The Rays..can they survive?

According to MLB the Tampa Bay Rays have sold 51% of the available home seats this year. I watched last nights great game and saw empty seats behind home plate. They have been in first since the All Star game. What are the people in the area waiting for? Even playing as well as they are, late inning wins, pennant race, exciting young players, they still can't put fannies in seats. What happens when its time to sign some of these guys? You really have to wonder where the team will be in 5 years. You have to wonder where the game will be. You can't have a few big market teams always being in contention, I'm a life long Red Sox fan but even I see the danger in that. The Yankees will not make the play-offs this year:) but those fans know it will not be years for them to rebuild, just this off season. The Royals are still waiting for the second coming of George Brett. How long can MLB count on those fans to hope for wild card run sometime soon and spend their hard earned money on tickets? Can baseball survive with 30 teams?

They have a long loosing record. A win, even just a playoff appearance, will gain them tons of fans, but people tend to not notice until the team makes the playoffs.

I remember becoming a NJ Devils fan. We moved to Jersey when I was 13, back in '83. In the fall of 87, my dad scored some tickets to a pre-season game, and I was hooked. Well, that was the season that the Devs finally put it together, and I remember all though the regular season the stadium was virtually empty. Come playoff time, my dad suddenly had trouble getting tickets (luckily we were partial season ticket holders though, so we got some. We just didn't get extras). Continental Area was packed to the rafters every game we went to...

I'm just saying, it's way to early to be writing them off. Wait and see.
Oh, and Baseball can definitely survive with 30 teams. There's no doubt about it in my mind. As a matter of fact, I think it's time to expand again.
What baseball can't survive is many more owners like Loria...
(or the old Tampa ownership/management, for that matter)

Agreed with ohms.

You've got to remember baseball in Florida. The Marlins won 2x and both times had the tablecloth ripped out from under them. Tampa Bay was always a joke and no consideration went into them until about 3 years ago.

TB and Miami are both huge population centers. Miami needs to commit to a new stadium and new look. They are actually finally taking the steps

TB is a hard sell. Most of their fan base for years was retiring workers from other cities. IE, lots of Yanks, Sox, Mets, Cubs, etc fans. Lately though, the local fan base is growing. They need to make their move now. A playoff run would/should win a lot of fans. I do think they can survive. Remember, we asked the same about the Rockies last year.

I had always naively supposed that the teams down Florida way played their games in air-conditioned stadiums, given the humidity level of the summers down there. Apparently, this is not so

The one time that I sampled a Floridian summer, and ventured away from the pool; the sea; or the air-conditioning, I was unable to walk a block on the street, it was so sticky..

I marvel that anyone could sit out in the open, given such oppressive heat, let alone play ball in it!

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TB is a hard sell. Most of their fan base for years was retiring workers from other cities. IE, lots of Yanks, Sox, Mets, Cubs, etc fans.

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Everyone always makes such a big deal about this, but it bull. Their fans... half the job is done already! if the team is any good then they'll be fans of the local team, and quickly. I never understood this whole line of argument.

I moved down to Orlando from Boston, and was a die-hard Sox fan. I went from seeing about 2,000-3,000 Rays fans at games back in '06, to now FINALLY being outnumbered in this last series. Rays to Sox fans was about 75/25 at this last series, and the stadium was the most full I've ever seen.

I grew to like and support the Rays, and I am actually happy they have fans, finally. Many of them are a bit crass, and some aren't knowledgeable about baseball; but any start is okay. I just really, really wish they hadn't decided on cowbells as their answer to the rally monkey. Distributing the most annoying noisemaker to an entire fanbase, and their kids, makes some sections a real headache.

Seeing them go to it the past few days, without Crawford or Baldelli or Gomes, makes me think they can survive.

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Originally Posted by ohms_law

Everyone always makes such a big deal about this, but it bull. Their fans... half the job is done already! if the team is any good then they'll be fans of the local team, and quickly. I never understood this whole line of argument.

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agreed

I don't really know if baseball should expand. I don't know if the pitching talent can support any more teams.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

I don't really know if baseball should expand. I don't know if the pitching talent can support any more teams.

