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What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
http://sports.aol.com/mlb/story/_a/d...13155609990001
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Let’s start off by playing one of my favorite statistical games: Player A vs. Player B.
Player A: 38 HR, 115 RBI, .262/.377/.551 (AVG/OBP/SLG), 181 K
Player B: 39 HR, 103 RBI, .269/.387/.564 (AVG/OBP/SLG), 158 K
Just looking at the numbers it’s hard to tell these two players apart. They both hit for a ton of power, strike out a lot, but generally spend a lot of time on base and doing other assorted good things offensively.
Player A is reigning NL MVP, and favorite son in Philadelphia, Ryan Howard. Player B is Reds left fielder Adam Dunn, or, as many people in Cincinnati prefer to call him, the antichrist.
Dunn has taken heat about his high strikeout totals for years in the Queen City, but the fixation on all those whiffs is misguided. Dunn is an offensive asset, period, yet he’s often blamed for the Reds’ losing ways. Ryan Howard might shatter Dunn’s single-season strikeout record, but no one seems to care because Philadelphia is in contention.
The reality is this: both players have flaws but can be key pieces on a championship team. And, in the grander scheme of things, the strikeouts really don’t matter all that much.
Announcers can blather on about productive outs all they want, but all outs are created equal. There’s absolutely no correlation between high strikeout totals and run scoring. A 2004
study by Baseball Prospectus puts it better than I can:
"Sure, it might look bad -- not even being able to put the ball in play -- but the fact is that error rates, in this era of improved equipment, are as low as they’ve ever been. Granted, putting the ball in play, whether in the air or on the ground, can sometimes enable a hitter to advance a runner, but it also increases the chance of hitting into a double play -- a far greater rally-killer than a strikeout.”
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Announcers can blather on about productive outs all they want, but all outs are created equal. - UH no. Not even close. Who the **** writes this nonsense?
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
WATERY
Announcers can blather on about productive outs all they want, but all outs are created equal. - UH no. Not even close. Who the **** writes this nonsense?
I knew somebody was going to say that, which is completely not the point of the short article. I don't agree that all outs are created equal, but most (not all) of the time, a strikeout is no worse than any other kind of out. But again, the main point of this article is why is Adam Dunn so hated and Ryan Howard so loved, when they are extremely similar players?
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
I knew somebody was going to say that, which is completely not the point of the short article. I don't agree that all outs are created equal, but most (not all) of the time, a strikeout is no worse than any other kind of out. But again, the main point of this article is why is Adam Dunn so hated and Ryan Howard so loved, when they are extremely similar players?
different cities react differently to players, media is always biased in analysis of players, tons of reasons...
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
why is Adam Dunn so hated
Bobby Bonds would have loved him. Dunn broke his record. :)
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
Wassit3
different cities react differently to players, media is always biased in analysis of players, tons of reasons...
Mostly REAL reasons eg Times are different,teams are different ,heck the world is different. ;)
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Times are different--huh? We're not comparing a current player to someone from the 20's or 50's here; we're talking about to current players.
True, they do play in different cities, but interestingly, Phillie is usually considered a tougher town than Cincy. It may have to do with the fact that the Reds haven't really been in contention.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Also, just to be clear, I understand the outside influences that go into this. I'm just commenting on the fact that it's just really astonishing how blind to the facts people can be.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
It would help if the article only said they were statistically similar and treated differently and left it at that instead of trying to back it up with pure bs.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
The article explained why Dunn is actually not the bad player he is made out to be, and stated correctly that their high strikeout rate does not take away from their offensive ability.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
I once went to a game at RFK, it was Washington vs. Cincinnati. I had a sign that said "DUNN'S NUMBER ONE!!"
This guy in a Harang jersey yelled at me and called me a retard. He told me to sit down because I was blocking his view, but I said "You're a Reds fan, you should support your best hitter!" And he was like, "I can't support him if I can't see him, jackarse!" But I said, "There's a TV up there!" And he looked, and there was a TV, but that was all the distraction I needed to hit him with a big karate chop. Serves him right, too. I should have gone all ninja on that fool, but my ninja code prevents me from beating up on the very fat, on account of I might get grease on my hands and slip on someone's face the next time I'm punching them in it.
