Reasons Yanks will be home this October

Huge payroll. Slow start. Lowest OPS in the American League heading into play Thursday night.

Detroit Tigers? Nope.

Hit List Better watch out. The last place anyone wants to land is on The Henchman's Hit List. Follow along to see why. It's the New York Yankees, who arrive in Boston this weekend after splitting a series with the Rays and dropping a series to the Royals. Lost in all the shovelfuls of dirt being heaped on the Tigers during their 0-7 start were some foreboding signs in New York.

The Yankees have a perilous mix of players who are well past their prime, young pitchers who haven't reached theirs yet and two journeymen middle relievers racing each other to the waiver wire. This will add up to the unthinkable: no October baseball in the Bronx for the first time since the strike year of 1994.

This week's Hit List runs down the Top 10 reasons the Yanks' streak of consecutive playoff appearances will end at unlucky 13.


Jorge Posada
The Dorian Gray of big league catchers. Posada defied a century of baseball wisdom last season by having the best year of his career as a 36-year-old catcher in 2007. In so doing he cashed in on a four-year, $52.4M contract. And seemingly upon inking the deal, the lines in the portrait began a sudden and inevitable crumble. Posada started the season slowly with three singles in his first 17 at bats (.176) and is now battling a shoulder injury that is preventing him from catching. If Posada's injury lingers, he will join Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui on the growing list of high-priced Yankees whose primary value is at designated hitter.


Derek Jeter

You know you're getting old when a new generation of shortstops who wear No. 2 in your honor (Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta) start reaching the majors. Expectations for Jeter run so high few noticed that he actually exceeded them the last two years. After hitting .314 for the first 10 years of his career, the first-ballot Hall of Famer bumped that number up to .333 over the last two seasons combined. Jeter is 34 now and when he pulled his quad beating out a double-play ball earlier this week it was a grim reminder of a mortality he has rarely displayed in his amazing career. His slow start (.208/.240/.292) and leg injury are eerie harbingers in New York that Jeter's decline phase may have finally begun.

Jason Giambi
One of the saddest sights of the post-Steroid Era is watching those implicated try to prove that their careers were not built on juice alone. So far, Jason Giambi is doing a very bad job of that. Coming off a season in which he hit .236 with 14 home runs and missed 79 games, the 37-year-old has one hit in his first 14 at bats. A below-average first baseman, Giambi would be a logical DH, save for the fact that his career OPS drops off over 200 points when he's not playing in the field.

Johnny Damon
With Melky Cabrera establishing himself as a game-changing centerfielder with his glove and arm, Johnny Damon has been relegated to a LF/DH option. Those aren't slots in the lineup normally reserved for a guy coming off a .747 OPS season. The 34-year-old Damon is off to a slow start and slated to make $26M over the next two seasons. Even if he were to get his OPS back up to his career .786 mark — he's at .649 after two weeks — he'd still be a grossly overpaid liability as a corner outfielder who can't throw.


Andy Pettitte
There was a lot of hand wringing over how Andy Pettitte would respond this season in the wake of the wrenching testimony he was forced to provide against his friend Roger Clemens. A more relevant concern might have been just how much to expect from a 35-year-old with a bad back who allowed 476 hits in 429 innings the last two seasons. If his first start was any indication, the answer is not a lot. Pettitte got roughed up in a 6-3 loss to the Rays, allowing eight hits and two walks over five shaky innings.


Mike Mussina
Moose is 39 years old and coming off the worst season of his career. You don't have to be Bill James to figure out that's a bad combination. Mussina's K/BB ratio dipped to 2.6-to-1 last season, the first time it had been under 3:1 since 1994. After a bad first outing, Mussina bounced back in his last start against the Rays. But when Joba Chamberlain comes to take the ball from one of the Yankee starters this summer, there's a good chance it will be the end of Mussina's largely disappointing tenure (3-7 in his last 10 postseason decisions) in New York.


Ian Kennedy
The 23-year-old Kennedy is by no means a flamethrower in the Joba Chamberlain mold, but some of those mid-80s radar gun readings in his first start had to concern the Yankees' front office. Not only was his velocity down from a year ago, but he was all over the place, walking four in 2.1 brutal innings. Things didn't improve much in his soggy relief appearance on Wednesday as he went walk, double, base hit to the first three batters he faced, allowing two runs before getting an out. Right-handed soft-tossers who walk guys aren't long for the big leagues, much less the rotation of the highest-priced team in baseball.