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For what it's worth, I did a two team expansion prior to the 2012 season in Mogul, and offense skyrocketed, :p

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

For what it's worth, I did a two team expansion prior to the 2012 season in Mogul, and offense skyrocketed, :p

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lol. the reall questin is where to... Indy MAYBE. Can texas really support a 3rd team, I have no idea. Dont give me this Vegas they are not going there.

If the Rays win even one playoff series and the team isn't dismantled like the Marlins teams were (it won't be, they seem very committed to building a winner), the fan base should grow significantly.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

For what it's worth, I did a two team expansion prior to the 2012 season in Mogul, and offense skyrocketed, :p

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That's within the BM model (no disrespect here intended) as it stands.The IRL sport/game itself (ie talent pool*) has expanded & the MLB has emphasized international development on par with nothing that existed 20 years ago (academies in Latin America/Oceania & even in Europe).Also there is a "lot of "talent" that is not used & could be because of protectionism (thankfully Rule V stops it to a certain extent) & has shown certain players are MLB ready but "blocked" (Soria is a nice example of this;)


Overall I think the MLB could support 2 extra teams thanks to the influx of "outside" the US players - the major issue,IMO,is not talent BUT Finances - ie finding the Cities (US or maybe abroad),an owner willing to spend 400 million+ & a fan base.

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Originally Posted by ohms_law

Everyone always makes such a big deal about this, but it bull. Their fans... half the job is done already! if the team is any good then they'll be fans of the local team, and quickly. I never understood this whole line of argument.

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

I moved down to Orlando from Boston, and was a die-hard Sox fan. I went from seeing about 2,000-3,000 Rays fans at games back in '06, to now FINALLY being outnumbered in this last series. Rays to Sox fans was about 75/25 at this last series, and the stadium was the most full I've ever seen.

I grew to like and support the Rays, and I am actually happy they have fans, finally. Many of them are a bit crass, and some aren't knowledgeable about baseball; but any start is okay. I just really, really wish they hadn't decided on cowbells as their answer to the rally monkey. Distributing the most annoying noisemaker to an entire fanbase, and their kids, makes some sections a real headache.

Seeing them go to it the past few days, without Crawford or Baldelli or Gomes, makes me think they can survive.

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Teams like the 2 Florida franchises have a major problem because of demographics (ie Aging Population WHO have the "money" to pay DAILY to see the games) rather than actual population.Those Aging guys have teams they "love" more than the Rays/Marlins & will support them rather than the 2 franchises.Just because you live in Florida doesn't stop you supporting the Sox or the Yankees.

The aim & goal is to INTEREST the kids & build from that way (like McDonalds did,lol - the kids want to see ball Dad has to take them....) . Luckily the area has a high Hispanic element who have a "natural" affinity to Baseball & both franchises have gone "multi lingual" but there success or failure in a "natural' Football state is by "doping" the kids....



* now there are Dutch/Brazilian & even Italians in the MILB who are considered prospects rather than "fillers on top of the Latin American & Asian talent that have been used in the last 30 or so years.

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Originally Posted by FRENCHREDSOX

That's within the BM model (no disrespect here intended) as it stands.The IRL sport/game itself (ie talent pool) has expanded & the MLB has emphasized international development on par with nothing that existed 20 years ago (academies in Latin America/Oceania & even in Europe).Also there is a "lot of "talent" that is not used & could be because of protectionism (thankfully Rule V stops it to a certain extent) & has shown certain players are MLB ready but "blocked" (Soria is a nice example of this;)

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:confused:

Expansion always comes with an increase in offense, at least historically, and I was just commenting on how the same happens in Mogul (using a manual expansion draft, but I'm sure it's even worse without running a draft), as the "pitching talent" comment made me think of. I wasn't commenting on whether or not MLB could add two more teams successfully.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

:confused:

Expansion always comes with an increase in offense, at least historically, and I was just commenting on how the same happens in Mogul (using a manual expansion draft, but I'm sure it's even worse without running a draft), as the "pitching talent" comment made me think of. I wasn't commenting on whether or not MLB could add two more teams successfully.

