Think they're unquantifiable and should be entirely discounted? Look at the Rays.
Sox are gonna get home 4 games out of first. Fortunatly for them it's still relatively early in the season.
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Think they're unquantifiable and should be entirely discounted? Look at the Rays.
Sox are gonna get home 4 games out of first. Fortunatly for them it's still relatively early in the season.
One word for the Rays: Defense.
I heard the best thing from the broadcasters on YES about the Yankees in a while. The Sox play the Rays coming up. A pure sweep by either team, preferably the Rays, would move the Yanks closer and give them a target to shoot at. The Yanks in 2nd are way more dangerous than 3rd.
The bad thing is that they want the Rays in 1st. Nobody believes that they can hold 1st. So much talent though.
Home field advantage and pitching! They are pitching lights out lights out at the Trop (they are on pace to win 56 games at home!)
Although defense is important, its effect on Tampa and any team for that matter is highly overrated IMO.
Tampa will be in the mix at the end, but I don't see them outlasting Boston. Tampa will fade. I can see them sneaking into the WC but the Yanks may have something to say about it.
Everyone needs to stop fallin in love with the sexy team of the week.
The Rays are not the sexy team of the week. They have the best record in baseball.
Thats what everyone was saying a month ago when the started June 4-6 and swept by the Sox, then they went 12-4 and the fact that they will fade seemd less likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
( they might suffer if Percival winds up being injured though)
When you go from the worst defensive team in the league to one of the best, that effect cannot be understated. Their offense is only slightly better than last year. Their improvement is due in huge part to their vast defensive improvement.Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
I don't think that's the case. At least not with me. I thought they'd be a contending team prior to the season.Quote:
Everyone needs to stop fallin in love with the sexy team of the week.
That, and a pylon on the mound would have blown less games than Reyes.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
And lowering their team ERA from 5.53 to 3.69.
Speaking of relievers...based on Mogul, I thought Juan Salas was going to be the next big thing to come out of Tampa and he can't even get into the country.
Addendum: I just looked him up and he's been in Durham since May. Christ, the Rays have Salas in AAA? Talk about depth. I wish their wasn't the doping offense attached to him...Sox could make a move for him, but they'd take a big publicity hit.
Interestingly, Rob Neyer just made a blog entry on ESPN about the Rays' defense. It's really QUITE dramatic.
The Rays were 8th in the AL in runs last season, and this year they are 6th, only a modest improvement. However, they have shaved nearly 2 runs off their team ERA - from 5.53 to 3.69, going from last to 4th in the AL. Some of that is obviously the pitchers simply pitching better. However, it's silly to chalk the entire improvement up to the pitching by itself, without making mention of the fact that they are VASTLY improved defensively.
At second base, they have Akinori Iwamura instead of Ty Wigginton, BJ Upton, and Brendan Harris. At shortstop, they have Jason Bartlett instead of Harris. Third base, Evan Longoria is better than Iwamura. Last year, the team was dead-last in the MAJORS in Defensive Efficiency, converting 66.2% of balls in play into outs. This year, they've converted 72%, good for SECOND in the majors.
The defense is the single largest reason for the turnaround.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=7743
Good article on the Rays turn-around.
I don't think the question is anymore whether the Rays will fade (way down) or not, but how many years they can sustain this success.
This year they won't finish best in baseball, and I can guarantee that. They will however compete for the division with the Red Sox and Yankees.
Will they be able to sign B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Eric Hinske, Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnastine and all of their awesome bullpen pieces when their contracts expire?
You can?Quote:
Originally Posted by koolzach1
You can guarantee that the team with the best record in baseball at the halfway point won't have the best record in baseball at the end of the season?
I mean, I don't THINK that they'll finish with the best record (but I do think they will make the playoffs), but, really, how can you GUARANTEE that?
OK, I'll start one. I'm just as curious as the next guy, and I watched my first entire Rays game last night, and am watching tonight's. The FIRST thing I noticed was B.J. Upton, because I've heard high praises about him.
So, I checked before posting my theory (I'm learning HGM, just went to BaseballReference.com, but still have trouble with searches), and so my theory may be wrong, but here goes.
IF the Rays falter, I predict he is going to be at the heart of the matter. Yeah, he's more than just a rookie having completed a complete season last year, and I don't know how to look "behind" the annual stats to look for slumps, but that guy has one of those loonnng swings that can develop slumps and holes that pitchers will learn to exploit.
Their bullpen work this year looks very good, but now with Troy Purcevill (spelt rong prolly) now hurt, it's going to change roles for some players, some of which I'm not sold on putting up a whole season as good as the first half.
