2008 MLB Predictions

Here's one magazine's predictions and overview of the 2008 MLB Season. What do you think will happen?
*******

Source: Major League Baseball Yearbook 2008

Code:

American League East Team W L PCT GB Boston 98 64 611 -- NY Yankees 92 70 599 6 (WC) Toronto 80 82 494 18 Tampa Bay 76 86 426 22 Baltimore 67 95 414 31 American League Central Team W L PCT GB Detroit 95 67 586 -- Cleveland 89 73 549 6 Chi WSox 78 84 481 17 Minnesota 74 88 457 21 Kansas City 71 91 444 24 American League West Team W L PCT GB LA Angels 96 66 593 -- Seattle 79 83 488 17 Texas 76 86 469 20 Oakland 73 89 451 23

BOS: "...guys like Lowell and Pedroia are due to come back to Earth after career years."
NYY: "...still have the offensive firepower to dominate. Pitching isn't elite, but it'll be enough."
TOR: "...valiant effort to contend, but don't have enough to overtake the Sox and Yanks."
TBD: "...as good pitching as they ever have. Finally ready to begin a slow ascent."
BAL: "...Need to completely blow up their team and plan for the next decade."

DET: "...After a huge offseason, they appear to have the best lineup in baseball."
CLE: "...in trouble after Detroit's big winter. Need more from their OF and young starters."
CHW: "...Swisher will make their lineup more powerful, but their bullpen is suspect."
MIN: "...Offense has more holes than ever. Will take a huge return from Liriano to contend."
KCR: "...no glaring holes, but no above average hitters. Back of their rotation will make for another long season."

LAA: "...With much of the ALW in rebuild mode, they are heavy favorites to run away from the pack."
SEA: "...don't have enough pitching beyond Felix Hernandez to reach the playoffs."
TEX: "...lineup is as weak as it's been, and still don't have any pitching."
OAK: "...in full rebuilding mode. Content to flounder for a few seasons."
*******

Code:

National League East Team W L PCT GB NY Mets 97 65 599 -- Philadelphia 89 73 549 8 (WC) Atlanta 86 76 531 11 Washington 70 92 432 27 Florida 70 92 432 27 National League Central Team W L PCT GB Houston 86 76 531 -- St. Louis 83 79 512 3 Chi Cubs 81 81 500 5 Milwaukee 80 82 494 6 Pittsburgh 70 92 432 16 Cincinnati 68 94 420 18 National League West Team W L PCT GB San Diego 89 73 549 -- Arizona 87 75 537 2 LA Dodgers 84 78 519 5 Colorado 80 82 494 9 San Francisco 66 96 407 23

NYM: "...too talented not to play in October, especially if Pedro returns to form."
PHI: "...Howard, Rollins and Utley won't allow them to regress. Hamels is on the brink of stardom."
ATL: "...perennial contenders stuck in a division with the NL's two most talented teams."
WAS: "...still a mess, need a lot more young support for Milledge and Zimmerman."
FLA: "...another fire sale has them looking strong for the next decade."

HOU: "...sold off much of their farm to win now. Will if their rotation holds up."
STL: "...will battle Houston for the NLC. Needs to find starting pitching."
CHC: "...will also battle Houston/St. Louis. Needs production from Fukudome and Pie."
MIL: "...bright future ahead of them, but a weak outfield."
PIT: "...would be well advised to blow up their team and look to the future. Wouldn't take much to compete."
CIN: "...looking strong for the next decade, with three legit ROY candidates."

SDP: "...enough pitching to dominate the NL."
ARI: "...lived on the edge last season, and even with Haren they have lots of weaknesses."
LAD: "...When will they embrace their young offensive talent?"
COL: "...don't have the pitching to sustain their ridiculous pace from last fall."
SFG: "...will miss Bonds, as they may have the worst offense in baseball."
*******

ALDS: Detroit def. Boston, NY Yankees def. LA Angels
NLDS: Houston def. NY Mets, San Diego def. Philadelphia