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Nor was I HGM I was simply concluding your "results" are based on the input (which are limited within the BM framework ie the players' you have ~3000 in your mog.file) & thus MAYBE your results over evaluate the actual increase in offense because of this.

Whereas IRL expansion has 10,000's of "possible" draftees which "us" roster makers don't consider or players' simply "jump" up the ladder - eg Clayton Richards or a Pablo Sandoval WHICH neither of us had/have in our OD rosters but are now valid members of their respective teams & are starters 6 month on....or players which "deserve" a shot but are classified as AAAA players & could help eg Pena of TBD was 1 when he was with the Yankees/Red Sox in 06 BEFORE rebounding in Tampa or Tatis this year.

What I said is that the talent pool is EVEN larger than it was in the '69 expansion & even the last expansion.

The talent pool increased when Robinson was accepted,it re increased when Latinos were introduced & has again expanded as the MLB has developed outside its natural frontiers of the North American continent.An increased talent pool MAY mean that the introduction of new teams will be less detrimental to the overall level.

I'm confused. I wasn't saying that an increase in offense is detrimental. I was just saying...it happens.

But okay.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I'm confused.

But okay.

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LOL its not confusing,HGM your results are based on BM "stock" each team has 60/70 players +6 draftees but IRL their choice is way way larger - some aren't classified as prospects BUT do become MLB regulars eg Richards,some are AAAA who are better than AAAA eg Pena '06 to Pena today (or Tatis in NYM),+ those who have "breakout" (Sandoval) + those "who fly under the radar".

You & I do fine work but have what 15% of all prospects in MILB & as I said expansion NOW has more & more players' available than 40 years ago & those players' are better "groomed" for baseball thanks to tournaments (like Olympics/WBC or World Championships) or even MLB sponsored leagues like Australian Summer League/DSL/Mexican Summer League etc.

Means that players' are ready quicker & better for professional Baseball THAN 20 or EVEN 20 years ago but no longer just US based but also Aussies,Dominicans & even Italians!

Thus possibly exapnsion MAY not have AS LARGE a hike in offence as predicted in your BM sim results . ;)

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I'm confused. I wasn't saying that an increase in offense is detrimental. I was just saying...it happens.

But okay.

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Yes it happens BUT your results MAYBE higher than WHAT would IRL occur .

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Originally Posted by FRENCHREDSOX

Yes it happens BUT your results MAYBE higher than WHAT would IRL occur .

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I don't know, maybe. In real life, each expansion did come with an increase in offense, but the amount of the increase varied each time.

Maybe watered-down pitching could and should be countered by going back to 4 man rotations and using fewer specialist relievers.

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Originally Posted by FRENCHREDSOX

LOL its not confusing,HGM your results are based on BM "stock" each team has 60/70 players +6 draftees but IRL their choice is way way larger - some aren't classified as prospects BUT do become MLB regulars eg Richards,some are AAAA who are better than AAAA eg Pena '06 to Pena today (or Tatis in NYM),+ those who have "breakout" (Sandoval) + those "who fly under the radar".

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As I said, I ran a manual expansion draft, so the teams weren't full of brand new, poor created players. Yes, it's not real life. I wasn't trying to prove anything. Just saying that the draft I ran produced an increase in offense, just like expansions in real life did.

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Thus possibly exapnsion MAY not have AS LARGE a hike in offence as predicted in your BM sim results . ;)

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I don't even know if it was a LARGE increase. It was just noticeable. And in real life, the offensive increase was noticeable in each expansion year as well.

Again, wasn't trying to prove anything or draw any conclusions from my game. Just posting an observation...so, I'm not sure exactly what point you're trying to make.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

As I said, I ran a manual expansion draft, so the teams weren't full of brand new, poor created players. Yes, it's not real life. I wasn't trying to prove anything. Just saying that the draft I ran produced an increase in offense, just like expansions in real life did.