Phil Hughes
For 6.1 spectacular innings of no-hit ball in Texas last May, the Yankees glimpsed the future and had to believe they were seeing the second coming of David Cone. But in Hughes' 14 other Major League starts he is 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA and a less than 2-to-1 K/BB ratio (58K, 31BB). The future may still be bright, but after the 21-year-old Hughes was roughed up for 10 baserunners in three innings in K.C. on Tuesday it just doesn't appear to be now.


Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins
There are two reasons guys end up middle relievers: not good enough to start and not good enough to close. Few embody those limitations more than Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins. In eight outings this season they have allowed 19 hits and four walks in 9.1 innings, while combining for a 9.64 ERA. The bridge to Mariano Rivera might be secure with Chamberlain, but the bridge to the bridge is looking pretty treacherous.


Joe Girardi
So much of managerial success is about timing. When Joe Torre arrived in New York, he had a rookie shortstop beginning a Hall of Fame career and a winning nucleus of Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera in their primes. Compare that to the situation Joe Girardi has inherited. Not only has Torre established the standard of making the playoffs every year with anything less than a title considered a failure, but now Jeter, 34; Posada, 36; Giambi, 37; Damon, 34; Rivera, 38; Pettitte, 35; and Mike Mussina, 39, are all in their decline phases. Girardi's first controversial decision backfired as he played weatherman in Kansas City and pulled Kennedy from his scheduled start for fear of losing him to a rain delay. The Yankees lost 4-0 as Farnsworth and Kennedy each got nicked for two runs in relief of emergency starter Brian Bruney, while Royals starter Zach Greinke dazzled in the raindrops for eight uninterrupted innings. This was the gig Girardi wanted. We'll see how long he has it if the Yankees miss the playoffs.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8...-this-October-

Most of these are just silly... but I won't bother pointing out the baseless leaps of logic in all of them (of course, mostly it's in the "logic" of projecting a player's season based on his performance in the first couple of weeks) because I'm too distracted trying to figure out how starting Ian Kennedy would have resulting in the team actually scoring runs. Or maybe the idea is that if Kennedy had started he would have posted the first negative-run outing in baseball history and NY would have won 0 to -2.

Yep, Girardi really blew that one.

The Yankees will be fine, this article is so negative, it's not even worth reading.

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

The Yankees will be fine, this article is so negative, it's not even worth reading.

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Also, it bases its entire premise on miniscule sample sizes. That's why it's really not even worth reading!

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Also, it bases its entire premise on miniscule sample sizes. That's why it's really not even worth reading!

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HGM I thought you just LOVED when sport experts did that:p

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Also, it bases its entire premise on miniscule sample sizes.

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Not only that, but on selecting smaller samples than are actually available. For example, regarding Pettitte:

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If his first start was any indication, the answer is not a lot. Pettitte got roughed up in a 6-3 loss to the Rays, allowing eight hits and two walks over five shaky innings.

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But since this article was clearly written after Pettitte's second start, a 6-1 win in Kansas City ("...arrive in Boston this weekend after splitting a series with the Rays and dropping a series to the Royals"), why assume that his first start is any better "indication" than his second?

Simple: choose only the facts that support your premise; ignore any that run counter to it.

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Originally Posted by JayC

I'm too distracted trying to figure out how starting Ian Kennedy would have resulting in the team actually scoring runs.

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Hah! funny stuff. I think we all assume the Yankees will do their usual 94+ win season, including myself (avid Red Sox fan). It's silly to think that they'll somehow end up in the cellar (like they were at the end of April last year). These things have a way of working themselves out, given time.

Still, that doesn't mean he doesn't have some valid points - sure, question marks in the rotation (aren't there in any?), but also the glut of multi-million-dollar-DH candidates, and the possibility that the successful core of years past are collectively in their declining years. His points may have some validity; only time will tell.

Now, let's get ready for some good Dice-K action tonight!

sure the Yankees aren't great this year, but this article definitely didn't show why. A couple of good examples in the article, but I think that the "1 for for 14!!" and other examples of poor play this season are completely useless. We're about 5% into the season.

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Originally Posted by AndrewOsborn

We're about 5% into the season.

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Yep... stuff like "if [Pettitte's] first start was any indication..." (even if it hadn't been written after his second start) are not much more valid than if this guy a year ago had written "if Alex Rodriguez' first three at bats in 2007 are any indication, he's going to have a terrible season."

