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lol
:rolleyes:
The whole 5 and 7 game series' are kinda flukey anyway. A terrible team can beat a great team 3 out of 5 or 4 outta 7 times.
what do you propose? whats enough to equal it out? 9, 11,13, 21?Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
Nothing. The point still remains that the playoffs don't provide any determination of the "best" team. The regular season certainly does... the playoffs determine the winner though, which in the end is all that really matters anyway.
As Ohms said, 5 and 7 is fine. But because Team A beats Team B in the 11th inning of game 7 in no way means Team A is better.
Unless they actually are ;).Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
From the Boston side of this, how does everyone think Bay will react to being in a pennant race? Because how Bay reacts to being in this pennant race will be huge in really evaluating this trade.
Personally, I think he'll do great in the pennant race. I think he'll be extremely motivated to be in a pennant race and he'll play just as well, if not better, than he has all season. I think he'll embrace the Boston spotlight and do very, very well with the team.
I think he'll play better than Manny. Which kills me. :(
well honestly how he reacts "should be minimal " now that he has 6+ years of MLB play/clutch at bats etc.Question is how the FANS react if/when he slumps & how he handles EXTRA baseball fervour in Boston (Manny's great let down & "supposed" cause of his "Mannyness".Quote:
Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG
The more I look at the deal the MORE I dont understand the Dodgers' motivation - OK a 2 month free rental of one of the most productive batter's in the game but giving up a 24 year old top prospect & their 2006 1st rounder seems awfully a lot FOR A POSSIBLE CAUSE of distraction....Still say the Pirates did great - cut costs,got 2 starters,a nice set up man & Morris - may compete in 2010+
I got in a terrible debate this afternoon with a Yankee fan who screamed that the Boston ownership just cursed the Red Sox for another 86 years trading away our best hitter.
But Jason Bay is not 119,000 dollars I said. He is not a musical.
Some Sox fans have jumped ship for the season. I'm not a huge sox fan but I have family in Cape Cod so I have some tearing to them.
I think the trade will equal out. Jason Bay is a damn good hitter. We will see if he can impact the race for the AL East, I think he will.
I think what the Yankees did was smart, too. I think the Rays didn't get it done but they are playing pretty well as is so we'll see if they can keep it up.
All I know, if the Yanks make the playoffs I'm out 20 bucks. So Go Sox, Twins, Rays, and White Sox.
One of those teams needs to win the wild card.
It is a 5 horse race for 3 spots - Tampa came out worst of this simply because they didn't address their major need - a right handed bat - White Sox & Twins should actually not figure for WILD CARD because of the teams in the CENTRAL but the Yankees will I believe.Quote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
Basically,IMO,it will be a "war of attrition" where the team that loses will be the one whose weak link will fold -
Red Sox - Pen (got weaker with the Hansen move),Manny's experience & "hole" at #5
Yankees - Catching (as said elsewhere Pudge is NO better this year than Molina & is no Posada at the plate),Pitching (Age of Moose/Pettite + #5 spot)
Tampa - youth,inexperience & pressure
Twins - already playing above expectations - holes offensively at SS/CF
White Sox - player overload (now with Griffey) & lack of production from 1B/DH
I get the mlb experience, but whens the last time a Pirate had a clutch AB? 12 years ago at least?Quote:
Originally Posted by FRENCHREDSOX
I agree wholeheartedly with the "war of attrition" but I do still believe the Rays will shock the world and be the team in the playoffs. Maybe it's false hope but I think it can happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by FRENCHREDSOX
The Twins I think will win the Central and the White Sox will drop off and hope for next year which they can put together.
Basically my playoffs in the AL will be the Angels, Red Sox, Rays, and Twins.
With the Angels winning the pennant on their pitching. Because I have always followed a system. Hitting sells tickets, pitching wins championships.
And J.D. Drew can fill a 5 spot pretty good. He has been decent this season.
This is true but it Pitching in September/October that does that - don't have to look too far back (eg Sox & Rockies last year) to see that September is the key.Quote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
Undoubtedly the Angels are the team - the team of July - but in 2 months' all that can (& will change) thanks to injuries,form & most importantly confidence.At the moment the Angels' are "untouchable" but maybe they have peaked too early ;)
This is true. Predictions are useless as I cannot for see the future.