ALCS: NY Yankees def. Detroit
NLCS: San Diego def. Houston

WS: NY Yankees def. San Diego 4-1
*******

AL Cy Young: John Lackey, LA Angels
AL MVP: David Ortiz, Boston
AL ROY: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
Manager: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay
Comeback Player: Milton Bradley, Texas

NL Cy Young: Dan Haren, Arizona
NL MVP: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia
NL ROY: Joey Votto, Cincinnati
Manager: Cecil Cooper, Houston
Comeback Player: Pedro Martinez, NY Mets

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

I find it hard to believe that if Dan Haren wins Cy Young that the D-Bags don't go to the playoffs. But I think both Philly and New York will as well. I think Arizona will win the West.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

AL East
Boston Red Sox - 97-65
New York Yankees - 89-73
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 82-80
Toronto Blue Jays - 76-86
Baltimore Orioles - 64-98

AL Central
Detroit Tigers -102-60
Cleveland Indians - 92-70 (WC)
Chicago White Sox - 86-76
Minnesota Twins - 78-84
Kansas City Royals - 74-88

AL West
Los Angeles Angels - 96-66
Seattle Mariners - 84-78
Oakland Athletics - 79-83
Texas Rangers - 68-94

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies - 94-68
New York Mets - 92-70 (WC)
Washington Nationals - 86-76
Atlanta Braves - 83-79
Florida Marlins - 63-99

NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers - 89-73
Chicago Cubs - 87-75
Houston Astros - 81-81
Cincinnati Reds - 79-83
St. Louis Cardinals - 75-87
Pittsburgh Pirates - 66-96

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks - 92-70
Los Angeles Dodgers - 88-74
San Diego Padres - 85-77
Colorado Rockies - 78-84
San Francisco Giants - 64-98

Playoffs
ALDS
Boston OVER Cleveland in 5, Detroit OVER Los Angeles in 4
NLDS
Philadelphia OVER Milwaukee in 4, New York OVER Arizona in 5

LCS
Boston OVER Detroit in 7
Philadelphia OVER New York in 7

World Series
Boston OVER Philadelphia in 4

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

how do the brewers win NL central? and mets win NL East and Santana wins Cy Young

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Quote:

Originally Posted by CatKnight

Here's one magazine's predictions and overview of the 2008 MLB Season. What do you think will happen?
*******

Source: Major League Baseball Yearbook 2008

Code:

American League East Team W L PCT GB Boston 98 64 611 -- NY Yankees 92 70 599 6 (WC) Toronto 80 82 494 18 Tampa Bay 76 86 426 22 Baltimore 67 95 414 31 American League Central Team W L PCT GB Detroit 95 67 586 -- Cleveland 89 73 549 6 Chi WSox 78 84 481 17 Minnesota 74 88 457 21 Kansas City 71 91 444 24 American League West Team W L PCT GB LA Angels 96 66 593 -- Seattle 79 83 488 17 Texas 76 86 469 20 Oakland 73 89 451 23

BOS: "...guys like Lowell and Pedroia are due to come back to Earth after career years."
NYY: "...still have the offensive firepower to dominate. Pitching isn't elite, but it'll be enough."
TOR: "...valiant effort to contend, but don't have enough to overtake the Sox and Yanks."
TBD: "...as good pitching as they ever have. Finally ready to begin a slow ascent."
BAL: "...Need to completely blow up their team and plan for the next decade."

DET: "...After a huge offseason, they appear to have the best lineup in baseball."
CLE: "...in trouble after Detroit's big winter. Need more from their OF and young starters."
CHW: "...Swisher will make their lineup more powerful, but their bullpen is suspect."
MIN: "...Offense has more holes than ever. Will take a huge return from Liriano to contend."
KCR: "...no glaring holes, but no above average hitters. Back of their rotation will make for another long season."