He shouldn't have used the small sample sizes, I agree. But even the most ardent Yanks fan can't ignore their age and the inability for a number of them to play the field with any competence.

If they do well again this year, it will be despite the individual players on the roster at this point in time, not because of them.

As an avid Red Sox fan, I sadly feel I am one of the few realists in the 'nation'. I listen to WEEI frequently, and there are others who see the truth but we are the minority.

The Red Sox have a great team and a great shot at the division but in no way should the Yankees be seen as a much lesser team. Quite the contrary. This is a team that last season had a horrific start and nearly won the division, playing and hitting at one of the most incredible paces the ever during the second half.

Their rotation is very similar to the Red Sox minus Schilling. Yes Beckett is better than Wang in the big game/playoffs but they are a wash during the regular season. Pettite & Dice are pretty much equals and yes Boston fans will cling to Dice's great start thus far but if I were a betting man I'd have to bet on Pettite to have a better season then Dice. I'll take Moose over Wake and the kids are a wash on both ends.

Bullpen depth goes to Boston by a good measure but I'll take Chamberlain / Rivera over Okajima / Papelbon though not by much.

Offense goes to NYY hands down. If they click like they did second half last year, watch out Boston and all in the AL.

The AL East is very tough this year, I only think one team will come out of it. I think Boston has more pieces capable of making a mid-season move and I think Boston's depth of pitching is going to be a big difference maker. But it is by no means a foregone conclusion, the Yankees are really being underestimated by many.

You gotta love the comment regarding Mussina, "largely dissapointing tenure". The Yankee fans have no respect. Mussina has been a solid #2 - #3 pitcher during his tenure, as solid as any in the game. His 'tenure' has been anything but disappointing. Yes his postseason hasn't been all that terrific but they can at least get the stats correct, his postseason record in NY is 5-6 with 5 no decisions and one of those losses he pitched 7 innings giving up only 2 runs.

Just like the Yankee fan booing Mariano Rivera, they show no class disrespecting one of the honorable Yankees in Mussina. Gotta love when they cheer a fake like Giambi though. :confused:

Yeah, Yankee fans have "no class"...

Jeez, at least we don't lose our jobs and start collecting unemployment because of screwing up on a job due to our intelligence or lack there of. *Talking about that idiot sawx fan that buried the sawx jersey in the concrete of the Yankees new stadium*

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Originally Posted by dickay

You gotta love the comment regarding Mussina, "largely dissapointing tenure". The Yankee fans have no respect. Mussina has been a solid #2 - #3 pitcher during his tenure, as solid as any in the game. His 'tenure' has been anything but disappointing. Yes his postseason hasn't been all that terrific but they can at least get the stats correct, his postseason record in NY is 5-6 with 5 no decisions and one of those losses he pitched 7 innings giving up only 2 runs.

Just like the Yankee fan booing Mariano Rivera, they show no class disrespecting one of the honorable Yankees in Mussina. Gotta love when they cheer a fake like Giambi though. :confused:

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Don't you know anything? Mussina came over after the 2000 season and the Yankees haven't won a World Series yet! He's worthless!

Curse of the Moose

I still have always liked Moose. I have been appreciative of his tenure. Just not a great big game pitcher.

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

I still has always liked Moose. I have been appreciative of his tenure. Just not a great big game pitcher.

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He has a 3.42 ERA in 139.2 postseason innings. His career ERA is 3.70. He has a lower ERA in the postseason, pitching against the better teams in the league. I'd say he's a fine big game pitcher.

Hmm... I didn't really realize that he was a good big game pitcher. He just hasn't been in the last few post season series; Of course, no one on the staff as been, with the exception of Wang (discounting last October, of course).

And therein lies the reason not to rely on small sample sizes! :p

It isn't the curse of the moose, it was the curse of Don Mattingly. The year after he retired they won the WS and the year he came back to coach the Yanks and every year since they've been favored and have not won. He never won during his tenure, is a career loser and the fact he's now out of NY scares me. Maybe, just maybe....if the Yanks do win it this year people will realize how big of a curse he was.

lol

you know, you could be onto something there. We'll just have to wait and see...
:)

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

He has a 3.42 ERA in 139.2 postseason innings. His career ERA is 3.70. He has a lower ERA in the postseason, pitching against the better teams in the league. I'd say he's a fine big game pitcher.