Then one of the five Nats fans who always go to Nats games so the stadium isn't totally empty said Dunn raped his sister one day with a baseball bat and laughed and then he spit in her eye while farting really loud. Turns out he's a real important sportswriter. I guess that explains why Adam Dunn gets so much media hate. I didn't believe that basterd though, so I threw my soda at him. Now I'm not allowed into RFK anymore. Good thing they have a new stadium next year! My goatee will be pretty bushy by then. He won't suspect the guy with the goatee to karate chop him right in the eye.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
One time I saw Adam Dunn at a furry convention. I was trying to infiltrate their culture "To Catch A Predator"-style with mixed results. I felt my hope and faith in humanity slipping away with each and every yiff. Adam Dunn came to a convention dressed in a deer suit, which definitely drew some attention with his 6 foot 7 frame and bipedal movement. I asked him about the deer suit, and he responded with a long-winded story about how Rob Deer is his idol and teacher, and could think of no other way to show respect than to strike out 230 times a year and dress up like a deer at furry conventions.
Obviously there's a complex psychological process going on in his head every time he steps to bat, but just because someone believes that the strike zone extends up into space (where Darren Daulton lives) doesn't make him a bad person. Being a furry, however, does.
So yeah, **** Adam Dunn and his anthromorphic tendencies.
http://www.brewersradionetwork.com/P...t/IMG_0341.JPG
Bob Uecker has no idea what's going on.
Also, what Biggles forgot to mention is that the guy in the Harang jersey was actually Aaron Harang, but he was wearing too much goth makeup to be recognizeable. Trust me, no one knows the pain his soul except maybe David Ross, who has to hear Cure lyrics every time he comes to the mound to discuss a pitch with Harang.
Harang : i know i'll never really get inside of you
to make your eyes catch fire
the way they should
the way the blue could pull me in
if they only would
Ross : Yeah, whatever, just throw some strikes, you're down 3-0 on Jeff Francoeur, who walks less than a paraplegic.
Harang : with aching looks and breaking hearts
and all the prayers your hands can make
oh i just take as much as you can throw
and then throw it all away
oh i throw it all away
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
dps
Times are different--huh? We're not comparing a current player to someone from the 20's or 50's here; we're talking about to current players.
True, they do play in different cities, but interestingly, Phillie is usually considered a tougher town than Cincy. It may have to do with the fact that the Reds haven't really been in contention.
Sorry,my error.However some cities are different & "pressure" & expectations do affect players & how they are seen.An Matsui in NYY is seen as a good player but if he was in Pittsburgh he would most probably seen as the "go to"/star guy.
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Also, just to be clear, I understand the outside influences that go into this. I'm just commenting on the fact that it's just really astonishing how blind to the facts people can be.
Facts are clear,however stats are not as clear cut,some are subjective some are objective.
In this comparison there are a "few" details lacking like COST of the player,their defense,their position in the line-up WHICH affects what a team expects from them too.
Also one has to consider EXPECTATIONS of fans & management , experience, "upside",How much they cost (if traded for) & "intangibles" such as clubhouse persona,community interaction.
The game is not just about numbers,but that is my opinion.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
I also find it weird that Houston is reversing his position on the K being overrated.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
FRENCHREDSOX
Facts are clear,however stats are not as clear cut,some are subjective some are objective.
In this comparison there are a "few" details lacking like COST of the player,their defense,their position in the line-up WHICH affects what a team expects from them too.
This is specifically talking about their offensive production which is exactly the same. They both offer nothing on defense. Cost doesn't matter. The point is Dunn is often seen as a weakness and Howard is hailed as some terrific slugger, when the reality is, they're both nearly identical hitters.
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The game is not just about numbers,but that is my opinion.
Like I said, I understand all the reasons why some players are hated, not hated, whatever. My point is that it's ridiculous to say one player is bad and another is good when they are, for all intents and purposes, identical.
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Originally Posted by WATERY
I also find it weird that Houston is reversing his position on the K being overrated.
What are you talking about?
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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This is specifically talking about their offensive production which is exactly the same. They both offer nothing on defense. Cost doesn't matter.
Interesting end point as Cost (both monetary & player wise) does have a factor on how a player is both valued & perceived both by management & fans.
Dunn 10.5 million,HIGHEST salary on the team,or 17.57% of the payroll budget.
