Think they're unquantifiable and should be entirely discounted? Look at the Rays.
Sox are gonna get home 4 games out of first. Fortunatly for them it's still relatively early in the season.
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Think they're unquantifiable and should be entirely discounted? Look at the Rays.
Sox are gonna get home 4 games out of first. Fortunatly for them it's still relatively early in the season.
One word for the Rays: Defense.
I heard the best thing from the broadcasters on YES about the Yankees in a while. The Sox play the Rays coming up. A pure sweep by either team, preferably the Rays, would move the Yanks closer and give them a target to shoot at. The Yanks in 2nd are way more dangerous than 3rd.
The bad thing is that they want the Rays in 1st. Nobody believes that they can hold 1st. So much talent though.
Home field advantage and pitching! They are pitching lights out lights out at the Trop (they are on pace to win 56 games at home!)
Although defense is important, its effect on Tampa and any team for that matter is highly overrated IMO.
Tampa will be in the mix at the end, but I don't see them outlasting Boston. Tampa will fade. I can see them sneaking into the WC but the Yanks may have something to say about it.
Everyone needs to stop fallin in love with the sexy team of the week.
The Rays are not the sexy team of the week. They have the best record in baseball.
Thats what everyone was saying a month ago when the started June 4-6 and swept by the Sox, then they went 12-4 and the fact that they will fade seemd less likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
( they might suffer if Percival winds up being injured though)
When you go from the worst defensive team in the league to one of the best, that effect cannot be understated. Their offense is only slightly better than last year. Their improvement is due in huge part to their vast defensive improvement.Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
I don't think that's the case. At least not with me. I thought they'd be a contending team prior to the season.Quote:
Everyone needs to stop fallin in love with the sexy team of the week.
That, and a pylon on the mound would have blown less games than Reyes.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
And lowering their team ERA from 5.53 to 3.69.
Speaking of relievers...based on Mogul, I thought Juan Salas was going to be the next big thing to come out of Tampa and he can't even get into the country.
Addendum: I just looked him up and he's been in Durham since May. Christ, the Rays have Salas in AAA? Talk about depth. I wish their wasn't the doping offense attached to him...Sox could make a move for him, but they'd take a big publicity hit.
Interestingly, Rob Neyer just made a blog entry on ESPN about the Rays' defense. It's really QUITE dramatic.
The Rays were 8th in the AL in runs last season, and this year they are 6th, only a modest improvement. However, they have shaved nearly 2 runs off their team ERA - from 5.53 to 3.69, going from last to 4th in the AL. Some of that is obviously the pitchers simply pitching better. However, it's silly to chalk the entire improvement up to the pitching by itself, without making mention of the fact that they are VASTLY improved defensively.
At second base, they have Akinori Iwamura instead of Ty Wigginton, BJ Upton, and Brendan Harris. At shortstop, they have Jason Bartlett instead of Harris. Third base, Evan Longoria is better than Iwamura. Last year, the team was dead-last in the MAJORS in Defensive Efficiency, converting 66.2% of balls in play into outs. This year, they've converted 72%, good for SECOND in the majors.
The defense is the single largest reason for the turnaround.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=7743
Good article on the Rays turn-around.
I don't think the question is anymore whether the Rays will fade (way down) or not, but how many years they can sustain this success.
This year they won't finish best in baseball, and I can guarantee that. They will however compete for the division with the Red Sox and Yankees.
Will they be able to sign B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Eric Hinske, Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnastine and all of their awesome bullpen pieces when their contracts expire?
You can?Quote:
Originally Posted by koolzach1
You can guarantee that the team with the best record in baseball at the halfway point won't have the best record in baseball at the end of the season?
I mean, I don't THINK that they'll finish with the best record (but I do think they will make the playoffs), but, really, how can you GUARANTEE that?
OK, I'll start one. I'm just as curious as the next guy, and I watched my first entire Rays game last night, and am watching tonight's. The FIRST thing I noticed was B.J. Upton, because I've heard high praises about him.
So, I checked before posting my theory (I'm learning HGM, just went to BaseballReference.com, but still have trouble with searches), and so my theory may be wrong, but here goes.
IF the Rays falter, I predict he is going to be at the heart of the matter. Yeah, he's more than just a rookie having completed a complete season last year, and I don't know how to look "behind" the annual stats to look for slumps, but that guy has one of those loonnng swings that can develop slumps and holes that pitchers will learn to exploit.
Their bullpen work this year looks very good, but now with Troy Purcevill (spelt rong prolly) now hurt, it's going to change roles for some players, some of which I'm not sold on putting up a whole season as good as the first half.
Their starters DO appear solid. That's one area where they, IMHO, do have staying power. And, IMHO, starting pitching is where you START when you look at any championship caliber team. Those last two spots in the rotation aren't near the top 3, but that's a good rotation, probably as good as any other in the league.
I think if they do fail, it will be because a major part of their offense falls off (Upton), their bullpen doesn't continue its pace, and their defense begins to let them down.
So, I'll go with their going to stick around longer than I originally thought, but I don't see them winning the east, perhaps challenging for the wild card is a possibility, but I wouldn't even go there. I see a 89-73 record, just short of the playoffs.
OK, take aim guys ! :D
The Rays are definitely for real. They may not be this for real, but they're not going away any time soon.