I don't even know if it was a LARGE increase. It was just noticeable. And in real life, the offensive increase was noticeable in each expansion year as well.

Again, wasn't trying to prove anything or draw any conclusions from my game. Just posting an observation...so, I'm not sure exactly what point you're trying to make.

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It was an observation HGM that is all ;) & that BM is "not really" suited for expansion drafts even with yours (or anyone's rosters for that matter) as it simply thins out an already limited supply of players' which is far deeper than any rosters we can use/provide.


Personally I think that the AL needs 2 teams to really equilibrate the 2 leagues,as well as realignment (still believe that Texas has no right to be in West).

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Teams like the 2 Florida franchises have a major problem because of demographics (ie Aging Population WHO have the "money" to pay DAILY to see the games) rather than actual population.Those Aging guys have teams they "love" more than the Rays/Marlins & will support them rather than the 2 franchises.Just because you live in Florida doesn't stop you supporting the Sox or the Yankees.

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Oh, bull.

yeah they for a while

Really, the best test of the Rays chances isn't going to answerable this year. We'll see how they're doing NEXT season in terms of ticket sales, and that will give some indication of what the potential for this franchise is going to be. Of course, this is assuming they don't pull a Marlins and trade everything away in the offseason.

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Originally Posted by ohms_law

Oh, bull.

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That is your assessment,Ohms.Funnily,I believe that people are less "fickle" than you - that you BUILD up support of a team over time & remain supportive of that team WHATEVER happens (or nearly) - That the Cowboys' are America's team.That is why the Yankees are the best supported club in the US,that there is a Red Sox or Cub nation who don't all live in Mass. or North Chicago.That is also why I said both Florida franchises (& rightly so) is to:

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Originally Posted by FRENCHREDSOX

The aim & goal is to INTEREST the kids & build from that way (like McDonalds did,lol - the kids want to see ball Dad has to take them....) . Luckily the area has a high Hispanic element who have a "natural" affinity to Baseball & both franchises have gone "multi lingual" but there success or failure in a "natural' Football state is by "doping" the kids....

.

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is n't that the definition of a "fan" & "fan base" ?

This year the Rays are at 1.658 million fans (up by 411,000) that is an improvement but again I re-iterate & undoubtedly you disagree - that demographics & wealth distribution do matter concerning Florida which is a traditional Football state.

Lastly,correct me if I am wrong,I believe you moved around a bit,did you support your "local team" whernever/wherever you were or did you keep your allegiance throughout those moves to 1 team ?

1st the fans were not affraid
Then They were putrified
knowing they could now have baseball by their side
The had spent so many nights thinking that the move was wrong
They could just flip on the TV and Yes network was so strong........

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Lastly,correct me if I am wrong,I believe you moved around a bit,did you support your "local team" whernever/wherever you were or did you keep your allegiance throughout those moves to 1 team ?

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There was no "local team" where I moved. Hence, no local TV broadcasts, no local paper coverage, etc... which is the point that I'm making. If you're in the market, and a baseball fan at all, 1/2 - 3/4 of the work has already been done for the franchise. All they have to do, at that point, is to put together a competitive team. They don't have to sell that fan on the game in the first place...

Anyway, everyone makes this huge thing about Florida's retirement population. Don't believe all the hype. Yes, it's a large population, but the fact is that most Floridians are not retirees.

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Originally Posted by ohms_law

Anyway, everyone makes this huge thing about Florida's retirement population. Don't believe all the hype. Yes, it's a large population, but the fact is that most Floridians are not retirees.

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So ? There being rich "retirees" who support another team will cut into their fan base,that is a fact also.

I am not saying they shouldn't be successful but they did start with a handicap - hopefully with both teams getting new stadia & being successful on the field they will grow in popularity.

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Everyone always makes such a big deal about this, but it bull. Their fans... half the job is done already! if the team is any good then they'll be fans of the local team, and quickly. I never understood this whole line of argument.

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What the hell are you talking about? When the Yanks or Sox play in TB, take a look at the stands. Still at least 60% empty. When anybody else is down there, it is worse. TB does not have a fan base. Baseball does not work on the "if you build it, they will come premise".