Howard 0.9 million,20th salary on the team,or 0.88% of the payroll budget.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
FRENCHREDSOX
Interesting end point as Cost (both monetary & player wise) does have a factor on how a player is both valued & perceived both by management & fans.
Dunn 10.5 million,HIGHEST salary on the team,or 17.57% of the payroll budget.
Howard 0.9 million,20th salary on the team,or 0.88% of the payroll budget.
But cost has no factor in which player is a better hitter. Howard being overall more valuable because he is cost-effective is true. However, if somebody says Dunn is a bad hitter, they're hypocritical if they don't think the same for Howard, and vice versa. If they think Howard is a good hitter, they're being hypocritical if they don't think Dunn is a good hitter. We're not talking about actual value to the team, cost effectiveness, etc. Just purely looking at their offensive ability.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Post #3 in this thread:
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I knew somebody was going to say that, which is completely not the point of the short article. I don't agree that all outs are created equal, but most (not all) of the time, a strikeout is no worse than any other kind of out.
But again, the main point of this article is why is Adam Dunn so hated and Ryan Howard so loved, when they are extremely similar players?
which has been replied to several times (post #14) & reiterated here (post #18):
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Originally Posted by
FRENCHREDSOX
In this comparison there are a "few" details lacking like COST of the player,their defense,their position in the line-up WHICH affects what a team expects from them too.
Also one has to consider EXPECTATIONS of fans & management , experience, "upside",How much they cost (if traded for) & "intangibles" such as clubhouse persona,community interaction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FRENCHREDSOX
Interesting end point as Cost (both monetary & player wise) does have a factor on how a player is both valued & perceived both by management & fans.
Dunn 10.5 million,HIGHEST salary on the team,or 17.57% of the payroll budget.
Howard 0.9 million,20th salary on the team,or 0.88% of the payroll budget.
Wasn't that the point of getting an answer to post #3 ??
Which has nothing to do with this statement about "hitting ability" but perception & value as asked in the original post:
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But cost has no factor in which player is a better hitter. Howard being overall more valuable because he is cost-effective is true. However, if somebody says Dunn is a bad hitter, they're hypocritical if they don't think the same for Howard, and vice versa. If they think Howard is a good hitter, they're being hypocritical if they don't think Dunn is a good hitter. We're not talking about actual value to the team, cost effectiveness, etc. Just purely looking at their offensive ability.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
But cost has no factor in which player is a better hitter. Howard being overall more valuable because he is cost-effective is true. However, if somebody says Dunn is a bad hitter, they're hypocritical if they don't think the same for Howard, and vice versa. If they think Howard is a good hitter, they're being hypocritical if they don't think Dunn is a good hitter. We're not talking about actual value to the team, cost effectiveness, etc. Just purely looking at their offensive ability.
Houston, people actually do not see this. They think that Dunn is very expensive and low average guy. What is worse rally killer, striking out with men on base?
With Howard, his team actually is in contention. Enough said. It is more of a team feeling then an individual player thing.
If we look at Howard and Dunns best seasons in the MLB, you will see a difference.
Howard:
Code:
Howard: 2006
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
159 581 104 182 25 1 58 149 383 108 181 0 0 .425 .659 .313
Dunn: 2004
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 323 108 195 6 1 .388 .569 .266
As you see, they are completely different hitters when at there best. Sure they are having similar year this season. Overal, Howard is by far the better hitter. Maybe that has something to do with it. Also, I would understand your arguement houston if they had similar seasons every seasons...or even if last season was the same as this season...
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
To be a true comparative look at Howard's career :
Code:
Year TM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS AVG
2004 Phi 19 39 5 11 5 0 2 5 2 13 0 0 .333 .564 .897 .282
2005 Phi 88 312 52 90 17 2 22 63 33 100 0 1 .356 .567 .923 .288
2006 Phi 159 581 104 182 25 1 58 149 108 181 0 0 .425 .659 1.084 .313
2007 Phi 132 489 85 128 25 0 40 120 92 185 1 0 .378 .558 .936 .262
Career 398 1421 246 411 72 3 122 337 235 479 1 1 .392 .602 .994 .289
Dunn:
Code:
Year TM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS AVG
2001 Cin 66 244 54 64 18 1 19 43 38 74 4 2 .371 .578 .949 .262
2002 Cin 158 535 84 133 28 2 26 71 128 170 19 9 .400 .454 .854 .249
2003 Cin 116 381 70 82 12 1 27 57 74 126 8 2 .354 .465 .819 .215
2004 Cin 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 108 195 6 1 .388 .569 .957 .266
2005 Cin 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 114 168 4 2 .387 .540 .927 .247
2006 Cin 160 561 99 131 24 0 40 92 112 194 7 0 .365 .490 .855 .234
2007 Cin 147 510 100 136 27 2 39 105 95 162 9 2 .384 .557 .941 .267
Career 968 3342 619 831 178 8 237 571 669 1089 57 18 .380 .519 .899 .249
So Howard who earns 10 times less has almost .40 better BA & .95 better OPS career wise.