Should be an interesting september to say the least...
Teams that have depth will have a "natural" advantage & as I said above it is the weak link that will determine who will make it too the playoffs - post that it is luck,form & experience* which will be called upon.Quote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
* one of the reasons why teams deal for Vets at deadline too
Because the Sox didn't have everything that PIT wanted or wouldn't part with it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Sox Fan 734
LAD needs some outfield pop so they chipped in two guys along with Bostons two guys for Bay, Then Boston basically pays Manny off and gives his contract to the Dodgers as thanks.:cool:
I also said that I wasn't a hardcore fan at all, and that I'm really just rooting for the Diamondbacks to do well, and that I like what they got there.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsoxRockies
:confused: WHAT?!?! ??!??!Quote:
Originally Posted by FRENCHREDSOX
From your beloved Baseball prospectus ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Quote:
Certainly, Rodriguez is an upgrade for the Yankees, for whom Jose Molina has been a hole in the lineup.
When you look deeper, though, you can see that this trade isn't quite that special for the Yankees, although the price was right, and it wasn't that bad for the Tigers, who won't miss Rodriguez and were desperately in need of bullpen help. Consider that Rodriguez and Molina are very similar players in type: excellent defensive catchers with little speed, middling power, and a tendency to swing at everything. Molina hasn't hit lefties very well this year, but he has a fair track record of doing so—.268/.311/.405 for his career, and over .300 with good power since 2004. It is a skill he possesses, and in a platoon role, would be acceptable.
Pudge has produced nine runs above replacement this season in 328 PAs, Molina five runs below in 218. Over the last two months, the offensive upgrade for the Yankees won't be worth more than that 14-run gap, and with the defense a wash, this trade is a one-win upgrade, not nearly enough to get excited about. Rodriguez makes the number-eight spot in the lineup a little better, especially against righties, but the idea that adding him is a coup is misguided, largely because he has a reputation and Molina doesn't. The skill sets are similar.
The Yankees didn't really need a guy like Pudge. They needed a left-handed-hitting catcher with some OBP skills.
That does not say that Pudge is no better than Molina. It says that the upgrade isn't as gigantic as some people think.
This year:
Molina: .229 .279 .307
Pudge: .295 .338 .417
... just saying.
Let me chime in a little here.
First of all... Pudge is a pretty damn large upgrade, chief. He is a .295, .338, .416 hitter, while Molina is a .226, .278, ..303 hitter. Now, I don't expect Pudge to dominate here, but I see him maintaining his current stat line.
Now, for the Manny trade.
I think that the Sawx got raped in this deal. They gave up Moss, Hansen, and Manny and got Jason Bay back. While Jason Bay is a very very solid hitter, he is no Manny. Manny is capable of putting up better numbers. Bay is a solid power hitter, but nothing too special (30+ HR's only 2/5 years). Manny has done it 12/15 years. Jason Bay has NEVER been in a pennant race, Manny of course, has. You know how some players crumble under the spotlight, under the pressure; Well, Bay has never really had that spotlight on him, or that pressure that he shall see in Boston. Sure, Jason Bay is much better at defense, but it will probably take him a little time to get used to that big green wall out in LF, while Manny always played it perfectly. Sure, Manny has had a few instances where he hasn't hustled at his fullest, and that will upgrade Boston there. But all things said, this is a downgrade for the Boston Red Sox; albeit, not a major downgrade, but thus, a downgrade.
You forgot the schedule.
The Yankees have the worst schedule, look at the teams they're going to play, followed by the Rays, and the Sox have the easiest schedule, relatively speaking.
Don't get sucked into Manny's offensive history. He's not THAT great of a hitter anymore (as in, he's not what he used to be). He's still a VERY good hitter, but Jason Bay is only ever so slightly less of a hitter at this point in their careers.
Bay had an off year last season, easily attributable to playing with an injury.
His line since 2005, not including last year, is roughly .292/.396/.528. Manny Ramirez over 2007-2008 is .297/.392/.508. That fails to account for some things, though, like that Bay has been in the easier league, and Ramirez in the easier ballpark. They're both roughly 135 OPS+ hitters at this point in their careers.
