Manny to the Dodgers?

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Don't get sucked into Manny's offensive history. He's not THAT great of a hitter anymore (as in, he's not what he used to be). He's still a VERY good hitter, but Jason Bay is only ever so slightly less of a hitter at this point in their careers.

Bay had an off year last season, easily attributable to playing with an injury.

His line since 2005, not including last year, is roughly .292/.396/.528. Manny Ramirez over 2007-2008 is .297/.392/.508. That fails to account for some things, though, like that Bay has been in the easier league, and Ramirez in the easier ballpark. They're both roughly 135 OPS+ hitters at this point in their careers.

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Well, I guess we'll find out, huh? The major thing is that if the Red Sox do make the playoffs, will Jason Bay replace Manny there? Doubtful, but who knows. (Hopefully Bay will suck in the regular season and post season :D)

If Jason Bay is indeed a similar offensive player than Manny (I'd say Manny's a very slightly better hitter, but it's a slight enough difference that Bay makes up for it on the basepaths), than yes, Bay will replace Manny in the playoffs. Bay is a very good hitter, and the playoffs won't change that (and if he hits poorly this postseason, don't be so quick to attribute it to him being a weak-willed dummy that can't hit under pressure, because it'd be like 25 at bats, and that's not nearly enough to make any judgment on).

By the way, Manny Ramirez in the playoffs for his career - .269/.376/.513. Yep, worse than he's done the last 2 years, the worst 2 of his career.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

His line since 2005, not including last year, is roughly .292/.396/.528. Manny Ramirez over 2007-2008 is .297/.392/.508. That fails to account for some things, though, like that Bay has been in the easier league, and Ramirez in the easier ballpark. They're both roughly 135 OPS+ hitters at this point in their careers.

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And Bay's the better fielder - by far.

Just caught up with this story. This is blasphemous...this is madness...! (Someone pick up the line here!)

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Originally Posted by oriole^

And Bay's the better fielder - by far.

Just caught up with this story. This is blasphemous...this is madness...! (Someone pick up the line here!)

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... about time?

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Originally Posted by ohms_law

Nothing. The point still remains that the playoffs don't provide any determination of the "best" team. The regular season certainly does... the playoffs determine the winner though, which in the end is all that really matters anyway.

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Fair point...but it seems many agree with this yet everytime I complain that a 'one game play in tiebreaker' is about the DUMBEST thing that can be done everyones against it??

They play 162 games, through ups and downs, through injuries and trades, and it all comes down to a tiebreaker play in game? One game, doesn't matter of whos injured or unavailable....and then it screws up the teams rotation for the playoffs!! Surely after 162 games they can find a stat (wins head to head for starters) that would break a tie and not leave it totally up to being lucky that your rotation is set for your ace to start.

OK a quick look at the lineup I think could (or should) be out there this weekend

Pedroia
Youk
JD Drew
Ortiz
Lowell
Bay
Lowrie
Tek
Ellsbury/Crisp

I am in favor of moving Drew back to 3 and Ortiz to 4. The only thing about that change is they would be vulnerable to a lefty/lefty matchup. If this was a GREAT concern of Francona, he could put Bay 3, but the numbers Drew put up at the 3, he and the numbers put up by Bay could surpass what Manny has done in the past.

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Originally Posted by dickay

Fair point...but it seems many agree with this yet everytime I complain that a 'one game play in tiebreaker' is about the DUMBEST thing that can be done everyones against it??

They play 162 games, through ups and downs, through injuries and trades, and it all comes down to a tiebreaker play in game? One game, doesn't matter of whos injured or unavailable....and then it screws up the teams rotation for the playoffs!! Surely after 162 games they can find a stat (wins head to head for starters) that would break a tie and not leave it totally up to being lucky that your rotation is set for your ace to start.

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About as silly as a game seven, yeah.

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Originally Posted by cartman00000001

he and the numbers put up by Bay could surpass what Manny has done in the past.

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LOL. I know it's rare and mostly unheard of, but rarely, very rarely, the sum amount of 2 peoples efforts is greater than the one. It's a statistical oddity, but sometimes...
:D

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Originally Posted by filihok

About as silly as a game seven, yeah.

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I dont' know how we went from manny to the 7 game series not being long enough argument, but since were there....

I think its 'sillier', speaking of the one game tiebreaker. At least in a seven game series one gets to go through the rotation, and the more games played the better chance that the better team will come out on top. I have no problem with a recommendation to make the series longer, but the season would probably have to be shortened as they go too late into October and even into November!!

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Originally Posted by dickay

I dont' know how we went from manny to the 7 game series not being long enough argument, but since were there....

I think its 'sillier', speaking of the one game tiebreaker. At least in a seven game series one gets to go through the rotation, and the more games played the better chance that the better team will come out on top. I have no problem with a recommendation to make the series longer, but the season would probably have to be shortened as they go too late into October and even into November!!

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Cause now the Dodgers will be counting on Manny in game seven against the Rouge Sox...duh...

But seriously. The teams are already tied through 162. I think one more game is plenty. If one team had won one more game during the season they wouldn't need a playoff.

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Originally Posted by cartman00000001

OK a quick look at the lineup I think could (or should) be out there this weekend

Pedroia
Youk
JD Drew
Ortiz
Lowell
Bay
Lowrie
Tek
Ellsbury/Crisp

I am in favor of moving Drew back to 3 and Ortiz to 4. The only thing about that change is they would be vulnerable to a lefty/lefty matchup. If this was a GREAT concern of Francona, he could put Bay 3, but the numbers Drew put up at the 3, he and the numbers put up by Bay could surpass what Manny has done in the past.

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It looks like its gonna be Ortiz 3rd, Lowell 4th, and Bay 5th, according to the Boston Herald. No word on how they place Youk and Drew.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

It looks like its gonna be Ortiz 3rd, Lowell 4th, and Bay 5th, according to the Boston Herald. No word on how they place Youk and Drew.

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If Bay is as good as Manny, why not put Bay batting 3rd?

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

If Bay is as good as Manny, why not put Bay batting 3rd?

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I'd personally go Lowell-Ortiz-Bay.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

It looks like its gonna be Ortiz 3rd, Lowell 4th, and Bay 5th, according to the Boston Herald. No word on how they place Youk and Drew.

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I heard Francona talking about the lefty/right thing. He is big on that.

I would go:

Pedroia
Youk
Ortiz
Bay
Lowell
Drew
Lowrie
Tek
Crisp/Jacoby

There is a reason Ortiz bats 3rd, and that is it is the most important slot. He can hit for power and get on base. Bay should bat 4th, as he is also powerful and shoul do well there.