Where's the Whip?

Hrm, don't know if this is bad form to bump an old thread, but I was searching the board for something else and ran across this and couldn't resist replying.

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Originally Posted by OldFatGuy

Greg Maddux PROVED for years that the pitcher CAN control BABIP because his was ALWAYS lower than MLB avg. If one pitcher CAN control BABIP, then this proves it CAN be done.

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Well, this example is patently absurd if you ask me. In the quote below, talking about the 1999 season, I think Maddux has a BABIP of something like .333, which was so far above his career average it's unbelievable. There's also a quote from Maddux himself on this year which I couldn't find on Google, but he basically says it felt like every time batter hit the ball that season it dropped into a gap.

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The pitchers who are the best at preventing hits on balls in play one year are often the worst at it the next. In 1998, Greg Maddux had one of the best rates in baseball, then in 1999 he had one of the worst. In 2000, he had one of the better ones again. In 1999, Pedro Martinez had one of the worst; in 2000, he had the best. This happens a lot.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

DICE is a better indicator of how the pitcher pitched, seperate from his defense, and thus, is better to predict future performance. ERA is better when discussing the value a pitcher provided in the past.

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DICE may be a good stat in real life, but I think it's somehow horribly flawed in Mogul simulation engine to the point where I don't even look at it anymore. I can find dozens of examples of pitchers whose career ERAs will be at least a half run lower or higher than their DICE, and its easy to look at the ratings and determine who those will be.

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Originally Posted by cfeedback

Well, this example is patently absurd if you ask me. In the quote below, talking about the 1999 season, I think Maddux has a BABIP of something like .333, which was so far above his career average it's unbelievable. There's also a quote from Maddux himself on this year which I couldn't find on Google, but he basically says it felt like every time batter hit the ball that season it dropped into a gap.

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Of course, that .334 BABIP sticks out like a sore thumb in his career, which features a .289 career number. Pitchers do have some degree of control over BABIP. Certain types of pitchers have more control. Knuckleball pitchers, for example. Also, flyball pitchers, because flyballs fall for hits less than groundballs. Chris Young has a .266 career BABIP. He's also one of the most extreme flyball pitchers there is, routinely posting flyball percentages over 50%.

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DICE may be a good stat in real life, but I think it's somehow horribly flawed in Mogul simulation engine to the point where I don't even look at it anymore. I can find dozens of examples of pitchers whose career ERAs will be at least a half run lower or higher than their DICE, and its easy to look at the ratings and determine who those will be.

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This is because of the sim engine not modeling real life when it comes to pitchers, with an abundance of power pitchers that gave up tons of hits, and high movement/low power pitchers that did great. This has been changed for BM2010.

Yeah, DICE was absolute garbage in 2k9. Also, BABIP and all BABIP-related conversations make me happy.

I read something that lefty extreme flyball pitchers tend to have lower career BABIPs also. They give up more homers though, so that's the tradeoff.

I'm extremely happy with Clay's tweaking to BABIP overall in 2010. The pitching problems have been much more in line with real life.