Their starters DO appear solid. That's one area where they, IMHO, do have staying power. And, IMHO, starting pitching is where you START when you look at any championship caliber team. Those last two spots in the rotation aren't near the top 3, but that's a good rotation, probably as good as any other in the league.
I think if they do fail, it will be because a major part of their offense falls off (Upton), their bullpen doesn't continue its pace, and their defense begins to let them down.
So, I'll go with their going to stick around longer than I originally thought, but I don't see them winning the east, perhaps challenging for the wild card is a possibility, but I wouldn't even go there. I see a 89-73 record, just short of the playoffs.
OK, take aim guys ! :D
The Rays are definitely for real. They may not be this for real, but they're not going away any time soon.
You might be interested in this thread.
That's about what Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system projected before the season (I think it was 88-74, but that's off the top of my head).Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
I'm going to say that they win 94 games and the AL Wild Card. There defense has been MASSIVELY improved, from the worst of the last 50 years in 2007 (according to Defensive Efficiency) to one of the top in the league this year. Further, they've actually had a pretty tough schedule so far, so it's not as if they're beating up on much lesser teams and are due for a rude awakening when the schedule gets tougher.
Currently, according to Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA-adjusted Postseason Odds, the Rays have a 92% chance of making the playoffs. The only team higher is the Cubs at 93%.
Sorry, HGM, I never even looked in that one. Though to be fair, it's not named to make me think that was the "Are the Rays for Real" thread, though it did seem to take that turn. Feel free to merge this into that one if you want. Next time I'll try to be more diligent.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Okay, I'll merge.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
WTF??? Boy, when I hit quote that post was a lot shorter! LOL
How do you find those predictions?? Please be precise, cause I'm lousy at searches. Thx.
I included a link to the postseason odds :)Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
My bad. I clicked on that and all I saw was the standings. I didn't even look over at the other columns, I thought it was the usual other columns you see in standings. LOL.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
EDIT: Boy the Rays are getting the breaks. They just ruled a DP on a play that would've scored a run for the runner sliding into the second baseman (the hitter was originally safe at first). Man, you don't see that called that often, and what a time for it to be called too.
Well, I don't know what stock to put into those calculations because I saw one that really stood out to me. It's got the Angels and A's as basically tied, with a 50/50 shot for each. No way do I see that. I really don't think the A's are gonna challenge the Angels all year long. I think the Rays have a better chance at challenging all year long than the A's.
PLUS, it way, way, way, over exaggerates the Nationals chances. :D
Management appears committed to sustaining this success as long as possible and spending a lot more money than they have in the past. Plus don't discount all the money they get in revenue sharing from teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, etc., that money will go a long way to keeping the players the team needs to keep.Quote:
Originally Posted by koolzach1
They don't even really need to worry about keeping all of them. I don't think they're all that concerned with keeping Hinske and Bartlett, especially with Beckham in the organization and the rest of the loaded farm system. I think they'll manage to keep at least Upton, Garza, and Kazmir (who, IMO, is the guy they really need to keep going forward). The Rays are a team that are going to sustain success with a few mainstays like Longoria, Upton, Kazmir, etc., and then keep it going by recycling players and drafting well and trading guys for prospects when they need to. The Rays farm is already deep enough and good enough to cover and loss they may incur in the next few seasons.
No, they probably won't, but would you bet your life on that, because I know I wouldn't. The Rays are an excellent team that can match up with any team in baseball right now and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they did finish with the best record baseball, though I wouldn't expect them to. Just because they've sucked in years past is no reason to believe they won't finish with the best record in baseball this season, they are EASILY one of the top three teams in baseball right now, along with the Red Sox and Cubs. They'll compete with the Red Sox, but both teams are so much better than the Yankees old, decrepit team its scary.Quote:
This year they won't finish best in baseball, and I can guarantee that. They will however compete for the division with the Red Sox and Yankees.
The really scary thing about the Rays, is that they have the prospects to make a move and get another hitter, or starter, or bullpen arm at the deadline if they want to. They really can only get better at this point. Another thing they have going for them is that they don't have one guy thats incredibly vital to the team's success, they're a classic example of a team being as good as the sum of its parts, without any single one of the parts being hugely more significant than another.
So long as they can keep the core of their young talent in Tampa, they're legit.