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psst he is not a true Yankee though

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Originally Posted by dickay

It isn't the curse of the moose, it was the curse of Don Mattingly. The year after he retired they won the WS and the year he came back to coach the Yanks and every year since they've been favored and have not won. He never won during his tenure, is a career loser and the fact he's now out of NY scares me. Maybe, just maybe....if the Yanks do win it this year people will realize how big of a curse he was.

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Amen!

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Originally Posted by Wassit3

psst he is not a true Yankee though

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Spoken like a Yankee elitist fan. What is a 'true yankee' if Mussina isn't? He's one of the few stand up guys in the game and has pitched well and consistent injury free for the most part for the better part of a decade!! Again, Yankee fans boo and slam Mussina and then cheer Giambi. Quite a joke! Whens the 'bring back Strawberry' movement going to start again? Or maybe we can give Steve Howe his umpteenth shot? Mussina is a class act who's laid it on the line consistently for nearly a decade in a yankee uni. I can think of few that are more deserving of the 'true yankee' title than Moose.

I am a true yankee hater, but there are some Yankee players even as a Red Sox fan you have to admit we've come to greatly respect. There's nobody in baseball, including on the Red Sox, that I respect and admire more than Mariano Rivera and yet Yankee fans actually boo this guy. Talk about consistency in big games, this guy personafies it. Jeter, whats there not to respect about a hard nosed everyday player who goes about his business professionally and wins. Bernie, same thing. Pettitte, HGH aside, hard to knock the guy. Mussina, same thing. Thats about it...but thats enough.

I'm not saying Mussina is not 'booable' but there are some (ie. Rivera & Jeter) who are not 'booable' under any circumstances. I'm not saying you can't boo Mussina....but to knock him like Yankee fans do and then say he's not a 'true' yankee...thats a cop out.

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Originally Posted by dickay

Spoken like a Yankee elitist fan. What is a 'true yankee' if Mussina isn't?

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I'm pretty sure Wassit was being sarcastic. :p

He was, I believe.

Anyways... What about the Red Sox booing Keith Foulk so bad that he basically sucked and retired? Isn't that how it went?

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

He was, I believe.

Anyways... What about the Red Sox booing Keith Foulk so bad that he basically sucked and retired? Isn't that how it went?

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Well, usually it works where you suck first then get booed. Yes foulke did get booed and most certainly deserved it. As I said, I feel most players are 'booable' but a few elite are not and foulke was definately not in that category. Yes he pitched great in 04 and will always be remembered for making the last outs during the WS. Although the sox fan will boo Foulke, we quickly acknowledge his success during 04 and most of his Red Sox tenure, hold him in high regard which is the difference with the Foulke/Mussina comparisons. The Yankee fan, at least those in here and most I've spoken too, seems to significantly undervalue Mussina's contributions which is ashame.

I have always been surprised at Foulkes success as a closer because he does not and has never had closer stuff. A low 80's fastball is not what I want as a closer. He's shocked me thus far with his return to Oakland but lets see how much longer this can last. I am pulling for him to do well, and as a setup man/middle releiver I think he's in a better situation for success.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

I'm pretty sure Wassit was being sarcastic. :p

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got ya...I thought he was a yankee fan being serious lol. sorry bout that wassit :D

Foulke shoulda NEVER been booed, IMO. Come on Sawx fans... The guy was a main key to bringing BOS their first championship in like 86 years!

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

Foulke shoulda NEVER been booed, IMO. Come on Sawx fans... The guy was a main key to bringing BOS their first championship in like 86 years!

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He was a significant part of the team....but it was one season. He got quite a pardon during a horrific 05 season and was just as bad during the 06 season. How much of a pass should that one season earn???? He'll always be welcomed, admired, and receive thanks and pats on the back from BoSox fans, but the booing was well deserved. Its not as if he's won multiple WS rings, a WS MVP, four closer of the year awards, has been the greatest closer in postseason history and possibly of alltime getting booed. That only happens in NY.

Ha, doesn't matter if it was for just 1 season. If it wasn't for him, maybe BOS doesn't win that WS. Don't boo a guy that was one of the more important players on the team. The coach/gm/owner knew he was struggling, so just wait to them to take action. Don't shatter the dudes confidence and make him scared to take the mound, because he knew that was was gonna hear a ton of boos from his own (team's) fans.

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Originally Posted by dickay

I have always been surprised at Foulkes success as a closer because he does not and has never had closer stuff. A low 80's fastball is not what I want as a closer..

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That's because, given a full season, nearly any competent reliever can be a successful closer.