The only team that really strikes fear into me when the Yankees play them are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (or whatever they are called).Quote:
Originally Posted by m4rk6
4 @ Tex
3 @ LAA... Hopefully we can win 1 :p
3 @ Min
3 vs KC
3 @ TOR
3 @ BAL
3 vs BOS
3 vs TOR
1 @ DET
3 @ TB
3 @ SEA
3 @ LAA... Again, hopefully, we can win 1 :p
3 vs TB
4 vs CWS
3 vs BAL
3 @ TOR
3 @ BOS
Again, only LAA scare me. I feel that the Yanks can win everyone of these series, but the BOS series' will be tough.
Well, I guess we'll find out, huh? The major thing is that if the Red Sox do make the playoffs, will Jason Bay replace Manny there? Doubtful, but who knows. (Hopefully Bay will suck in the regular season and post season :D)Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
If Jason Bay is indeed a similar offensive player than Manny (I'd say Manny's a very slightly better hitter, but it's a slight enough difference that Bay makes up for it on the basepaths), than yes, Bay will replace Manny in the playoffs. Bay is a very good hitter, and the playoffs won't change that (and if he hits poorly this postseason, don't be so quick to attribute it to him being a weak-willed dummy that can't hit under pressure, because it'd be like 25 at bats, and that's not nearly enough to make any judgment on).
By the way, Manny Ramirez in the playoffs for his career - .269/.376/.513. Yep, worse than he's done the last 2 years, the worst 2 of his career.
And Bay's the better fielder - by far.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Just caught up with this story. This is blasphemous...this is madness...! (Someone pick up the line here!)
... about time?Quote:
Originally Posted by oriole^
Fair point...but it seems many agree with this yet everytime I complain that a 'one game play in tiebreaker' is about the DUMBEST thing that can be done everyones against it??Quote:
Originally Posted by ohms_law
They play 162 games, through ups and downs, through injuries and trades, and it all comes down to a tiebreaker play in game? One game, doesn't matter of whos injured or unavailable....and then it screws up the teams rotation for the playoffs!! Surely after 162 games they can find a stat (wins head to head for starters) that would break a tie and not leave it totally up to being lucky that your rotation is set for your ace to start.
OK a quick look at the lineup I think could (or should) be out there this weekend
Pedroia
Youk
JD Drew
Ortiz
Lowell
Bay
Lowrie
Tek
Ellsbury/Crisp
I am in favor of moving Drew back to 3 and Ortiz to 4. The only thing about that change is they would be vulnerable to a lefty/lefty matchup. If this was a GREAT concern of Francona, he could put Bay 3, but the numbers Drew put up at the 3, he and the numbers put up by Bay could surpass what Manny has done in the past.
About as silly as a game seven, yeah.Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
LOL. I know it's rare and mostly unheard of, but rarely, very rarely, the sum amount of 2 peoples efforts is greater than the one. It's a statistical oddity, but sometimes...Quote:
Originally Posted by cartman00000001
:D
I dont' know how we went from manny to the 7 game series not being long enough argument, but since were there....Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
I think its 'sillier', speaking of the one game tiebreaker. At least in a seven game series one gets to go through the rotation, and the more games played the better chance that the better team will come out on top. I have no problem with a recommendation to make the series longer, but the season would probably have to be shortened as they go too late into October and even into November!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
Cause now the Dodgers will be counting on Manny in game seven against the Rouge Sox...duh...
But seriously. The teams are already tied through 162. I think one more game is plenty. If one team had won one more game during the season they wouldn't need a playoff.
It looks like its gonna be Ortiz 3rd, Lowell 4th, and Bay 5th, according to the Boston Herald. No word on how they place Youk and Drew.Quote:
Originally Posted by cartman00000001
If Bay is as good as Manny, why not put Bay batting 3rd?Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
I'd personally go Lowell-Ortiz-Bay.Quote:
Originally Posted by koolzach1
I heard Francona talking about the lefty/right thing. He is big on that.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
I would go:
Pedroia
Youk
Ortiz
Bay
Lowell
Drew
Lowrie
Tek
Crisp/Jacoby
There is a reason Ortiz bats 3rd, and that is it is the most important slot. He can hit for power and get on base. Bay should bat 4th, as he is also powerful and shoul do well there.