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I am gonna make a prediction:
Maine:0-1, 1/3IP, 328 HR, 156BB, 0K, 999.99 ERA, OPB .999
and a torn rotator cuff that ends the season. Other than that, acoording to my prediction, he shouldn't be half bad, just not half good either. More or less half and half between half good and half bad.
isn't that a little harsh?:DQuote:
Originally Posted by RedsoxRockies
Based on his career before he came to the Mets. And based on just looking at him pitch(he doesn't have good stuff in my opinion). I think the past two seasons he had was just based on a new league getting accustomed to him. I would be very suprised if he has an ERA under 4 this seasonQuote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
You mean, 43 innings of bad pitching as a 23 and a 24 year old? You know, that's meaningful.Quote:
Originally Posted by defense
He's got a fastball that touches the mid-90s, along with three other solid pitches and he changes speeds well. And I'm sorry, but it's extremely difficult to strike out nearly a batter an inning without good stuff.Quote:
And based on just looking at him pitch(he doesn't have good stuff in my opinion).
I would not at all be surprised by an ERA under 4, but I wouldn't be surprised by an ERA over 4 either. I expect him to have an ERA slightly above league average, just as he was in 2007. League average is around 4.30 for a pitcher whose homepark is Shea.Quote:
I think the past two seasons he had was just based on a new league getting accustomed to him. I would be very suprised if he has an ERA under 4 this season
Maine could be the first starter on the Nationals. I lollered when I saw Odalis Perez on the mound last night.
followed by the next day's "Maine would be more comfortable on a team where he felt more comfortable" i had that one pop up the other day :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by JayC
And with Maine out for the season presumably PECOTA sweeps in for the win.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Thanks for playing everybody, the winning numbers were
10-8,140 IP,16 HR,67 BB,122 K, 4.18 ERA
I AM NOT kidding you, look it up.
All hail the mighty PECOTA :D
wow
See how accurate it is when you actually use the facts and numbers to make a projection, instead of just pulling numbers out of thin air?Quote:
Originally Posted by metsguy234
Some smart ass will likely chime in with an example of where PECOTA was way off, which they'll claim is somehow proof that the system sucks. Here's the thing - every reasonable projection system will get some dead-on projections, such as PECOTA did with John Maine, and some horribly off projections, simply because baseball is a very unpredictable game. The major projection systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, Marcel, Bill James) are all pretty accurate. Most studies into which ones are better that I've seen have PECOTA comfortably ahead of the pack when it comes to hitters, and I believe ZiPS slightly ahead of the rest when it comes to pitchers. So, projection systems, particularly high-end ones like PECOTA, are fairly accurate. In some cases, they're astonishingly accurate, and in some cases, way off. That is all.
In summary: It's hard to accurately predict the future.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
No. It's hard to perfectly predict the future. Impossible, in fact. Just because a projection system doesn't perfectly predict the future does not mean that it doesn't accurately predict the future. PECOTA, along with the other major projection systems, all do a fine job of accurately predicting the future, overall.Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
I predict mets out 1st round
And you think the work they put in to do it is easy? ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Why the nitpicking?Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
interesting.
curious,
was the projection accounting for potential season ending injury ?
or was it projecting him to make 30 - 33 starts and get knocked out in the 5th inning on avg ?