Take a closer look. The reason it has that is because the A's have been outscoring their opponents by a larger margin than the Angels have. Now, that's not to say that the Angels won't keep up their incredible run in close games (see the Diamondbacks and Mariners last season), or that the A's won't fall back to earth, but that's why the odds are the way they are. Since it's just odds, the odds are that a team that is outscoring their opponents by a larger margin is more likely to do good than a team that is barely outscoring their opponents. (The A's have outscored their opponents by 59 runs, which coincidentally is the same run differential as the Rays... the Angels have outscored opponents by 12 runs).Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
That would certainly help :). But I don't think they need to keep every single one of Crawford, Upton, Kazmir, Garza, etc., to keep up this success. Not with kids like Desmond Jennings, David Price, Tim Beckham, etc., waiting for their shot when they're ready.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arctic Blast
Unfortunately, I think you're incorrect about the A's and the Angels.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
:(
Yeah, but there is certainly no guarantee that these young prospects will actually develop into what Crawford, Upton, Kazmir, Garza, etc... have become.Quote:
Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG
Thats true, but management is committed to keeping at least some of them, as they have shown with Longoria and Pena, so as long as they can keep Upton and Kazmir, I think they'll be fine, those are the two really big fish in my opinion. I also think that Crawford will be willing to give a big time hometown discount, assuming they don't end up trading him, so he can stick around and contend with the Rays after losing with them for so long.
I don't think the Rays will have any trouble maintaining a high level of success for a great deal of time, especially since they're gonna start making the playoffs soon, and playoffs means more money and more money to spend and keep stars around.
LOL, I'm pretty confident on that one. A's have no shot. I feel so sure about it, I'd be willing to print out this post and eat it if the A's beat the Angels. And if I knew how to use this goshdarn built in WebCam on my new laptop I'd be happy to post it here. Unfortunately, I don't know how, and fortunately, I don't think it will even be close to being an issue. Angels have a much better team than the A's. Over 162 games, it will show.Quote:
Originally Posted by ohms_law
Well, the only problem is that the Rays (even while winning) have gotten ZERO attendance basically. Plus, players are all about the money. I doubt any of them take a big hometown discount. I don't see them having a big run similar to the Yankees or Braves, or a small run similar to the Red Sox. They will compete for a few years, but I cannot guarantee that, and no one can; they don't quite have the monetary resources to compete year in and year out, and there is no guarantee that their prospects will work out.
I concur 100%.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
Not only do they not take large hometown discounts (though I do believe Cal Ripken gave the Orioles some significant discounts) most agents would probably refuse to represent them in this day and age if they demand anything larger than a token hometown discount. This is how the agents make their living after all.Quote:
Originally Posted by koolzach1
But the Rays do have a very impressive base, and because that base is young, I think the immediate future (next 3 years lets say) looks good, at least they should remain competitive. Beyond that, without the major resources, they could easily once again fall back to the old Rays. This is one of those times where your draft picks all fall in line all at the same time, and it works great for awhile. Unfortunately, this doesn't happen very often.
I was personally very impressed with them in the three games against the Sox. Obviously its easy to be impressed with a team when they're winning, but they showed good poise for a young team as in all three games there were stressful situations. And their starting pitching really does look much better than I gave them credit for at the beginning of the season. I'm not as sold on the bullpen holding up and I'm not sold on their defense. And if those pieces slip just a little, and just one or two guys slips a little offensively, they could quickly find themselves with nothing but a .500 second half.
EDIT: Plus, at least as far as this season is concerned, it should be pointed out the Rays do have one thing that works very much in their favor, and that is a farm system full of talent. If they feel they need another bat or arm for the bullpen, they may actually be in a BETTER position to get the help than other teams they're competing with. However, with the advent of the wild card :(, it seems fewer teams are in the "sell" mode in July than they used to be. It seems the big July deals you used to see in baseball frequently in the 70's and 80's aren't done nearly as much anymore.
What evidence is there that the Angels have a much better team? The Athletics have been better at scoring runs and better at preventing runs.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
Where the A's will go from this point depends on whether or not they're still rebuilding or not. If Beane is still planning on moving out guys like Blanton and Crosby, I'd be surprised if they don't take at least a bit of a downturn.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Neither Crosby or Blanton have been particularly helpful this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arctic Blast
Beane's a smart guy. He's not going to attempt to rebuild in the middle of a season where his team is contending. It'd also greatly surprise me if he dealt Blanton, considering Blanton's value is at an all-time low right now and Beane isn't one to sell low.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
:eek: HGM going Joe Morgan on me???? Say it ain't so Joe !
It ain't so.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
You ain't kidding...I hadn't been following the A's, really, so looking up Joe Blanton's stats for the first time...uhhh...WOW. Yeah, 'struggling' doesn't quite seem to cut it. :eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
So the next time you state so and so is an excellent defender, but that can't translate to wins, I'll refer you to this thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM