to his norm. His high BABIP-driven batting average with the Pirates prior to the trade gave him far and away the best season of his career.
Bay had a horrible 2007, likely due to playing through a knee injury. His 2008 performance is right in line with his 2004-2006 performance.
When determining who's the better player, you have to discern as best as you can the player's true talent level, not his performance over one season. Bay's true talent level is that of a roughly 130 OPS+ hitter. Nady's is roughly of a 105 OPS+ hitter.
Re: Top 10: Moves The Yankees Should Have Made
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pavelb1
And last year Bay was horrible (for him)....I'm of the opinion what we saw of them this year is what we're likely to see for the next 4 years.
Yes, very likely, what we saw of Bay this year is what we will see going forward, and that's right in line with what he did prior to 2007.
Nady, though, is a different story. What we saw from him in his time with New York is likely what we will see going forward, and that's something much worse than Jason Bay. Unless you really think that Nady suddenly at the age of 29 took a huge step forward and became a .330 hitter, and his time with New York was just a fluke, and not a regression to his norm.
Re: Top 10: Moves The Yankees Should Have Made
Whoever looked up the Arod stats for that article confused batting average with on base percentage, and further confused "runners in scoring position" with "men on base" evidently. This was Arod's OBP and home runs hit in 2008:
.401 and 23 HR with Bases Empty
.385 and 12 HR with Men On Base
.406 and 8 HR with Runners in scoring Position
On base percentage, not batting average. For 2008 he hit .271 with RISP, and .329 with no one on base. Its true that he did not produce up to his own standards with men in scoring position. For his career he has a .303 batting average with RISP, and
.302 with the bases empty.
Re: Top 10: Moves The Yankees Should Have Made
I agree with 9, 6, 5, 3 and 1
Re: Top 10: Moves The Yankees Should Have Made
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
Yes, very likely, what we saw of Bay this year is what we will see going forward, and that's right in line with what he did prior to 2007.
Nady, though, is a different story. What we saw from him in his time with New York is likely what we will see going forward, and that's something much worse than Jason Bay. Unless you really think that Nady suddenly at the age of 29 took a huge step forward and became a .330 hitter, and his time with New York was just a fluke, and not a regression to his norm.
Based on pure, stupid gut-instinct....when Nady becomes the starting LF for the 2009 New York Yankees, his game will be in line with what we saw in his first month in NY.
Re: Top 10: Moves The Yankees Should Have Made
Here's another guy who had a season similar to ARod. This guy's 1965 season is comparable to ARod in 2008, as follows (BA-OBP-SLP-HR-OPS+):
ARod .302 .392 .573 35 148
Other Guy .318 379 .560 32 160
While Arod only hit .271 (8 HR) with RISP, and .329 (23 HR) with bases empty,
The Other guy hit .270 (6 HR) with RISP, and .327 (20 HR) with bases empty.
I wonder if everyone thought that the Braves should get rid of Hank Aaron after his "unproductive" 1965 season?
Re: Top 10: Moves The Yankees Should Have Made
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Swampdog
Here's another guy who had a season similar to ARod. This guy's 1965 season is comparable to ARod in 2008, as follows (BA-OBP-SLP-HR-OPS+):
ARod .302 .392 .573 35 148
Other Guy .318 379 .560 32 160
While Arod only hit .271 (8 HR) with RISP, and .329 (23 HR) with bases empty,
The Other guy hit .270 (6 HR) with RISP, and .327 (20 HR) with bases empty.
I wonder if everyone thought that the Braves should get rid of Hank Aaron after his "unproductive" 1965 season?
What Aaron was doing in his day and age was pretty rare though.
