Where's the Whip?

Its already there. Add up his hits and walks and compare that to his innings pitched.

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Originally Posted by OldFatGuy

Its already there. Add up his hits and walks and compare that to his innings pitched.

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We could leave batting average out as well, as at bats and hits are "already there"

Just switch to Sabermetric view and it's there. Or eyeball it.

I like DICE because while it may not be a good predictor of next year's ERA (let alone this year's), it seems to be a more reliable measure of a pitcher's worth. Not the only one by any possible stretch, but it tells me if he's losing it but his defense is saving his butt, or he's doing great but I really need to take a closer look at my defenders. In that respect DICE also gives me insight into my entire defense. If ALL the pitchers have DICE < ERA, then I need to find out who can't field for beans.

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Originally Posted by Jellio

We could leave batting average out as well, as at bats and hits are "already there"

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Yes, you could. As well as ERA. Not a fan at all of a lot of this newfangled sabermetric junk. Some of its helpful, some of its garbage. I guess my overall distaste led me to being a smarta$$ with that post. You properly reminded me of that. Point taken.

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Originally Posted by Jaja

OK, I get it now. Defense independent measures those things that defense can't prevent, like HR's, walks, HB. I am still fuzzy on how this predicts a pitcher's ERA for the following season, since that assumes a dynamic that likewise cannot be controlled, but at least I know how to read that stat. Thank you, and, yes, I am a world-renowned nitpicker. Heehee.

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As belial said, it's because the pitcher's underlying peripheral stats, the ones he has basically 100% control over - walks, strikeouts, home runs - are more stable from year-to-year. Hit rate plays a huge role in ERA, but it fluctuates a lot more than walks, K's, and HR's, as it is highly affected by the defense behind the pitcher. As Clay indicates in his article on DICE, he ran regressions to figure out the coefficients that would best correlate DICE with ERA, and since DICE is more stable than ERA, it's a better predictor of the futrue.

Dice is a somewhat helpful stat, but I don't get the argument that they're trying to make(on the SportsMogul link previously posted) that ERA isn't a true indicator of a pitcher's ability.

"The pitcher might have given up several home runs with the bases loaded, causing his ERA to be higher than it would have been if the home runs had been distributed randomly throughout the season"

This IS an indicator of their ability, lack of ability to get through a pressure situation, thus increasing the likelihood of this happenning in the future with every time that it occurs. It's not "random" when they give up a homerun.

"Let it Whip" is a great song.

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Originally Posted by AndrewOsborn

Dice is a somewhat helpful stat, but I don't get the argument that they're trying to make(on the SportsMogul link previously posted) that ERA isn't a true indicator of a pitcher's ability.

"The pitcher might have given up several home runs with the bases loaded, causing his ERA to be higher than it would have been if the home runs had been distributed randomly throughout the season"

This IS an indicator of their ability, lack of ability to get through a pressure situation, thus increasing the likelihood of this happenning in the future with every time that it occurs. It's not "random" when they give up a homerun.

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Oh boy, NOW you've done it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxH39QlRuhg

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Originally Posted by AndrewOsborn

Dice is a somewhat helpful stat, but I don't get the argument that they're trying to make(on the SportsMogul link previously posted) that ERA isn't a true indicator of a pitcher's ability.

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It is affected by many things out of the pitcher's control.

So is DICE and so is every stat, because every play involves from 10 to 13 players. DICE is less affected by non pitcher things, though I'll give you that. That being said, with all this push for WPA notoriety around here it must be noted that preventing earned runs is a good thing that I encourage people to take into consideration because of the 'clutchness' of stopping earned runs.

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Originally Posted by belial

So is DICE and so is every stat, because every play involves from 10 to 13 players. DICE is less affected by non pitcher things, though I'll give you that.

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Walk rates, strikeout rates, and home run rates are very stable for pitchers from year-to-year. That is why they are better indicators of skill level than ERA.

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That being said, with all this push for WPA notoriety around here it must be noted that preventing earned runs is a good thing that I encourage people to take into consideration because of the 'clutchness' of stopping earned runs.

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"All this push"? What "push" are you talking about? There was one thread, posted by one poster, listing the WPA leaders. That's not a "push" for anything.

Also, ERA is fine for assessing what has happened, just like WPA is. Also, there is WPA for pitchers, which tracks exactly what you're talking about.

I understand why it was posted by SirKodiak because of the work Tom Tango did on it and SirKodiak is a Tom Tango promoter. That much is understandable.

The fact that you have proven to be generally anti-clutch and now supporting a stat for evaluating perfomance output that is based on weighting something you have said is non-existant is a little confusing.

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Originally Posted by belial

I understand why it was posted by SirKodiak because of the work Tom Tango did on it and SirKodiak is a Tom Tango promoter. That much is understandable.

The fact that you have proven to be generally anti-clutch and now supporting a stat for evaluating perfomance output that is based on weighting something you have said is non-existant is a little confusing.

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Why don't we keep this in the WPA thread? I'll respond there.

I'll agree that DICE is a good predictor of ERA, because it just has been and I see no reason why it would stop working.