LAA: "...With much of the ALW in rebuild mode, they are heavy favorites to run away from the pack."
SEA: "...don't have enough pitching beyond Felix Hernandez to reach the playoffs."
TEX: "...lineup is as weak as it's been, and still don't have any pitching."
OAK: "...in full rebuilding mode. Content to flounder for a few seasons."
*******

Code:

National League East Team W L PCT GB NY Mets 97 65 599 -- Philadelphia 89 73 549 8 (WC) Atlanta 86 76 531 11 Washington 70 92 432 27 Florida 70 92 432 27 National League Central Team W L PCT GB Houston 86 76 531 -- St. Louis 83 79 512 3 Chi Cubs 81 81 500 5 Milwaukee 80 82 494 6 Pittsburgh 70 92 432 16 Cincinnati 68 94 420 18 National League West Team W L PCT GB San Diego 89 73 549 -- Arizona 87 75 537 2 LA Dodgers 84 78 519 5 Colorado 80 82 494 9 San Francisco 66 96 407 23

NYM: "...too talented not to play in October, especially if Pedro returns to form."
PHI: "...Howard, Rollins and Utley won't allow them to regress. Hamels is on the brink of stardom."
ATL: "...perennial contenders stuck in a division with the NL's two most talented teams."
WAS: "...still a mess, need a lot more young support for Milledge and Zimmerman."
FLA: "...another fire sale has them looking strong for the next decade."

HOU: "...sold off much of their farm to win now. Will if their rotation holds up."
STL: "...will battle Houston for the NLC. Needs to find starting pitching."
CHC: "...will also battle Houston/St. Louis. Needs production from Fukudome and Pie."
MIL: "...bright future ahead of them, but a weak outfield."
PIT: "...would be well advised to blow up their team and look to the future. Wouldn't take much to compete."
CIN: "...looking strong for the next decade, with three legit ROY candidates."

SDP: "...enough pitching to dominate the NL."
ARI: "...lived on the edge last season, and even with Haren they have lots of weaknesses."
LAD: "...When will they embrace their young offensive talent?"
COL: "...don't have the pitching to sustain their ridiculous pace from last fall."
SFG: "...will miss Bonds, as they may have the worst offense in baseball."
*******

ALDS: Detroit def. Boston, NY Yankees def. LA Angels
NLDS: Houston def. NY Mets, San Diego def. Philadelphia

ALCS: NY Yankees def. Detroit
NLCS: San Diego def. Houston

WS: NY Yankees def. San Diego 4-1
*******

AL Cy Young: John Lackey, LA Angels
AL MVP: David Ortiz, Boston
AL ROY: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
Manager: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay
Comeback Player: Milton Bradley, Texas

NL Cy Young: Dan Haren, Arizona
NL MVP: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia
NL ROY: Joey Votto, Cincinnati
Manager: Cecil Cooper, Houston
Comeback Player: Pedro Martinez, NY Mets

Yeah.... No. Those predictions are horrible.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Quote:

BOS: "...guys like Lowell and Pedroia are due to come back to Earth after career years."

Lowell, yes. Pedroia? How the heck can you claim that it was a career year? It was his first freaking year. Yes, it's possible it is, but there's no basis at all for this statement.

Quote:

KCR: "...no glaring holes, but no above average hitters. Back of their rotation will make for another long season."

Does Billy Butler not count as "above average"? What about Jose Guillen?

Quote:

SEA: "...don't have enough pitching beyond Felix Hernandez to reach the playoffs."

I hope this was written before the Bedard trade....

Quote:

FLA: "...another fire sale has them looking strong for the next decade."

It does?

Quote:

HOU: "...sold off much of their farm to win now. Will if their rotation holds up."

....

They're rotation is Roy Oswalt, and a bunch of nobodies.

Sorry, they won't win now.

Quote:

STL: "...will battle Houston for the NLC. Needs to find starting pitching."

CHC: "...will also battle Houston/St. Louis. Needs production from Fukudome and Pie."

MIL: "...bright future ahead of them, but a weak outfield."

WTF? How do you predict the 3rd and 4th place teams from this past year to be better than the 1st and 2nd place teams when the 1st and 2nd place teams have improved and the 3rd and 4th place teams have gone backwards? Wow.

And "a weak outfield"? Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart. Uh....where's the "weak"?

Quote:

NL Cy Young: Dan Haren, Arizona

I hope this was before the Johan Santana trade. Even so, Webb's a better prediction than his teammate Haren.