Argue till the cows come home. Maybe they will get fans some day.

When you build a team that is successful and maintains that success, you'll get fans. Ohms is right.

That is actually not true. The Atlanta Braves are the closest living proof. By making the playoffs for ( Many years, forgot how many), the fans grew ambivalent to the point that they stopped going. The more years Cox got them to the playoffs, the less people went to games.

It's not how much a team wins. Its how good the fans are. Pre 2004, the Red Sox still sold out almost every game. Cubs still do to. Why? Its not winning.

It's part winning, and part marketing.

Houston, you hit on the golden word: Marketing.

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Originally Posted by grasshopper

Houston, you hit on the golden word: Marketing.

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Yes, but, the key is, you need SOMETHING to market...so winning IS the first step. It's not the only part in it, so it's not as simple as "winning equals fans", but without the winning, even the best marketing exec would have trouble selling a team to fans.

We could argue this into the ground. As of 1996, the Orioles were not a joke. They were a historied team who had just got the newest, best, and most modern stadium. I was there to watch drunken Jim Leyritz drive one over the wall to bring the Yanks to the playoffs. It was amazing.

Anyway, Im off topic. They had a huge fan base, a new stadium, Cal Ripken and steroidal Brady Anderson. How could they go wrong? Within 2 years, super lawyer/ litigator Peter Angelos had bought the team. He could care less whether they won or lost, as long as his name was the headline.

They are now the laughing stock of the AL East.

I think ownership and marketing go way farther than winning.

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Originally Posted by grasshopper

That is actually not true. The Atlanta Braves are the closest living proof. By making the playoffs for ( Many years, forgot how many), the fans grew ambivalent to the point that they stopped going. The more years Cox got them to the playoffs, the less people went to games.

It's not how much a team wins. Its how good the fans are. Pre 2004, the Red Sox still sold out almost every game. Cubs still do to. Why? Its not winning.

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I'll tell you this right now, Atlanta is one of the worst "fair-weather fan" areas in the U.S. Anyone see the Hawks? How they had an extremely hard time getting people to come during the regular season, then during the playoffs they are suddenly selling out. Or how about the Falcons. When they were good, they would get a lot of fans to come to the games, but now, it's awful. Or even go to the Thrashers. When they're good, they sell out, when they bad (even if it is a season after being good), they have bad attendance.

4Life, didnt mean to single out your city, but they are a case study for a winning baseball team in a large market that cant get fans to come to games. (Dodgers are the worst btw) Outside of BB, I'll take your word for it since I dont know crap about Georgia except college FB.

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

I moved down to Orlando from Boston, and was a die-hard Sox fan. I went from seeing about 2,000-3,000 Rays fans at games back in '06, to now FINALLY being outnumbered in this last series. Rays to Sox fans was about 75/25 at this last series, and the stadium was the most full I've ever seen.

I grew to like and support the Rays, and I am actually happy they have fans, finally. Many of them are a bit crass, and some aren't knowledgeable about baseball; but any start is okay. I just really, really wish they hadn't decided on cowbells as their answer to the rally monkey. Distributing the most annoying noisemaker to an entire fanbase, and their kids, makes some sections a real headache.

Seeing them go to it the past few days, without Crawford or Baldelli or Gomes, makes me think they can survive.

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Ah...a guy who's actually been there - tell me. AOW, were you physically comfortable in the stands? Did you experience much humidity?

Atlanta is not a model to look at for this question. The Braves have the lowest Win-Curve in all of sports. The're an extreme outlier.

I'm not sure what the point of bringing up the Orioles and Angelos is. Running a fanchise badly leads to poor returns. Agreed. so?

There are many retirees in Florida in general. This is a strength of the market, not a weakness. All that needs to be done in order to tap that market is to put together a product which that demographic is willing to support. A comfortable stadium that is easily accessible and a winning team (or at least a team that is capable of winning) are the first steps.

I honestly don't get this whole topic, though. Is there some sort of vested interest in having teams in Florida fail that I'm not aware of?