Management who "invest" 17.5% of total payroll also expect a better than average production & "Joe Soap",the fan,also perceives & "expect" a 10.5 million $ player differently from a league average (salary wise) player.
Which was the point of why Dunn is "hated" & Howard "loved" as one is over performing comparative to cost investment & the other "under-performing" relative to sunk-costs.Again,this is just MY OPINION,& maybe a Phillie or Reds fan could answer more on the subject.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FRENCHREDSOX
which has been replied to several times (post #14) & reiterated here (post #18):
Wasn't that the point of getting an answer to post #3 ??
Once again, please read and reply to my whole statements, rather than selecting part of a sentence and ignoring the rest.
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Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Like I said, I understand all the reasons why some players are hated, not hated, whatever. My point is that it's ridiculous to say one player is bad and another is good when they are, for all intents and purposes, identical.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
You know the argument's about done for when everyone starts quoting their own posts...
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by HoustonGM
Like I said, I understand all the reasons why some players are hated, not hated, whatever. My point is that it's ridiculous to say one player is bad and another is good when they are, for all intents and purposes, identical.
problem is that they are only have identical seasons this year. So I don't understand your point. Top OPS for Howard is: 1.084... TOP OPS for Dunn is 957.
And get this, Dunn is having a typical Dunn season, while Howard is having an off season. Do you see the difference. I can.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
Biggles
You know the argument's about done for when everyone starts quoting their own posts...
Not done yet buddy, you haven't qouted your own post yet. :)
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
Biggles
You know the argument's about done for when everyone starts quoting their own posts...
Now it's done.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
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Originally Posted by
boomboom
problem is that they are only have identical seasons this year. So I don't understand your point. Top OPS for Howard is: 1.084... TOP OPS for Dunn is 957.
And get this, Dunn is having a typical Dunn season, while Howard is having an off season. Do you see the difference. I can.
We can't say that Howard is having an "off season." He's had one and a half years. Due to his high strikeout rate, there's a strong chance that this season is more representative of his true ability than last. (A high batting average is hard to sustain with a high strikeout rate - NOT impossible, just not likely) His BABIP this season is .333 compared to .363 last year. He's not getting unlucky on balls in play or anything, so that doesn't explain his lower batting average. It's more than likely that he's more of a .260-.270 hitter than a .310 hitter.
I basically just don't think that Dunn is getting the credit he deserves, and also that his bad rap is very much tied into his high strikeout totals, while Howard has even higher strikeout totals and yet has no bad rap at all. The fact of the matter is both players are very good offensive players, yet they have wildly different offensive reputations, and undeservedly so.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
not underservely so, Howard has performed better then Dunn. Take there best seasons and go from there. Howard is having an off-season verses last year...and Dunn is having a normal Dunn season. Look at career numbers, and you will see the difference. Dunn has played longer, each season is the same...(kutos to him for that) while Howard has shown a higher ceiling. Howard has also won an MVP award.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Adam Dunn's reputation is not deserved. His reputation isn't that of a very productive offensive player, and it should be. He has a reputation as a bad offensive player for whatever reason. That's undeserved.
Basically, why do people put so much stock in Adam Dunn's strikeout totals, but don't also apply that to Ryan Howard? It doesn't matter that Howard's best season has been better than Dunn's best. If you're going to knock Adam Dunn becuase of his strikeouts, you also have to knock something off Howard for his.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
How about we reputation is deserved for what a player has done, verses what somebody elses has done. Howard is a top 5 MVP canidate each season now. He has had a bad year this year...but looking at splits for howard for last season...he played equally good last year during the first half as well as the 2nd half. So maybe he is having a bad season or off season. You can not explain 159 games as luck.
Code:
I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
Home 79 78 341 282 52 87 9 1 29 75 52 18 85 5 0 2 3 5 0 0 .309 .422 .656 1.078 .341 171 99 Home
Away 80 79 363 299 52 95 16 0 29 74 56 19 96 4 0 4 3 2 0 0 .318 .427 .662 1.089 .371 186 101 Away
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
One season isn't enough to say whether or not a player is having an "off year" the following year or not though. Was Eric Hinske's 2003 an "off year"? No...turns out it was actually closer to his true talent level than his rookie season.
Ryan Howard's rookie season is pretty much along the lines of what he's doing this year, except with lower walks and a higher average. Overall, they were very close, be it his rookie season was a small sample size. I don't think that Ryan Howard will ever approach his 2006 season. While he may be better than he's currently been in 2007, it's likely that 2007 (and 2005) are much more representative of his true talent level than 2006.
Both Dunn and Howard are excellent offensive players. There is absolutely no basis for saying that Dunn is a bad offensive player, as his reputation would indicate, while also saying that Howard is a good offensive player. The truth is that they are both good offensive players, while one of them has such a reputation.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
lets look at some more splits. If you look at 2005, and his 2nd half, you will notice that Howard was pretty much on the same level has 2006. Almost but not all the way there. If you look at the 1st half numbers, he didn't play that much...so anyway, I will post both of them. If you look at these numbers and then compare them to Dunns, Howard is the better player of the two. I am not saying Dunn is a bad player. I would love if my Home town team the Seattle Mariners would get him...and get rid of Sexson ;)
Code:
I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
1st Half 21 16 70 64 8 16 4 0 3 11 5 2 18 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 .250 .300 .453 .753 .295 98 64 1st Half
2nd Half 67 63 278 248 44 74 13 2 19 52 28 6 82 1 0 1 4 2 0 1 .298 .371 .597 .968 .372 156 110 2nd Half
Months
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Howard has been a better player than Adam Dunn has, overall, but the difference between the two is far less than their respective reputations would have you believe, which is the whole point really. They have wildly different reputations, while in truth, they're not that far apart. They have the almost exact same skill set - lots of walks, strikeouts, and home runs. Adam Dunn adds some level of baserunning and stolen base ability. Heck, they're even the same age - Dunn's just 10 days older.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
I finally read the article. I have never ever heard of Dunn being the reason why Cinci loses. So I am unsure where this reputation comes from.
Howard is better then Dunn, pretty much end of argument. We agree. About reputation...who cares?
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonGM
What are you talking about?
There was an is the k overrated thread and I believe you said the K wasn't for a bunch of reasons - now you're linking to an article which references the same reference which a poster in the thread referenced to prove the K was overrated.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WATERY
There was an is the k overrated thread and I believe you said the K wasn't for a bunch of reasons - now you're linking to an article which references the same reference which a poster in the thread referenced to prove the K was overrated.
You're mixing up pitcher strikeouts and batter strikeouts.
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
How can they be a good out for a pitcher, and just an average out for a hitter?
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
WATERY
How can they be a good out for a pitcher, and just an average out for a hitter?
Strikeouts correlate well with success for pitchers. Lack of strikeouts correlates well with a lack of success.
For hitters, the same is not true. Here's something to look out, the top and bottom 5 hitters in strikeouts, and the top and bottom 5 pitchers in strikeouts (batters that qualify for batting title, pitchers with at least 100 IP.)
5 Batters with Most K's:
Ryan Howard - 185
Adam Dunn - 162
Dan Uggla - 158
Mike Cameron - 152
Grady Sizemore - 145
5 Batters With Least Ks:
Placido Polanco - 26
Juan Pierre - 35
Jason Kendall - 39
Kenji Johjima - 40
Luis Castillo - 40
5 Pitchers with Most K's
Jake Peavy - 225
Erik Bedard - 221
Johan Santana - 220
Scott Kazmir - 220
C.C. Sabathia - 198
5 Pitchers with Least K's:
Kyle Kendrick - 41
Mike Bacsik - 43
Joe Kennedy - 46
Brad Thompson - 48
Mike Maroth - 48
Take from those lists what you will
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Re: What's the difference between Dunn and Howard?
I don't care about correlations. Either the K is just another out or it isn't.