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

Ha, doesn't matter if it was for just 1 season. If it wasn't for him, maybe BOS doesn't win that WS. Don't boo a guy that was one of the more important players on the team. The coach/gm/owner knew he was struggling, so just wait to them to take action. Don't shatter the dudes confidence and make him scared to take the mound, because he knew that was was gonna hear a ton of boos from his own (team's) fans.

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Well...I agree to disagree here. As said prior, he's not 'unbooable' in my mind, he was given quite a pass during the 05 season because of his contributions during 04, is still idolized by Boston fans but wasn't getting it done. He even admitted he deserved to be booed. Thats the game, if you don't perform you get booed. The only Red Sox from the 04 team that are 'unbooable' are Ortiz, Varitek, and Manny...with a big if next to Manny because of his 'Manny being Manny' antics. Schilling is a horses a$$, but he gets a huge pass because of his amazing 04 bloody sock performance and was very big in 07 when it matters. He's hard to boo as well but really try's very hard to get boo's.

Wait... why is Varitek un-booable?

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

Wait... why is Varitek un-booable?

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Any Sox fan knows this guy is and has been the glue to the staff for years. He wears the 'C', and works harder than just about any catcher out there in preparation for handling a pitcher. Just look at how the Sox fared when he missed a month plus in 06, everything fell apart. He's the most indispensable player on the team.

Believe me, I wasn't a believer in all the hype that Varitek was so valuable to the pitching staff before he was signed to an extension 5 years ago. He was an aging catcher at the time, and I was afraid the media was for some reason building him up as more valuable than he really was. But the Sox opened the vault for an aging catcher showing how valuable they believe he is, and during his contract which I believe this is the last season of it he's made me a believer. Completely unbooable and any true Red Sox fan will agree that he can continue to have a batting average lower than his weight and he'll be cheered as long as he's able to call games.

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Originally Posted by dickay

Completely unbooable and any true Red Sox fan will agree that he can continue to have a batting average lower than his weight and he'll be cheered as long as he's able to call games.

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Lol; Well, I have to admit that he is one helluva game caller.

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Originally Posted by koolzach1

Lol; Well, I have to admit that he is one helluva game caller.

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Schilling and his ego shakes off a Varitek sign in the 9th with 2 outs sitting 1 out from his first no-hitter. Bull Durham-esk Shannon Stewart takes Schillings selection and breaks up the no-no. Think Schilling isn't still kicking himself for that lol.

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Originally Posted by dickay

There's nobody in baseball, including on the Red Sox, that I respect and admire more than Mariano Rivera and yet Yankee fans actually boo this guy.

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It's probably happened, sporadically and by a small number of people in the stands... but I've been to dozens of Yankee games and watched hundreds more on TV and have never heard Rivera booed.

On the contrary, the electricity in the stands when he takes the mound is amazing -- and there are probably more Rivera jerseys worn in the stands than anyone else's other than Jeter.

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Originally Posted by JayC

It's probably happened, sporadically and by a small number of people in the stands... but I've been to dozens of Yankee games and watched hundreds more on TV and have never heard Rivera booed.

On the contrary, the electricity in the stands when he takes the mound is amazing -- and there are probably more Rivera jerseys worn in the stands than anyone else's other than Jeter.

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This comes from early in the 2005 season, Rivera struggled out of the gate and was booed 'loudly' at Yankee Stadium. A big deal was made out of it on ESPN and it was all over the news at the time. Somehow, the Red Sox fans got across to the media that Rivera shouldn't worry, even if the Yankee fans don't respect him we'll cheer ya. When the Yanks came to Boston for the sawx opening day and ring ceremony (love saying that), during that game Rivera drew the a louder applause than many Red Sox players.

Now, some of those cheering were doing so because Rivera blew games in the 04 playoff choke-a-palooza, some were cheering to show Yankee fans that the Sox had more class, but most IMO were cheering out of respect for the machine this guy is.

So when I say Rivera gets booed by the Yankee fans, I'm mainly referring to that time period. He has had boo's since then, but I agree with you its been much less.

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Originally Posted by dickay

This comes from early in the 2005 season, Rivera struggled out of the gate and was booed 'loudly' at Yankee Stadium. A big deal was made out of it on ESPN and it was all over the news at the time.

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While I didn't have my Sound Pressure Level meter with me... don't believe everything that's said on ESPN.

Like I said before, sporadically and by a small number of people.