Quote:

Manager: Cecil Cooper, Houston

O_o

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Here's the projected standings from Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections:

AL EAST
New York Yankees 96 66
Boston Red Sox 93 69
Toronto Blue Jays 83 79
Tampa Bay Rays 82 80
Baltimore Orioles 69 93

AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians 89 73
Detroit Tigers 89 73
Chicago White Sox 77 85
Minnesota Twins 74 88
Kansas City Royals 71 91

AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels 89 73
Oakland Athletics 78 84
Texas Rangers 74 88
Seattle Mariners 73 89

NL EAST
New York Mets 96 66
Atlanta Braves 86 76
Philadelphia Phillies 84 78
Florida Marlins 76 86
Washington Nationals 72 90

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs 89 73
Milwaukee Brewers 87 75
Cincinnati Reds 79 83
Houston Astros 74 88
St. Louis Cardinals 72 90
Pittsburgh Pirates 71 91

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks 86 76
Los Angeles Dodgers 86 76
San Diego Padres 83 79
Colorado Rockies 82 80
San Francisco Giants 72 90

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

This was definitely written before the Santana trade. I found a few other transactions missing. I wasn't happy when I figured that out.

Note they didn't give Santana the AL Cy Young either.

I think the predictions ARE closer than skud's (no offense) - simply because skud's numbers would indicate that the league is losing competitive balance...and I don't see that happening within the forseeable future.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Oh well, haha. I gave it my best shot.

Getting Johan Santana doesn't make the Mets immediately a championship team BTW. He has never had the expectations in Minnesota that he now has in New York. We've seen plenty of players crumble under the bright lights of the Big Apple. I'm not saying he will, but i'm saying that he isn't a lock for the Cy Young like people are saying.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Boston over Mets in 6 games.

Sorry Johan.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Grabbed the February 8 roster (from the mod section) to see what BM would come up with: (20 simulations)

NY Yankees 99-63
Boston 90-72
Toronto 84-78
Baltimore 76-86
Tampa 73-89

* Looks a little optimistic for the O's. Otherwise looks alright.

Detroit 92-70
Cleveland 86-76
Kansas City 77-85
Minnesota 77-85
ChiSox 74-88

* Again, looks optimistic for KC, otherwise about right.

LA Angels 88-74
Seattle 76-86
Oakland 74-88
Texas 72-90

* Yep, everything I'm reading says LAA will run away with the West.

NY Mets 92-70
Philadelphia 86-76
Atlanta 86-76
Washington 74-88
Florida 70-92

* No real comments. I don't see Atlanta passing Philly this year. Next year maybe.

Chi Cubs 90-72
Pittsburgh 84-78
Cincinnati 82-80
Houston 76-86
St. Louis 74-87
Milwaukee 68-94

* Hm. Lots wrong here. I agree the Cubs are favorites to win the division again, but Pittsburgh 2nd? Milwaukee 6th? Hm.

San Diego 87-75
Colorado 85-77
Arizona 84-78
LA Dodgers 84-78
San Francisco 71-91

* ...possible. I don't see Colorado doing that well, but the Padres could pull it out. The NL West is a big toss up

Noll-Scully Rating: 1.27

2 Attachment(s)

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Quote:

Originally Posted by skudplayr

Oh well, haha. I gave it my best shot.

Getting Johan Santana doesn't make the Mets immediately a championship team BTW. He has never had the expectations in Minnesota that he now has in New York. We've seen plenty of players crumble under the bright lights of the Big Apple. I'm not saying he will, but i'm saying that he isn't a lock for the Cy Young like people are saying.

vegas disagrees, as the mets have twice as good of odds as the next best nl team (whom they deem to be lad) at +700 to win the series...for comparison, boston is +350, nyy is +550, & det is +650 (for those scoring at home, the rays & os have the worst odds at +20,000)

heres screenies showing odds of teams to take their leagues (not that i condone betting, just that vegas usually has an idea on whats up)

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Baseball players aren't moldy sacks that forget how to play baseball in New York. Especially superstars like Johan Santana. Players always have bad years, or suddenly drop off a cliff, or struggle for a time period. That happens in every city all the time. The difference is that when it happens in New York, the media and the fans like to say "the pressure got to him" when that is not necessarily the case. Every time a player has a bad year in New York, it doesn't mean he's a weak-willed fool. It could just mean he simply had a bad year.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

YANKEES in 2008!!! ALL THE WAY TO VICTORY!!!!!

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Here are Althon Sports' predictions.

AL East

Boston
New York (wc)
Toronto
Tampa
Baltimore

AL Central

Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnestoa
Kansas City

AL West

Los Anaheim (I'm sorry but the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim is dumb..)
Seattle
Texas
Oakland

MVP: David Ortiz, Cy Young: Justin Verlander, ROY: Jacoby Ellsbury

NL East

Philadelphia
Atlanta
New York
Washington
Florida

NL Central

Chicago
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Houston
St Louis
Pittsburgh

NL West

Arizona
Los Angeles (wc)
Colorado
San Diego
San Francisco

MVP: Ryan Howard, Cy Young: Brandon Webb, ROY: Kosuke Fukudome

ALCS: Boston over Detroit
NLCS: Arizona over Philadelphia

World Series: Boston over Arizona

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Quote:

Originally Posted by etothep

vegas disagrees, as the mets have twice as good of odds as the next best nl team (whom they deem to be lad) at +700 to win the series...for comparison, boston is +350, nyy is +550, & det is +650 (for those scoring at home, the rays & os have the worst odds at +20,000)

heres screenies showing odds of teams to take their leagues (not that i condone betting, just that vegas usually has an idea on whats up)

Yes, but vegas also factors in the amount of people who will bet for a particular team and try to even it the odds so its not an exact pick of who they think we will win...they have to hedge their bets

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Quote:

Originally Posted by yankee hater

How about we split this thread so people don't get confused by having 2 sets of predictions? We aren't really discussing Pecota in this thread.

Why aren't we?

As I recall my opening line was "What do you think will happen?" not "What do you think of this prediction?" We now have...five or six different predictions to talk about :)

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

I thin k the Dodgers' one is about right. Good team. They have graduated some of the young talent over the past few seasons with Martin gettinga full-time gig and large part time roles for Loney, Eithier, Billingsly and kemp. Now;s the time to allow for some of them at chance to shine. Let them succedd or fail.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Quote:

Originally Posted by yankee hater

How about we split this thread so people don't get confused by having 2 sets of predictions? We aren't really discussing Pecota in this thread.

Somebody else had posted their predictions before I posted the PECOTA ones. Somebody else posted predictions based on Baseball Mogul after I posted the PECOTA ones. Any reason why you didn't post this after skudplayr posted his predictions?

The title is "2008 MLB Predictions". I don't think it will confuse anybody when people post their own predictions in addition to the ones in the first post.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Quote:

Originally Posted by nuzzy62

Yes, but vegas also factors in the amount of people who will bet for a particular team and try to even it the odds so its not an exact pick of who they think we will win...they have to hedge their bets

youre missing a rather glaring point in your own post though, the fact that they may make the sox +350 instead of +400 only goes to show how many people actually think the sox will win it, with the same logic going for the mets in the post-santana trade & the yanks & tigers due to their lineups

again, i didnt say one way or the other who i think, or even care, will win the series or the pennants, but vegas usually makes a decent idea (if one doesnt go by anomalies such as the 07 rockies)

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

Quote:

Originally Posted by yankee hater

So the Pecota predictions are your own also? Just curious.

....

No. Sorry, since we're taking everything perfectly literally, let me rephrase that.

I don't think it will confuse anybody when people post other predictions in addition to the ones in the first post.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

I do think it's accurate and a very good projection system, but I disagree with some of its projections. I think both the Tigers and Indians will pass 90 wins. I think the A's will by far be the worst team in the AL West. I think the Phillies will do better than the Braves. I think the Giants will be worse than 72-90 by a longshot.

Re: 2008 MLB Predictions

I can only speak to the AL East....I've been predicting it'll take 93 victorys to win it, given Toronto's potentially scary pitching staff and Tampa Bay being better than ever. Those four teams are gonna beat each other up a lot.